MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 26, 2023

[ Monday, September 25, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 27, 2023 ]

DAY 361 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/27/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.80°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.074
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 420

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.96 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.54 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 268
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 475.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 76

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 100.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-27 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233617639.0900236.537.7950100.569999999999942.95999999999990.543.4999999999999TF7.09002420.09002268475.06528244366 00.07437513762890216 143552100DRYVH
2023-09-27 00:00:02FORECAST20233617639.30833.8936.59900.661417683.051417680.543.59141768TF7.308420.308269475.5311686260100.07712979787351916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST20233617639.66835.1537.40900.82677213.21677210.543.7567721TF7.668420.668269475.5311686260100.08184735934028416143552100DRYVH
2023-09-26 08:00:02FORECAST20233617640.1935.45637.82300.771653963.161653960.543.70165396TF8.19421.19269475.5311686260100.0890682363841516143552100DRYVH
2023-09-26 04:00:03FORECAST20233617639.34435.13237.23800.846457153.236457150.543.77645715TF7.344420.344269475.5311686260100.07759207719463916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-26 00:00:02FORECAST20233617640.92835.25838.09300.598425522.558425520.543.09842552TF8.928422.928268475.0652824436600.1000684637308216143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 20:00:01FORECAST20233617641.43235.6938.56100.610236552.780236550.543.32023655TF9.432423.432268475.0652824436600.1081288985033316143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 16:00:02FORECAST20233617640.85635.34838.10200.594488512.764488510.543.30448851TF8.856422.856268475.0652824436600.09895364490298916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 12:00:01FORECAST20233617640.92835.79838.36300.578740472.748740470.543.28874047TF8.928422.928268475.0652824436600.1000684637308216143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 08:00:03FORECAST20233617641.16235.47438.31800.657480672.867480670.543.40748067TF9.162421.162268475.0652824436600.1037547038152316143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 04:00:05FORECAST20233617640.04635.09637.57100.622047582.802047580.543.34204758TF8.046420.046268475.0652824436600.08703065763388516143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233617640.38835.76238.07500.492126252.112126250.542.65212625FF8.388421.388268475.0652824436600.0919273933314516143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 20:00:02FORECAST20233617639.75835.65437.70600.566929442.396929440.542.93692944TF7.758421.758268475.0652824436600.08305993245323616143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 16:00:02FORECAST20233617641.48636.80639.14600.677165722.497165720.543.03716572TF9.486424.486268475.0652824436600.1090193889578716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 12:00:03FORECAST20233617641.6337.0439.33500.488189242.528189240.543.06818924TF9.63425.63268475.0652824436600.111419685462716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 08:00:03FORECAST20233617641.46836.24838.85800.492126252.312126250.542.85212625TF9.468424.468268475.0652824436600.1087219768771516143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 04:00:04FORECAST20233617641.34235.20438.27300.429134092.279134090.542.81913409TF9.342421.342268475.0652824436600.1066563681037916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 00:00:02FORECAST20233617639.45233.87236.66200.70866182.28866180.532.8186618TF7.452418.452268475.0652824436600.07899149484925716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 20:00:03FORECAST20233617639.95634.82637.39100.811024062.371024060.663.03102406TF7.956420.956268475.0652824436600.08577491261690716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 16:00:03FORECAST20233617641.52235.94238.73200.803150042.263150040.662.92315004TF9.522423.522268475.0652824436600.109615960832716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 12:00:02FORECAST20233617642.13436.42839.28100.759842932.279842930.662.93984293TF10.134425.134268475.0652824436600.1201169596689716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 08:00:03FORECAST20233617642.87236.44639.65900.688976752.208976750.542.74897675TF10.872425.872268475.0652824436600.1336950701305716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 04:00:05FORECAST20233617641.19835.11438.15600.783464992.383464990.552.93346499TF9.198421.198268475.0652824436600.1043304218584516143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 00:00:04FORECAST20233617641.64835.34838.49800.755905922.415905920.52.91590592TF9.648416.648268475.0652824436600.1117223531375516143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 20:00:04FORECAST20233617642.92636.57239.74900.755905922.445905920.52.94590592TF10.926419.926268475.0652824436600.1347283361350416143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233617641.21635.61838.41700.460630172.000630170.472.47063017FF9.216418.216268475.0652824436600.1046191447075616143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 12:00:03FORECAST20233617641.03635.45638.24600.767716951.977716950.382.35771695FF9.036421.036268475.0652824436600.1017577866161916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 08:00:04FORECAST20233617640.7335.94238.33600.783464992.163464990.492.65346499FF8.73420.73268475.0652824436600.09702455137335116143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 04:00:05FORECAST20233617639.5635.54637.55300.858268182.208268180.542.74826818TF7.56414.56268475.0652824436600.08040988051544716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 00:00:03FORECAST20233617644.09637.9441.01800.744094891.854094890.52.35409489FF12.096432.096268475.0652824436600.1584606843067616143552100DRYVH
2023-09-21 20:00:07FORECAST20233617640.89234.95237.92200.74803191.92803190.492.4180319FF8.892418.892268475.0652824436600.09950991706375716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-21 16:00:04FORECAST20233617641.30635.72638.51600.637795621.707795620.512.21779562FF9.306421.306268475.0652824436600.1060714138436316143552100DRYVH
2023-09-21 12:00:03FORECAST20233617640.87435.76238.31800.594488511.224488510.511.73448851FF8.874419.874268475.0652824436600.0992314968963181614345280DRYVH
2023-09-21 08:00:02FORECAST20233617640.71235.65438.18300.610236551.280236550.51.78023655FF8.712421.712268475.0652824436600.0967512282365381614345280DRYVH
2023-09-21 04:00:05FORECAST20233617640.89235.83438.36300.874016221.824016220.462.28401622FF8.892425.892268475.0652824436600.09950991706375716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233617641.43237.5839.50600.948819411.778819410.292.06881941FF9.432440.432268475.0652824436600.1081288985033316143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233617642.04437.61639.8300.921260341.591260340.311.90126034FF10.044441.044268475.0652824436600.118529875051316143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 16:00:03FORECAST20233617640.7335.09637.91300.618110571.758110570.322.07811057FF8.73434.73268475.0652824436600.09702455137335116143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 12:00:03FORECAST20233617641.10834.4337.76901.106299812.436299810.222.65629981TF9.108429.108268475.0652824436600.1028954395720416143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 08:00:02FORECAST20233617641.70236.33839.0200.94488242.25488240.162.4148824FF9.702433.702268475.0652824436600.1126338724785816143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 04:00:06FORECAST20233617643.17839.23641.20700.972441471.832441470.272.10244147FF11.178434.178268475.0652824436600.1396223897963116143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 00:00:03FORECAST20233617644.38436.44640.41500.413386051.233386050.291.52338605FF12.384440.384268475.0652824436600.164698408726361614345280DRYVH
2023-09-19 20:00:03FORECAST20233617644.49236.93240.71200.452756151.322756150.271.59275615FF12.492440.492268475.0652824436600.16707791746731614345280DRYVH
2023-09-19 16:00:03FORECAST20233617645.48237.77841.6300.602362531.002362530.231.23236253FF13.482450.482268475.0652824436600.189912022356521614345280DRYVH
2023-09-19 12:00:06FORECAST20233617647.89439.97443.93400.59055150.86055150.161.0205515FF15.894459.894268475.0652824436600.253038899423431624335267.5DRYH
2023-09-19 08:00:05FORECAST20233617647.96638.44443.20500.559055420.839055420.150.98905542FF15.966461.966268475.0652824436600.255078862557141624335267.5DRYH
2023-09-19 04:00:06FORECAST20233617653.16841.55847.36300.181102460.291102460.160.45110246FF21.168471.168268475.0652824436600.421224703417921624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 00:00:03FORECAST20233617658.2847.33652.80800.055118140.055118140.160.21511814FF26.28488.28268475.0652824436600.59990158020881634315225DRYL
2023-09-18 20:00:03FORECAST20233617657.6547.17452.41200.082677210.272677210.180.45267721FF25.65473.65268475.0652824436600.578245103811491634325250DRYMH
2023-09-18 16:00:06FORECAST20233617664.20251.63857.92000.130.210.34FF32.202472.202268475.0652824436600.781299988120571644325255DRYH
2023-09-18 12:00:04FORECAST20233617665.8450.5458.190000.170.17FF33.84492.84268475.0652824436600.821588710664441644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-18 08:00:03FORECAST20233617666.41653.0659.7380000.180.18FF34.416491.416268475.0652824436600.834569522867021644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-18 04:00:08FORECAST20233617663.26650.3656.813000.430.150.58FF31.266481.266268475.0652824436600.756107755712571644325255DRYH
2023-09-18 00:00:05FORECAST20233617668.46854.30261.385000.070.160.23FF36.468497.468268475.0652824436600.875735324696881654315160DRYH
2023-09-17 20:00:05FORECAST20233617668.28854.6861.484000.090.20.29FF36.288495.288268475.0652824436600.872439646977871654315160DRYH
2023-09-17 16:00:08FORECAST20233617666.25447.17456.714000.080.120.2FF34.254494.254268475.0652824436600.830981824465981644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:07FORECAST20233617657.0246.77851.89900.594488510.834488510.171.00448851FF25.02471.02268475.0652824436600.556349347852981634335275DRYVH
2023-09-17 08:00:07FORECAST20233617656.64244.79850.7200.582677480.822677480.191.01267748FF24.642464.642268475.0652824436600.54312436265071634335275DRYVH
2023-09-17 04:00:08FORECAST20233617660.63847.7554.1940000.130.13FF28.638466.638268475.0652824436600.677787725655961634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:05FORECAST20233617650.68442.99846.84100.059055150.059055150.130.18905515FF18.684483.684268475.0652824436600.337854271695431624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:09FORECAST20233617650.7242.87246.79600.066929170.066929170.130.19692917FF18.72492.72268475.0652824436600.339018182569331624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:04FORECAST20233617649.24433.42241.3330000.130.13FF17.244473.244268475.0652824436600.292665149413631624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:04FORECAST20233617647.08445.08646.0850000.10.1FF15.084495.084268475.0652824436600.23069236106991614315220DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20233617649.47848.18248.830000.10.1FF17.478498.478268475.0652824436600.299815755269591624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:06FORECAST20233617644.94243.37644.159000.070.150.22FF12.942461.942268475.0652824436600.177229104369261614315220DRYL