Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 26, 2022
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Thursday, October 27, 2022 ]
DAY 26
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/27/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
DRY
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.08°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.069
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 378
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.43 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.65 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.46 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 68
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.00 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 106
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-10-27 04:00:06 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 30.14006 | 26.00996 | 28.07501 | 26.701062083333 | 0.43000000000006 | 1.6500000000001 | 0.81 | 2.4600000000001 | F | F | -1.85994 | 378.14006 | 68 | 352.46822795765 | 9.4112760370996 | 0.068815715551584 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-27 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 31.87 | 31.87 | 31.87 | 10 | 0.0025 | 1.2225 | 0.81 | 2.0325 | F | F | -0.13 | 379.87 | 67 | 340.85794953091 | 3.4085794953091 | 0.096231541019217 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-26 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 32.23 | 25.93 | 29.08 | 10.14777345961 | 0.0526 | 1.2726 | 0.81 | 2.0826 | F | F | 0.23 | 380.23 | 67 | 340.95441076905 | 3.4599281205391 | 0.10282661017108 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-26 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.16 | 25.47 | 30.315 | 10.052245026711 | 0.0792 | 1.2992 | 0.81 | 2.1092 | F | F | 3.16 | 383.16 | 67 | 340.8920573565 | 3.4267304882072 | 0.16882636149335 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-26 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.47 | 23.83 | 29.65 | 9.972017735764 | 0.149 | 1.369 | 0.81 | 2.179 | F | F | 3.47 | 383.47 | 67 | 340.83967963047 | 3.3988593303271 | 0.17712688301944 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-26 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 31.01 | 22.58 | 26.795 | 14.110655554482 | 0.2796 | 0.7096 | 0.81 | 1.5196 | F | F | -0.99 | 375.01 | 68 | 344.4925603157 | 4.8610158596966 | 0.081740687625513 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | DRY | L |
| 2022-10-25 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.38 | 25.35 | 30.365 | 10.903870831785 | 0.3577 | 1.6277 | 0.81 | 2.4377 | F | F | 3.38 | 386.38 | 68 | 342.42006862012 | 3.7337041984449 | 0.17469097642225 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-25 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.35 | 25.83 | 30.59 | 10.897714072193 | 0.3745 | 1.6445 | 0.81 | 2.4545 | F | F | 3.35 | 386.35 | 68 | 342.41607335045 | 3.7315524610961 | 0.1738837450361 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-25 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.44 | 25.41 | 30.425 | 14.307946772315 | 0.4327 | 1.7027 | 0.81 | 2.5127 | F | F | 3.44 | 386.44 | 68 | 344.61951596151 | 4.9307976910781 | 0.1763125464601 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-25 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.37 | 25.37 | 30.37 | 14.511998951111 | 0.4192 | 1.6592 | 0.81 | 2.4692 | F | F | 3.37 | 380.37 | 68 | 344.7507553323 | 5.003022599777 | 0.17442163597462 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-25 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.62 | 25.51 | 30.565 | 14.498653500868 | 0.4183 | 1.6983 | 0.81 | 2.5083 | F | F | 3.62 | 380.62 | 68 | 344.74217407461 | 4.9982973290436 | 0.18123403491423 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-25 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.73 | 25.31 | 30.52 | 6.1204831699386 | 0.4591 | 1.3791 | 0.81 | 2.1891 | F | F | 3.73 | 381.73 | 68 | 339.2971040714 | 2.0766622150779 | 0.1842834505653 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 64 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-24 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.15 | 25.2 | 30.175 | 5.5726509535992 | 0.457 | 1.937 | 0.81 | 2.747 | F | F | 3.15 | 391.15 | 68 | 338.93700926068 | 1.8887776478666 | 0.16856282118394 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-24 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 36.32 | 25.51 | 30.915 | 5.2178662908868 | 0.3626 | 1.8826 | 0.81 | 2.6926 | F | F | 4.32 | 392.32 | 68 | 338.70353879296 | 1.7673097776719 | 0.20117736431522 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-24 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.32 | 25.2 | 30.26 | 6.4156867255122 | 0.3796 | 1.7696 | 0.81 | 2.5796 | F | F | 3.32 | 391.32 | 68 | 339.49093624866 | 2.1780674931223 | 0.17307888405118 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-24 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.06 | 26.79 | 30.925 | 8.8362430079799 | 0.564 | 2.494 | 0.81 | 3.304 | T | F | 3.06 | 388.06 | 68 | 341.07481619784 | 3.0138199598262 | 0.16620283918608 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-24 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.16 | 24.14 | 29.65 | NAN | 0.5564 | 2.8764 | 0.81 | 3.6864 | T | F | 3.16 | 387.16 | 68 | NAN | NAN | 0.16882636149335 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 100 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-24 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 32.48 | 24.5 | 28.49 | 16.2095765132 | 0.5372 | 2.8372 | 0.81 | 3.6472 | T | F | 0.48 | 416.48 | 68 | 345.83994624561 | 5.6059190699891 | 0.10759523618755 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-23 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 32.63 | 25.21 | 28.92 | 15.875955895347 | 0.5338 | 2.6638 | 0.82 | 3.4838 | T | F | 0.63 | 425.63 | 68 | 345.62626094591 | 5.4871472750509 | 0.11053156508826 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-23 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 33.35 | 25.04 | 29.195 | 14.476398774808 | 0.5265 | 2.4865 | 0.82 | 3.3065 | T | F | 1.35 | 428.35 | 68 | 344.72786341666 | 4.9904180196071 | 0.1254227103285 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-23 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 30.61 | 25.79 | 28.2 | 13.457461480199 | 0.6157 | 2.3657 | 0.82 | 3.1857 | T | F | -1.39 | 426.61 | 68 | 344.07177978654 | 4.6303327229008 | 0.075587709849856 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-23 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 31.97 | 26.26 | 29.115 | 13.779959217712 | 0.5785 | 2.3385 | 0.83 | 3.1685 | T | F | -0.030000000000001 | 426.97 | 68 | 344.27961657867 | 4.7441590759436 | 0.098031606673877 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-23 04:00:20 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 30.66 | 25.05 | 27.855 | 14.423606336298 | 0.5567 | 2.3167 | 0.84 | 3.1567 | T | F | -1.34 | 423.66 | 68 | 344.69391258131 | 4.9717293015912 | 0.076337017204019 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-23 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 32.55 | 26.73 | 29.64 | 19.664379471644 | 0.5361 | 2.4461 | 0.67 | 3.1161 | T | F | 0.55 | 420.55 | 68 | 348.0421469999 | 6.844032850732 | 0.10895847514811 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-22 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 32.57 | 27.18 | 29.875 | 17.853975858077 | 0.4902 | 2.2502 | 0.83 | 3.0802 | T | F | 0.57 | 428.57 | 68 | 346.89054861739 | 6.1933754804099 | 0.10935023541671 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-22 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 32.89 | 26.33 | 29.61 | 20.127367326143 | 0.6072 | 2.9072 | 0.83 | 3.7372 | T | F | 0.89 | 428.89 | 68 | 348.33580442137 | 7.0110826884362 | 0.11575600097393 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-22 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 33.7 | 24.82 | 29.26 | 22.095013972146 | 0.6343 | 3.2143 | 0.83 | 4.0443 | T | F | 1.7 | 429.7 | 68 | 349.57997031855 | 7.7239743285707 | 0.13314452474894 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-22 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 32.33 | 26.06 | 29.195 | 21.845961100288 | 0.6793 | 2.9493 | 0.9 | 3.8493 | T | F | 0.33 | 427.33 | 68 | 349.42283478827 | 7.633477656337 | 0.10471535814825 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-22 04:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 34 | 27.57 | 30.785 | 21.559905013586 | 0.6334 | 2.7434 | 1.05 | 3.7934 | T | F | 2 | 430 | 68 | 349.24223003409 | 7.529629306268 | 0.14001788857844 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-22 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 34.28 | 26.97 | 30.625 | 8.4905708781667 | 0.7211 | 2.2211 | 0.62 | 2.8411 | T | F | 2.28 | 425.28 | 68 | 340.84922281301 | 2.8940044850619 | 0.14664638136083 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-21 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.08 | 27.56 | 31.32 | 6.1742896184637 | 0.6863 | 2.1263 | 1.16 | 3.2863 | T | F | 3.08 | 432.08 | 68 | 339.33244449505 | 2.0951367892537 | 0.16672543111884 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 90 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.08 | 27.56 | 31.32 | 3.2868726195836 | 0.7031 | 2.1031 | 1.25 | 3.3531 | T | F | 3.08 | 432.08 | 68 | 337.42912894895 | 1.1090865649922 | 0.16672543111884 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 90 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 34.83 | 29.16 | 31.995 | 4.4805749258777 | 0.226 | 2.076 | 1.27 | 3.346 | T | F | 2.83 | 432.83 | 68 | 338.21768158345 | 1.5154096635913 | 0.1602690018652 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 90 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 09:54:45 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 34.69 | 29.17 | 31.93 | 5.3156270747694 | 0.226 | 2.206 | 1.36 | 3.566 | T | F | 2.69 | 423.69 | 68 | 338.76789249576 | 1.800763781413 | 0.15672557086328 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 90 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.27 | 26.96 | 31.115 | 11.381775640922 | 0.3837 | 2.4137 | 1.34 | 3.7537 | T | F | 3.27 | 425.27 | 68 | 342.73000199451 | 3.9008759881141 | 0.17174271911952 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-21 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.27 | 26.02 | 30.645 | 11.532770589424 | 0.383 | 2.093 | 1.37 | 3.463 | T | F | 3.27 | 432.27 | 68 | 342.82784785703 | 3.9537549210011 | 0.17174271911952 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-21 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 36.15 | 28.9 | 32.525 | 13.021567773586 | 0.4651 | 1.9751 | 1.58 | 3.5551 | T | F | 4.15 | 418.15 | 68 | 343.79059316023 | 4.4766925087573 | 0.19621708190996 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-20 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 36.14 | 28.92 | 32.53 | 13.917424184575 | 0.4651 | 1.9951 | 1.53 | 3.5251 | T | F | 4.14 | 440.14 | 68 | 344.36815547131 | 4.792717695354 | 0.19592762369897 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-20 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 35.83 | 28.74 | 32.285 | 15.08187334313 | 0.2137 | 1.6837 | 1.59 | 3.2737 | T | F | 3.83 | 439.83 | 68 | 345.11691897153 | 5.2050096605 | 0.18708311629525 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-20 12:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 31.58 | 27.5 | 29.54 | 17.110957594067 | 0.89 | 2.34 | 1.59 | 3.93 | T | F | -0.42 | 435.58 | 68 | 346.41637961521 | 5.927515981486 | 0.091148473775744 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-20 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 33.03 | 28.33 | 30.68 | 17.784959046977 | 0.8521 | 2.2821 | 1.87 | 4.1521 | T | F | 1.03 | 432.03 | 68 | 346.84654212568 | 6.1686515472908 | 0.11864048888691 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-20 04:00:20 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 33.03 | 28.33 | 30.68 | 17.428036317723 | 0.8758 | 2.2558 | 1.94 | 4.1958 | T | F | 1.03 | 431.03 | 68 | 346.61883794397 | 6.0408856960946 | 0.11864048888691 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-20 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 39.49 | 32.08 | 35.785 | 7.4846516171707 | 0.4589 | 1.0389 | 1.8 | 2.8389 | F | F | 7.49 | 437.49 | 68 | 340.1916093454 | 2.5462156790349 | 0.30649848538238 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-19 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 39.48 | 32.08 | 35.78 | 9.0240846694709 | 0.4372 | 1.0172 | 1.64 | 2.6572 | F | F | 7.48 | 454.48 | 68 | 341.19732284233 | 3.078993530326 | 0.30613139849067 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-19 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 36.69 | 28.72 | 32.705 | 9.6387664138082 | 0.5763 | 1.2563 | 1.81 | 3.0663 | F | F | 4.69 | 442.69 | 68 | 341.59779787323 | 3.2925813811713 | 0.21222937517527 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2022-10-19 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 34.79 | 30.96 | 32.875 | 7.0601147327797 | 0.0747 | 0.7447 | 1.84 | 2.5847 | F | F | 2.79 | 440.79 | 68 | 339.91356640038 | 2.399828778015 | 0.15925130485309 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2022-10-19 09:06:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 34.79 | 30.97 | 32.88 | 5.4151149617738 | 0.0166 | 0.6866 | 1.6 | 2.2866 | F | F | 2.79 | 438.79 | 68 | 338.83336670758 | 1.8348216336064 | 0.15925130485309 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2022-10-19 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 34.76 | 31.53 | 33.145 | 5.2603484957991 | 0.0015 | 0.6715 | 1.6 | 2.2715 | F | F | 2.76 | 438.76 | 68 | 338.73150582648 | 1.7818457671541 | 0.15849080835919 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2022-10-19 04:00:21 | FORECAST | 2023 | 26 | 106 | 31.81 | 29.86 | 30.835 | 5.5458449052996 | 0.0268 | 0.6068 | 1.69 | 2.2968 | F | F | -0.19 | 436.81 | 68 | 338.91937655333 | 1.8795942977656 | 0.095163191121499 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |