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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 25, 2022

[ Monday, October 24, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 26, 2022 ]

DAY 25 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/26/2022 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.087
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 418

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.81 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 10 in
SWE DAY: 69
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.57 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.30 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 105

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 3
D3: 4
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 54.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-26 04:00:13OBSERVATION20232510531.6999427.6200629.669.63870235294120.810000000000061.22000000000010.812.0300000000001FF-0.30006417.6999469342.56985653522 3.30192888223270.08747303058904216 15343254DRYMH
2022-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20232510528.0328.0328.0313.0934936558030.02270.43270.811.2427FF-3.97414.0368343.837012609774.50202774323620.0431418415731241615323227DRYL
2022-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20232510535.2226.4830.8513.0376742858980.85711.26710.812.0771FF3.22421.2268343.800988700964.4823653098530.155571611614471615343254DRYMH
2022-10-25 08:00:01FORECAST20232510529.1625.0127.08513.4233833854020.83141.24140.812.0514FF-2.84415.1668344.049807880964.61831247486020.0542721935988781615343254DRYMH
2022-10-25 04:00:13FORECAST20232510529.2924.526.89513.3102168326410.87051.28050.812.0905FF-2.71415.2968343.976829921014.57840619165330.0556862305198471615343254DRYMH
2022-10-25 00:00:05FORECAST20232510533.2425.1529.1954.72001654073130.92110.92110.811.7311FF1.24416.2469339.359889049111.60178428957250.113894299048961615334254DRYMH
2022-10-24 20:00:01FORECAST20232510534.6525.2429.9454.00894898690031.04651.47650.812.2865FF2.65425.6569338.892514821141.35860280396030.142659641708941615344272DRYH
2022-10-24 16:00:01FORECAST20232510535.125.6530.3754.08610129795591.0871.5170.812.327FF3.1426.169338.943266734331.38495652213650.152791351368831615354290DRYVH
2022-10-24 12:00:02FORECAST20232510535.0925.8530.475.13812317408410.95751.38750.812.1975FF3.09426.0969339.634310538621.74508292169260.15256115574381615344272DRYH
2022-10-24 08:00:04FORECAST20232510535.3626.3330.8456.70673714262291.09921.92920.812.7392FF3.36423.3669340.661266028182.28472556592410.158857055393541615354290DRYVH
2022-10-24 04:00:14FORECAST20232510535.4626.2430.85NAN1.14042.32040.813.1304TF3.46422.4669NANNAN0.161231369330716153552112.5DRYVH
2022-10-24 00:00:02FORECAST20232510535.1526.3830.76513.8904697760771.11662.29660.813.1066TF3.15454.1569345.312455685464.79655222900190.153945773951621615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-23 20:00:01FORECAST20232510535.7726.8131.2913.5703710073880.94522.13520.812.9452TF3.77462.7769345.107005652844.68323010395760.168737682987431615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-23 16:00:03FORECAST20232510537.1327.7632.44512.1170671178380.8281.9680.812.778TF5.13465.1369344.172123199164.17035671689290.204258769050831615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-23 12:00:02FORECAST20232510537.9228.3233.1210.8248883583620.68331.76330.812.5733FF5.92465.9269343.337986169553.71659536947010.226790114172571615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20232510537.2327.8532.5411.2616104757820.69221.78220.812.5922FF5.23465.2369343.620208678243.86971694174140.207035044481291615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-23 04:00:19FORECAST20232510535.7527.9631.85511.7745422000280.67621.78620.812.5962FF3.75462.7569343.951280519884.04986886723490.16824674898241615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20232510534.0225.9129.96517.4001663096250.82461.95460.632.5846FF2.02458.0269347.554173096756.04750041348750.129252452343631615352245DRYM
2022-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20232510535.7328.1131.9215.7975510047690.75441.80440.792.5944FF3.73465.7369346.533027691255.47437317978970.167756732470921615352245DRYM
2022-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20232510534.1126.4230.26517.7136508393941.13132.34130.793.1313TF2.11466.1169347.75343179766.15998286906380.131112538413331615352245DRYM
2022-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20232510533.925.7829.8419.5240894503381.37662.61660.793.4066TF1.9465.969348.90109351986.81197615920110.126800824068911615352245DRYM
2022-10-22 08:00:04FORECAST20232510533.4326.8230.12518.769916074471.13692.30690.863.1669TF1.43465.4369348.423653975566.53988274348140.117510232463851615352245DRYM
2022-10-22 04:00:08FORECAST20232510536.127.9432.0218.8452703010340.89782.157813.1578TF4.1466.169348.471399112846.5670377084610.176970400096621615352245DRYM
2022-10-22 00:00:05FORECAST20232510537.5428.4532.9956.28377750227130.30651.54650.572.1165FF5.54460.5469340.384761457822.13890210616460.215781909755291615354290DRYVH
2022-10-21 20:00:02FORECAST20232510537.3528.2832.8154.47771783278580.26171.49171.112.6017FF5.35467.3569339.200724481641.51884513290530.210395816886491615344272DRYH
2022-10-21 16:00:05FORECAST20232510537.8327.8932.862.51542231472820.20981.43981.212.6498FF5.83466.8369337.908088911430.849981547174980.224154695894871615344272DRYH
2022-10-21 12:00:04FORECAST20232510536.6627.532.083.87960277507990.38741.88741.233.1174TF4.66467.6669338.807406683131.31443815518550.19150951844251615354290DRYVH
2022-10-21 09:54:44FORECAST20232510534.0623.928.984.69860935895950.65492.02491.323.3449TF2.06459.0669339.345830744431.59445349625970.130076893603691615354290DRYVH
2022-10-21 08:00:05FORECAST20232510534.0623.928.989.85879565133920.69992.06991.33.3699TF2.06460.0669342.712555636243.37873305316590.130076893603691615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-21 04:00:13FORECAST20232510537.7223.930.819.86308064080660.60081.75081.333.0808TF5.72466.7269342.715333048923.38022896670240.220957334243021615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-21 00:00:02FORECAST20232510537.2129.6233.41512.2199808467860.53951.54951.543.0895TF5.21452.2169344.238439219384.20658713398810.206478013873541615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-20 20:00:03FORECAST20232510537.1830.934.0413.0905525772080.54651.56651.493.0565TF5.18474.1869344.798729202984.5136058931860.205644131439231615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-20 16:00:04FORECAST20232510536.630.3433.4714.4116302412540.56111.51111.553.0611TF4.6473.669345.646596628454.98133094475730.189917716223451615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-20 12:00:07FORECAST20232510537.1231.2334.17512.1088774219760.81341.49341.553.0434TF5.12474.1269344.166845140744.16747414051750.203982363584831615343254DRYMH
2022-10-20 08:00:05FORECAST20232510535.0931.6133.3513.3853542037930.7211.4711.833.301TF3.09469.0969344.988179516754.61778897895340.15256115574381615343254DRYMH
2022-10-20 04:00:20FORECAST20232510535.0531.6133.3312.8471708960440.72271.42271.93.3227TF3.05468.0569344.642216290164.42767745067110.151642669202011615343254DRYMH
2022-10-20 00:00:03FORECAST20232510542.7330.236.4657.87099748717070.00810.63811.742.3781FF10.73467.7369341.420854196372.68732268544730.389559221800091625333245DRYM
2022-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20232510542.6730.2136.449.33082263467610.00810.65811.562.2181FF10.67484.6769342.370106571223.19459473983120.387317374734941625333245DRYM
2022-10-19 16:00:03FORECAST20232510541.3829.9935.6859.25982827243910.11380.76381.732.4938FF9.38476.3869342.324023814583.16986167405340.340137431401041625333245DRYM
2022-10-19 12:00:04FORECAST20232510540.0432.9536.4957.12948673277970.05260.73261.782.5126FF8.04476.0469340.937336607752.43070821805420.293655211845821625334260DRYH
2022-10-19 09:06:05FORECAST20232510540.0332.9536.495.47650562844040.05260.78261.492.2726FF8.03474.0369339.856192320021.8612243501010.293319592322111625334260DRYH
2022-10-19 08:00:04FORECAST20232510539.9932.9136.455.31977116246580.05260.78261.492.2726FF7.99473.9969339.753443198561.80741056947620.291978893407991625334260DRYH
2022-10-19 04:00:20FORECAST20232510538.9329.4934.215.54584490529960.04850.68851.582.2685FF6.93474.9369339.901635448541.88504175325530.257533134074261625334260DRYH
2022-10-19 00:00:20FORECAST20232510540.0430.735.371.1478965922290.84441.43441.532.9644FF8.04473.0469337.003432762330.386845092037350.293655211845821625344280DRYVH
2022-10-18 20:00:03FORECAST20232510541.1533.7237.4351.02119405647010.68081.26081.83.0608FF9.15484.1569336.919456358360.344060146342280.331958130222421625344280DRYVH
2022-10-18 16:00:04FORECAST20232510541.1533.6437.3951.6095895384440.13480.71482.062.7748FF9.15483.1569337.309206862790.542929370587180.331958130222421625334260DRYH
2022-10-18 14:52:30FORECAST20232510541.1533.6437.3952.30535923546390.05890.56892.162.7289FF9.15486.1569337.769330555130.778679645651720.331958130222421625334260DRYH
2022-10-18 14:49:43FORECAST20232510541.1533.6437.39500.05890.56892.162.7289FF9.15486.1569336.2416377430200.331958130222421625335275DRYVH
2022-10-18 12:00:04FORECAST20232510537.1533.4435.29500.0170.7672.212.977FF5.15480.1569336.2416377430200.20481224724611615335267.5DRYH
2022-10-18 08:00:04FORECAST20232510537.0336.0536.5400.0220.7222.63.322FF5.03480.0369336.2416377430200.201504738106021615335267.5DRYH
2022-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST20232510537.0536.7536.900.01890.72892.383.1089FF5.05481.0569336.2416377430200.202053760792591615335267.5DRYH