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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 14, 2023

[ Wednesday, September 13, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, September 15, 2023 ]

DAY 349 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/15/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.884
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 488

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 256
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 64

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-15 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233496471.7999850.7500661.27502000.061.461.52FF39.79998487.79998256469.33434701745 00.884287342769816 53315155DRYH
2023-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20233496467.49649.3758.433000.061.461.52FF35.496483.496257469.8219694294300.795215757918371643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20233496466.12846.86856.498000.061.461.52FF34.128482.128257469.8219694294300.760049940653071643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20233496466.7447.87657.308000.061.461.52FF34.74482.74257469.8219694294300.776174003317641643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 04:00:04FORECAST20233496465.35449.96457.659000.061.461.52FF33.354481.354257469.8219694294300.738783659578291643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20233496466.39847.9357.164000.011.461.47FF34.398483.398256469.3343470174500.767240329836341643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20233496466.9248.59657.758000.011.461.47FF34.92484.92256469.3343470174500.78079667434661643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20233496467.4649.35258.406000.011.461.47FF35.46485.46256469.3343470174500.7943313981271643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20233496467.78450.959.342000.011.461.47FF35.784485.784256469.3343470174500.802209020008721643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:03FORECAST20233496467.11849.65858.388000.011.461.47FF35.118484.118256469.3343470174500.785817759920051643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 04:00:06FORECAST20233496465.98447.55256.768000.011.461.47FF33.984482.984256469.3343470174500.756166171647221643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20233496467.38849.26258.3250001.461.46FF35.388482.388256469.3343470174500.792555906631151643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20233496465.42649.44257.4340001.461.46FF33.426479.426256469.3343470174500.740801921562651643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20233496467.29849.83858.5680001.461.46FF35.298482.298256469.3343470174500.790323874282361643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20233496465.91249.08257.4970001.461.46FF33.912479.912256469.3343470174500.754211658855461643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:03FORECAST20233496466.12849.85657.9920001.461.46FF34.128480.128256469.3343470174500.760049940653071643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:05FORECAST20233496465.44447.9356.6870001.461.46FF33.444477.444256469.3343470174500.741305226398741643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20233496466.32648.75857.5420001.461.46FF34.326477.326256469.3343470174500.765334664226271643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20233496465.64248.18256.9120001.461.46FF33.642472.642256469.3343470174500.746808051701911643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20233496465.06647.10256.0840001.461.46FF33.066472.066256469.3343470174500.730630741802911643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233496464.59847.17455.8860001.461.46FF32.598472.598256469.3343470174500.717116074196271643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20233496465.35448.72257.0380001.461.46FF33.354474.354256469.3343470174500.738783659578291643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20233496466.75849.26258.010001.461.46FF34.758478.758256469.3343470174500.776638744714871643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:04FORECAST20233496465.73247.08456.4080001.461.46FF33.732473.732256469.3343470174500.749288861041861643315225DRYL
2023-09-10 20:00:03FORECAST20233496465.94847.1256.5340001.461.46FF33.948471.948256469.3343470174500.755189963559871643315225DRYL
2023-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20233496465.22849.4657.3440001.461.46FF33.228468.228256469.3343470174500.73523239756041643315225DRYL
2023-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20233496463.89647.60655.7510001.461.46FF31.896462.896256469.3343470174500.696254476841691633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20233496463.57245.21254.3920001.461.46FF31.572463.572256469.3343470174500.686400216133251633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:09FORECAST20233496466.61449.0157.8120001.461.46FF34.614474.614256469.3343470174500.772905492708461643315225DRYL
2023-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20233496465.91249.56857.740001.461.46FF33.912469.912256469.3343470174500.754211658855461643315225DRYL
2023-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20233496466.09247.85856.9750001.461.46FF34.092472.092256469.3343470174500.759082167492721643315225DRYL
2023-09-09 16:00:03FORECAST20233496465.58849.02857.3080001.461.46FF33.588468.588256469.3343470174500.745313401983311643315225DRYL
2023-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20233496462.63646.38254.5090001.461.46FF30.636462.636256469.3343470174500.657197218133321633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233496462.79847.01254.9050001.461.46FF30.798464.798256469.3343470174500.662325539592321633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 04:00:06FORECAST20233496463.82448.54256.1830001.491.49FF31.824468.824256469.3343470174500.694076584932831633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 00:00:05FORECAST20233496464.43649.08256.7590001.481.48FF32.436469.436256469.3343470174500.712363292532481643315225DRYL
2023-09-08 20:00:03FORECAST20233496462.99648.95655.9760001.461.46FF30.996463.996256469.3343470174500.668552737797661633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20233496461.5247.08454.3020001.461.46FF29.52466.52256469.3343470174500.621123938369171633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20233496462.63647.17454.9050001.461.46FF30.636467.636256469.3343470174500.657197218133321633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:04FORECAST20233496462.34845.33853.8430001.461.46FF30.348468.348256469.3343470174500.648008858266811633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:05FORECAST20233496464.05847.49855.7780001.461.46FF32.058464.058256469.3343470174500.701129266699291643315225DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20233496463.98645.08654.5360001.461.46FF31.986461.986256469.3343470174500.698967075483621633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20233496465.4845.17655.3280001.461.46FF33.48471.48256469.3343470174500.742310318327871643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20233496463.78844.65454.2210001.461.46FF31.788456.788256469.3343470174500.692985055953941633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:07FORECAST20233496466.30847.78657.0470001.461.46FF34.308466.308256469.3343470174500.764856905531261643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:05FORECAST20233496464.20243.64653.9240001.461.46FF32.202456.202256469.3343470174500.705432358906351643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:07FORECAST20233496463.89643.26853.5820001.461.46FF31.896452.896256469.3343470174500.696254476841691633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:06FORECAST20233496461.5245.26653.3930001.461.46FF29.52452.52256469.3343470174500.621123938369171633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:04FORECAST20233496461.30444.0652.6820001.461.46FF29.304456.304256469.3343470174500.614006829753881633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20233496461.84445.62653.7350001.461.46FF29.844461.844256469.3343470174500.631722370224211633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:04FORECAST20233496463.12249.51456.3180001.461.46FF31.122453.122256469.3343470174500.672491527835511633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20233496463.1449.5556.3450001.461.46FF31.14452.14256469.3343470174500.673052662211321633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:07FORECAST20233496463.66247.35455.5080001.461.46FF31.662456.662256469.3343470174500.689151277606151633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 00:00:05FORECAST20233496466.93847.9357.4340001.451.45FF34.938475.938256469.3343470174500.781255908935281643315225DRYL
2023-09-05 20:00:04FORECAST20233496466.4747.85857.1640001.451.45FF34.47481.47256469.3343470174500.76913737888521643315225DRYL
2023-09-05 16:00:04FORECAST20233496463.8645.64454.7520001.451.45FF31.86468.86256469.3343470174500.69516639449151633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 12:00:05FORECAST20233496459.10841.23450.1710001.451.45FF27.108467.108256469.3343470174500.539869926339771633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 08:00:04FORECAST20233496462.0644.9653.510001.451.45FF30.06459.06256469.3343470174500.638733294556131633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 04:00:07FORECAST20233496466.59646.92256.7590001.451.45FF34.596483.596256469.3343470174500.772436379760131643315225DRYL
2023-09-05 00:00:05FORECAST20233496450.50441.19845.8510001.331.33FF18.504460.504256469.3343470174500.260095232875251623315220DRYL
2023-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20233496449.47841.19845.3380001.41.4FF17.478450.478256469.3343470174500.232180176906781613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-04 16:00:05FORECAST20233496448.07437.88642.98000.041.241.28FF16.074431.074256469.3343470174500.196832190101291613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-04 12:00:05FORECAST20233496450.0943.0746.580001.251.25FF18.09454.09256469.3343470174500.248627403717861613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-04 08:00:04FORECAST20233496446.43643.08844.7620001.261.26FF14.436445.436256469.3343470174500.159978092444311613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-04 04:00:06FORECAST20233496447.80446.79647.30001.31.3FF15.804456.804256469.3343470174500.190427633458741613315217.5DRYL