Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 29, 2022

[ Friday, October 28, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 30, 2022 ]

DAY 29 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/30/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.16°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.52°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.489 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 303 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.35 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.46 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.81 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 15 in SWE DAY: 65 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.92 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 5.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 109 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 27.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-30 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2023	29	109	41.16002	29.87006	35.51504	14.62103375	0	0.35	2.46	2.81	F	F	9.16002	303.16002	65	341.91924489359	4.9992128193638	0.48880526507496	16	2	5	2	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	29	109	36.26	36.26	36.26	16.976712	0.0015	0.3515	2.46	2.8115	F	F	4.26	298.26	64	342.47754936998	5.81414272212	0.31140537423134	16	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	DRY	L
2022-10-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	29	109	40.51	34.24	37.375	16.662022182437	0.0109	0.3609	2.46	2.8209	F	F	8.51	302.51	64	342.2733054888	5.7029654085106	0.46430614081293	16	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	DRY	L
2022-10-29 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.09	30.72	35.905	16.613196975709	0.0204	0.3704	2.46	2.8304	F	F	9.09	303.09	64	342.24160171639	5.6857271425967	0.48616254548493	16	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	DRY	L
2022-10-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	29	109	40.99	32.14	36.565	16.226949333333	0.0311	0.3811	2.46	2.8411	F	F	8.99	302.99	64	341.99066010888	5.5494651140601	0.48238939226395	16	2	5	2	2	2	2	18	DRY	L
2022-10-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.64	30	35.82	31.50718	0.0323	0.1423	2.46	2.6023	F	F	9.64	300.64	65	352.66634380622	11.111521974244	0.50692797579295	16	3	5	2	2	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-10-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.78	29.91	35.845	31.498050666667	0.0405	0.2005	2.46	2.6605	F	F	9.78	307.78	65	352.66065713801	11.108123246673	0.51221295690003	16	3	5	2	2	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-10-28 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	29	109	40.62	32.57	36.595	31.450436	0.0435	0.2035	2.46	2.6635	F	F	8.62	306.62	65	352.63099579092	11.090398564738	0.46844507066707	16	2	5	2	2	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-10-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.22	32.96	37.09	31.057607380263	0.0489	0.2089	2.46	2.6689	F	F	9.22	307.22	65	352.3861480002	10.944270630833	0.49106944675885	16	2	5	2	2	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-10-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.21	32.52	36.865	31.27032089977	0.0454	0.4854	2.46	2.9454	F	F	9.21	303.21	65	352.51876142545	11.023374792963	0.49069193535347	16	2	5	2	2	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-10-28 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.4	32.56	36.98	31.547861575901	0.0484	0.6984	2.46	3.1584	F	F	9.4	308.4	65	352.6916827857	11.126668387495	0.49786569234762	16	2	5	2	3	1	2	13.5	DRY	L
2022-10-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.17	31.71	36.44	26.111678587973	0.0936	0.5836	2.46	3.0436	F	F	9.17	305.17	65	349.28238623433	9.1203494057911	0.4891819764891	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	40.13	32.67	36.4	25.902894666667	0.092	0.642	2.46	3.102	F	F	8.13	308.13	65	349.15050657361	9.0440087945895	0.45004050331405	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	40.36	32.62	36.49	25.896990666667	0.1056	0.7556	2.46	3.2156	F	F	8.36	310.36	65	349.14677625843	9.0418508060614	0.45866845118141	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.72	32.27	36.995	25.577245333333	0.0608	0.7208	2.46	3.1808	F	F	9.72	311.72	65	348.94466848491	8.9250433935971	0.50994817344722	16	3	5	2	3	2	2	30	DRY	L
2022-10-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.39	31.92	36.655	25.549092	0.0628	0.7628	2.46	3.2228	F	F	9.39	311.39	65	348.92686518538	8.9147645798929	0.49748808868571	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-27 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	29	109	40.34	31.79	36.065	25.508891416667	0.0635	0.7335	2.46	3.1935	F	F	8.34	308.34	65	348.90144136965	8.9000889830169	0.45791736190504	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-27 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	39.74	31.23	35.485	8.5724990090769	0.1336	0.9036	2.03	2.9336	F	F	7.74	311.74	65	337.95617641651	2.897128987442	0.43546644723597	16	2	5	2	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2022-10-26 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	40.44	30.89	35.665	8.507826512566	0.1505	1.0405	2.08	3.1205	F	F	8.44	311.44	65	337.91347242045	2.874909199612	0.46167425745533	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	40.75	31.54	36.145	8.4160533102146	0.142	1.222	2.08	3.302	T	F	8.75	312.75	65	337.85286147405	2.8433876931741	0.4733408991174	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	39.69	30.68	35.185	8.8265567367003	0.085	1.135	2.08	3.215	T	F	7.69	310.69	65	338.12386577747	2.9844694853173	0.43360387500445	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-26 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	29	109	39.98	32.35	36.165	8.5602276933778	0.2425	1.3125	2.11	3.4225	T	F	7.98	314.98	65	337.94807406432	2.8929124625291	0.44442601742247	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-26 04:00:18	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.3	31.77	36.535	8.2906350690974	0.3711	1.5911	2.18	3.7711	T	F	9.3	317.3	65	337.7700070546	2.8003278657762	0.4940897975902	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	DRY	H
2022-10-26 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.13	32.08	36.605	12.479478000919	0.556	1.486	1.52	3.006	T	F	9.13	309.13	65	340.52303041924	4.2495496669232	0.48767217265826	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-25 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	29	109	43.74	32.63	38.185	9.3203818374387	0.7254	1.6454	2.44	4.0854	T	F	11.74	318.74	65	338.44950280711	3.1544785988535	0.58555980241677	16	3	5	2	5	3	2	75	WET	M
2022-10-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	44.12	32.07	38.095	9.5017495621855	0.2424	1.4424	2.45	3.8924	T	F	12.12	317.12	65	338.56899738472	3.2169978226699	0.59952039347683	16	3	5	2	4	3	2	60	DRY	H
2022-10-25 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	29	109	39.84	31.43	35.635	13.067130776144	0.1846	1.6446	2.51	4.1546	T	F	7.84	313.84	65	340.90691450573	4.4546752343381	0.43919584880401	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	M
2022-10-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	29	109	37.72	31.06	34.39	13.839648276751	0.0963	1.5063	2.47	3.9763	T	F	5.72	305.72	65	341.4106904973	4.7250038744053	0.3617918575941	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	DRY	H
2022-10-25 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	29	109	39.45	29.19	34.32	14.11639076823	0.1378	1.2578	2.51	3.7678	T	F	7.45	307.45	65	341.59092013184	4.8220309114602	0.42468474705963	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-25 00:00:10	FORECAST	2023	29	109	38.13	27.72	32.925	5.8884040471512	0.3186	1.5386	2.19	3.7286	T	F	6.13	308.13	65	336.17792828646	1.9795514734849	0.37643199635276	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2022-10-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	36.56	28.9	32.73	6.0431913582302	0.3663	1.7663	2.75	4.5163	T	F	4.56	316.56	65	336.28080665087	2.0322092646913	0.32151249810258	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2022-10-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	36.3	28.77	32.535	5.787934287387	0.3303	1.5003	2.69	4.1903	T	F	4.3	316.3	65	336.11113007328	1.9453891341235	0.31274503194432	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2022-10-24 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	29	109	38.44	30.79	34.615	6.9328830078807	0.3528	1.5328	2.58	4.1128	T	F	6.44	313.44	65	336.87135058476	2.3354896623109	0.38762188876918	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2022-10-24 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	29	109	39.88	31.71	35.795	8.3272799992813	0.1366	1.2966	3.3	4.5966	T	F	7.88	311.88	65	337.79421833921	2.812907038249	0.44068914099722	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	WET	M
2022-10-24 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	29	109	39.84	31.63	35.735	NAN	0.1366	1.0266	3.69	4.7166	T	F	7.84	313.84	65	NAN	NAN	0.43919584880401	16	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	M
2022-10-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	35.45	29.28	32.365	17.902518934602	0.7555	1.9455	3.65	5.5955	T	F	3.45	340.45	65	344.0439703497	6.1592536935213	0.28483248453609	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	29	109	36.31	29.75	33.03	16.678400678788	0.5577	1.9177	3.48	5.3977	T	F	4.31	353.31	65	343.25343750774	5.7249183651254	0.31308033380879	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-23 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	29	109	35.48	30.52	33	15.211455172211	0.5577	1.8777	3.31	5.1877	T	F	3.48	356.48	65	342.3028439502	5.2069243660688	0.28579712062421	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	41.58	31.38	36.48	12.549623179718	0.5089	0.9889	3.19	4.1789	T	F	9.58	361.58	65	340.5688828684	4.2740111467358	0.5046625574247	16	3	5	2	3	3	2	45	WET	M
2022-10-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	38.49	32.15	35.32	12.871242822765	0.528	0.818	3.17	3.988	T	F	6.49	353.49	65	340.77901439181	4.3862494431396	0.38943575614239	16	2	5	2	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2022-10-23 04:00:21	FORECAST	2023	29	109	36.3	32.15	34.225	13.695111547844	0.528	0.818	3.16	3.978	T	F	4.3	348.3	65	341.31651001092	4.6743676777204	0.31274503194432	16	2	5	2	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2022-10-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	29	109	37.08	29.85	33.465	19.495376011286	0.6696	0.9596	3.12	4.0796	T	F	5.08	350.08	65	345.06896065759	6.7272491378434	0.33934464860622	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2022-10-22 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	36.18	30.14	33.16	18.014794683122	0.5274	0.7974	3.08	3.8774	T	F	4.18	357.18	65	344.11635479229	6.1991854786874	0.30873354476242	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-22 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	36.19	30.33	33.26	20.069537733153	0.4815	0.8015	3.74	4.5415	T	F	4.19	357.19	65	345.43741332041	6.9327692010767	0.30906697469883	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2022-10-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	29	109	34.45	28.25	31.35	24.658157211458	0.4506	4.1906	4.04	8.2306	T	T	2.45	351.45	65	348.36280738078	8.58998487102	0.25359807362472	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-22 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	29	109	37.23	30.65	33.94	21.420888379947	0.3272	3.7972	3.85	7.6472	T	T	5.23	355.23	65	346.30248813512	7.4181069440403	0.34455834257892	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-22 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	29	109	37.23	32.65	34.94	20.504486391328	0.2391	3.7091	3.79	7.4991	T	T	5.23	359.23	65	345.71617229866	7.0887325501598	0.34455834257892	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L