Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 30, 2022

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DAY 273 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/01/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.57°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.53°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.05°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.713 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 31 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 392 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.20 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.20 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 77 in SWE DAY: 180 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.72 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 35.09 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -12 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-01 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	273	-12	62.56994	41.52992	52.04993	76.838757083333	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	30.56994	391.56994	180	456.71525951191	35.093432881887	0.71324038085225	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-07-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	273	-11	45.81	45.81	45.81	77.924505333333	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.81	374.81	181	457.63809169954	35.661221917378	0.15574692991483	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2022-06-30 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	273	-11	60.49	52.54	56.515	78.206058666667	0.0122	0.0122	2.2	2.2122	F	F	28.49	389.49	181	457.73836350867	35.797913310543	0.64335197712973	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	273	-11	60.6	44.37	52.485	77.814098666667	0.0131	0.0131	2.2	2.2131	F	F	28.6	389.6	181	457.59875212537	35.607634447627	0.64719888212853	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-30 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	273	-11	61.89	42.98	52.435	77.772896416667	0.0125	0.0125	2.2	2.2125	F	F	29.89	390.89	181	457.58406831021	35.587638346607	0.69110446747792	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	61.13	45.12	53.125	79.061393333333	0.017	0.017	2.2	2.217	F	F	29.13	378.13	180	457.51007174452	36.171383736155	0.6655177917722	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-29 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	61.17	48.58	54.875	80.124369333333	0.0168	0.0268	2.2	2.2268	F	F	29.17	386.17	180	457.88860755489	36.688035905254	0.66688515915244	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-29 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	60.56	47.45	54.005	80.189368	0.0173	0.0273	2.2	2.2273	F	F	28.56	385.56	180	457.91172105358	36.719651511079	0.64580172271192	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	60.2	48.37	54.285	78.879554666667	0.0182	0.0282	2.2	2.2282	F	F	28.2	385.2	180	457.44521484182	36.083074831121	0.63314094691364	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-29 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	60.19	48.43	54.31	78.630274666667	0.0172	0.0372	2.2	2.2372	F	F	28.19	385.19	180	457.35625475645	35.962047932018	0.6327871085541	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	60.44	48.4	54.42	78.92296625	0.0185	0.0585	2.2	2.2585	F	F	28.44	387.44	180	457.46070129411	36.104155488936	0.64159852617487	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	60.66	48.04	54.35	81.067044	0.015	0.125	2.2	2.325	F	F	28.66	373.66	180	458.22344891337	37.146820494892	0.64929090101347	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	60.21	47.79	54	82.14888	0.0135	0.2135	2.2	2.4135	F	F	28.21	381.21	180	458.60673415261	37.674029571094	0.63349467223679	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	59.34	47.67	53.505	82.095689333333	0.0164	0.1964	2.2	2.3964	F	F	27.34	381.34	180	458.58791376303	37.648090900311	0.60232757354029	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	60.91	47.65	54.28	81.046636	0.0178	0.1878	2.2	2.3878	F	F	28.91	382.91	180	458.21620840731	37.136882252088	0.65795841252449	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	61.89	47.68	54.785	80.541297333333	0.0153	0.1753	2.2	2.3753	F	F	29.89	384.89	180	458.03680073433	36.890878157553	0.69110446747792	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-28 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	59.55	46.83	53.19	80.018012166667	0.0154	0.0954	2.2	2.2954	F	F	27.55	381.55	180	457.85077875935	36.636309185283	0.60991917012338	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	59.37	47	53.185	80.735128	0.0157	0.0957	2.2	2.2957	F	F	27.37	363.37	180	458.10564262046	36.985217694485	0.60341453594083	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	61.67	47.2	54.435	83.706865333333	0.0199	0.0899	2.22	2.3099	F	F	29.67	382.67	180	459.15686775524	38.434582096063	0.68378550893822	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	62.18	47.31	54.745	83.719876	0.0257	0.1557	2.22	2.3757	F	F	30.18	385.18	180	459.16145273672	38.440939887098	0.70063715756079	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-06-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	67.52	47.32	57.42	81.087457333333	0.023	0.143	2.22	2.363	F	F	35.52	391.52	180	458.23069093617	37.156761600111	0.84806370763493	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-06-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	61.66	47.83	54.745	80.301733333333	0.0201	0.1401	2.22	2.3601	F	F	29.66	384.66	180	457.95166911981	36.774312813214	0.68345108414167	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-27 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	62.45	47.08	54.765	80.000189	0.0268	0.1368	2.24	2.3768	F	F	30.45	386.45	180	457.84443846948	36.627641610157	0.70939064071202	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-06-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	63.36	46.85	55.105	81.758821333333	0.025	0.145	2.26	2.405	F	F	31.36	368.36	180	458.46866110033	37.483857349834	0.73797659717086	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-06-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	64.52	45.63	55.075	84.720554666667	0.0201	0.0901	2.23	2.3201	F	F	32.52	384.52	180	459.5136400351	38.930250460672	0.77220755374226	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-06-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	64.49	48.16	56.325	84.512766666667	0.0202	0.1002	2.23	2.3302	F	F	32.49	387.49	180	459.4405829943	38.828594787795	0.77135512276991	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-06-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	63.39	49.59	56.49	81.592090666667	0.0207	0.1107	2.23	2.3407	F	F	31.39	388.39	180	458.40959999572	37.402597645321	0.73889389084634	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-06-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	61.7	50.06	55.88	81.159076	0.0179	0.0779	2.23	2.3079	F	F	29.7	386.7	180	458.25609606677	37.191641328146	0.68478788151245	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-26 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	60.84	50.06	55.45	80.960789416667	0.0176	0.0876	2.22	2.3076	F	F	28.84	386.84	180	458.18574699069	37.095079775831	0.65553964427524	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	64.41	49.23	56.82	81.666348	0.0543	0.0743	2.21	2.2843	F	F	32.41	375.41	180	458.43590730491	37.438786341658	0.76907325352758	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-25 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	66.95	48.02	57.485	83.539630666667	0.0025	0.0325	2.21	2.2425	F	F	34.95	390.95	180	459.09792047628	38.352870716423	0.8351121476351	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	66.86	48.02	57.44	83.549142666667	0.0025	0.0325	2.23	2.2625	F	F	34.86	389.86	180	459.10127396064	38.357517836586	0.83300380776534	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-25 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	61.3	48.85	55.075	81.538557333333	0.0134	0.0434	2.21	2.2534	F	F	29.3	389.3	180	458.39063154549	37.376510791335	0.6713137355302	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	64.47	49	56.735	80.933452	0.0015	0.0315	2.21	2.2415	F	F	32.47	385.47	180	458.17604530992	37.08176897064	0.77078584342006	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	64.5	48.99	56.745	80.641847083333	0.0015	0.0215	2.21	2.2315	F	F	32.5	393.5	180	458.07251672596	36.939813846893	0.77163946494617	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	60.86	49.25	55.055	81.855534666667	0.0606	0.0706	2.21	2.2806	F	F	28.86	380.86	180	458.50290846236	37.531000718408	0.65623137511181	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	61.06	49.76	55.41	84.06786	0.0622	0.0722	2.22	2.2922	F	F	29.06	390.06	180	459.2840266968	38.611025256583	0.66311962004578	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	61.07	49.75	55.41	83.804038666667	0.0622	0.0922	2.25	2.3422	F	F	29.07	393.07	180	459.19110814635	38.482069382486	0.66346262487111	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	63.74	50.79	57.265	81.674389333333	0.001	0.041	2.23	2.271	F	F	31.74	395.74	180	458.43875582805	37.442705428989	0.74947254460755	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	63.37	51.51	57.44	81.391981333333	0.0058	0.0258	2.21	2.2358	F	F	31.37	392.37	180	458.33868211364	37.305093458938	0.73828254493155	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	63.69	51.52	57.605	80.694256753623	0.0058	0.0258	2.21	2.2358	F	F	31.69	398.69	180	458.0911294003	36.965323212385	0.74797531807325	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	65.04	52.49	58.765	83.009516	0.0116	0.0516	2.22	2.2716	F	F	33.04	389.04	180	458.910898807	38.093971597094	0.78669642045282	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-23 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	63.04	51.29	57.165	85.275596	0.0186	0.0586	2.22	2.2786	F	F	31.04	398.04	180	459.70860035515	39.201924881612	0.72809054184521	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-23 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	63.06	51.27	57.165	85.785636	0.0046	0.0446	2.22	2.2646	F	F	31.06	395.06	180	459.88751161956	39.451742672742	0.72871380775583	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-06-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	58.02	49.55	53.785	85.146801333333	0	0.1	2.21	2.31	F	F	26.02	394.02	180	459.66338523901	39.138866943154	0.5538312862402	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	51.43	48.84	50.135	85.204857333333	0	0.04	2.2	2.24	F	F	19.43	385.43	180	459.68376841696	39.167289906416	0.31424141717881	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	273	-12	50.47	49.04	49.755	84.99785775	0	0.04	2.2	2.24	F	F	18.47	386.47	180	459.61107812516	39.065957038807	0.28295928539221	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L