Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 14, 2023

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DAY 14 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/15/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.31°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.38°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.321 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 316 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.39 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.45 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.92 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.37 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 80 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.95 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 94 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-15 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2024	14	94	43.44998	37.31	40.37999	0	0.38999999999999	0.44999999999999	6.92	7.37	T	T	11.44998	316.44998	80	346.95351932015	0	0.32099194416559	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.808	37.13	40.469	0	0.2362206	0.2962206	6.92	7.2162206	T	T	11.808	316.808	79	345.99810856281	0	0.33376321315566	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-14 12:00:01	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.682	37.364	40.523	0	0.25196864	0.31196864	6.92	7.23196864	T	T	11.682	316.682	79	345.99810856281	0	0.3292455914451	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.988	37.832	40.91	0	0.26771668	0.32771668	6.92	7.24771668	T	T	11.988	316.988	79	345.99810856281	0	0.34025881546296	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.952	37.13	40.541	0	0.31889781	0.37889781	6.92	7.29889781	T	T	11.952	316.952	79	345.99810856281	0	0.33895582266885	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-14 00:00:01	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.636	37.112	40.874	0	0.22834658	0.31834658	6.92	7.23834658	T	T	12.636	315.636	80	346.95351932015	0	0.3640255700471	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.466	35.888	39.677	0	0.26377967	0.36377967	6.92	7.28377967	T	T	11.466	313.466	80	346.95351932015	0	0.32155905171256	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-13 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.898	37.022	40.46	0	0.36614193	0.46614193	6.92	7.38614193	T	T	11.898	313.898	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33700494264094	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.898	37.238	40.568	0	0.2755907	0.3755907	6.92	7.2955907	T	T	11.898	313.898	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33700494264094	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.304	36.878	40.091	0	0.20866153	0.25866153	6.92	7.17866153	T	T	11.304	313.304	80	346.95351932015	0	0.31584360461847	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-13 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.528	37.598	41.063	0	0.34645688	0.39645688	6.92	7.31645688	T	T	12.528	315.528	80	346.95351932015	0	0.36002498099399	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.384	36.41	40.397	0	0.46850419	0.52850419	6.92	7.44850419	T	T	12.384	313.384	80	346.95351932015	0	0.35471467754108	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.546	36.428	40.487	0	0.4330711	0.5230711	6.92	7.4430711	T	T	12.546	315.546	80	346.95351932015	0	0.3606906963923	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.402	37.112	40.757	0	0.35826791	0.45826791	6.92	7.37826791	T	T	12.402	315.402	80	346.95351932015	0	0.3553769493533	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.79	37.31	40.55	0	0.40944904	0.46944904	6.92	7.38944904	T	T	11.79	314.79	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33311634296182	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	45.392	37.4	41.396	0	0.43700811	0.50700811	6.92	7.42700811	T	T	13.392	316.392	80	346.95351932015	0	0.39242307766982	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	45.698	37.454	41.576	0	0.44488213	0.55488213	6.92	7.47488213	T	T	13.698	318.698	80	346.95351932015	0	0.40409194534264	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	42.35	35.726	39.038	0	0.36220492	0.42220492	7.05	7.47220492	T	T	10.35	309.35	80	346.95351932015	0	0.28310706248154	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.718	36.212	39.965	0	0.33070884	0.39070884	7.1	7.49070884	T	T	11.718	314.718	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33053383671709	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.646	37.454	40.55	0	0.38976399	0.42976399	7.1	7.52976399	T	T	11.646	314.646	80	346.95351932015	0	0.32795936892382	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.402	36.986	40.694	0	0.50787429	0.50787429	7.1	7.60787429	T	T	12.402	316.402	80	346.95351932015	0	0.3553769493533	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.33	37.112	40.721	0	0.50393728	0.50393728	6.96	7.46393728	T	T	12.33	317.33	80	346.95351932015	0	0.35273050092701	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.898	36.518	40.208	0	0.44881914	0.44881914	6.99	7.43881914	T	T	11.898	312.898	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33700494264094	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.466	36.104	39.785	0	0.12992133	0.12992133	6.79	6.91992133	T	T	11.466	312.466	80	346.95351932015	0	0.32155905171256	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.736	36.32	40.028	0	0.13385834	0.13385834	6.86	6.99385834	T	T	11.736	310.736	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33117871378742	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.466	37.346	40.406	0	0.17716545	0.17716545	7.02	7.19716545	T	T	11.466	309.466	80	346.95351932015	0	0.32155905171256	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.294	37.814	41.054	0.42579632430479	0.29133874	0.29133874	7.18	7.47133874	T	T	12.294	311.294	80	347.22477691433	0.14784703371767	0.35140993347999	16	2	4	2	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2023-10-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.844	38.66	41.252	0	0.26771668	0.26771668	7.16	7.42771668	T	T	11.844	310.844	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33505843426651	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-10 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.934	38.714	41.324	0	0.30314977	0.31314977	7.28	7.59314977	T	T	11.934	312.934	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33830504640496	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.834	39.002	41.918	0	0.20866153	0.20866153	6.98	7.18866153	T	T	12.834	305.834	80	346.95351932015	0	0.37139830714359	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	45.158	39.614	42.386	0	0.23228359	0.23228359	7.04	7.27228359	T	T	13.158	309.158	80	346.95351932015	0	0.38356401878808	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	45.68	40.1	42.89	0	0.38188997	0.39188997	7.05	7.44188997	T	T	13.68	310.68	80	346.95351932015	0	0.40340306366057	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	47.156	39.092	43.124	0	0.24015761	0.28015761	6.48	6.76015761	T	T	15.156	317.156	80	346.95351932015	0	0.46069327887367	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	45.14	37.454	41.297	0	0.22047256	0.26047256	6.38	6.64047256	T	T	13.14	305.14	80	346.95351932015	0	0.38288500119051	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	14	94	46.634	39.002	42.818	0	0.05905515	0.05905515	6.57	6.62905515	T	F	14.634	305.634	80	346.95351932015	0	0.44027490449299	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2023-10-09 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.024	39.344	41.684	0.73542902134306	0.06692917	0.06692917	6.71	6.77692917	T	T	12.024	296.024	80	347.42184721286	0.25550410908895	0.34156371723201	16	2	4	2	1	4	2	16	WET	H
2023-10-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	14	94	44.942	39.2	42.071	0	0.07086618	0.07086618	6.57	6.64086618	T	F	12.942	297.942	80	346.95351932015	0	0.37543997042466	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2023-10-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.394	37.976	40.685	0	0.17322844	0.17322844	6.73	6.90322844	T	T	11.394	292.394	80	346.95351932015	0	0.31901353514874	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-08 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	41.36	36.806	39.083	2.0710768303856	0.41338605	0.41338605	6.43	6.84338605	T	T	9.36	285.36	80	348.27016593312	0.72129427137864	0.25095657021278	16	2	4	2	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2023-10-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.754	37.544	40.649	0	0.45669316	0.46669316	6.54	7.00669316	T	T	11.754	303.754	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33182409161985	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-08 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	14	94	42.548	37.004	39.776	0	0.37795296	0.37795296	6.6	6.97795296	T	T	10.548	298.548	80	346.95351932015	0	0.28976630686364	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	46.886	37.04	41.963	0	0.393701	0.393701	6.92	7.313701	T	T	14.886	298.886	80	346.95351932015	0	0.45011564474577	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	45.194	37.148	41.171	0	0.40944904	0.41944904	6.84	7.25944904	T	T	13.194	294.194	80	346.95351932015	0	0.38492312499955	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-07 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	47.804	39.236	43.52	0.074728349599561	0.16141741	0.16141741	6.83	6.99141741	T	T	15.804	292.804	80	347.00114695341	0.025930823020983	0.48617910288534	16	2	4	2	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2023-10-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	48.182	41.162	44.672	0	0.00787402	0.00787402	6.7	6.70787402	T	F	16.182	302.182	80	346.95351932015	0	0.50107867683894	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2023-10-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	48.506	38.984	43.745	0.25549005086915	0.02755907	0.02755907	6.73	6.75755907	T	T	16.506	295.506	80	347.11631688708	0.088684765458991	0.5138493304459	16	3	4	2	1	4	2	18	WET	H
2023-10-07 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	14	94	52.196	42.116	47.156	0	0	0	6.74	6.74	T	T	20.196	307.196	80	346.95351932015	0	0.65519203736886	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2023-10-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	53.636	43.448	48.542	0	0.12992133	0.12992133	6.46	6.58992133	T	F	21.636	310.636	80	346.95351932015	0	0.70598269480497	16	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2023-10-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	53.15	42.566	47.858	0	0.12204731	0.12204731	6.42	6.54204731	T	F	21.15	299.15	80	346.95351932015	0	0.68922536446395	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2023-10-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	54.518	41.918	48.218	2.0482351248335	0	0	6.95	6.95	T	T	22.518	301.518	80	348.25568250621	0.71330952133208	0.73527842491248	16	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	H
2023-10-06 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	53.222	42.656	47.939	0	0	0	7.08	7.08	T	T	21.222	301.222	80	346.95351932015	0	0.69173398604573	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2023-10-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	51.08	41.63	46.355	0	0	0	7.14	7.14	T	T	19.08	295.08	80	346.95351932015	0	0.61374364040911	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2023-10-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	14	94	55.85	45.446	50.648	0	0	0	6.94	6.94	T	T	23.85	313.85	80	346.95351932015	0	0.77652615081913	16	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2023-10-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	57.776	45.5	51.638	0	0	0	6.32	6.32	T	F	25.776	316.776	80	346.95351932015	0	0.82917948088289	16	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2023-10-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	57.416	45.734	51.575	0	0	0	6.29	6.29	T	F	25.416	317.416	80	346.95351932015	0	0.81999105282299	16	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2023-10-05 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	14	94	58.91	48.164	53.537	0	0	0	6.17	6.17	T	F	26.91	320.91	80	346.95351932015	0	0.85612677239709	16	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2023-10-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	14	94	59.198	44.312	51.755	0	0	0	5.45	5.45	T	F	27.198	321.198	80	346.95351932015	0	0.86248817772099	16	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2023-10-05 08:00:05	FORECAST	2024	14	94	59.18	44.636	51.908	0	0	0	5.37	5.37	T	F	27.18	320.18	80	346.95351932015	0	0.86209628968871	16	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2023-10-05 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	14	94	56.336	43.682	50.009	0	0.12992133	0.12992133	5.43	5.55992133	T	F	24.336	316.336	80	346.95351932015	0	0.79061470158859	16	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2023-10-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	47.93	38.858	43.394	0	0	0	6.88	6.88	T	T	15.93	310.93	80	346.95351932015	0	0.49114451146027	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2023-10-04 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	43.736	38.858	41.297	0	0	0	6.91	6.91	T	T	11.736	300.736	80	346.95351932015	0	0.33117871378742	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2023-10-04 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	14	94	41.702	38.552	40.127	0	0.06299216	0.23299216	6.94	7.17299216	T	T	9.702	291.702	80	346.95351932015	0	0.26184094986157	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	45.536	40.388	42.962	0	0.4724412	0.7124412	5.98	6.6924412	T	T	13.536	303.536	80	346.95351932015	0	0.39790296488073	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	14	94	45.536	40.388	42.962	0	0.4724412	0.7124412	5.88	6.5924412	T	T	13.536	302.536	80	346.95351932015	0	0.39790296488073	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-04 04:00:07	FORECAST	2024	14	94	49.496	46.382	47.939	0	0.01181103	0.01181103	5.39	5.40181103	T	F	17.496	320.496	80	346.95351932015	0	0.5527275995345	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH