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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 31, 2023

[ Monday, October 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 1, 2023 ]

DAY 31 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/01/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.61°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.21°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.847
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 260

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.73 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.73 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 63
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 111

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-01 04:00:04OBSERVATION20243111150.8141.6100246.210010002.732.73FF18.81259.8163330.20729700452 00.8465037061096416 45215227.5DRYL
2023-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20243111146.05835.88840.9730002.732.73FF14.058255.05862329.1881295413500.696605279356211635215225DRYL
2023-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20243111145.39236.96841.180002.732.73FF13.392254.39262329.1881295413500.671348839094591635215225DRYL
2023-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20243111145.33837.2241.2790002.732.73FF13.338254.33862329.1881295413500.669264232620661635215225DRYL
2023-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20243111143.50235.47439.4880002.732.73FF11.502252.50262329.1881295413500.595649294766971635215225DRYL
2023-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20243111144.99635.16840.0820.3641002.732.73FF12.996247.99663330.4547485230.120318573937220.65594192902541635214220DRYL
2023-10-30 20:00:01FORECAST20243111146.25636.35641.3061.870368002.732.73FF14.256251.25663331.476017958390.61998213675680.703943471441311645214222DRYL
2023-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20243111146.436.53641.4681.8244152002.732.73FF14.4251.463331.444919106470.604693148380620.709228674319511645214222DRYL
2023-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20243111146.5838.0342.3050.6655584002.732.73FF14.58251.5863330.659454129710.220073177235440.715772507126791645214222DRYL
2023-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20243111146.61638.51642.5660.5649936002.732.73FF14.616251.61663330.591182930870.186781902572370.717072784883851645214222DRYL
2023-10-30 04:00:04FORECAST20243111146.18438.10242.1430.16788886666667002.732.73FF14.184251.18463330.321426934420.0554572900037350.70128445703291645214222DRYL
2023-10-30 00:00:03FORECAST20243111145.17636.89641.0361.3544176002.732.73FF13.176244.17663331.126636711220.448483744590480.662979082196451635214220DRYL
2023-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20243111145.84238.24642.0441.6112416002.732.73FF13.842245.84263331.300605020140.533805316913620.68850870879061635214220DRYL
2023-10-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243111145.73437.52641.631.6929136002.732.73FF13.734244.73463331.355904496790.560956917162920.68442567153281635214220DRYL
2023-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243111145.66237.77841.721.2617248002.732.73FF13.662244.66263331.063820272950.417711432421120.681691053951331635214220DRYL
2023-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243111146.32838.46242.3951.0040152002.732.73FF14.328245.32863330.889096831080.332217682732670.706591580655651645214222DRYL
2023-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20243111146.00438.53442.2690.97796633333333002.732.73FF14.004244.00463330.871429704820.323581118913180.694589950723351635214220DRYL
2023-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243111146.438.22842.3141.7416808002.732.73FF14.4249.463331.388918919430.577173717414720.709228674319511645214222DRYL
2023-10-28 20:00:02FORECAST20243111146.4938.26442.3771.9644584002.732.73FF14.49247.4963331.539682915620.651295915036920.712509385507011645214222DRYL
2023-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20243111146.63437.52642.081.7720864002.732.73FF14.634249.63463331.409500835130.587286269260730.71772185211791645214222DRYL
2023-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243111145.82436.84241.3331.9366112002.732.73FF13.824247.82463331.520842081190.642026975807850.687829791066551635214220DRYL
2023-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243111144.63635.9640.2982.3277512002.732.73FF12.636243.63663331.785357183460.772313763326220.64170664226891635214220DRYL
2023-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20243111144.70836.3240.5142.5106831666667002.732.73FF12.708242.70863331.908977883650.833318283638020.644570256246621635214220DRYL
2023-10-28 00:00:02FORECAST20243111144.90636.6840.7931.5226816002.72.7FF12.906241.90663331.240628767050.504374010596020.652402817237031635214220DRYL
2023-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20243111144.9637.90441.4321.4141464002.72.7FF12.96242.9663331.167106135580.468318770940050.654527901021361635214220DRYL
2023-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20243111147.01238.67842.8450.9198832002.72.7FF15.012250.01263330.832031764310.304326828041860.731184343847671645214222DRYL
2023-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20243111146.3138.37242.3411.1389216002.72.7FF14.31246.3163330.980575715460.376960926862770.705930581779081645214222DRYL
2023-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20243111146.92239.07442.9980.70852002.72.7FF14.922250.92263330.68861448550.234299497135270.72800841220861645214222DRYL
2023-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20243111146.09437.88641.991.6218315166667002.72.7FF14.094245.09463331.307776017750.537325392862330.697945524539581635214220DRYL
2023-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243111146.83237.70642.2691.0382584002.52.5FF14.832248.83263330.912319822830.343572495719540.724813952714241645214222DRYL
2023-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20243111147.08438.24642.6650.8169568002.52.5FF15.084254.08463330.762202241740.270218430304370.733711626276781645214222DRYL
2023-10-26 16:00:04FORECAST20243111145.51837.36441.4411.040128002.52.5FF13.518248.51863330.913587686640.344192488133330.676192156732431635214220DRYL
2023-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20243111146.56237.70642.1341.2176416002.52.5FF14.562252.56263331.033940598740.403080697084960.715121299816541645214222DRYL
2023-10-26 08:00:04FORECAST20243111144.7837.09440.9371.5878224002.52.5FF12.78245.7863331.28474594530.526021340390260.647425735702631635214220DRYL
2023-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20243111143.5237.440.461.85553265002.52.5FF11.52238.5263331.465978436960.615045945353980.596392735208251635214220DRYL
2023-10-26 00:00:04FORECAST20243111143.05234.28638.6690002.552.55FF11.052234.05263330.2072970045200.576957765091131635215225DRYL
2023-10-25 20:00:04FORECAST20243111143.73634.75439.2450002.572.57FF11.736239.73663330.2072970045200.605286140054791635215225DRYL
2023-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20243111142.69234.57438.6330002.552.55FF10.692234.69263330.2072970045200.561876635200741635215225DRYL
2023-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20243111139.86633.2636.5630002.552.55FF7.866231.86663330.2072970045200.442112428658881625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-25 08:00:04FORECAST20243111139.50633.42236.4640002.62.6FF7.506229.50663330.2072970045200.427005374615021625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-25 04:00:07FORECAST20243111139.09232.50435.79800.027559070.027559072.672.69755907FF7.092229.09263330.2072970045200.409764998600891625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-25 00:00:06FORECAST20243111144.18635.0639.6234.3196920903712002.742.74FF12.186240.18663333.128371789161.43901199269590.623633955045681635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 20:00:03FORECAST20243111143.19634.37638.7860002.62.6FF11.196239.19663330.2072970045200.582960065770151635215225DRYL
2023-10-24 16:00:04FORECAST20243111141.6335.3338.480002.672.67FF9.63235.6363330.2072970045200.516943875350521635215225DRYL
2023-10-24 12:00:04FORECAST20243111143.39434.89839.1462.8498236919681002.762.76FF11.394234.39463332.138008394920.946534765326930.591181487596711635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 08:00:04FORECAST20243111143.68233.20638.4443.3289739238194002.812.81FF11.682227.68263332.461255049241.10675484873920.603067729240571635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20243111144.52833.18838.8583.3125679288336002.752.75FF12.528227.52863332.450193660511.10126384945430.637396288540981635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 00:00:04FORECAST20243111144.5136.5940.552.9640111665787002.682.68FF12.51219.5163332.215077812220.984689200341220.636676183636791635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20243111142.4432.32437.3823.6885050439334002.722.72FF10.44218.4463332.703545464311.22717870557960.551264754479351635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 16:00:03FORECAST20243111142.85433.87238.3633.1941031606486002.672.67FF10.854218.85463332.370307659821.0616250502020.568675629327241635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20243111145.75237.07641.4142.0179047843602002.522.52FF13.752222.75263331.575839890890.669088473694070.685107759858131635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 08:00:05FORECAST20243111144.31235.13239.7222.4567730963207002.532.53FF12.312220.31263331.872552819260.815335559173630.628723657425531635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 04:00:06FORECAST20243111144.4232.1838.32.7120130541519002.552.55FF12.42222.4263332.044965044360.900510279765730.633068458687831635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 00:00:04FORECAST20243111143.57432.23437.9043.4735211598044002.662.66FF11.574218.57463332.558692990721.15514965698010.598620957961961635214220DRYL
2023-10-22 20:00:04FORECAST20243111144.40233.56638.9843.2977240889659002.632.63FF12.402210.40263332.440185124011.09629600662370.632345489987371635214220DRYL
2023-10-22 16:00:04FORECAST20243111150.73836.75243.74511.992287375392004.44.4TF18.738239.73863338.238390324364.05625197815960.844677401473551645213216.5WETMH
2023-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20243111146.05824.27835.16812.905073301062004.374.37TF14.058221.05863338.839712255074.37275132396260.696605279356211635213215WETM
2023-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20243111145.64425.75435.69911.83285902002004.334.33TF13.644232.64463338.133219576064.00108271722890.68100584320161635213215WETM
2023-10-22 04:00:05FORECAST20243111142.11624.99833.55715.983468954028004.724.72TF10.116209.11663340.857438310585.44808428298650.537567888539371635212210WETL
2023-10-22 00:00:04FORECAST20243111130.32627.10428.71516.569367986146005.045.04TF-1.674205.32663341.239680326685.65412583480770.12237088469135161521228WETL
2023-10-21 20:00:05FORECAST20243111126.13225.01625.5748.0683770340712003.363.36FF-5.868209.13263335.637472786652.70804967720550.0535430660068211615213212DRYL
2023-10-21 16:00:03FORECAST20243111135.02429.6632.34215.7260462045710055TF3.024221.02463340.689315101065.35769591068270.25400017244097162521229WETL
2023-10-21 12:00:04FORECAST20243111128.61627.82428.224.181024498618500.063.923.98TF-3.384264.61663333.035098644111.39242790633090.0891750443721011615214216DRYL
2023-10-21 08:00:04FORECAST20243111128.61627.82428.224.344998314305500.064.014.07TF-3.384269.61663333.14539018231.44751615876070.0891750443721011615214216WETL
2023-10-21 04:00:07FORECAST20243111129.82229.28229.5522.169896185300700.073.523.59FF-2.178277.82263331.678636661630.71970820843780.11179601081881615214216DRYL