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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 3, 2023

[ Saturday, September 2, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, September 4, 2023 ]

DAY 338 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/04/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.377
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 568

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 245
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 463.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 53

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-04 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233385356.9899445.1299251.0599300.120.121.351.47FF24.98994567.98994245463.84640374802 00.3766031934518516 23425245DRYM
2023-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20233385353.74444.4249.08200.086614220.086614221.351.43661422FF21.744564.744246464.3548407716100.267734442480111623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:01FORECAST20233385355.00445.62650.31500.059055150.059055151.351.40905515FF23.004566.004246464.3548407716100.308122938620441623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20233385355.7644.79850.27900.043307110.043307111.351.39330711FF23.76566.76246464.3548407716100.333568574585371623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20233385355.56245.42850.49500.031496080.031496081.351.38149608FF23.562566.562246464.3548407716100.326823670741821623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20233385354.06843.26848.66800.07874020.07874021.351.4287402FF22.068561.068245463.8464037480200.277861296037751623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20233385353.38443.91648.6500.086614220.086614221.351.43661422FF21.384560.384245463.8464037480200.256704504589771623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20233385354.82445.73450.27900.007874020.007874021.351.35787402FF22.824561.824245463.8464037480200.302192067021521623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20233385355.11246.09450.6030001.351.35FF23.112562.112245463.8464037480200.311705776781151623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:01FORECAST20233385355.1345.84250.4860001.351.35FF23.13563.13245463.8464037480200.312304664111161623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:05FORECAST20233385355.4945.37450.4320001.351.35FF23.49564.49245463.8464037480200.324384784649641623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20233385355.81446.36451.08900.082677210.082677211.351.43267721FF23.814561.814245463.8464037480200.335417579988541623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 20:00:01FORECAST20233385355.43645.6850.55800.051181130.051181131.351.40118113FF23.436561.436245463.8464037480200.322560540119721623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 16:00:02FORECAST20233385353.56445.60849.58600.019685050.019685051.351.36968505FF21.564558.564245463.8464037480200.262189795421851623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20233385353.88845.53649.7120001.351.35FF21.888557.888245463.8464037480200.272212253682591623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20233385354.3245.62649.973000.021.351.37FF22.32558.32245463.8464037480200.28586473766141623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 04:00:04FORECAST20233385353.02445.01449.01900.031496080.031496081.351.38149608FF21.024556.024245463.8464037480200.245915606589321613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20233385352.21445.33848.77600.122047310.192047311.011.20204731FF20.214558.214245463.8464037480200.222555872107811613425240DRYM
2023-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20233385352.39446.07649.23500.125984320.235984320.931.16598432FF20.394557.394245463.8464037480200.227635041132061613425240DRYM
2023-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20233385351.29643.37647.33600.342519870.412519870.931.34251987FF19.296554.296245463.8464037480200.197676742607781613425240DRYM
2023-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20233385350.66643.57447.1200.468504190.518504190.931.44850419FF18.666553.666245463.8464037480200.181616324594321613435260DRYH
2023-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20233385350.25242.2646.25600.448819140.518819140.941.45881914FF18.252550.252245463.8464037480200.171519470940571613435260DRYH
2023-08-31 04:00:05FORECAST20233385349.87442.11645.99500.377952960.437952961.031.46795296FF17.874547.874245463.8464037480200.162619542258591613425240DRYM
2023-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20233385349.26241.50445.38300.173228440.223228440.760.98322844FF17.262554.262245463.8464037480200.148857362589681613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20233385350.10842.02646.06700.15748040.21748040.730.9474804FF18.108560.108245463.8464037480200.168093059649271613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20233385349.5540.40644.97800.192913490.202913491.151.35291349FF17.55554.55245463.8464037480200.155233983466441613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20233385350.84640.53245.68900.185039470.195039471.131.32503947FF18.846558.846245463.8464037480200.186119683987951613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20233385350.6341.77446.20200.185039470.225039471.161.38503947FF18.63551.63245463.8464037480200.180723884296271613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 04:00:06FORECAST20233385350.9939.79445.39200.169291430.219291431.311.52929143FF18.99550.99245463.8464037480200.189771640820211613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20233385351.49442.33246.91300.11811030.11811030.981.0981103FF19.494556.494245463.8464037480200.202896040145541613425240DRYM
2023-08-29 16:00:03FORECAST20233385350.55840.0145.28400.011811030.011811030.760.77181103FF18.558551.558245463.8464037480200.178947249663281613415220DRYL
2023-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20233385349.49640.76645.1310000.790.79FF17.496547.496245463.8464037480200.154024870420251613415220DRYL
2023-08-29 08:00:04FORECAST2023338535041.10845.554000.071.141.21FF18551245463.8464037480200.165552289586881613415220DRYL
2023-08-29 04:00:08FORECAST20233385348.63237.43643.03400.133858340.243858340.811.05385834FF16.632546.632245463.8464037480200.135524849479731613425240DRYM
2023-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20233385348.18240.29844.2400.409449040.489449040.671.15944904FF16.182540.182245463.8464037480200.126516447690831613425240DRYM
2023-08-28 20:00:04FORECAST20233385347.6641.14444.40200.417323060.497323060.591.08732306FF15.66540.66245463.8464037480200.116598231701591613435260DRYH
2023-08-28 16:00:04FORECAST20233385347.64242.22444.93300.31496080.41496080.761.1749608FF15.642529.642245463.8464037480200.116266315904411613425240DRYM
2023-08-28 12:00:04FORECAST20233385352.39445.03248.71300.125984320.185984321.331.51598432FF20.394542.394245463.8464037480200.227635041132061613425240DRYM
2023-08-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233385355.77841.32448.551000.191.371.56FF23.778542.778245463.8464037480200.334184463712311623425245DRYM
2023-08-28 04:00:07FORECAST20233385355.77841.32448.551000.191.371.56FF23.778542.778245463.8464037480200.334184463712311623425245DRYM
2023-08-28 00:00:04FORECAST20233385355.77841.32448.551000.191.371.56FF23.778539.778245463.8464037480200.334184463712311623425245DRYM
2023-08-27 20:00:04FORECAST20233385355.77841.32448.551000.191.371.56FF23.778540.778245463.8464037480200.334184463712311623425245DRYM
2023-08-27 16:00:03FORECAST20233385357.21841.46849.343000.151.421.57FF25.218545.218245463.8464037480200.384773570000531623425245DRYM
2023-08-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233385359.64845.39252.52000.150.50.65FF27.648556.648245463.8464037480200.474306374780061623425245DRYM
2023-08-27 08:00:04FORECAST20233385358.4644.2451.35000.160.520.68FF26.46555.46245463.8464037480200.430080637601131623425245DRYM
2023-08-27 04:00:09FORECAST20233385364.450.41457.40700.110236280.110236280.420.53023628FF32.4561.4245463.8464037480200.648929562792821633425250DRYMH
2023-08-27 00:00:04FORECAST20233385359.34247.6653.50100.125984320.265984320.340.60598432FF27.342547.342245463.8464037480200.462862291325951623425245DRYM
2023-08-26 20:00:04FORECAST20233385360.27847.78654.03200.137795350.267795350.340.60779535FF28.278550.278245463.8464037480200.49792408785061623425245DRYM
2023-08-26 16:28:18FORECAST20233385363.42850.28856.85800.137795350.137795350.320.45779535FF31.428550.428245463.8464037480200.614483439651441633425250DRYMH
2023-08-26 12:27:25FORECAST20233385365.67852.6159.1440000.640.64FF33.678564.678245463.8464037480200.692384268882111633415225DRYL
2023-08-26 08:26:46FORECAST20233385365.69652.77259.2340000.580.58FF33.696571.696245463.8464037480200.692979217830321633415225DRYL
2023-08-26 04:41:12FORECAST20233385366.99250.77458.8830000.630.63FF34.992564.992245463.8464037480200.734408241573151643415227.5DRYL
2023-08-26 00:20:47FORECAST20233385364.54451.33257.9380000.250.25FF32.544569.544245463.8464037480200.653937971566881633415225DRYL
2023-08-25 16:00:06FORECAST20233385360.49445.73453.1140000.080.08FF28.494573.494245463.8464037480200.506027446400781633415225DRYL
2023-08-25 12:00:04FORECAST20233385368.28854.62661.45700.019685050.019685050.150.16968505FF36.288587.288245463.8464037480200.772800151289081643415155DRYH
2023-08-25 08:00:04FORECAST20233385368.41455.0461.7270000.240.24FF36.414583.414245463.8464037480200.776358519087091643415155DRYH
2023-08-25 04:00:07FORECAST20233385369.74651.51260.62900.070866180.070866180.220.29086618FF37.746576.746245463.8464037480200.811992165540361643415155DRYH
2023-08-25 00:00:04FORECAST20233385357.72250.93654.3290000.080.08FF25.722568.722245463.8464037480200.403007265162651623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-24 20:00:04FORECAST20233385357.59650.97254.2840000.130.13FF25.596573.596245463.8464037480200.398427329541381623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-24 16:00:04FORECAST20233385358.58647.24652.9160000.430.43FF26.586564.586245463.8464037480200.434739704198751623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233385350.3647.3948.875000.070.410.48FF18.36564.36245463.8464037480200.174118287107291613415220DRYL
2023-08-24 08:00:03FORECAST20233385351.5349.11850.324000.070.450.52FF19.53547.53245463.8464037480200.203853752486471613415220DRYL
2023-08-24 04:00:09FORECAST20233385354.71653.76254.2390000.270.27FF22.716565.716245463.8464037480200.298658301014551623415222.5DRYL