Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 21, 2022

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DAY 264 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/22/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.15°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.25°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.20°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.676 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 28 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 246 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.36 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.77 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 112 in SWE DAY: 171 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.34 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 52.09 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -21 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-22 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	264	-21	60.15002	38.24996	49.19999	112.17333208333	0	0.36	6.77	7.13	T	T	28.15002	246.15002	171	464.34419192236	52.087035241474	0.67624082716836	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-22 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-20	45.69	45.69	45.69	113.92516133333	0.0001	0.3601	6.77	7.1301	T	T	13.69	231.69	172	465.44144788987	53.025492042074	0.1609262722706	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-20	58.92	46.04	52.48	113.57812	0.0008	0.3608	6.77	7.1308	T	T	26.92	244.92	172	465.32463618852	52.850697367976	0.63083363630288	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-21 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	264	-20	53.96	43.26	48.61	113.34961333333	0.0014	0.3614	6.77	7.1314	T	T	21.96	239.96	172	465.24766619337	52.735643067255	0.43544608856337	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-21 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	264	-20	53.68	41.5	47.59	112.76570416667	0.0024	0.3624	6.77	7.1324	T	T	21.68	239.68	172	465.0507796646	52.441778642136	0.4244357619424	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	55.04	39.3	47.17	112.89478666667	0.0047	0.3447	6.77	7.1147	T	T	23.04	238.04	171	464.58870811929	52.44964309087	0.47830919931701	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-20 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	55.77	40.58	48.175	113.951968	0.0037	0.3537	6.77	7.1237	T	T	23.77	246.77	171	464.94620081915	52.981534597465	0.50745529563079	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-20 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	55.77	41.41	48.59	113.914576	0.0046	0.3546	6.77	7.1246	T	T	23.77	246.77	171	464.933572842	52.962710818461	0.50745529563079	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-20 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	55.89	41.54	48.715	113.022088	0.0059	0.3559	6.77	7.1259	T	T	23.89	246.89	171	464.63180674227	52.513656949224	0.51224677451718	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.14	41.78	48.96	113.05729333333	0.0059	0.3559	6.77	7.1259	T	T	24.14	243.14	171	464.64372325743	52.531361715807	0.52222254598416	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-20 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.27	42.06	49.165	113.2606275	0.0041	0.3641	6.77	7.1341	T	T	24.27	247.27	171	464.71252819522	52.633632550502	0.52740484525059	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.29	41.9	49.095	114.571416	0.0005	0.0205	6.77	6.7905	T	T	24.29	246.29	171	465.15522556756	53.293492853075	0.5282017325489	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-06-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.3	42.19	49.245	114.61022933333	0.0005	0.0505	6.77	6.8205	T	T	24.3	247.3	171	465.16831168113	53.313046880374	0.52860013406555	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-06-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.39	42.5	49.445	114.50084133333	0	0.05	6.77	6.82	T	T	24.39	248.39	171	465.13142765238	53.257939796772	0.53218441225544	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-06-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.38	42.46	49.42	113.97768133333	0	0.05	6.77	6.82	T	T	24.38	248.38	171	464.95488399639	52.994479602518	0.5317862825935	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-06-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.35	41.83	49.09	114.10505466667	0	0.06	6.77	6.83	T	T	24.35	246.35	171	464.99788854237	53.058609492012	0.53059170443472	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-06-19 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.42	41.8	49.11	113.59673941667	0.0002	0.0702	6.77	6.8402	T	T	24.42	249.42	171	464.82618504942	52.802739017103	0.53337860651773	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-06-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.25	41.82	49.035	114.948708	0.0002	0.0802	6.31	6.3902	T	F	24.25	247.25	171	465.28237682717	53.483608071453	0.52660784824856	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-06-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	58.09	41.16	49.625	114.967568	0.0002	0.1102	6.45	6.5602	T	F	26.09	250.09	171	465.28872964268	53.493113664828	0.59907876035079	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	57.81	42.04	49.925	114.88715333333	0	0.11	6.45	6.56	T	F	25.81	249.81	171	465.26164059286	53.45258544291	0.58820504803169	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	57.84	42	49.92	114.67805333333	0	0.13	6.45	6.58	T	F	25.84	249.84	171	465.19117579248	53.347218467726	0.58937349200127	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	54.13	41.3	47.715	114.9246	0	0.13	6.45	6.58	T	F	22.13	244.13	171	465.27425582856	53.471457741395	0.44215599602822	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-18 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	57.64	41.49	49.565	114.37389491667	0.0003	0.1303	6.49	6.6203	T	F	25.64	249.64	171	465.08861033361	53.193995845235	0.58156938040587	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.35	41.02	48.685	115.727144	0.0005	0.1805	6.07	6.2505	T	F	24.35	235.35	171	465.54433297196	53.87611606023	0.53059170443472	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	56.57	40.7	48.635	115.63574133333	0.0009	0.2009	6.31	6.5109	T	F	24.57	247.57	171	465.513601346	53.830010392395	0.5393448580423	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	55.54	40.21	47.875	115.806684	0	0.15	6.35	6.5	T	F	23.54	246.54	171	465.57107029815	53.91624181756	0.49826921105412	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-17 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	53.96	40.27	47.115	115.59501466667	0.0052	0.2152	6.44	6.6552	T	T	21.96	242.96	171	465.49990582955	53.809468441699	0.43544608856337	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	49.3	39.87	44.585	115.904756	0.0058	0.2458	6.61	6.8558	T	T	17.3	233.3	171	465.60402971034	53.965721456193	0.26464370866254	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-17 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	51.01	40.38	45.695	115.79526266667	0.0058	0.2758	6.57	6.8458	T	T	19.01	236.01	171	465.56723135552	53.910479843805	0.32352006959927	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	53.5	40.15	46.825	117.185288	0.0011	0.2211	6.45	6.6711	T	T	21.5	227.5	171	466.03363011044	54.612285162178	0.41738814331643	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-16 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	53.2	38.91	46.055	117.98165466667	0.0011	0.1411	6.51	6.6511	T	T	21.2	237.2	171	466.30009603262	55.014856901154	0.40570193291645	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	53.26	38.91	46.085	118.05381466667	0.0011	0.1511	6.52	6.6711	T	T	21.26	237.26	171	466.32421429491	55.051352368951	0.40803281770806	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-16 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	51.38	40.16	45.77	117.32292133333	0.0012	0.1012	6.49	6.5912	T	F	19.38	235.38	171	466.07972104197	54.681834446869	0.33693855099586	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-16 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	52.09	39.69	45.89	117.29979733333	0.0022	0.0922	6.51	6.6022	T	F	20.09	231.09	171	466.07197835578	54.670148603878	0.36326411712014	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-16 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	52.09	39.58	45.835	117.09859966667	0.0022	0.1122	6.51	6.6222	T	F	20.09	232.09	171	466.00459147297	54.568485099722	0.36326411712014	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-16 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	54.02	40.31	47.165	115.40124133333	0.0081	0.1781	6.47	6.6481	T	T	22.02	230.02	171	465.43472454701	53.711744972363	0.43781227233673	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	53.86	39.93	46.895	116.48668533333	0.0005	0.1505	6.43	6.5805	T	F	21.86	239.86	171	465.79943200336	54.259431864221	0.43150762046828	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	53.84	39.96	46.9	116.33137733333	0.0005	0.1205	6.61	6.7305	T	T	21.84	239.84	171	465.74731038497	54.181026106379	0.43072073020977	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	54.83	39.84	47.335	115.16987466667	0	0.06	6.46	6.52	T	F	22.83	242.83	171	465.35685562354	53.595090737437	0.46993930823746	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	54.48	40.46	47.47	115.020416	0	0.07	6.54	6.61	T	F	22.48	240.48	171	465.30652937864	53.519750576648	0.45602077028028	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	54.5	40.47	47.485	115.17267575	0	0.08	6.4	6.48	T	F	22.5	243.5	171	465.35779863174	53.596502849547	0.45681482693216	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-15 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	53.36	41.31	47.335	113.065444	0.0172	0.1072	6.16	6.2672	T	F	21.36	251.36	171	464.6464819927	52.535460789543	0.41192482756071	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	53.62	42.16	47.89	113.12191466667	0.0099	0.0699	6.12	6.1899	T	F	21.62	254.62	171	464.6655939061	52.563861662382	0.42208375344103	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-14 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	53.63	42.19	47.91	113.35610666667	0.0018	0.0518	6.1	6.1518	T	F	21.63	256.63	171	464.74482451605	52.681663900623	0.42247556433918	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	44.53	39.15	41.84	113.71428266667	0.0063	0.0863	5.88	5.9663	T	F	12.53	243.53	171	464.86590961794	52.861893448392	0.1341688854821	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	44.46	42.63	43.545	113.92823176342	0.0043	0.0543	5.88	5.9343	T	F	12.46	245.46	171	464.93818478752	52.969585272135	0.13265795105191	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-06-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	264	-21	43.37	42.6	42.985	114.4781369626	0.0043	0.0543	6.02	6.0743	T	F	11.37	244.37	171	465.1237707873	53.246502736752	0.11063032387091	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L