Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 27, 2023

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DAY 362 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/28/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.15°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.35°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.089 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 388 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 2.04 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.98 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.56 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.54 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 269 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 475.53 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 77 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 87.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-28 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2023	362	77	38.55002	32.14994	35.34998	0	2.0400000000001	3.9800000000001	1.56	5.5400000000001	T	T	6.55002	387.55002	269	475.53116862601	0	0.088525401185892	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	362	77	38.462	32.558	35.51	0	2.06299324	4.00299324	1.56	5.56299324	T	T	6.462	387.462	270	475.99528780031	0	0.087353864841874	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	38.822	32.882	35.852	0	1.95275696	3.89275696	1.56	5.45275696	T	T	6.822	387.822	270	475.99528780031	0	0.092219109675088	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	362	77	38.624	31.874	35.249	0	1.66929224	3.60929224	1.56	5.16929224	T	T	6.624	387.624	270	475.99528780031	0	0.089519056516744	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 04:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.074	31.91	35.492	0	1.54724493	3.48724493	1.56	5.04724493	T	T	7.074	388.074	270	475.99528780031	0	0.095741826419247	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.064	32.198	36.131	0	1.28740227	3.31740227	1.56	4.87740227	T	F	8.064	389.064	269	475.53116862601	0	0.11053651067908	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.434	32.666	36.05	0	1.27165423	3.47165423	1.56	5.03165423	T	T	7.434	389.434	269	475.53116862601	0	0.10094398700492	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.344	33.26	36.302	0	1.07086672	3.27086672	1.56	4.83086672	T	F	7.344	389.344	269	475.53116862601	0	0.099624587297933	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.064	33.89	36.977	0	0.87795323	3.07795323	1.56	4.63795323	T	F	8.064	390.064	269	475.53116862601	0	0.11053651067908	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.946	34.304	37.625	0	0.83858313	2.97858313	1.56	4.53858313	T	F	8.946	390.946	269	475.53116862601	0	0.12503446217136	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.55	34.052	37.301	0	0.92126034	3.14126034	1.56	4.70126034	T	F	8.55	389.55	269	475.53116862601	0	0.11836919298199	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.118	34.052	37.085	0	1.11811084	2.65811084	1.56	4.21811084	T	F	8.118	392.118	269	475.53116862601	0	0.11138805363937	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.622	34.952	37.787	0	1.12204785	2.88204785	1.56	4.44204785	T	F	8.622	392.622	269	475.53116862601	0	0.11956205511851	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.928	34.862	37.895	0	0.96456745	2.70456745	1.56	4.26456745	T	F	8.928	392.928	269	475.53116862601	0	0.12472593799057	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.766	33.332	37.049	0	1.29527629	3.02527629	1.56	4.58527629	T	F	8.766	392.766	269	475.53116862601	0	0.12197308028572	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.992	32.936	36.464	0	1.36220546	3.21220546	1.56	4.77220546	T	F	7.992	389.992	269	475.53116862601	0	0.10940837034122	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.614	32.882	36.248	0	1.32283536	3.10283536	1.56	4.66283536	T	F	7.614	388.614	269	475.53116862601	0	0.10362078645836	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.326	33.404	36.365	0	0.78346499	2.40346499	1.03	3.43346499	T	F	7.326	389.326	269	475.53116862601	0	0.099362221450853	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	38.444	33.242	35.843	0	0.80315004	2.45315004	1.29	3.74315004	T	F	6.444	389.444	269	475.53116862601	0	0.0871157139998	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.514	34.664	37.589	0	0.80708705	2.55708705	1.29	3.84708705	T	F	8.514	393.514	269	475.53116862601	0	0.11777591736315	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	41.18	34.934	38.057	0	0.95669343	2.73669343	1.29	4.02669343	T	F	9.18	396.18	269	475.53116862601	0	0.1290936792915	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.586	34.322	37.454	0	1.05905569	2.67905569	1.23	3.90905569	T	F	8.586	393.586	269	475.53116862601	0	0.11896457153903	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.974	33.386	36.68	0	1.30708732	2.82708732	1.3	4.12708732	T	F	7.974	389.974	269	475.53116862601	0	0.10912762785666	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	37.706	31.856	34.781	0	1.24015815	2.91015815	1.15	4.06015815	T	F	5.706	384.706	269	475.53116862601	0	0.077762628095483	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	38.894	33.242	36.068	0	1.2992133	3.0892133	1.24	4.3292133	T	F	6.894	388.894	269	475.53116862601	0	0.093215697374676	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	38.984	34.25	36.617	0	1.32283536	2.98283536	1.26	4.24283536	T	F	6.984	391.984	269	475.53116862601	0	0.094472557305895	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.272	34.826	37.049	0	1.0236226	2.7336226	1.23	3.9636226	T	F	7.272	393.272	269	475.53116862601	0	0.098578145320773	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.776	35.582	37.679	0	1.05905569	2.72905569	1.08	3.80905569	T	F	7.776	394.776	269	475.53116862601	0	0.1060734718278	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-23 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	362	77	38.048	33.098	35.573	0	1.23228413	3.00228413	1.16	4.16228413	T	F	6.048	388.048	269	475.53116862601	0	0.081997938947842	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.2	33.8	36.5	0	1.84645769	3.69645769	1.07	4.76645769	T	F	7.2	385.2	269	475.53116862601	0	0.09753974619903	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-22 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.496	35.438	37.967	0	1.87401676	3.78401676	1.04	4.82401676	T	F	8.496	389.496	269	475.53116862601	0	0.117480067496	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.226	34.898	37.562	0	1.51574885	2.97574885	1.01	3.98574885	T	F	8.226	387.226	269	475.53116862601	0	0.11310515823991	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.334	35.744	38.039	0	0.87795323	2.29795323	0.94	3.23795323	T	F	8.334	390.334	269	475.53116862601	0	0.11484100829945	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	41.09	36.194	38.642	0	0.91338632	2.43338632	1.13	3.56338632	T	F	9.09	391.09	269	475.53116862601	0	0.12752179137242	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-22 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	362	77	39.938	34.736	37.337	0	0.83070911	2.39070911	1.19	3.58070911	T	F	7.938	383.938	269	475.53116862601	0	0.10856769178044	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	43.088	37.238	40.163	0	0.92519735	2.32519735	0.95	3.27519735	T	F	11.088	404.088	269	475.53116862601	0	0.16558473227189	16	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.172	33.998	37.085	0	0.95275642	2.37275642	1	3.37275642	T	F	8.172	388.172	269	475.53116862601	0	0.1122442667628	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	40.712	34.628	37.67	0	1.35433144	2.70433144	0.87	3.57433144	T	F	8.712	390.712	269	475.53116862601	0	0.12106498694542	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	42.404	34.664	38.534	0	1.40551257	2.42551257	0.71	3.13551257	T	F	10.404	391.404	269	475.53116862601	0	0.15180429563637	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	44.348	35.51	39.929	0	1.3779535	2.4379535	0.72	3.1579535	T	F	12.348	395.348	269	475.53116862601	0	0.19301315321746	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	362	77	43.502	35.132	39.317	0	1.08661476	2.60661476	0.76	3.36661476	T	F	11.502	398.502	269	475.53116862601	0	0.1743056528209	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	42.89	36.122	39.506	0	0.30314977	1.76314977	0.61	2.37314977	F	F	10.89	411.89	269	475.53116862601	0	0.16151513521965	16	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	43.754	36.392	40.073	0	0.2755907	1.6555907	0.52	2.1755907	F	F	11.754	413.754	269	475.53116862601	0	0.17975398582779	16	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	43.592	32.702	38.147	0	0.0787402	1.4987402	0.66	2.1587402	F	F	11.592	407.592	269	475.53116862601	0	0.1762393502291	16	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	43.772	31.082	37.427	0	0.8661422	2.8461422	0.68	3.5261422	T	F	11.772	401.772	269	475.53116862601	0	0.18014719454722	16	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	43.988	31.316	37.652	0	0.73228386	2.53228386	0.61	3.14228386	T	F	11.988	406.988	269	475.53116862601	0	0.1849076370997	16	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	362	77	42.98	34.25	38.615	0	0.63779562	2.33779562	0.4	2.73779562	T	F	10.98	405.98	269	475.53116862601	0	0.16335682066147	16	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	41.126	31.82	36.473	0	0.83464612	1.96464612	0.39	2.35464612	F	F	9.126	410.126	269	475.53116862601	0	0.12814894691174	16	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	42.008	31.856	36.932	0	0.99212652	2.19212652	0.39	2.58212652	F	F	10.008	411.008	269	475.53116862601	0	0.14418383239742	16	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	362	77	44.168	35.096	39.632	0	1.14960692	2.11960692	0.26	2.37960692	F	F	12.168	423.168	269	475.53116862601	0	0.18893367570484	16	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	362	77	47.138	37.49	42.314	0	0.26377967	1.06377967	0.22	1.28377967	F	F	15.138	436.138	269	475.53116862601	0	0.26284443347985	16	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	362	77	46.184	36.392	41.288	0	0.23228359	1.01228359	0.21	1.22228359	F	F	14.184	437.184	269	475.53116862601	0	0.23761175228896	16	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	362	77	46.058	37.544	41.801	0	0.45669316	0.74669316	0.16	0.90669316	F	F	14.058	446.058	269	475.53116862601	0	0.23438127643706	16	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2023-09-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	55.076	44.114	49.595	0	0.05905515	0.11905515	0.16	0.27905515	F	F	23.076	472.076	269	475.53116862601	0	0.51037567207354	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-09-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	54.698	43.736	49.217	0	0	0.27	0.18	0.45	F	F	22.698	457.698	269	475.53116862601	0	0.49782739959429	16	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2023-09-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	362	77	59.234	45.59	52.412	0	0	0.13	0.21	0.34	F	F	27.234	460.234	269	475.53116862601	0	0.64506741764169	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-09-18 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	362	77	61.016	42.188	51.602	0	0	0	0.17	0.17	F	F	29.016	483.016	269	475.53116862601	0	0.69858643401719	16	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2023-09-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	362	77	62.024	45.716	53.87	0	0	0	0.18	0.18	F	F	30.024	482.024	269	475.53116862601	0	0.72715518219764	16	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2023-09-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	362	77	60.782	42.854	51.818	0	0	0.33	0.25	0.58	F	F	28.782	470.782	269	475.53116862601	0	0.69176686263332	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-09-18 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	362	77	55.796	49.658	52.727	0	0	0	0.23	0.23	F	F	23.796	481.796	269	475.53116862601	0	0.53423842308643	16	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2023-09-17 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	362	77	55.706	49.658	52.682	0	0	0	0.29	0.29	F	F	23.706	479.706	269	475.53116862601	0	0.53126053841591	16	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2023-09-17 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	362	77	50.414	42.278	46.346	0	0	0.07	0.13	0.2	F	F	18.414	473.414	269	475.53116862601	0	0.35869183508743	16	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-09-17 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	362	77	45.824	42.548	44.186	0	0.13385834	0.83385834	0.3	1.13385834	F	F	13.824	445.824	269	475.53116862601	0	0.22844671556255	16	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2023-09-17 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	362	77	44.276	41.072	42.674	0	0.13385834	0.82385834	0.32	1.14385834	F	F	12.276	438.276	269	475.53116862601	0	0.19137496274679	16	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2023-09-17 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	362	77	49.892	48.146	49.019	0	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	17.892	445.892	269	475.53116862601	0	0.34259215831141	16	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L