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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 15, 2023

[ Saturday, October 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, October 16, 2023 ]

DAY 15 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/16/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.761
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 333

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.54 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 79
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 95

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-16 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024159555.9599838.7899647.3749700.0900000000000320.540000000000034.885.42TF23.95998332.9599879345.99810856281 00.7610647187367316 44235275WETMH
2023-10-16 00:00:01FORECAST2024159548.00238.71443.35800.047244120.497244124.885.37724412TF16.002325.00278345.0390603377700.491561945576981624235260WETMH
2023-10-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024159548.61437.47243.04300.031496080.481496084.885.36149608TF16.614325.61478345.0390603377700.513981177766911634225245WETMH
2023-10-15 08:00:01FORECAST2024159548.43437.88643.1600.019685050.469685054.885.34968505TF16.434325.43478345.0390603377700.507388699469741634225245WETMH
2023-10-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024159548.54238.49843.5200.035433090.485433094.885.36543309TF16.542325.54278345.0390603377700.511344543960261634225245WETMH
2023-10-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024159549.9137.61643.76300.035433090.335433094.885.21543309TF17.91327.9179345.9981085628100.561225127431061634225245WETMH
2023-10-14 20:00:01FORECAST2024159549.92838.55244.2400.007874020.317874024.885.19787402TF17.928327.92879345.9981085628100.561876754695111634225245WETMH
2023-10-14 16:00:02FORECAST2024159548.39837.70643.05200.023622060.333622064.885.21362206TF16.398326.39879345.9981085628100.50606990391661634225245WETMH
2023-10-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024159548.72239.18243.95200.023622060.333622064.885.21362206TF16.722326.72279345.9981085628100.517934946787971634225245WETMH
2023-10-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024159550.21639.99245.10400.051181130.381181134.885.26118113TF18.216328.21679345.9981085628100.572278804444591634225245WETMH
2023-10-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024159549.3738.91244.14100.03937010.41937014.885.2993701TF17.37327.3779345.9981085628100.541606986085821634225245WETMH
2023-10-14 00:00:02FORECAST2024159550.70239.5645.13100.015748040.335748044.885.21574804TF18.702327.70279345.9981085628100.589715278117811634225245WETMH
2023-10-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024159548.75837.34643.05200.007874020.367874024.885.24787402TF16.758322.75879345.9981085628100.519252497141691634225245WETMH
2023-10-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024159550.41438.46244.43800.023622060.493622064.885.37362206TF18.414325.41479345.9981085628100.579401636578371634235267.5WETMH
2023-10-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024159550.61237.95844.28500.031496080.411496084.885.29149608TF18.612325.61279345.9981085628100.586498569076511634225245WETMH
2023-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024159550.25237.88644.06900.055118140.315118144.885.19511814TF18.252324.25279345.9981085628100.573575689340511634225245WETMH
2023-10-13 04:00:04FORECAST2024159550.97238.33644.65400.090551230.490551234.885.37055123TF18.972327.97279345.9981085628100.599328434863861634235267.5WETMH
2023-10-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024159549.49637.9443.71800.326771830.856771834.885.73677183TF17.496323.49679345.9981085628100.546195423700481634235267.5WETMH
2023-10-12 20:00:02FORECAST2024159548.88438.19243.53800.322834820.842834824.885.72283482TF16.884325.88479345.9981085628100.523862173162521634235267.5WETMH
2023-10-12 16:00:02FORECAST2024159549.17238.53443.85300.338582860.798582864.885.67858286TF17.172325.17279345.9981085628100.534385603754981634235267.5WETMH
2023-10-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024159547.94838.0342.98900.244094620.714094624.885.59409462TF15.948323.94879345.9981085628100.489584024299651624235260WETMH
2023-10-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024159547.98438.8443.41200.232283590.742283594.885.62228359TF15.984324.98479345.9981085628100.490902613027861624235260WETMH
2023-10-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024159547.19239.23643.21400.19685050.74685054.885.6268505TF15.192327.19279345.9981085628100.461942089736481624235260WETMH
2023-10-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024159544.38436.44640.41500.200787510.620787515.015.63078751TF12.384314.38479345.9981085628100.361884176153241624235260WETMH
2023-10-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024159546.1337.56241.84600.228346580.618346585.065.67834658TF14.13322.1379345.9981085628100.423450036190071624235260WETMH
2023-10-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024159546.27438.69642.48500.248031630.678031635.065.73803163TF14.274322.27479345.9981085628100.428635015705231624235260WETMH
2023-10-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024159545.21237.79641.50400.133858340.643858345.065.70385834TF13.212322.21279345.9981085628100.390742779919691624235260WETMH
2023-10-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024159545.91437.1341.52200.114173290.614173294.925.53417329TF13.914323.91479345.9981085628100.415697626509381624235260WETMH
2023-10-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024159542.835.54639.17300.405512030.855512034.955.80551203TF10.8316.879345.9981085628100.308923314000231624235260WETM
2023-10-11 00:00:04FORECAST2024159543.53836.2339.88400.744094890.874094894.755.62409489TF11.538316.53879345.9981085628100.333188930179471624235260WETM
2023-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024159543.62836.4140.01900.779527980.909527984.825.72952798TF11.628315.62879345.9981085628100.336199169951291624235260WETMH
2023-10-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024159543.89836.33840.11800.696850770.876850774.985.85685077TF11.898313.89879345.9981085628100.345292406027661624235260WETMH
2023-10-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024159543.53835.97839.75801.173228981.463228985.146.60322898TT11.538315.53879345.9981085628100.333188930179471624245280WETH
2023-10-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024159544.20436.75240.47801.165354961.435354965.126.55535496TT12.204316.20479345.9981085628100.355706792512181624245280WETH
2023-10-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024159543.95237.09440.52300.870079211.170079215.256.42007921TT11.952317.95279345.9981085628100.34712202193531624245280WETH
2023-10-10 00:00:05FORECAST2024159545.48238.10241.79200.885827251.095827254.946.03582725TF13.482312.48279345.9981085628100.400293694131161624245280WETMH
2023-10-09 20:00:04FORECAST2024159545.9538.06642.00800.929134361.1591343656.15913436TT13.95315.9579345.9981085628100.416987504716641624245280WETH
2023-10-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024159546.27438.91242.59301.1811031.5611035.026.581103TT14.274318.27479345.9981085628100.4286350157052316242552100WETH
2023-10-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024159548.05637.79642.92600.657480670.937480674.445.37748067TF16.056326.05679345.9981085628100.493540074353031624235260WETMH
2023-10-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024159545.73435.13240.43300.633858610.893858614.345.23385861TF13.734311.73479345.9981085628100.409262116375071624235260WETMH
2023-10-09 04:00:06FORECAST2024159546.32836.12241.22500.377952960.437952964.534.96795296TF14.328313.32879345.9981085628100.43058261302131624225240WETMH
2023-10-09 00:00:04FORECAST2024159544.47438.94841.71100.665354690.735354694.675.40535469TF12.474301.47479345.9981085628100.364986528183641624235260WETMH
2023-10-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024159545.3238.24641.78301.06299271.13299274.535.6629927TF13.32304.3279345.9981085628100.394555595091851624245280WETMH
2023-10-08 16:00:04FORECAST2024159546.41836.12241.2701.019685591.189685594.695.87968559TF14.418299.41879345.9981085628100.433832340608351624245280WETMH
2023-10-08 12:00:04FORECAST2024159544.47431.58638.031.21699761629590.724409841.134409844.395.52440984TF12.474290.47479346.775578859370.42202505286150.364986528183641624244264WETM
2023-10-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024159545.4133.36839.38900.834646121.294646124.515.80464612TF13.41310.4179345.9981085628100.397740690721541624245280WETM
2023-10-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024159543.93432.19838.06600.850394161.230394164.565.79039416TF11.934303.93479345.9981085628100.346511751600741624245280WETM
2023-10-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024159545.6835.29440.48700.507874290.897874294.885.77787429TF13.68305.6879345.9981085628100.407336137570241624235260WETMH
2023-10-07 20:00:04FORECAST2024159545.06835.83440.45100.397638010.807638014.815.61763801TF13.068300.06879345.9981085628100.385675376569891624235260WETMH
2023-10-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024159544.88837.1124100.732283860.892283864.795.68228386TF12.888298.88879345.9981085628100.379368542518251624235260WETMH
2023-10-07 12:00:04FORECAST2024159542.8936.53639.71300.901575290.911575294.665.57157529TF10.89305.8979345.9981085628100.311841041711531624235260WETM
2023-10-07 08:00:04FORECAST2024159544.40236.96840.68500.980315491.010315494.695.70031549TF12.402301.40279345.9981085628100.36250392884481624245280WETMH
2023-10-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024159548.3840.3744.37500.677165720.677165724.75.37716572TF16.38316.3879345.9981085628100.505410480361634235267.5WETMH
2023-10-07 00:00:05FORECAST2024159550.77441.93646.35500.082677210.212677214.424.63267721TF18.774322.77479345.9981085628100.59228431834421634225245WETMH
2023-10-06 20:00:04FORECAST2024159550.21641.34245.77900.051181130.171181134.384.55118113TF18.216310.21679345.9981085628100.572278804444591634225245WETMH
2023-10-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024159551.92641.23446.580.2123863248335004.914.91TF19.926314.92679346.133963228380.0735141203501280.632779592527331634214218WETMH
2023-10-06 12:00:05FORECAST2024159553.2224147.11100.019685050.019685055.045.05968505TF21.222315.22279345.9981085628100.676613728426151634215222.5WETMH
2023-10-06 08:00:04FORECAST2024159550.97238.5744.77100.03937010.03937015.15.1393701TF18.972306.97279345.9981085628100.599328434863861634215222.5WETMH
2023-10-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024159557.75844.36651.0620004.94.9TF25.758332.75879345.9981085628100.809189792993731644215225WETMH
2023-10-06 00:00:04FORECAST2024159549.17243.98846.580004.284.28TF17.172327.17279345.9981085628100.534385603754981634215222.5WETMH
2023-10-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024159548.66843.1645.9140004.254.25TF16.668326.66879345.9981085628100.51595825841451634215222.5WETMH
2023-10-05 16:00:05FORECAST2024159552.46647.8450.1530004.134.13TF20.466334.46679345.9981085628100.651294639017511634215222.5WETMH
2023-10-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024159553.11448.4750.7920003.413.41FF21.114335.11479345.9981085628100.673042987895121634215222.5DRYL
2023-10-05 08:00:05FORECAST2024159553.11448.4750.7920003.333.33FF21.114334.11479345.9981085628100.673042987895121634215222.5DRYL
2023-10-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024159548.9247.60648.26300.074803190.204803193.393.59480319FF16.92325.9279345.9981085628100.525178664182271634225245DRYM