MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 29, 2022

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DAY 272 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/28/2022 04:00:06 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.20°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.371
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 361

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.08 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.67 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 83 in
SWE DAY: 179
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.28 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.90 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -13

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-28 04:00:06FORECAST2022272-1353.9644.4349.19582.71018150.03830.07832.592.6683FF21.96360.96179458.2756180328137.9040595445180.37061713002476162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-28 00:00:04FORECAST2022272-1353.2844.3948.83583.4460480.04730.07732.592.6673FF21.28343.28179458.5363463525338.2630459674770.34905953312124162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2022272-1350.6944.547.59586.5568573333330.04240.09242.592.6824FF18.69359.69179459.6331830789739.7844038534330.27178716714114162122125DRYL
2022-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2022272-1352.7344.4348.5886.5794346666670.10080.15082.592.7408FF20.73361.73179459.641111959539.7954676230120.33196884642401162122125DRYL
2022-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2022272-1352.7144.5348.6283.9650013333330.10480.14482.592.7348FF20.71362.71179458.7199263445638.5164192271480.3313536391074162122125DRYL
2022-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2022272-1352.5744.7548.6683.1240093333330.06790.13792.592.7279FF20.57361.57179458.422303284138.1058998167950.32705999229465162122125DRYL
2022-06-27 04:00:06FORECAST2022272-1351.4644.4747.96582.9438250.08290.15292.592.7429FF19.46363.46179458.3584541670338.0180034097010.29386069466189162122125DRYL
2022-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2022272-1350.6144.3747.4984.7037693333330.08490.18492.592.7749FF18.61343.61179458.9808487943538.8774079446950.26954195507235162122125DRYL
2022-06-26 20:00:03FORECAST2022272-1353.7344.2348.9887.7557573333330.0340.1042.592.694FF21.73358.73179460.053593576340.3723515182090.36327606352416162122125DRYL
2022-06-26 16:00:02FORECAST2022272-1355.8443.9649.987.6309533333330.07180.11182.592.7018FF23.84361.84179460.0098890408640.3111051194120.43216716686945162122125DRYL
2022-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2022272-1360.014452.00584.6895040.07280.12282.592.7128FF28.01364.01179458.9758151140438.8704341300040.57244914531452163122126DRYL
2022-06-26 08:00:03FORECAST2022272-1357.0444.6450.8484.2130293333330.02910.08912.592.6791FF25.04364.04179458.8075809413438.6375762721690.47243880689342162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-26 04:00:06FORECAST2022272-1358.3944.5151.4584.0109160833330.03990.08992.592.6799FF26.39365.39179458.7361570605538.5388447952050.51806302090804163121123DRYL
2022-06-26 00:00:03FORECAST2022272-1355.9945.9450.96584.8779053333330.00530.02532.592.6153FF23.99349.99179459.0422799039938.9625471776890.43717145026815162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-25 20:00:03FORECAST2022272-1354.6245.9650.2986.8158040.01190.04192.592.6319FF22.62362.62179459.7240946559439.9113168957280.39193718352592162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-25 16:00:02FORECAST2022272-1354.4145.9850.19586.8346640.0110.0612.592.651FF22.41362.41179459.7307137312439.9205620573320.38511484068459162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2022272-1358.4346.9752.784.47273600.042.592.63FF26.43367.43179458.8993036857538.7644797308310.51941419008082163121123DRYL
2022-06-25 08:00:03FORECAST2022272-1355.0247.1751.09584.11893333333300.042.592.63FF23.02360.02179458.7743333460838.5916075617830.40502278289576162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-25 04:00:07FORECAST2022272-1358.6546.752.67583.82853108333300.032.592.62FF26.65367.65179458.6716733757838.4497726286260.52684121902855163121123DRYL
2022-06-25 00:00:03FORECAST2022272-1359.2146.8953.0584.61483466666700.022.592.61FF27.21359.21179458.9494642395438.8339330369840.54569837487757163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 20:00:04FORECAST2022272-1358.4644.6151.53586.895220.00110.03112.592.6211FF26.46368.46179459.7519642243339.9502480767050.52042742145564163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 16:00:03FORECAST2022272-1358.3847.8953.13586.6282826666670.00110.08112.592.6711FF26.38371.38179459.6582652175639.8194061293360.51772519558521163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2022272-1360.0847.1553.61584.86544666666700.072.592.66FF28.08371.08179459.0378856800638.9564552051610.57477589024564163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2022272-1361.5248.1354.82584.64524933333300.032.592.62FF29.52367.52179458.9601982058638.8488004112110.62195122317562163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 04:00:06FORECAST2022272-1361.4348.1454.78583.95337408695700.032.592.62FF29.43374.43179458.7158158501138.5107404876680.61904762859378163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 00:00:03FORECAST2022272-1363.6749.2156.4486.42514400.062.592.65FF31.67362.67179459.5869179186639.7198655616360.68894430148979163121123DRYL
2022-06-23 20:00:03FORECAST2022272-1360.9848.454.6987.96191600.062.592.65FF28.98373.98179460.1257569883540.4735431856460.60443200066335163121123DRYL
2022-06-23 16:00:03FORECAST2022272-1361.1248.454.7687.86597600.062.592.65FF29.12371.12179460.0921790226340.426448359790.60899590871506163121123DRYL
2022-06-23 12:00:03FORECAST2022272-1359.2948.3553.8286.4785906666670.05920.10922.592.6992FF27.29375.29179459.6056932721239.7460526165490.54838486510129163122126DRYL
2022-06-23 08:00:04FORECAST2022272-1358.8248.3253.5785.99080.03280.04282.592.6328FF26.82372.82179459.4342420539639.5071180216130.53257403710535163121123DRYL
2022-06-23 04:00:08FORECAST2022272-1357.5248.3552.93585.4874524166670.03280.04282.592.6328FF25.52374.52179459.2570999719839.2607194808710.48865032456117162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-23 00:00:05FORECAST2022272-1356.2647.9552.10586.6474760.02790.03792.592.6279FF24.26368.26179459.6650044853139.8288124441810.44620400879326162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-22 20:00:04FORECAST2022272-1361.1350.4355.7887.580400.012.62.61FF29.13385.13179459.9921820640.2862993016880.60932133680645163121123DRYL
2022-06-22 16:00:04FORECAST2022272-1360.149.654.8588.190644002.612.61FF28.1381.1179460.2057763224440.5858437863960.57544020018175163121123DRYL
2022-06-22 12:00:04FORECAST2022272-1354.5349.5952.0687.788734666667002.612.61FF22.53371.53179460.0651394422440.3885364558780.38900911841483162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-22 08:00:04FORECAST2022272-1351.4549.3350.3988.060482666667002.622.62FF19.45358.45179460.1602457385140.5219333437450.29356879065768162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-22 04:00:08FORECAST2022272-1351.4349.6350.5388.234689416667002.612.61FF19.43365.43179460.2211800513940.6074728848060.29298538538625162121122.5DRYL