Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 20, 2022

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DAY 263 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/21/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.27°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.71°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.49°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.090 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 232 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.83 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.67 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.50 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 115 in SWE DAY: 170 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.64 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 53.23 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -22 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-21 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	263	-22	43.26998	35.70998	39.48998	114.5568575	0.019999999999982	0.82999999999998	6.67	7.5	T	T	11.26998	232.26998	170	464.64490829801	53.228260547995	0.089923954993737	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-21 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	263	-21	39.62	39.62	39.62	114.958344	0.0003	0.8103	6.67	7.4803	T	T	7.62	228.62	171	465.28562266213	53.488464668247	0.043008857412829	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-20 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	263	-21	47.82	41.59	44.705	115.12598933333	0.0083	0.8183	6.67	7.4883	T	T	15.82	236.82	171	465.34208038188	53.572967382396	0.19109050200804	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-20 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	263	-21	44.44	36.69	40.565	115.169832	0.0116	0.8216	6.67	7.4916	T	T	12.44	233.44	171	465.3568412594	53.595069227895	0.11104733815439	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-20 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	263	-21	47.9	37.13	42.515	115.40252216667	0.0199	0.8299	6.67	7.4999	T	T	15.9	236.9	171	465.4351554978	53.712390849481	0.1933346730478	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	47.84	37.46	42.65	116.713256	0.0212	0.4912	6.67	7.1612	T	T	15.84	235.84	170	465.37278483946	54.315172972401	0.19165004512182	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	47.92	36.99	42.455	116.78497866667	0.0239	0.5239	6.67	7.1939	T	T	15.92	236.92	170	465.39692586184	54.351370058308	0.19389821328565	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.97	38.18	43.575	116.69581733333	0.0186	0.5186	6.67	7.1886	T	T	16.97	237.97	170	465.36691452071	54.306372449886	0.22486782084686	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	49.22	38.45	43.835	116.178288	0.0205	0.5205	6.67	7.1905	T	T	17.22	238.22	170	465.1925819748	54.045277764132	0.2326339403985	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.85	38.34	43.595	116.277016	0.0164	0.5264	6.67	7.1964	T	T	16.85	235.85	170	465.22585672493	54.095074386018	0.22119283495033	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.52	38.25	43.385	115.78023541667	0.0201	0.5401	6.67	7.2101	T	T	16.52	238.52	170	465.05833981558	53.844564066332	0.2112653702734	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	47.39	37.84	42.615	117.085464	0.0211	0.0911	6.67	6.7611	T	T	15.39	237.39	170	465.49801796375	54.503051424366	0.17930320749557	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.09	37.44	42.765	117.169924	0.0247	0.2647	6.67	6.9347	T	T	16.09	238.09	170	465.5264189026	54.54569512281	0.19872852890135	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.06	37.56	42.81	117.11318	0.0158	0.2558	6.67	6.9258	T	T	16.06	238.06	170	465.50733855514	54.517044731529	0.19787089887531	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.17	37.53	42.85	116.869312	0.0162	0.2762	6.67	6.9462	T	T	16.17	238.17	170	465.42530586398	54.393935283713	0.20102645167266	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.24	37.56	42.9	116.992968	0.0143	0.2843	6.67	6.9543	T	T	16.24	236.24	170	465.46690780891	54.456355050347	0.20305012310241	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-18 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.48	37.39	42.935	116.54038958333	0.0137	0.3237	6.67	6.9937	T	T	16.48	238.48	170	465.31458192032	54.227942655801	0.21008000359176	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	47.41	37.08	42.245	117.79212266667	0.028	0.368	6.25	6.618	T	T	15.41	225.41	170	465.73545485127	54.859967828057	0.17984112720762	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	50.45	37.07	43.76	117.72537466667	0.0235	0.3735	6.51	6.8835	T	T	18.45	237.45	170	465.7130457853	54.826242802229	0.27292700869696	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	49.21	37.32	43.265	117.75489466667	0.0296	0.3596	6.51	6.8696	T	T	17.21	237.21	170	465.7229568973	54.84115773329	0.23232046492711	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	49.46	36.97	43.215	117.44006933333	0.0247	0.5147	6.51	7.0247	T	T	17.46	235.46	170	465.61721841431	54.682118413371	0.2402273677322	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	46.9	37.29	42.095	117.520484	0.0227	0.5527	6.67	7.2227	T	T	14.9	229.9	170	465.64423484362	54.722735850632	0.16644057317416	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	50.37	37.79	44.08	117.50643866667	0.0254	0.6054	6.6	7.2054	T	T	18.37	231.37	170	465.63951651564	54.715641288221	0.27020500017829	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	50.05	38.07	44.06	119.04297066667	0.0217	0.4717	6.57	7.0417	T	T	18.05	220.05	170	466.15469560511	55.492439755049	0.25945435725538	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	49.78	38.01	43.895	119.77324533333	0.0145	0.3845	6.64	7.0245	T	T	17.78	229.78	170	466.39884315671	55.862103064592	0.25055823283257	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	49.78	38.72	44.25	119.855136	0.0169	0.3569	6.68	7.0369	T	T	17.78	229.78	170	466.42619285441	55.903574778528	0.25055823283257	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.72	38.78	43.75	119.01206666667	0.0307	0.2807	6.68	6.9607	T	T	16.72	229.72	170	466.14435369873	55.476802898683	0.21725058334578	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-16 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	44.89	37.9	41.395	119.04158666667	0.028	0.328	6.64	6.968	T	T	12.89	224.89	170	466.15423247213	55.491739464864	0.12004841790134	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-16 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	44.89	37.93	41.41	118.826941	0.0278	0.3278	6.66	6.9878	T	T	12.89	225.89	170	466.08238509673	55.383144075029	0.12004841790134	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-16 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	50.87	38.63	44.75	117.33228666667	0.0275	0.3775	6.63	7.0075	T	T	18.87	221.87	170	465.58099866761	54.627683202221	0.28743646046705	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	49.93	38.17	44.05	118.35114666667	0.0403	0.3703	6.58	6.9503	T	T	17.93	231.93	170	465.92298488868	55.142519519931	0.25548051308356	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	49.86	38	43.93	118.19654933333	0.0416	0.4716	6.63	7.1016	T	T	17.86	231.86	170	465.87115034394	55.064362404605	0.253177188704	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.79	38.54	43.665	117.03493733333	0.017	0.397	6.49	6.887	T	T	16.79	233.79	170	465.48102470307	54.47754255598	0.21936828000095	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	50.74	38.54	44.64	116.95796666667	0.0147	0.4147	6.57	6.9847	T	T	18.74	231.74	170	465.45513353513	54.438685992831	0.28290669062092	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	50.79	38.34	44.565	117.11317841667	0.0161	0.2761	6.57	6.8461	T	T	18.79	234.79	170	465.5073380227	54.51704393212	0.28464485348349	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	51.78	39.2	45.49	114.92498533333	0.0058	0.2258	6.39	6.6158	T	T	19.78	243.78	170	464.76944952992	53.413622170608	0.32006374588062	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	49.28	39.37	44.325	114.734964	0.0061	0.2561	6.29	6.5461	T	F	17.28	247.28	170	464.70517800315	53.317931868805	0.23451971425839	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-14 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	50.02	39.33	44.675	114.56926933333	0.0061	0.2761	6.24	6.5161	T	F	18.02	249.02	170	464.64910923936	53.234508941937	0.25845791587241	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	45.21	39.19	42.2	114.30435466667	0.0574	0.2674	6.06	6.3274	T	F	13.21	245.21	170	464.55941677358	53.101164338627	0.12675336607818	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	51.11	39.75	45.43	114.42039576342	0.0135	0.2635	6.04	6.3035	T	F	19.11	247.11	170	464.59871237051	53.159568540608	0.29588796872401	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	51.27	39.71	45.49	114.71834229594	0.0135	0.2635	6.18	6.4435	T	F	19.27	247.27	170	464.69955451516	53.30956255964	0.30158488471921	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	50.88	42.84	46.86	113.1276237192	0.0378	0.2778	6.03	6.3078	T	F	18.88	259.88	170	464.16027936377	52.509349429262	0.28778631878459	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	51.95	42.96	47.455	114.4705175999	0.0249	0.0749	6.26	6.3349	T	F	19.95	262.95	170	464.61568180587	53.18479758135	0.32632694632164	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	52.15	43.13	47.64	115.24548314556	0.0059	0.0559	6.36	6.4159	T	F	20.15	257.15	170	464.87778227644	53.575064622086	0.33375845064026	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-13 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	48.53	42.3	45.415	115.42724105121	0	0.04	6.11	6.15	T	F	16.53	253.53	170	464.93917981563	53.666646782729	0.21156232186641	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-06-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	43.08	41.87	42.475	116.03222956757	0	0.03	6.24	6.27	T	F	11.08	242.08	170	465.14333992613	53.971618800133	0.086795694719965	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-06-13 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	263	-22	43.08	42.5	42.79	116.51926732421	0	0.03	6.39	6.42	T	F	11.08	242.08	170	465.30746845047	54.217285304333	0.086795694719965	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L