MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 1, 2023

[ Monday, July 31, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 2, 2023 ]

DAY 305 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/02/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.527
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 583

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 212
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 20

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-02 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233052065.7100445.3900255.550030000.30.3FF33.71004582.71004212445.9366015751 00.5269839631588516 32415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 00:00:01FORECAST20233052062.45642.49452.4750000.30.3FF30.456579.456213446.5129667018200.383667178889161622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20233052063.84243.5253.6810000.30.3FF31.842580.842213446.5129667018200.4439294551431622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 08:00:03FORECAST20233052064.32843.46653.8970000.30.3FF32.328581.328213446.5129667018200.465448538644211622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 04:00:11FORECAST20233052064.8543.57454.2120000.30.3FF32.85581.85213446.5129667018200.488672979664161622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20233052064.18443.57453.8790000.30.3FF32.184578.184212445.936601575100.459059088934631622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20233052064.56242.9853.7710000.30.3FF32.562579.562212445.936601575100.475849687630271622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 16:00:03FORECAST20233052063.64444.5154.0770000.30.3FF31.644578.644212445.936601575100.435205964130621622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20233052063.44644.67254.0590000.30.3FF31.446578.446212445.936601575100.426513892927781622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 08:00:05FORECAST20233052063.87845.08654.4820000.30.3FF31.878579.878212445.936601575100.445518595072181622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 04:00:14FORECAST20233052062.63643.3452.9880000.30.3FF30.636577.636212445.936601575100.391368868488621622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 00:00:05FORECAST20233052063.12243.28653.2040000.30.3FF31.122575.122212445.936601575100.412369033750741622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 20:00:05FORECAST20233052062.63642.99852.8170000.30.3FF30.636575.636212445.936601575100.391368868488621622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 16:00:06FORECAST20233052063.55443.17853.3660000.30.3FF31.554577.554212445.936601575100.431250878746331622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233052063.15843.71853.4380000.30.3FF31.158577.158212445.936601575100.413935430420721622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20233052062.88843.37653.1320000.30.3FF30.888574.888212445.936601575100.402222512678891622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 04:00:13FORECAST20233052063.08643.53853.3120000.30.3FF31.086576.086212445.936601575100.410804031398481622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20233052062.85243.10652.9790000.30.3FF30.852571.852212445.936601575100.400667156248311622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 20:00:04FORECAST20233052063.55444.40253.9780000.30.3FF31.554572.554212445.936601575100.431250878746331622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 16:00:06FORECAST20233052063.08642.8952.9880000.30.3FF31.086571.086212445.936601575100.410804031398481622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 12:00:06FORECAST20233052062.2442.90852.5740000.30.3FF30.24567.24212445.936601575100.374485686168031622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20233052062.13242.11652.1240000.30.3FF30.132567.132212445.936601575100.369921116941671622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 04:00:11FORECAST20233052063.39242.15252.7720000.30.3FF31.392573.392212445.936601575100.424149324278071622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 00:00:05FORECAST20233052064.09443.82653.960000.30.3FF32.094573.094212445.936601575100.455070940853821622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 20:00:05FORECAST20233052063.48241.57652.5290000.30.3FF31.482575.482212445.936601575100.42809174601131622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 16:00:07FORECAST20233052063.66243.80853.7350000.30.3FF31.662574.662212445.936601575100.435997772751781622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 12:00:04FORECAST20233052064.68843.66454.1760000.30.3FF32.688575.688212445.936601575100.481457585508631622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233052065.5744.34854.9590000.30.3FF33.57578.57212445.936601575100.520753435019141632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 04:00:07FORECAST20233052066.0242.7154.3650000.30.3FF34.02577.02212445.936601575100.54074878185021632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 00:00:06FORECAST20233052065.01244.11454.5630000.30.3FF33.012571.012212445.936601575100.495892083039481622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20233052065.53444.4254.9770000.30.3FF33.534573.534212445.936601575100.519150875887561632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 16:00:04FORECAST20233052066.1145.39255.7510000.30.3FF34.11575.11212445.936601575100.544737137660811632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233052065.85844.56455.2110000.30.3FF33.858572.858212445.936601575100.533559664626591632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 08:00:05FORECAST20233052065.49844.83455.1660000.30.3FF33.498570.498212445.936601575100.517548007195921632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 04:00:08FORECAST20233052063.87841.52252.70000.30.3FF31.878567.878212445.936601575100.445518595072181622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 00:00:07FORECAST20233052062.85243.01652.9340000.30.3FF30.852563.852212445.936601575100.400667156248311622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233052060.31442.47651.3950000.30.3FF28.314553.314212445.936601575100.296261561045851622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 16:00:04FORECAST20233052061.73641.93651.8360000.30.3FF29.736564.736212445.936601575100.353344885886271622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 12:00:05FORECAST20233052061.30441.93651.620000.30.3FF29.304563.304212445.936601575100.335574598112911622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 08:00:07FORECAST20233052061.95242.27852.1150000.30.3FF29.952565.952212445.936601575100.362354335239111622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 04:00:13FORECAST20233052063.9544.11454.0320000.30.3FF31.95568.95212445.936601575100.448699477010311622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 00:00:06FORECAST20233052069.69246.99458.3430000.240.24FF37.692580.692212445.936601575100.695876138922451632415145DRYM
2023-07-25 20:00:06FORECAST20233052069.06246.23857.650000.240.24FF37.062575.062212445.936601575100.670823057207971632415145DRYM
2023-07-25 16:00:08FORECAST20233052069.4445.28457.3620000.240.24FF37.44580.44212445.936601575100.685956214735931632415145DRYM
2023-07-25 12:00:04FORECAST20233052065.76845.44655.6070000.240.24FF33.768566.768212445.936601575100.529560822165211632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-25 08:00:06FORECAST20233052063.4144.85254.1310000.240.24FF31.41564.41212445.936601575100.424937214929791622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 04:00:09FORECAST20233052064.61645.62655.1210000.240.24FF32.616562.616212445.936601575100.47825255172131622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233052069.67449.11859.3960000.320.32FF37.674586.674212445.936601575100.695172213976441632415145DRYM
2023-07-24 20:00:05FORECAST20233052070.68249.7360.2060000.380.38FF38.682591.682212445.936601575100.733421220815891642415150DRYMH
2023-07-24 16:00:08FORECAST20233052069.0848.18258.6310000.350.35FF37.08583.08212445.936601575100.671550319896131632415145DRYM
2023-07-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233052069.90848.72259.3150000.350.35FF37.908580.908212445.936601575100.704266126769911642415150DRYMH
2023-07-24 08:00:05FORECAST20233052070.750.32460.5120000.360.36FF38.7588.7212445.936601575100.734081579409421642415150DRYMH
2023-07-24 04:00:08FORECAST20233052070.750.32460.5120000.360.36FF38.7588.7212445.936601575100.734081579409421642415150DRYMH
2023-07-24 00:00:07FORECAST20233052070.750.32460.5120000.360.36FF38.7585.7212445.936601575100.734081579409421642415150DRYMH
2023-07-23 20:00:06FORECAST20233052070.750.32460.5120000.360.36FF38.7584.7212445.936601575100.734081579409421642415150DRYMH
2023-07-23 16:00:04FORECAST20233052070.750.32460.5120000.360.36FF38.7584.7212445.936601575100.734081579409421642415150DRYMH
2023-07-23 12:00:05FORECAST20233052067.94646.83257.3890000.380.38FF35.946576.946212445.936601575100.624568183782791632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-23 08:00:05FORECAST20233052067.22645.80656.5160000.360.36FF35.226561.226212445.936601575100.593694589035631632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-23 04:00:10FORECAST20233052076.49648.88462.690000.360.36FF44.496571.496212445.936601575100.898530368401921652415155DRYH
2023-07-23 00:00:09FORECAST20233052054.80649.5552.1780000.220.22FF22.806555.806212445.936601575100.124895433729391612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-22 20:00:05FORECAST20233052054.80649.5552.1780000.220.22FF22.806554.806212445.936601575100.124895433729391612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233052054.3251.33252.8260000.150.15FF22.32555.32212445.936601575100.114057959665681612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233052055.3151.02653.1680000.110.11FF23.31555.31212445.936601575100.136870980862331612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-22 08:00:06FORECAST20233052055.3151.02653.1680000.140.14FF23.31555.31212445.936601575100.136870980862331612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-22 04:00:11FORECAST20233052048.14646.79647.4710000.110.11FF16.146537.146212445.936601575100.0289062695880471612415217.5DRYL