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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 13, 2023

[ Tuesday, September 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 14, 2023 ]

DAY 348 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/14/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.474
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 492

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 255
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-14 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233486357.6300244.2000450.9150300.0499999999999550.0599999999999551.461.52FF25.63002491.63002255468.84486811521 00.4744472540900316 23315220DRYL
2023-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20233486358.69442.87250.783000.011.461.47FF26.694492.694256469.3343470174500.515648547418511633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20233486360.20644.25852.232000.011.461.47FF28.206494.206256469.3343470174500.573807293761831633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20233486359.0942.11650.603000.011.461.47FF27.09493.09256469.3343470174500.53096401901421633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 04:00:05FORECAST20233486358.7341.1849.955000.011.461.47FF26.73492.73256469.3343470174500.517042158636221633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20233486360.51241.28850.90001.461.46FF28.512490.512255468.8448681152100.585425620832651633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20233486358.85641.37850.1170001.461.46FF26.856489.856255468.8448681152100.521918046914531633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 16:00:01FORECAST20233486359.70241.70250.7020001.461.46FF27.702490.702255468.8448681152100.554535513743831633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:01FORECAST20233486359.32441.41450.3690001.461.46FF27.324490.324255468.8448681152100.539994034651161633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20233486359.942.63851.2690001.461.46FF27.9489.9255468.8448681152100.562124555646871633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:05FORECAST20233486358.7340.8249.7750001.461.46FF26.73487.73255468.8448681152100.517042158636221633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20233486359.43241.57650.5040001.461.46FF27.432487.432255468.8448681152100.544155071301491633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20233486358.29841.32449.8110001.461.46FF26.298483.298255468.8448681152100.500309951699591633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20233486357.75840.38849.0730001.461.46FF25.758482.758255468.8448681152100.479397376341231623315220DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233486357.81241.14449.4780001.461.46FF25.812483.812255468.8448681152100.481487033496931623315220DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20233486358.44242.36850.4050001.461.46FF26.442485.442255468.8448681152100.505888869010751633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20233486359.39643.3451.3680001.461.46FF27.396488.396255468.8448681152100.542768574243881633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20233486358.8242.74650.7830001.461.46FF26.82483.82255468.8448681152100.520525238691351633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 20:00:03FORECAST20233486359.39643.17851.2870001.461.46FF27.396482.396255468.8448681152100.542768574243881633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20233486357.7442.31450.0270001.461.46FF25.74478.74255468.8448681152100.478700946929331623315220DRYL
2023-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20233486356.42641.0948.7580001.461.46FF24.426475.426255468.8448681152100.428173738623061623315220DRYL
2023-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20233486356.19240.74848.470001.461.46FF24.192476.192255468.8448681152100.419274062868011623315220DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:08FORECAST20233486357.88441.19849.5410001.461.46FF25.884483.884255468.8448681152100.484274024563551623315220DRYL
2023-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20233486358.62242.76450.6930001.461.46FF26.622479.622255468.8448681152100.512860768458721633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20233486359.6342.49451.0620001.461.46FF27.63481.63255468.8448681152100.551770749563731633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 16:00:03FORECAST20233486359.82840.78450.3060001.461.46FF27.828478.828255468.8448681152100.55936739594731633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20233486358.51440.78449.6490001.461.46FF26.514475.514255468.8448681152100.508677963992151633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233486358.89241.79250.3420001.461.46FF26.892477.892255468.8448681152100.52331058749771633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 04:00:06FORECAST20233486360.09842.54851.323000.031.461.49FF28.098481.098255468.8448681152100.569690817248881633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 00:00:04FORECAST20233486362.25841.50451.881000.021.461.48FF30.258481.258255468.8448681152100.650014919984151633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20233486361.39443.10652.250001.461.46FF29.394477.394255468.8448681152100.618464609873431633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20233486360.60244.29452.4480001.461.46FF28.602480.602255468.8448681152100.588829080998241633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20233486359.79243.8851.8360001.461.46FF27.792480.792255468.8448681152100.557987727520041633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:04FORECAST20233486359.91842.49451.2060001.461.46FF27.918481.918255468.8448681152100.562813379998561633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:05FORECAST20233486359.34242.74651.0440001.461.46FF27.342476.342255468.8448681152100.540687857494981633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20233486358.22642.2650.2430001.461.46FF26.226474.226255468.8448681152100.497520402119271623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20233486361.53842.92652.2320001.461.46FF29.538481.538255468.8448681152100.623784568894931633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20233486358.44241.43249.9370001.461.46FF26.442469.442255468.8448681152100.505888869010751633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:06FORECAST20233486357.77641.48649.6310001.461.46FF25.776475.776255468.8448681152100.48009386865511623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:05FORECAST20233486356.33640.148.2180001.461.46FF24.336468.336255468.8448681152100.424746202500751623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:06FORECAST20233486354.26639.8347.0480001.461.46FF22.266465.266255468.8448681152100.347972759770351623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:05FORECAST20233486359.75641.75650.7560001.461.46FF27.756466.756255468.8448681152100.556607355355851633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:04FORECAST20233486361.10643.19652.1510001.461.46FF29.106471.106255468.8448681152100.60775824405251633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20233486360.42244.07852.250001.461.46FF28.422476.422255468.8448681152100.582015736358251633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:04FORECAST20233486360.5343.23251.8810001.461.46FF28.53465.53255468.8448681152100.586106834744451633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20233486360.5343.03451.7820001.461.46FF28.53464.53255468.8448681152100.586106834744451633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:06FORECAST20233486361.62842.69252.160001.461.46FF29.628468.628255468.8448681152100.627097715819911633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20233486362.81647.33655.0760001.451.45FF30.816484.816255468.8448681152100.669869679364161633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 20:00:04FORECAST20233486363.03247.9355.4810001.451.45FF31.032491.032255468.8448681152100.677432560035271633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20233486359.86443.12451.4940001.451.45FF27.864480.864255468.8448681152100.560746344144991633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 12:00:05FORECAST20233486360.67445.39253.0330001.451.45FF28.674483.674255468.8448681152100.591547057412951633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 08:00:04FORECAST20233486358.78446.74252.7630001.451.45FF26.784472.784255468.8448681152100.519132179804191633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 04:00:07FORECAST20233486363.42846.81455.1210001.451.45FF31.428493.428255468.8448681152100.691107287856491633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 00:00:05FORECAST20233486362.31245.553.9060001.331.33FF30.312486.312255468.8448681152100.651955444878971633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20233486359.23444.36651.80001.41.4FF27.234477.234255468.8448681152100.536523135420111633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 16:00:05FORECAST20233486356.40840.76648.58700.043307110.043307111.241.28330711FF24.408459.408255468.8448681152100.427487789146761623315220DRYL
2023-09-04 12:00:04FORECAST20233486365.58844.8755.2290001.251.25FF33.588479.588255468.8448681152100.760772417689641643315225DRYL
2023-09-04 08:00:04FORECAST20233486365.13843.03454.0860001.261.26FF33.138475.138255468.8448681152100.746999866599281643315225DRYL
2023-09-04 04:00:06FORECAST20233486359.57645.28452.430001.31.3FF27.576484.576255468.8448681152100.54969551749621633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 00:00:13FORECAST20233486349.51441.52245.5180001.321.32FF17.514455.514255468.8448681152100.197003632077651613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-03 20:00:09FORECAST20233486350.7246.92248.821000.151.221.37FF18.72456.72255468.8448681152100.231105422421311613325235DRYL
2023-09-03 16:00:04FORECAST20233486350.7246.92248.821000.151.221.37FF18.72456.72255468.8448681152100.231105422421311613325235DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20233486345.89643.30444.6000.411.251.66FF13.896452.896255468.8448681152100.114286642240251613325235DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:04FORECAST20233486346.444.43845.419000.441.21.64FF14.4457.4255468.8448681152100.12403888269551613325235DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:06FORECAST20233486350.34248.8349.5860001.21.2FF18.342470.342255468.8448681152100.220077557265881613315217.5DRYL