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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 30, 2023

[ Sunday, October 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, October 31, 2023 ]

DAY 30 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/31/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.845
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 260

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 64
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 331.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 110

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-31 04:00:04OBSERVATION20243011050.9500440.5399245.744980.46388130434783002.792.79FF18.95004259.9500464331.53662885787 0.153793643833670.8446334798789216 45214222DRYL
2023-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20243011044.56432.21638.391.2769568002.792.79FF12.564253.56463331.074143772910.4227673791950.63660342735791635214220DRYL
2023-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20243011047.37235.0641.2161.9212408002.792.79FF15.372256.37263331.510442218490.63691138721620.739379092723341645214222DRYL
2023-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20243011047.13836.15841.6481.9056936002.792.79FF15.138256.13863331.499922316970.631737280359950.731413661761681645214222DRYL
2023-10-30 04:00:04FORECAST20243011047.0335.56441.2971.3895248666667002.792.79FF15.03256.0363331.150424486950.460141749431840.727696530609121645214222DRYL
2023-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20243011046.90435.3341.1172.45266002.792.79FF14.904249.90464332.878770098520.816438444269830.723327856921941645214222DRYL
2023-10-29 20:00:01FORECAST20243011047.51635.81641.6662.862496002.792.79FF15.516250.51664333.154509265240.953653450153710.744219826951051645214222DRYL
2023-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20243011047.15635.00641.0812.847244002.792.79FF15.156250.15664333.144252805080.948542974933750.73203069819811645214222DRYL
2023-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243011047.31834.4340.8742.419204002.792.79FF15.318250.31864332.856248103910.805247166837970.737551752123021645214222DRYL
2023-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243011047.19236.5941.8912.294236002.792.79FF15.192250.19264332.772104901830.763457742861560.733262628659371645214222DRYL
2023-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20243011046.92237.86842.3952.2489991333333002.792.79FF14.922248.92264332.741639521290.74833565890730.723954047784131645214222DRYL
2023-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243011048.50637.18442.8453.0056288002.792.79FF16.506253.50664333.250741930111.00162802756650.776189687248991645214222DRYL
2023-10-28 20:00:02FORECAST20243011048.4735.3341.93.2139416002.792.79FF16.47252.4764333.390734653791.07149835115840.775068337444851645214222DRYL
2023-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20243011049.1937.0443.1152.9894912002.792.79FF17.19254.1964333.239893865960.996217730201220.796884412068961645214222DRYL
2023-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243011048.66836.8642.7643.0504008002.792.79FF16.668252.66864333.280836365411.01664012987370.781196331192851645214222DRYL
2023-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243011047.60636.42842.0173.2980736002.792.79FF15.606249.60664333.447252996241.09973358209940.747221309404251645214222DRYL
2023-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20243011047.46236.55442.0083.5143631666667002.792.79FF15.462249.46264333.592496955791.17236518397780.742410060498711645214222DRYL
2023-10-28 00:00:02FORECAST20243011046.59835.43841.0182.532856002.762.76FF14.598247.59864332.932748852740.843270710528150.712577542289051645214222DRYL
2023-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20243011046.5835.29440.9372.5184896002.762.76FF14.58248.5864332.923079847510.838463314195920.711939074295021645214222DRYL
2023-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20243011048.30836.4142.3592.1645448002.762.76FF16.308254.30864332.684753237750.720111052660060.769983108642621645214222DRYL
2023-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20243011046.81436.1441.4772.3678392002.762.76FF14.814250.81464332.821666493050.788068188531560.720186514412781645214222DRYL
2023-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20243011048.07437.52642.82.01724002.762.76FF16.074255.07464332.585503275160.670904780626780.762525683175241645214222DRYL
2023-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20243011047.46234.64641.0542.7927915166667002.762.76FF15.462250.46264333.107632088550.930300169033830.742410060498711645214222DRYL
2023-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243011047.51636.03241.7742.2656016002.562.56FF15.516252.51664332.752821083940.75388532385230.744219826951051645214222DRYL
2023-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20243011048.14637.07642.6112.112688002.562.56FF16.146258.14664332.649817773440.702785278212130.7648342856911645214222DRYL
2023-10-26 16:00:04FORECAST20243011046.97637.02241.9992.2438552002.562.56FF14.976253.97664332.738175048060.74661628432010.725828439531981645214222DRYL
2023-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20243011046.99434.30440.6492.4186136002.562.56FF14.994256.99464332.855850639760.805049687196890.726451838488891645214222DRYL
2023-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20243011045.53635.56440.552.6254504002.562.56FF13.536251.53664332.995059113530.874262011147630.673818033448851635214220DRYL
2023-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20243011045.17636.26640.7212.89158625002.562.56FF13.176246.17664333.174070384330.963401560779860.660211723362881635214220DRYL
2023-10-26 00:00:04FORECAST20243011043.89833.45838.6780.55572948241811002.612.61FF11.898241.89864331.598762685330.18427920875760.610312216515381635214220DRYL
2023-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20243011044.85234.93439.8930002.632.63FF12.852246.85264331.222598980400.647784422849541635215225DRYL
2023-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20243011043.62835.1539.3890002.612.61FF11.628242.62864331.222598980400.599500319660231635215225DRYL
2023-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20243011040.94632.6336.7880002.612.61FF8.946242.94664331.222598980400.489284842405451625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-25 08:00:04FORECAST20243011040.8233.13436.9770002.662.66FF8.82240.8264331.222598980400.484060284153121625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-25 04:00:07FORECAST20243011040.53232.1836.3560.19583700095414002.732.73FF8.532240.53264331.355218261720.064891612194880.472130147338681625214218DRYL
2023-10-25 00:00:05FORECAST20243011043.89834.05238.9755.3740480903712002.82.8FF11.898246.89864334.838035770221.79943570671460.610312216515381635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 20:00:03FORECAST20243011043.30434.21438.7590.237754061083002.662.66FF11.304247.30464331.383595596090.0787877956292570.586425418924291635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 16:00:04FORECAST20243011044.27633.1738.7230.61717520987545002.732.73FF12.276245.27664331.64032164820.204680185116390.625304873293941635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 12:00:04FORECAST20243011041.43231.87436.6533.7179084919681002.822.82FF9.432242.43264333.729109971911.24077429198150.509445935377741635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 08:00:04FORECAST20243011041.2732.23436.7524.1746235238194002.872.87FF9.27235.2764334.035385363031.39447197752460.502725708812811635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20243011040.87431.1936.0324.1704191288336002.812.81FF8.874233.87464334.032567494681.39305580913320.486299097834711625214218DRYL
2023-10-24 00:00:03FORECAST20243011041.77429.37235.5734.0051815665787002.742.74FF9.774225.77464333.921798190471.33741743079130.523621961975891635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20243011040.31626.2433.2784.3542794439334002.782.78FF8.316227.31664334.155766188411.4550075837860.463198339560561625214218DRYL
2023-10-23 16:00:03FORECAST20243011040.08227.35633.7193.9489295606486002.732.73FF8.082227.08264333.884078265251.31848470649160.453543246599251625214218DRYL
2023-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20243011044.38429.78637.0853.1482255843602002.582.58FF12.384228.38464333.346579431381.04945022982480.629555043295471635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 08:00:04FORECAST20243011041.7226.2433.983.3834058963207002.592.59FF9.72226.7264333.50456533981.12838131282050.521385167419741635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 04:00:06FORECAST20243011043.19628.25635.7263.4922266541519002.612.61FF11.196229.19664333.577635388261.16492870953180.582044966614551635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 00:00:04FORECAST20243011041.01829.26435.1414.2068963598044002.722.72FF9.018226.01864334.057014251481.40534323722160.492271187569891625214218DRYL
2023-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20243011042.00830.4736.2394.1427832889659002.692.69FF10.008217.00864334.014044661381.38374780250310.533305238937161635214220DRYL
2023-10-22 16:00:04FORECAST20243011047.35433.02640.1913.32609937539200.384.084.46TF15.354240.35464340.098115708534.53218128731540.738770706687551645223233WETMH
2023-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20243011036.1425.12430.63213.37699970106200.174.264.43TF4.14226.1464340.13144394174.54993822393010.299210719135241625223227WETL
2023-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20243011036.6826.11431.39712.3046870200200.24.194.39TF4.68237.6864339.428409389544.17656034324140.318994920982781625223227WETL
2023-10-22 04:00:05FORECAST20243011034.17823.6328.90416.30641775402800.444.344.78TF2.178218.17864342.042310142085.57748479872950.232468923385491615222216WETL
2023-10-22 00:00:04FORECAST20243011036.17626.70831.44216.56936798614600.154.955.1TF4.176226.17664342.213138798955.67025542645390.300512239563591625222218WETL
2023-10-21 20:00:05FORECAST20243011033.60223.88228.7428.068377034071200.153.273.42FF1.602233.60264336.632179250812.71607534399660.214571672805521615223224DRYL
2023-10-21 16:00:02FORECAST20243011041.41430.41635.91515.75881340457100.484.585.06TF9.414237.41464341.686186219565.38456885155340.508699341039151635222220WETL
2023-10-21 12:00:04FORECAST20243011048.59629.1238.8584.181024498618500.673.374.04TF16.596286.59664334.039675364661.39662806621020.778979140649991645234266WETM
2023-10-21 08:00:04FORECAST20243011050.97229.1240.0464.344998314305500.763.374.13TF18.972291.97264334.149548590291.45187922535080.845178315626231645234266WETMH
2023-10-21 04:00:07FORECAST20243011050.05428.70639.382.169896185300700.732.923.65TF18.054299.05464332.688358156440.721899199257620.821328179248461645234266DRYH
2023-10-21 00:00:05FORECAST20243011038.85831.92835.3930.825911577570190.019685050.939685053.564.49968505TF6.858292.85864331.78145255020.274022142884260.403613513485751625234254WETM
2023-10-20 20:00:05FORECAST20243011039.68635.11437.41.83382416836710.019685050.929685053.684.60968505TF7.686288.68664332.461870765860.609676613670950.437269184079651625234254WETM
2023-10-20 16:00:04FORECAST20243011038.60631.20834.9072.76452891582620.019685050.949685053.374.31968505TF6.606282.60664333.088622754910.920833129138660.393498630538011625234254WETM
2023-10-20 12:00:04FORECAST20243011021.32620.31820.8225.02468613542100.674.85.47TF-10.674251.32664334.604496407611.68128257394890.0191954517203681615234248WETL
2023-10-20 08:00:04FORECAST20243011021.32620.35420.847.017229710473200.774.835.6TF-10.674240.32664335.933684540142.35732383190380.0191954517203681615234248WETL
2023-10-20 04:00:07FORECAST20243011025.75425.48425.6199.952362947172100.693.564.25TF-6.246247.75464337.879443818363.3626988572690.0539100499280841615233236WETL