Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 28, 2022

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DAY 28 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/29/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.39°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.47°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.259 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 323 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.24 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.78 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.81 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 17 in SWE DAY: 66 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 5.74 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 108 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 27.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-29 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2023	28	108	36.55004	32.39006	34.47005	16.666633333333	0.24000000000001	0.78000000000001	2.03	2.81	F	F	4.55004	322.55004	66	344.21167583206	5.7368497901452	0.25934989189894	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	28	108	33.89	33.89	33.89	31.989668	0.0009	0.5409	2.03	2.5709	F	F	1.89	319.89	65	352.96669835607	11.291287495467	0.1861348787425	16	1	5	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2022-10-28 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.87	34.09	37.48	31.647837333333	0.0492	0.5892	2.03	2.6192	F	F	8.87	326.87	65	352.75394269387	11.163899397068	0.40341561269695	16	2	5	2	3	1	2	13.5	DRY	L
2022-10-28 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	28	108	37.25	31.93	34.59	31.797788	0.3332	0.8732	2.03	2.9032	F	F	5.25	323.25	65	352.8472948444	11.219763477836	0.28082276328604	16	2	5	2	3	1	2	13.5	DRY	L
2022-10-28 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.53	30.87	36.2	32.096361297252	0.5421	1.0821	2.03	3.1121	F	F	9.53	327.53	65	353.0330665263	11.331076853105	0.42728929917735	16	2	5	2	4	1	2	18	DRY	L
2022-10-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.23	31.32	36.275	26.647739921307	0.4831	0.9231	2.03	2.9531	F	F	9.23	325.23	66	350.56234370875	9.3416941613546	0.41639902881837	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	28	108	39.42	34.21	36.815	26.435238666667	0.5151	0.9751	2.03	3.0051	F	F	7.42	329.42	66	350.4288063852	9.2636691324679	0.35232485968922	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-27 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.1	32.98	37.04	26.417964	0.6197	1.0797	2.03	3.1097	F	F	9.1	331.1	66	350.41794769173	9.2573287270741	0.41169925226974	16	2	5	2	4	2	2	36	DRY	L
2022-10-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.22	32.98	37.1	26.008456	0.6303	1.0903	2.03	3.1203	F	F	9.22	331.22	66	350.16039523241	9.1071312323448	0.41603707386875	16	2	5	2	4	2	2	36	DRY	L
2022-10-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.89	33.21	37.05	26.105434666667	0.6473	1.1273	2.03	3.1573	F	F	8.89	330.89	66	350.2214123767	9.1426821996675	0.40413426909211	16	2	5	2	4	2	2	36	DRY	L
2022-10-27 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.78	33.57	37.175	25.95180075	0.5962	1.0962	2.03	3.1262	F	F	8.78	328.78	66	350.12474186406	9.0863675385013	0.40018572584139	16	2	5	2	4	2	2	36	DRY	L
2022-10-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.32	32.37	36.345	8.975328	0.6662	0.7662	2.03	2.7962	F	F	8.32	333.32	66	339.20691503589	3.0444933223152	0.38378825150486	16	2	5	2	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2022-10-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.33	33.45	36.89	8.9490333333333	0.723	0.943	2.03	2.973	F	F	8.33	332.33	66	339.18963674787	3.0354193655779	0.3841426318783	16	2	5	2	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2022-10-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.47	34.85	37.66	8.945390643548	0.8072	1.1272	2.03	3.1572	F	F	8.47	333.47	66	339.18724303673	3.0341623902716	0.38911399968958	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.16	33.71	36.935	9.2044454596098	0.8037	1.1037	2.03	3.1337	F	F	8.16	332.16	66	339.35741983809	3.1235968622136	0.37813156390922	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-26 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.7	33.07	36.885	9.0033556933778	0.9006	1.1506	2.03	3.1806	T	F	8.7	335.7	66	339.22533082935	3.0541663136604	0.39732042678508	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-26 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.9	33.34	37.12	8.873873735764	1.0509	1.3709	2.03	3.4009	T	F	8.9	336.9	66	339.14024283359	3.0094876936216	0.40449371878756	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-26 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.85	33.44	37.645	13.142530000919	0.7543	1.2143	1.24	2.4543	F	F	9.85	328.85	66	341.93066150287	4.4938339770354	0.43896676730105	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-25 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	28	108	42.32	34.31	38.315	10.042911170772	0.7062	1.2762	2.08	3.3562	T	F	10.32	336.32	66	339.90745281117	3.4136603548659	0.45621192882555	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	28	108	38.17	33.93	36.05	10.158077562185	0.8524	1.5724	2.08	3.6524	T	F	6.17	334.17	66	339.9829104336	3.4535727740021	0.31028839803567	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	DRY	H
2022-10-25 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	28	108	37.61	33.92	35.765	13.493804109477	1.036	1.886	2.08	3.966	T	F	5.61	334.61	66	342.15894476547	4.6170257749707	0.29219125482269	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	DRY	H
2022-10-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	28	108	38.58	33.21	35.895	13.965974517969	0.7988	1.8288	2.05	3.8788	T	F	6.58	328.58	66	342.46547444687	4.7828640894091	0.3238389060975	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	DRY	H
2022-10-25 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	28	108	39.17	31.86	35.515	14.213443610352	0.441	1.541	2.09	3.631	T	F	7.17	329.17	66	342.62598285759	4.8698950867879	0.34375098032784	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	DRY	H
2022-10-25 00:00:09	FORECAST	2023	28	108	39.23	32.24	35.735	5.5474746537199	0.4965	1.6765	1.73	3.4065	T	F	7.23	331.23	66	336.94470571355	1.869192214651	0.34580159907959	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2022-10-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	28	108	39.98	33.28	36.63	4.8856002869325	0.6739	1.8639	2.29	4.1539	T	F	7.98	340.98	66	336.50562890236	1.6440319971198	0.37179891868336	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2022-10-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	28	108	39.64	32.95	36.295	4.5977496122916	0.4402	1.5302	2.33	3.8602	T	F	7.64	340.64	66	336.31444295195	1.5462895996904	0.35993260341649	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2022-10-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	28	108	37.18	32.27	34.725	6.9636717705359	0.4611	1.5611	2.2	3.7611	T	F	5.18	336.18	66	337.88171233476	2.3528973419659	0.27863728353818	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2022-10-24 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	28	108	37.14	32.27	34.705	8.7365171775343	0.4736	1.7236	2.74	4.4636	T	F	5.14	333.14	66	339.04994951537	2.9621157079831	0.27739216323231	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	M
2022-10-24 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	28	108	37.18	32.27	34.725	NAN	0.4736	1.4536	3.13	4.5836	T	F	5.18	335.18	66	NAN	NAN	0.27863728353818	16	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	M
2022-10-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	39.5	31.71	35.605	15.819667568208	0.7126	1.7326	3.11	4.8426	T	F	7.5	365.5	66	343.66533044128	5.4366712822994	0.35508467364957	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	28	108	40.97	32.18	36.575	15.202009462621	0.9848	1.8948	2.95	4.8448	T	F	8.97	377.97	66	343.26616093918	5.218335426795	0.40701210742353	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-23 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.62	32.66	37.14	13.752638256951	0.9848	1.8548	2.78	4.6348	T	F	9.62	381.62	66	342.32702358438	4.7078997209348	0.43056761172946	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	M
2022-10-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	42.44	30.78	36.61	12.897306721688	0.0855	1.0955	2.57	3.6655	T	F	10.44	381.44	66	341.77117695213	4.4079276977841	0.46062952504346	16	2	5	2	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2022-10-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	42.49	31.98	37.235	13.273097489432	0.0996	0.8696	2.59	3.4596	T	F	10.49	376.49	66	342.015537463	4.5396055716468	0.4624716569117	16	2	5	2	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2022-10-23 04:00:21	FORECAST	2023	28	108	42.46	31.98	37.22	13.967570214511	0.0996	0.8496	2.6	3.4496	T	F	10.46	373.46	66	342.46650973858	4.7834250208922	0.46136627864732	16	2	5	2	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2022-10-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	42.27	33.24	37.755	18.851728017286	0.0929	0.8329	2.58	3.4129	T	F	10.27	374.27	66	345.61578157728	6.5154547127765	0.45437282819137	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-22 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.47	32.86	37.165	17.083965667477	0.1388	0.7588	2.59	3.3488	F	F	9.47	382.47	66	344.48044909862	5.8850921655179	0.42510652876174	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	DRY	L
2022-10-22 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.43	32.86	37.145	19.317972659476	0.1388	0.9288	3.13	4.0588	T	F	9.43	382.43	66	345.91437519541	6.6823644425447	0.42365261847272	16	2	5	2	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2022-10-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	28	108	37.63	33.45	35.54	22.433628028462	2.476	4.366	3.41	7.776	T	T	5.63	377.63	66	347.90066025948	7.8046740031172	0.29282906004035	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-22 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.13	33.74	37.435	20.965685077597	2.2547	4.1547	3.17	7.3247	T	T	9.13	379.13	66	346.96677900623	7.274396221033	0.41278271855549	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-22 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	28	108	41.13	33.74	37.435	20.581019724661	2.2547	4.1047	3.16	7.2647	T	T	9.13	383.13	66	346.72148489076	7.1358817195005	0.41278271855549	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-22 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	28	108	42.19	36.02	39.105	7.0114002115001	1.5537	3.8737	2.12	5.9937	T	T	10.19	381.19	66	337.91323250355	2.3692449098441	0.4514323168356	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2022-10-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	28	108	39.45	34.54	36.995	5.0681642851304	1.4402	3.7502	2.6	6.3502	T	T	7.45	385.45	66	336.62681265477	1.7060799893142	0.35335888870482	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2022-10-21 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	28	108	39.92	35.87	37.895	2.1166232862503	1.314	3.634	2.65	6.284	T	T	7.92	385.92	66	334.66070935762	0.70835065041938	0.36969562278783	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2022-10-21 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	28	108	36.69	32.77	34.73	3.8998509258777	0.0003	0.4603	3.12	3.5803	T	F	4.69	381.69	66	335.85032876425	1.3097662155876	0.2635747629933	16	2	5	2	2	4	2	36	DRY	L
2022-10-21 09:54:46	FORECAST	2023	28	108	35.94	32.77	34.355	4.7795110747694	0	0.46	3.34	3.8	T	F	3.94	371.94	66	336.43518235915	1.6079956800276	0.24135148285207	16	1	5	2	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2022-10-21 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	28	108	35.8	34.16	34.98	10.918256974255	0.0175	0.6375	3.37	4.0075	T	F	3.8	371.8	66	340.4804306434	3.7174528364696	0.23731869726088	16	1	5	2	3	3	2	36	WET	M
2022-10-21 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	28	108	35.8	35.2	35.5	11.114297256091	0.003	0.623	3.08	3.703	T	F	3.8	378.8	66	340.60857883206	3.7856249931141	0.23731869726088	16	1	5	2	3	3	2	36	DRY	L