Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 28, 2023

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DAY 363 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/29/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.73°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.29°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.51°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.053 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 358 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.57 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.18 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.93 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.11 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 270 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.00 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 78 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 87.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-29 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2023	363	78	36.73004	34.28996	35.51	0	0.56999999999994	3.1799999999999	2.93	6.1099999999999	T	T	4.73004	357.73004	270	475.99528780031	0	0.052677477705139	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.804	32.468	35.636	0	0.23228359	2.84228359	2.93	5.77228359	T	T	6.804	359.804	271	476.45764666845	0	0.075046765697915	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	363	78	37.526	30.074	33.8	0	0.31889781	2.92889781	2.93	5.85889781	T	T	5.526	358.526	271	476.45764666845	0	0.060541972294581	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.876	32	35.438	0	0.29921276	2.90921276	2.93	5.83921276	T	T	6.876	359.876	271	476.45764666845	0	0.075936446192465	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.686	33.908	36.797	0	0.30708678	2.91708678	2.93	5.84708678	T	T	7.686	360.686	271	476.45764666845	0	0.086503617238258	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	363	78	40.028	32.252	36.14	0	0.24803163	2.87803163	2.93	5.80803163	T	T	8.028	360.028	270	475.99528780031	0	0.091280521201925	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.632	32.81	36.221	0	0.2362206	2.7562206	2.93	5.6862206	T	T	7.632	360.632	270	475.99528780031	0	0.085766716558174	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.11	32.72	35.915	0	0.31889781	2.83889781	2.93	5.76889781	T	T	7.11	360.11	270	475.99528780031	0	0.078883213382659	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	40.298	32.612	36.455	0	0.25590565	2.77590565	2.93	5.70590565	T	T	8.298	361.298	270	475.99528780031	0	0.095187344030186	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.3	33.08	35.69	0	0.25590565	2.49590565	2.93	5.42590565	T	F	6.3	359.3	270	475.99528780031	0	0.069039382248833	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-27 04:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.326	33.386	36.356	0	0.22047256	2.34047256	2.93	5.27047256	T	F	7.326	360.326	270	475.99528780031	0	0.081679187395707	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.92	33.692	36.806	0	0.29921276	2.24921276	2.93	5.17921276	T	F	7.92	361.92	270	475.99528780031	0	0.089751420611598	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.236	34.52	36.878	0	0.2755907	2.3755907	2.93	5.3055907	T	F	7.236	361.236	270	475.99528780031	0	0.080505281441893	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.146	32.306	35.726	0	0.26377967	2.16377967	2.93	5.09377967	T	F	7.146	361.146	270	475.99528780031	0	0.079344122808261	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.434	33.044	36.239	0	0.20866153	1.91866153	2.93	4.84866153	T	F	7.434	362.434	270	475.99528780031	0	0.083104795657554	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	40.352	33.53	36.941	0	0.22047256	1.83047256	2.93	4.76047256	T	F	8.352	364.352	270	475.99528780031	0	0.095983221765834	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	40.01	33.584	36.797	0	0.25984266	2.02984266	2.93	4.95984266	T	F	8.01	363.01	270	475.99528780031	0	0.091024342970852	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.92	32.918	36.419	0	0.42126007	2.14126007	2.5	4.64126007	T	F	7.92	364.92	270	475.99528780031	0	0.089751420611598	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	40.172	32.954	36.563	0	0.40944904	2.13944904	2.71	4.84944904	T	F	8.172	366.172	270	475.99528780031	0	0.093349152431613	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.92	33.62	36.77	0	0.44094512	1.99094512	2.71	4.70094512	T	F	7.92	365.92	270	475.99528780031	0	0.089751420611598	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.326	32.99	36.158	0	0.36614193	2.24614193	2.71	4.95614193	T	F	7.326	365.326	270	475.99528780031	0	0.081679187395707	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.66	32.36	35.51	0	0.34645688	2.36645688	2.75	5.11645688	T	F	6.66	361.66	270	475.99528780031	0	0.073291202185192	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	363	78	37.886	32.054	34.97	0	0.38582698	2.32582698	2.72	5.04582698	T	F	5.886	359.886	270	475.99528780031	0	0.064386911206799	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.614	32.198	35.906	0	0.29133874	1.56133874	2.16	3.72133874	T	F	7.614	361.614	270	475.99528780031	0	0.085522126643504	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.75	31.568	35.159	0	0.26771668	1.63771668	2.37	4.00771668	T	F	6.75	360.75	270	475.99528780031	0	0.074384721041735	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.884	35.006	37.445	0	0.25984266	1.74984266	2.36	4.10984266	T	F	7.884	366.884	270	475.99528780031	0	0.089245961402954	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	40.226	34.754	37.49	0	0.47637821	1.92637821	2.58	4.50637821	T	F	8.226	369.226	270	475.99528780031	0	0.09413372269528	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.948	33.692	36.32	0	0.48818924	2.03818924	2.36	4.39818924	T	F	6.948	365.948	270	475.99528780031	0	0.076834107757334	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	363	78	40.118	32.486	36.302	0	0.38976399	2.12976399	2.39	4.51976399	T	F	8.118	363.118	270	475.99528780031	0	0.092569407498056	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	363	78	36.842	29.012	32.927	0	0.2362206	2.1862206	2.11	4.2962206	T	F	4.842	354.842	270	475.99528780031	0	0.05373218063372	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	37.076	30.704	33.89	0	0.22440957	2.33440957	2.22	4.55440957	T	F	5.076	359.076	270	475.99528780031	0	0.055990328946472	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.318	31.856	35.087	0	0.24015761	2.36015761	2.12	4.48015761	T	F	6.318	363.318	270	475.99528780031	0	0.069247372232961	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.192	32.9	35.546	0	0.18110246	1.96110246	2.18	4.14110246	T	F	6.192	364.192	270	475.99528780031	0	0.067801504559251	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.534	33.656	36.095	0	0.19291349	1.94291349	2.06	4.00291349	T	F	6.534	366.534	270	475.99528780031	0	0.071780921184204	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	363	78	37.832	32.594	35.213	0	0.04330711	2.05330711	2.15	4.20330711	T	F	5.832	358.832	270	475.99528780031	0	0.063798405999771	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.578	31.55	35.564	0	0.13385834	2.74385834	2.16	4.90385834	T	F	7.578	357.578	270	475.99528780031	0	0.085034509211503	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-22 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	363	78	41	33.08	37.04	0	0.14173236	2.77173236	2.19	4.96173236	T	F	9	363	270	475.99528780031	0	0.10591668132432	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-22 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	38.318	32.648	35.483	0	0.31102379	2.29102379	2.01	4.30102379	T	F	6.318	358.318	270	475.99528780031	0	0.069247372232961	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	41.144	33.332	37.238	0	0.17716545	1.82716545	1.59	3.41716545	T	F	9.144	364.144	270	475.99528780031	0	0.10822126363296	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	41.126	33.404	37.265	0	0.21259854	1.90259854	1.87	3.77259854	T	F	9.126	365.126	270	475.99528780031	0	0.10793123923567	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-22 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	363	78	41.486	34.142	37.814	0	0.03149608	1.72149608	1.89	3.61149608	T	F	9.486	358.486	270	475.99528780031	0	0.11383829106882	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	41.54	33.998	37.769	0	0.20472452	1.87472452	1.61	3.48472452	T	F	9.54	378.54	270	475.99528780031	0	0.11474378638845	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 20:00:09	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.866	32.036	35.951	0	0.19291349	1.89291349	1.67	3.56291349	T	F	7.866	360.866	270	475.99528780031	0	0.088994024791514	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.884	33.638	36.761	0	0.57086645	2.56086645	1.58	4.14086645	T	F	7.884	363.884	270	475.99528780031	0	0.089245961402954	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	39.938	32.558	36.248	0	0.79133901	2.79133901	1.14	3.93133901	T	F	7.938	363.938	270	475.99528780031	0	0.090004944187063	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	41.504	33.386	37.445	0	0.75196891	2.74196891	1.17	3.91196891	T	F	9.504	369.504	270	475.99528780031	0	0.11413955707849	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	363	78	40.802	35.726	38.264	0	0.9448824	2.9048824	1.41	4.3148824	T	F	8.802	372.802	270	475.99528780031	0	0.10280591119408	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	40.748	35.366	38.057	0	0.9842525	2.2342525	1.12	3.3542525	T	F	8.748	385.748	270	475.99528780031	0	0.10196912074146	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	41.54	35.546	38.543	0	0.97244147	2.17244147	0.98	3.15244147	T	F	9.54	388.54	270	475.99528780031	0	0.11474378638845	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	43.628	35.384	39.506	0	0.74409489	1.44409489	1.46	2.90409489	F	F	11.628	384.628	270	475.99528780031	0	0.1537314329957	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-20 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	43.88	34.61	39.245	0	0.83464612	2.81464612	1.55	4.36464612	T	F	11.88	378.88	270	475.99528780031	0	0.15896816618156	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	44.204	34.754	39.479	0	0.75590592	2.42590592	1.47	3.89590592	T	F	12.204	384.204	270	475.99528780031	0	0.16587042067119	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	363	78	47.03	37.292	42.161	0	0.62598459	2.23598459	1.13	3.36598459	T	F	15.03	386.03	270	475.99528780031	0	0.23403039819036	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	43.34	34.034	38.687	0	0.08267721	1.32267721	1.11	2.43267721	F	F	11.34	386.34	270	475.99528780031	0	0.14788763467185	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-19 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	44.528	34.448	39.488	0	0.09842525	1.53842525	1.14	2.67842525	F	F	12.528	388.528	270	475.99528780031	0	0.17296297201411	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	42.566	33.89	38.228	0	0.25984266	2.00984266	0.63	2.63984266	F	F	10.566	398.566	270	475.99528780031	0	0.13292551577451	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	363	78	60.404	37.868	49.136	0	0.1574804	1.0074804	0.43	1.4374804	F	F	28.404	429.404	270	475.99528780031	0	0.667581427558	16	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	363	78	58.262	36.842	47.552	0	0.10236226	0.89236226	0.43	1.32236226	F	F	26.262	428.262	270	475.99528780031	0	0.59779337068179	16	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	363	78	44.384	34.412	39.398	0	0.35826791	0.99826791	0.27	1.26826791	F	F	12.384	423.384	270	475.99528780031	0	0.16978725728924	16	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	44.366	38.678	41.522	0	0	0.12	0.16	0.28	F	F	12.366	449.366	270	475.99528780031	0	0.16939293216134	16	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-09-18 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	363	78	43.61	35.294	39.452	0	0	0.08	0.37	0.45	F	F	11.61	434.61	270	475.99528780031	0	0.15336178950507	16	1	4	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-09-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	363	78	47.48	39.29	43.385	0	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	15.48	440.48	270	475.99528780031	0	0.24615558487312	16	1	4	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-09-18 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	363	78	41.702	38.3	40.001	0	0.20866153	0.20866153	0.17	0.37866153	F	F	9.702	457.702	270	475.99528780031	0	0.11749088689241	16	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-09-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	363	78	45.176	40.856	43.016	0	0.20866153	0.20866153	0.18	0.38866153	F	F	13.176	460.176	270	475.99528780031	0	0.18771671835322	16	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-09-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	363	78	42.584	42.134	42.359	0	0	0	0.58	0.58	F	F	10.584	446.584	270	475.99528780031	0	0.13326122075859	16	1	4	3	1	5	2	20	DRY	L