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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 31, 2023

[ Sunday, July 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 1, 2023 ]

DAY 304 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/01/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.383
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 587

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 211
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 19

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-01 04:00:10OBSERVATION20233041961.8999840.9400651.420020000.30.3FF29.89998586.89998211445.35804209427 00.3825976357377816 22415220DRYL
2023-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20233041958.8239.68649.2530000.30.3FF26.82583.82212445.936601575100.270711327401151622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 12:00:01FORECAST20233041960.09840.20850.1530000.30.3FF28.098585.098212445.936601575100.315187491890411622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20233041960.99839.93850.4680000.30.3FF28.998585.998212445.936601575100.348256560320771622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 04:00:13FORECAST20233041959.59439.61449.6040000.30.3FF27.594584.594212445.936601575100.297274965258311622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 00:00:04FORECAST20233041960.27839.50649.8920000.30.3FF28.278582.278211445.3580420942700.321694575390041622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20233041958.94639.93849.4420000.30.3FF26.946582.946211445.3580420942700.274953808254861622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20233041960.24239.90250.0720000.30.3FF28.242584.242211445.3580420942700.320388694789171622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233041959.91841.7250.8190000.30.3FF27.918583.918211445.3580420942700.308737204293121622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20233041959.52241.07250.2970000.30.3FF27.522581.522211445.3580420942700.294754422134471622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 04:00:13FORECAST20233041959.64841.1850.4140000.30.3FF27.648582.648211445.3580420942700.29917180536881622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20233041959.43240.69450.0630000.30.3FF27.432579.432211445.3580420942700.291617661527341622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20233041960.1741.59450.8820000.30.3FF28.17579.17211445.3580420942700.317783602556611622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 16:00:05FORECAST20233041959.6340.13649.8830000.30.3FF27.63577.63211445.3580420942700.29853891569121622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 12:00:05FORECAST20233041958.31639.16448.740000.30.3FF26.316575.316211445.3580420942700.254074561264711622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20233041958.29838.64248.470000.30.3FF26.298575.298211445.3580420942700.253490455284241622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 04:00:11FORECAST20233041959.68439.52449.6040000.30.3FF27.684579.684211445.3580420942700.300439406074761622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 00:00:05FORECAST20233041960.22440.60450.4140000.30.3FF28.224579.224211445.3580420942700.31973658557611622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 20:00:05FORECAST20233041959.70239.57849.640000.30.3FF27.702581.702211445.3580420942700.301074114057971622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 16:00:06FORECAST20233041959.70240.6450.1710000.30.3FF27.702580.702211445.3580420942700.301074114057971622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20233041958.89239.36249.1270000.30.3FF26.892580.892211445.3580420942700.273131601405631622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 08:00:03FORECAST20233041959.79240.62250.2070000.30.3FF27.792582.792211445.3580420942700.304256668879971622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 04:00:07FORECAST20233041958.7338.4848.6050000.30.3FF26.73580.73211445.3580420942700.267701101508361622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 00:00:05FORECAST20233041959.46839.18249.3250000.30.3FF27.468576.468211445.3580420942700.292870499688271622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20233041960.54840.15450.3510000.30.3FF28.548577.548211445.3580420942700.331558009578271622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 16:00:03FORECAST20233041960.63840.87450.7560000.30.3FF28.638578.638211445.3580420942700.334872369254121622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233041959.93640.17250.0540000.30.3FF27.936576.936211445.3580420942700.309379630507971622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 08:00:05FORECAST20233041959.70240.1949.9460000.30.3FF27.702574.702211445.3580420942700.301074114057971622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 04:00:08FORECAST20233041960.02638.82249.4240000.30.3FF28.026574.026211445.3580420942700.312600469155411622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 00:00:07FORECAST20233041958.80239.79449.2980000.30.3FF26.802570.802211445.3580420942700.270107934350541622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233041955.92239.6547.7860000.30.3FF23.922562.922211445.3580420942700.182918714566671612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 16:00:04FORECAST20233041957.86639.3848.6230000.30.3FF25.866572.866211445.3580420942700.239685923140561612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 12:00:05FORECAST20233041957.97440.17249.0730000.30.3FF25.974571.974211445.3580420942700.243098184889811612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 08:00:06FORECAST20233041958.38840.149.2440000.30.3FF26.388574.388211445.3580420942700.256418016844081622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 04:00:13FORECAST20233041959.14440.3749.7570000.30.3FF27.144575.144211445.3580420942700.281685977267581622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 00:00:06FORECAST20233041961.32241.55851.440000.240.24FF29.322581.322211445.3580420942700.36046658408811622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 20:00:06FORECAST20233041960.49441.52251.0080000.240.24FF28.494576.494211445.3580420942700.329575680759911622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 16:00:07FORECAST20233041961.75442.74652.250000.240.24FF29.754580.754211445.3580420942700.376968452694081622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 12:00:04FORECAST20233041960.3541.52250.9360000.240.24FF28.35571.35211445.3580420942700.324312937633911622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 08:00:06FORECAST20233041959.73841.50450.6210000.240.24FF27.738570.738211445.3580420942700.302345337630831622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 04:00:08FORECAST20233041960.83643.26852.0520000.240.24FF28.836567.836211445.3580420942700.342209061594361622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233041965.10241.37853.240000.320.32FF33.102587.102211445.3580420942700.510243510933431632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-24 20:00:04FORECAST20233041966.66843.93455.3010000.380.38FF34.668590.668211445.3580420942700.573113109507441632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-24 16:00:07FORECAST20233041961.86239.7450.8010000.350.35FF29.862583.862211445.3580420942700.381130634010891622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233041964.74241.28853.0150000.350.35FF32.742580.742211445.3580420942700.495696993118941622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 08:00:05FORECAST20233041967.89249.33458.6130000.360.36FF35.892587.892211445.3580420942700.621068987958231632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-24 04:00:08FORECAST20233041967.89249.33458.6130000.360.36FF35.892587.892211445.3580420942700.621068987958231632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-24 00:00:07FORECAST20233041967.89249.33458.6130000.360.36FF35.892584.892211445.3580420942700.621068987958231632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-23 20:00:06FORECAST20233041967.89249.33458.6130000.360.36FF35.892583.892211445.3580420942700.621068987958231632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-23 16:00:04FORECAST20233041967.89249.33458.6130000.360.36FF35.892583.892211445.3580420942700.621068987958231632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-23 12:00:05FORECAST20233041963.89647.31855.6070000.380.38FF31.896578.896211445.3580420942700.461569381734951622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 08:00:05FORECAST20233041962.07845.19453.6360000.360.36FF30.078564.078211445.3580420942700.389495918663561622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 04:00:09FORECAST20233041964.00446.1355.0670000.360.36FF32.004565.004211445.3580420942700.465915641250411622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 00:00:09FORECAST20233041967.20848.84858.0280000.220.22FF35.208571.208211445.3580420942700.594448855515851632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 20:00:04FORECAST20233041967.20848.84858.0280000.220.22FF35.208570.208211445.3580420942700.594448855515851632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233041968.52246.61657.5690000.150.15FF36.522570.522211445.3580420942700.645092814731761632415145DRYM
2023-07-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233041971.52842.6257.0740000.110.11FF39.528569.528211445.3580420942700.75067590610561642415150DRYMH
2023-07-22 08:00:05FORECAST20233041971.52841.70256.6150000.140.14FF39.528569.528211445.3580420942700.75067590610561642415150DRYMH
2023-07-22 04:00:11FORECAST20233041965.49842.02653.7620000.110.11FF33.498559.498211445.3580420942700.526228213551471632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 00:00:06FORECAST20233041946.27443.12444.6990000.130.13FF14.274537.274211445.3580420942700.0297890813815421612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-21 20:00:08FORECAST20233041946.8543.17845.0140000.060.06FF14.85543.85211445.3580420942700.0339789421201021612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-21 16:00:06FORECAST20233041946.41842.63844.5280000.070.07FF14.418554.418211445.3580420942700.030794250542661612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-21 12:00:07FORECAST20233041952.8846.20249.54100000FF20.88560.88211445.3580420942700.112617993479211612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-21 08:00:06FORECAST20233041955.47249.29852.38500000FF23.472570.472211445.3580420942700.171079912399041612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-21 04:00:12FORECAST20233041948.09247.44447.7680000.060.06FF16.092568.092211445.3580420942700.0446636733403151612415217.5DRYL