MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 4, 2023

[ Sunday, September 3, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 5, 2023 ]

DAY 339 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/05/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.78°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.052
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 539

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.21 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 246
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 54

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-05 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233395444.7600237.7799841.2700.209999999999920.329999999999921.351.6799999999999FF12.76002538.76002246464.35484077161 00.05207826854512616 13425240DRYM
2023-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20233395447.5737.0442.305000.121.351.47FF15.57541.57247464.8613494007800.0871445478622191613425240DRYM
2023-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20233395447.42636.15841.792000.121.351.47FF15.426541.426247464.8613494007800.0850009346635971613425240DRYM
2023-09-04 08:00:01FORECAST20233395448.2937.2242.755000.121.351.47FF16.29542.29247464.8613494007800.0984687390854951613425240DRYM
2023-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20233395450.66637.7644.213000.121.351.47FF18.666544.666247464.8613494007800.143366364200431613425240DRYM
2023-09-04 00:00:09FORECAST20233395450.01837.34643.68200.019685050.109685051.351.45968505FF18.018541.018246464.3548407716100.129942084320241613425240DRYM
2023-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20233395450.25237.81444.03300.019685050.079685051.351.42968505FF18.252542.252246464.3548407716100.134685993843581613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20233395450.25237.81444.03300.019685050.079685051.351.42968505FF18.252542.252246464.3548407716100.134685993843581613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20233395449.85638.08443.9700.007874020.067874021.351.41787402FF17.856541.856246464.3548407716100.126726183322731613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20233395450.1837.70643.943000.041.351.39FF18.18543.18246464.3548407716100.133213874573491613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20233395450.43238.69644.564000.031.351.38FF18.432543.432246464.3548407716100.138414854480511613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233395448.18236.96842.575000.081.351.43FF16.182535.182246464.3548407716100.0967048269878731613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20233395448.09237.32842.71000.091.351.44FF16.092534.092246464.3548407716100.0952526598381891613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20233395449.74838.51644.132000.011.351.36FF17.748537.748246464.3548407716100.124613194889391613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST20233395450.39638.24644.3210001.351.35FF18.396538.396246464.3548407716100.137663525374821613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20233395450.12638.2144.1680001.351.35FF18.126539.126246464.3548407716100.132117055711111613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:05FORECAST20233395451.45838.31844.8880001.351.35FF19.458541.458246464.3548407716100.161001476507341613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20233395450.97240.78445.87800.03937010.11937011.351.4693701FF18.972538.972246464.3548407716100.150019349650961613425240DRYM
2023-09-01 20:00:01FORECAST20233395449.62239.16444.39300.015748040.065748041.351.41574804FF17.622536.622246464.3548407716100.122179225988811613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20233395450.4540.04645.248000.021.351.37FF18.45535.45246464.3548407716100.138791562092751613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20233395451.6239.77645.6980001.351.35FF19.62535.62246464.3548407716100.164775640918741613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20233395451.09840.02845.56300.015748040.035748041.351.38574804FF19.098535.098246464.3548407716100.152817552377341613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 04:00:04FORECAST20233395451.54838.82245.185000.031.351.38FF19.548533.548246464.3548407716100.163091232416841613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20233395452.9741.48647.228000.191.011.2FF20.97536.97246464.3548407716100.19842206411581613425240DRYM
2023-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20233395452.80841.97247.39000.240.931.17FF20.808535.808246464.3548407716100.194179036556451613425240DRYM
2023-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20233395451.83638.89445.365000.410.931.34FF19.836531.836246464.3548407716100.169896045273661613425240DRYM
2023-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20233395449.56838.98444.27600.007874020.527874020.931.45787402FF17.568529.568246464.3548407716100.121146350127431613435260DRYH
2023-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20233395449.29838.01243.655000.520.941.46FF17.298525.298246464.3548407716100.116073847877671613435260DRYH
2023-08-31 04:00:05FORECAST20233395446.54436.44641.49500.224409570.664409571.031.69440957FF14.544520.544246464.3548407716100.0727229508895811613435260DRYH
2023-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20233395444.25837.18440.72100.27559070.49559070.761.2555907FF12.258524.258246464.3548407716100.0471956245774221613435260DRYH
2023-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20233395446.54438.01242.27800.271653690.491653690.731.22165369FF14.544532.544246464.3548407716100.0727229508895811613435260DRYH
2023-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20233395444.29435.31239.80300.137795350.327795351.161.48779535FF12.294525.294246464.3548407716100.0475331262874731613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20233395446.34636.80641.57600.007874020.197874021.141.33787402FF14.346531.346246464.3548407716100.0701625515215791613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20233395448.27237.86843.0700.007874020.197874021.21.39787402FF16.272526.272246464.3548407716100.0981731344465321613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 04:00:06FORECAST20233395447.3936.89642.143000.171.361.53FF15.39524.39246464.3548407716100.0844712381092471613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20233395446.61637.79642.20600.062992160.182992160.981.16299216FF14.616528.616246464.3548407716100.0736714797349851613425240DRYM
2023-08-29 16:00:03FORECAST20233395449.11837.27443.19600.007874020.017874020.760.77787402FF17.118527.118246464.3548407716100.112776797841171613415220DRYL
2023-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20233395448.54237.6743.10600.141732360.141732360.790.93173236FF16.542521.542246464.3548407716100.102675604817081613425240DRYM
2023-08-29 08:00:04FORECAST20233395448.77638.44443.6100.106299270.106299271.211.31629927FF16.776525.776246464.3548407716100.106697186461171613425240DRYM
2023-08-29 04:00:09FORECAST20233395445.33834.59239.965000.230.821.05FF13.338518.338246464.3548407716100.0581858039393771613425240DRYM
2023-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20233395446.59835.97841.28800.055118140.545118140.671.21511814FF14.598512.598246464.3548407716100.0734334684887851613435260DRYH
2023-08-28 20:00:04FORECAST20233395445.53638.15641.84600.074803190.574803190.591.16480319FF13.536512.536246464.3548407716100.060402496070081613435260DRYH
2023-08-28 16:00:04FORECAST20233395443.7937.34640.56800.255905650.665905650.761.42590565FF11.79499.79246464.3548407716100.0429800461771371613435260DRYH
2023-08-28 12:00:04FORECAST20233395449.06438.5743.817000.191.331.52FF17.064517.064246464.3548407716100.111800808205341613425240DRYM
2023-08-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233395451.29640.83846.06700.251968640.251968641.561.81196864FF19.296520.296246464.3548407716100.157284040657651613425240DRYM
2023-08-28 04:00:07FORECAST20233395451.29640.83846.06700.251968640.251968641.561.81196864FF19.296520.296246464.3548407716100.157284040657651613425240DRYM
2023-08-28 00:00:05FORECAST20233395451.29640.83846.06700.251968640.251968641.561.81196864FF19.296517.296246464.3548407716100.157284040657651613425240DRYM
2023-08-27 20:00:04FORECAST20233395451.29640.83846.06700.251968640.251968641.561.81196864FF19.296518.296246464.3548407716100.157284040657651613425240DRYM
2023-08-27 16:00:03FORECAST20233395455.7643.86249.81100.185039470.185039471.571.75503947FF23.76526.76246464.3548407716100.279831618774041623425245DRYM
2023-08-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233395453.47442.02647.75000.030.620.65FF21.474536.474246464.3548407716100.21197514521811613415220DRYL
2023-08-27 08:00:04FORECAST20233395451.8941.8146.85000.040.640.68FF19.89532.89246464.3548407716100.171191879104031613415220DRYL
2023-08-27 04:00:09FORECAST20233395453.643.748.6500.110236280.220236280.420.64023628FF21.6540.6246464.3548407716100.215445983066851613425240DRYM
2023-08-27 00:00:04FORECAST20233395452.10642.90847.50700.086614220.316614220.380.69661422FF20.106525.106246464.3548407716100.176438049146841613425240DRYM
2023-08-26 20:00:04FORECAST20233395452.742.847.7500.090551230.320551230.380.70055123FF20.7528.7246464.3548407716100.191381231419291613425240DRYM
2023-08-26 16:32:23FORECAST20233395452.66444.49248.57800.074803190.214803190.320.53480319FF20.664528.664246464.3548407716100.190454134952691613425240DRYM
2023-08-26 12:30:46FORECAST20233395459.48643.5251.5030000.640.64FF27.486550.486246464.3548407716100.408680996987651623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-26 08:30:00FORECAST20233395458.69442.76450.7290000.580.58FF26.694556.694246464.3548407716100.379861760890051623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-26 04:43:56FORECAST20233395453.63642.99848.3170000.630.63FF21.636544.636246464.3548407716100.216443661614751613415220DRYL
2023-08-26 00:26:00FORECAST20233395453.83450.50452.1690000.250.25FF21.834549.834246464.3548407716100.221978379529281613415220DRYL
2023-08-25 16:00:06FORECAST20233395454.6841.84648.2630000.080.08FF22.68553.68246464.3548407716100.246514692187471613415220DRYL
2023-08-25 12:00:04FORECAST20233395457.41654.53655.976000.020.150.17FF25.416570.416246464.3548407716100.334793750220531623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-25 08:00:05FORECAST20233395457.39854.53655.9670000.240.24FF25.398566.398246464.3548407716100.334173909724531623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-25 04:00:07FORECAST20233395450.949.65850.279000.070.220.29FF18.9553.9246464.3548407716100.148435769553491613415220DRYL