Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 17, 2022

[ Thursday, June 16, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 18, 2022 ]

DAY 260 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/18/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.57°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.83°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.70°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.264 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 276 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.42 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.61 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.43 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.04 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 119 in SWE DAY: 167 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.52 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 55.13 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -25 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-18 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	260	-25	45.57002	35.83004	40.70003	118.67266291667	0.41999999999996	0.60999999999996	6.43	7.04	T	T	13.57002	275.57002	167	464.51880877781	55.125684012541	0.26352445555638	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	260	-24	35.28	35.28	35.28	119.98206933333	0.0031	0.1931	6.43	6.6231	T	T	3.28	265.28	168	465.46589037276	55.847560731007	0.049867842059168	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-17 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	260	-24	44.73	34.27	39.5	119.63925466667	0.2571	0.4471	6.43	6.8771	T	T	12.73	274.73	168	465.35052325006	55.674189760381	0.23725432404994	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-17 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	260	-24	40.51	33.69	37.1	119.58797733333	0.4218	0.6118	6.43	7.0418	T	T	8.51	270.51	168	465.33325829515	55.648263145447	0.1291279224209	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	260	-24	40.14	34.12	37.13	119.76619466667	0.3502	0.5402	6.43	6.9702	T	T	8.14	270.14	168	465.39325397058	55.738379051594	0.12161267477752	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	41.35	34.41	37.88	121.2866	0.3784	0.5084	6.43	6.9384	T	T	9.35	260.35	167	465.40144654934	56.446959087052	0.14736278237108	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	40.98	34.91	37.945	122.23248	0.4078	0.5778	6.43	7.0078	T	T	8.98	266.98	167	465.71939689157	56.926036866161	0.13912892141104	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	39.87	34.06	36.965	122.33416	0.4469	0.6169	6.43	7.0469	T	T	7.87	265.87	167	465.75353039786	56.977566908257	0.11632563968952	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	40.06	33.97	37.015	121.58888933333	0.4462	0.6162	6.43	7.0462	T	T	8.06	266.06	167	465.50314186721	56.600010000811	0.12002888930692	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	40.43	34.97	37.7	121.388044	0.3959	0.5759	6.43	7.0059	T	T	8.43	265.43	167	465.43558275672	56.498314998839	0.12747640571724	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	40.38	34.91	37.645	121.31230633333	0.4034	0.6034	6.43	7.0334	T	T	8.38	265.38	167	465.41009763894	56.459972335402	0.126451675547	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	40.66	36.01	38.335	120.00996933333	0.4281	0.5681	6.43	6.9981	T	T	8.66	252.66	167	464.97110384255	55.801167913031	0.13226424197053	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	41.48	36.11	38.795	121.06507333333	0.3797	0.5197	6.43	6.9497	T	T	9.48	264.48	167	465.32687158475	56.334831832378	0.15033154059257	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	41.8	35.55	38.675	121.01959066667	0.3888	0.5688	6.43	6.9988	T	T	9.8	263.8	167	465.31155506034	56.311813925872	0.15780749944173	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	42.82	37.09	39.955	119.94391466667	0.279	0.429	6.43	6.859	T	T	10.82	264.82	167	464.94879931372	55.767779109254	0.18323343891927	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	42.45	36.6	39.525	119.78439733333	0.3371	0.5071	6.43	6.9371	T	T	10.45	263.45	167	464.89492002588	55.687157818628	0.17372997677209	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	42.25	36.15	39.2	120.11301175	0.369	0.509	6.43	6.939	T	T	10.25	265.25	167	465.00589046939	55.853257985769	0.16872564968382	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	42.65	36.04	39.345	118.52801066667	0.4921	0.6621	6.1	6.7621	T	T	10.65	265.65	167	464.46979329469	55.052680613977	0.17882748780625	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	46.2	37.18	41.69	118.31448266667	0.389	0.539	6.12	6.659	T	T	14.2	273.2	167	464.39740631017	54.94493887933	0.28415549919537	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	46.95	37.28	42.115	118.214388	0.3184	0.4884	6.12	6.6084	T	T	14.95	273.95	167	464.36346023518	54.894442261264	0.30967918135887	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	48.42	39.31	43.865	117.88354533333	0.1421	0.3121	6.12	6.4321	T	F	16.42	275.42	167	464.25119692641	54.727577018929	0.36236079449176	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	47.79	38.44	43.115	118.00204643008	0.1321	0.2721	6.14	6.4121	T	F	15.79	272.79	167	464.2914181985	54.787337487349	0.33939012223319	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	46.28	38.44	42.36	118.29813429594	0.1493	0.2993	6.25	6.5493	T	F	14.28	273.28	167	464.39186251833	54.936690918134	0.2868295895317	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	50.25	40.41	45.33	118.19429438586	0.2554	0.4454	5.95	6.3954	T	F	18.25	275.25	167	464.35664465273	54.884305958117	0.43166270366236	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	46.89	37.23	42.06	118.75594693324	0.2677	0.5377	6.09	6.6277	T	T	14.89	278.89	167	464.54702143784	55.167721425865	0.307600865307	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	43.74	34.96	39.35	119.24096047889	0.2822	0.5522	6.18	6.7322	T	T	11.74	271.74	167	464.71120240941	55.4126101206	0.20823121283571	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	42.37	36.59	39.48	119.12516771787	0.1584	0.3684	6.11	6.4784	T	F	10.37	270.37	167	464.67202400977	55.354132793967	0.17171705133455	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	39.28	36.26	37.77	119.43621356757	0.2939	0.3939	6.22	6.6139	T	T	7.28	265.28	167	464.77724006383	55.511233705608	0.10534332943386	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	39.28	36.24	37.76	119.75575265754	0.2939	0.3939	6.37	6.7639	T	T	7.28	265.28	167	464.88524255985	55.67268212214	0.10534332943386	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	44.05	38.34	41.195	123.09442988627	0.0999	0.1899	6.2	6.3899	T	F	12.05	264.05	167	466.00847029606	57.363046973265	0.21708675690641	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	45.86	39.42	42.64	122.37509201672	0.048	0.138	6.69	6.828	T	T	13.86	272.86	167	465.7672685983	56.998312353094	0.27292543960659	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	45.89	39	42.445	121.90738514929	0.0483	0.1383	6.62	6.7583	T	T	13.89	273.89	167	465.6102048827	56.761322576075	0.27390741962123	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	45.2	37.36	41.28	122.80487846736	0.0135	0.0835	6.52	6.6035	T	F	13.2	271.2	167	465.911433593	57.216196978942	0.25177300045838	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-12 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	45.22	37.33	41.275	122.79611264111	0.0135	0.1335	6.44	6.5735	T	F	13.22	267.22	167	465.90849480862	57.21175200897	0.25240103993773	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-12 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	46.84	38.17	42.505	122.02746021135	0.0059	0.0659	6.27	6.3359	T	F	14.84	272.84	167	465.65054588218	56.82215346003	0.30587363207907	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	50.38	38.3	44.34	121.40231124381	0.0211	0.0811	6.19	6.2711	T	F	18.38	262.38	167	465.44038302117	56.505538244973	0.43669464455518	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-11 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	50.31	38.25	44.28	124.24131975188	0.0211	0.0911	6.28	6.3711	T	F	18.31	277.31	167	466.39212446252	57.945173065106	0.43398381149563	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	51.67	38.59	45.13	124.10848192371	0.0205	0.0805	6.3	6.3805	T	F	19.67	276.67	167	466.34774515571	57.877710699821	0.48705213909263	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	50.4	40.2	45.3	123.39516089189	0.0212	0.0912	6.33	6.4212	T	F	18.4	279.4	167	466.1091780638	57.51561702037	0.43746972035206	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	44.06	37.54	40.8	124.11765831636	0.075	0.155	6.28	6.435	T	F	12.06	263.06	167	466.35081134484	57.882370658057	0.21737598950209	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-11 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	44.01	37.56	40.785	124.18616816117	0.075	0.155	6.34	6.495	T	F	12.01	266.01	167	466.37370088605	57.917162844183	0.21593204833983	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-11 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	52.8	40.22	46.51	126.46991944232	0.0018	0.1018	5.95	6.0518	T	F	20.8	273.8	167	467.13444065002	59.078455077741	0.53136189406326	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	53.3	39.69	46.495	127.99574295864	0.0008	0.1008	6.76	6.8608	T	T	21.3	282.3	167	467.6402537749	59.855961719285	0.55087698579715	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-10 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	53.24	39.87	46.555	128.94493605405	0.0002	0.1002	6.95	7.0502	T	T	21.24	282.24	167	467.95392529509	60.340288973417	0.54854072051789	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-10 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	45.86	40.45	43.155	127.53483585592	0	0.25	6.64	6.89	T	T	13.86	274.86	167	467.48766886517	59.620963113388	0.27292543960659	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	41.57	40.39	40.98	126.76419536946	0	0.25	6.71	6.96	T	T	9.57	266.57	167	467.2321462667	59.228307072243	0.15240995938511	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-10 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	260	-25	42.96	41.51	42.235	126.16481346862	0	0.25	6.69	6.94	T	T	10.96	270.96	167	467.03306209505	58.923139162899	0.18691212972551	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L