Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 16, 2022

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DAY 259 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/17/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.79°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.51°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.15°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.421 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 269 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.06 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.52 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.17 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.69 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 120 in SWE DAY: 166 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.57 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 55.89 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -26 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-17 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	259	-26	49.78994	36.51008	43.15001	120.31472	0.059999999999945	0.51999999999995	6.17	6.6899999999999	T	T	17.78994	268.78994	166	464.56826068737	55.894400205488	0.42077805144787	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-17 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	259	-25	39.04	39.04	39.04	121.96151466667	0.0002	0.4602	6.17	6.6302	T	T	7.04	258.04	167	465.62839202063	56.78874396264	0.1039478273592	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-16 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	259	-25	45.63	38.92	42.275	122.237728	0.042	0.502	6.17	6.672	T	T	13.63	264.63	167	465.7211588367	56.928696337725	0.27102146675803	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	259	-25	45.32	38.26	41.79	122.14430266667	0.0531	0.5131	6.17	6.6831	T	T	13.32	264.32	167	465.68978902998	56.881354540054	0.26099863858663	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-16 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	259	-25	44.99	37.43	41.21	122.07271966667	0.0669	0.5269	6.17	6.6969	T	T	12.99	263.99	167	465.66574827552	56.845084347606	0.25054229032629	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.37	37.76	41.565	120.85221866667	0.1296	0.4696	6.17	6.6396	T	T	13.37	251.37	166	464.75016719104	56.166088830742	0.26260225678064	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.7	37.55	41.625	121.87944266667	0.1311	0.4711	6.17	6.6411	T	T	13.7	261.7	166	465.09712211347	56.685778029061	0.27331093739066	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.39	37.73	41.56	121.90606533333	0.1701	0.5101	6.17	6.6801	T	T	13.39	261.39	166	465.10610214939	56.699254875556	0.26324511104528	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.43	36.46	40.945	120.966236	0.1415	0.4815	6.17	6.6515	T	T	13.43	261.43	166	464.78872233564	56.223742276192	0.26453322338073	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45	36.65	40.825	120.77200533333	0.1538	0.5038	6.17	6.6738	T	T	13	260	166	464.7230362318	56.125533010309	0.25085586039463	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-15 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.53	37.1	41.315	121.06792908333	0.1234	0.4734	6.17	6.6434	T	T	13.53	261.53	166	464.82310059597	56.275170179248	0.26776745609787	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.63	37.43	41.53	119.49495466667	0.1353	0.1653	6.17	6.3353	T	F	13.63	261.63	166	464.29034757808	55.480354036013	0.27102146675803	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	46.77	37.11	41.94	119.47051866667	0.1269	0.1669	6.17	6.3369	T	F	14.77	265.77	166	464.28205451163	55.46801786013	0.30944919463605	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	47.16	37.51	42.335	119.45444666667	0.1504	0.1904	6.17	6.3604	T	F	15.16	266.16	166	464.27659973094	55.459904321141	0.32312055492733	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.67	38.2	41.935	119.24944666667	0.1352	0.1852	6.17	6.3552	T	F	13.67	265.67	166	464.20700390872	55.356428354906	0.27232856513179	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.2	38.3	41.75	119.33317976342	0.1078	0.1778	6.17	6.3478	T	F	13.2	264.2	166	464.2354349878	55.398690615948	0.25717057482587	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	46.05	39.15	42.6	119.5093289626	0.1416	0.3016	6.17	6.4716	T	F	14.05	266.05	166	464.29522567252	55.487610860664	0.28489977558987	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.4	39.57	42.485	119.6098877192	0.168	0.458	5.75	6.208	T	F	13.4	264.4	166	464.32934654493	55.538381004967	0.26356683893346	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	47	39.43	43.215	119.80193893324	0.2474	0.5274	5.9	6.4274	T	F	15	271	166	464.394487767	55.635360064394	0.31748148667189	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	44.83	38.93	41.88	120.09643914556	0.2496	0.6196	5.9	6.5196	T	T	12.83	266.83	166	464.49431662514	55.784113430031	0.24555349930728	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	44.74	38.58	41.66	120.05865571787	0.1907	0.4907	5.9	6.3907	T	F	12.74	266.74	166	464.48151307984	55.765026066168	0.24277089600486	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	44.39	38.75	41.57	120.16508423423	0.0665	0.4065	5.98	6.3865	T	F	12.39	265.39	166	464.51757501564	55.818793530036	0.23211348915245	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	47.38	38.74	43.06	120.48626332421	0.0758	0.4558	6.08	6.5358	T	T	15.38	265.38	166	464.62634334381	55.981091951488	0.33094085140892	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	48.12	38.57	43.345	124.17190988627	0.0718	0.5318	5.83	6.3618	T	F	16.12	259.12	166	465.86816854491	57.847740243439	0.35777395028219	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	49.47	38.58	44.025	123.61575201672	0.078	0.548	6.3	6.848	T	T	17.47	266.47	166	465.68152316758	57.565571686652	0.40849358955633	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	49.37	38.51	43.94	123.18953714929	0.0795	0.4995	6.28	6.7795	T	T	17.37	267.37	166	465.53830781945	57.349448665542	0.4046717434713	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	47.52	38.22	42.87	123.89695446736	0.0638	0.4438	6.22	6.6638	T	T	15.52	264.52	166	465.77592705503	57.70821882633	0.33595634058086	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	43.7	37.77	40.735	123.88840730778	0.1143	0.4943	6.14	6.6343	T	T	11.7	260.7	166	465.77305863863	57.703882401611	0.21188500214854	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-12 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	45.88	38.4	42.14	123.22870554468	0.0517	0.3417	6.06	6.4017	T	F	13.88	264.88	166	465.55147552797	57.369305693728	0.2792417240103	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	43.74	38.12	40.93	122.87060324381	0.0572	0.3072	6.01	6.3172	T	F	11.74	250.74	166	465.43103921278	57.187792556466	0.21302881083639	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-11 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	43.65	36	39.825	125.70545708521	0.065	0.305	6.11	6.415	T	F	11.65	265.65	166	466.38145990219	58.626694593074	0.21046029590582	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	44.25	35.96	40.105	125.80205525704	0.0628	0.2828	6.15	6.4328	T	F	12.25	264.25	166	466.41372524809	58.675805236303	0.22792445592676	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	48.45	37.53	42.99	125.00903022522	0.0603	0.3103	6.16	6.4703	T	F	16.45	268.45	166	466.14860768241	58.272785387216	0.36998027451771	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	46.59	36.25	41.42	125.11177164969	0.0721	0.3121	6.12	6.4321	T	F	14.59	257.59	166	466.18298546388	58.32497922433	0.30322563687206	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-11 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	46.6	36.25	41.425	125.18164816117	0.0721	0.3021	6.19	6.4921	T	F	14.6	260.6	166	466.20636136008	58.360480698278	0.30356991992314	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-11 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	48.89	37.71	43.3	128.28255677565	0.0851	0.3851	5.73	6.1151	T	F	16.89	259.89	166	467.23954681933	59.93868369268	0.38645924327431	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	49.01	37.93	43.47	129.50443362531	0.0852	0.4052	6.52	6.9252	T	T	17.01	268.01	166	467.6444316972	60.562027264975	0.39099069140965	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-10 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	49.1	37.84	43.47	130.05833205405	0.0852	0.4352	6.68	7.1152	T	T	17.1	268.1	166	467.82755966617	60.844872099099	0.39439905122733	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-10 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	49.99	37.83	43.91	128.18312785592	0.0949	0.4049	6.56	6.9649	T	T	17.99	267.99	166	467.20654442575	59.88799621925	0.42849977744634	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	49.82	37.79	43.805	127.15724870279	0.0949	0.3649	6.67	7.0349	T	T	17.82	263.82	166	466.86554808951	59.365338609183	0.4219364111979	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-10 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	49.17	38.13	43.65	126.44667480195	0.0932	0.3132	6.7	7.0132	T	T	17.17	267.17	166	466.62883599738	59.003664678573	0.39705561207176	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	43.96	34.9	39.43	128.01588288175	0.1172	0.1772	4.93	5.1072	T	F	11.96	262.96	166	467.15101375986	59.802749465571	0.21938370474579	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-09 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	43.86	34.9	39.38	128.11704112551	0.0923	0.1523	6.22	6.3723	T	F	11.86	256.86	166	467.18460434233	59.854309167733	0.2164817350778	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	41.32	37.58	39.45	127.01697222302	0.0731	0.1431	5.87	6.0131	T	F	9.32	259.32	166	466.81885189985	59.293917144943	0.15045325293397	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-09 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	39.97	37.41	38.69	127.25844160936	0.0539	0.2739	6	6.2739	T	F	7.97	253.97	166	466.89922354442	59.416867576882	0.12147932686793	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-09 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	37.69	37.22	37.455	127.674202628	0.0556	0.2756	6.23	6.5056	T	F	5.69	252.69	166	467.03749166503	59.628639345713	0.081867388170993	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-09 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	259	-26	40.91	40.54	40.725	127.91111561328	0.0522	0.2822	6.48	6.7622	T	T	8.91	257.91	166	467.1162156661	59.749356266901	0.14120567744145	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L