Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 22, 2022
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DAY 22
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/23/2022 04:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
DRY
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.49°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.053
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 567
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.18 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.81 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 7 in
SWE DAY: 72
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.56 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 102
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-10-23 04:00:14 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 29.37002 | 27.60008 | 28.48505 | 7.44093 | 0.18000000000006 | 0.81000000000006 | 0 | 0.81000000000006 | F | F | -2.62998 | 567.37002 | 72 | 344.0509675678 | 2.5600591661043 | 0.053350213172887 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-23 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 27.59 | 27.59 | 27.59 | 12.015458185032 | 0.0037 | 0.6337 | 0 | 0.6337 | F | F | -4.41 | 565.59 | 71 | 346.02814954565 | 4.1576867617098 | 0.037276702271797 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-22 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 33.6 | 26.46 | 30.03 | 11.550797045342 | 0.1639 | 0.7939 | 0 | 0.7939 | F | F | 1.6 | 571.6 | 71 | 345.73070499714 | 3.993465205765 | 0.11317488326053 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-22 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 32.59 | 26.45 | 29.52 | 11.846728483631 | 0.233 | 0.863 | 0 | 0.863 | F | F | 0.59 | 570.59 | 71 | 345.92018082526 | 4.0980224592454 | 0.095765294110378 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
| 2022-10-22 04:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.84 | 26.77 | 29.305 | 12.555691903844 | 0.368 | 0.998 | 0 | 0.998 | F | F | -0.16 | 569.84 | 71 | 346.37352948012 | 4.3489593197996 | 0.084169198949804 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-22 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.77 | 25.85 | 28.81 | 2.1518424914605 | 0.5407 | 0.5707 | 0 | 0.5707 | F | F | -0.23 | 562.77 | 72 | 340.61767775599 | 0.73295559233794 | 0.08314297094532 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-21 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 33.41 | 27.27 | 30.34 | 1.78168870988 | 0.5315 | 1.1115 | 0 | 1.1115 | F | F | 1.41 | 569.41 | 72 | 340.37566958465 | 0.60644348761681 | 0.10973873097988 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.59 | 27.13 | 29.36 | 1.8527660063447 | 0.6279 | 1.2079 | 0 | 1.2079 | F | F | -0.41 | 567.59 | 72 | 340.42215788639 | 0.6307226019384 | 0.080547189467758 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.59 | 26.83 | 29.21 | 1.756902949075 | 0.6531 | 1.2331 | 0 | 1.2331 | F | F | -0.41 | 567.59 | 72 | 340.35945641571 | 0.59797853272232 | 0.080547189467758 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 09:54:43 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 30.99 | 26.28 | 28.635 | 1.9308237012074 | 0.6496 | 1.3196 | 0 | 1.3196 | F | F | -1.01 | 564.99 | 72 | 340.4732020682 | 0.65739372817926 | 0.072334535862571 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 30.99 | 26.28 | 28.635 | 6.9190632974849 | 0.6496 | 1.2996 | 0 | 1.2996 | F | F | -1.01 | 565.99 | 72 | 343.7142570472 | 2.3781807007576 | 0.072334535862571 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 32.57 | 26.34 | 29.455 | 7.1393181748695 | 0.6245 | 1.3345 | 0 | 1.3345 | F | F | 0.57 | 567.57 | 72 | 343.85642082702 | 2.4549003947559 | 0.095441586111791 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-21 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.59 | 26.59 | 29.09 | 11.703038455185 | 0.7176 | 1.5376 | 0 | 1.5376 | F | F | -0.41 | 553.59 | 72 | 346.78425348394 | 4.0584294541751 | 0.080547189467758 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-20 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.7 | 26.46 | 29.08 | 12.580526801707 | 0.7068 | 1.4868 | 0 | 1.4868 | F | F | -0.3 | 574.7 | 72 | 347.34332211935 | 4.3697619733164 | 0.082126148728635 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-20 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.61 | 26.32 | 28.965 | 12.908373879505 | 0.6854 | 1.5454 | 0 | 1.5454 | F | F | -0.39 | 573.61 | 72 | 347.55188172786 | 4.4863296318687 | 0.080832560233028 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-20 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.79 | 26.03 | 28.91 | 11.810238928499 | 0.7592 | 1.5492 | 0 | 1.5492 | F | F | -0.21 | 574.79 | 72 | 346.85262028203 | 4.0964123185066 | 0.083435217380763 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-20 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.99 | 25.68 | 28.835 | 12.337629013891 | 1.029 | 1.829 | 0 | 1.829 | F | F | -0.010000000000002 | 574.99 | 72 | 347.18869088012 | 4.2834852658973 | 0.086400120486699 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-20 04:00:18 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.88 | 25.8 | 28.84 | 11.970295751263 | 1.0522 | 1.9022 | 0 | 1.9022 | F | F | -0.12 | 571.88 | 72 | 346.95466142724 | 4.1531499095632 | 0.084759853668464 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-20 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 33.18 | 25.68 | 29.43 | 7.9955259631215 | 0.9227 | 1.7427 | 0 | 1.7427 | F | F | 1.18 | 562.18 | 72 | 344.40830628939 | 2.7537255548515 | 0.10567987737536 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-19 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 32.51 | 25.6 | 29.055 | 9.4180494933404 | 0.7733 | 1.5633 | 0 | 1.5633 | F | F | 0.51 | 578.51 | 72 | 345.3225722409 | 3.2522650765324 | 0.094475279601374 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-19 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 32.48 | 26.03 | 29.255 | 9.6601394726482 | 0.8819 | 1.7319 | 0 | 1.7319 | F | F | 0.48 | 576.48 | 72 | 345.47783651856 | 3.337364085478 | 0.093994831064494 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-19 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 32.36 | 26.01 | 29.185 | 7.8036450799894 | 0.9205 | 1.7805 | 0 | 1.7805 | F | F | 0.36 | 576.36 | 72 | 344.28473004416 | 2.6866758397246 | 0.092091002411009 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-19 09:06:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 33.28 | 27.09 | 30.185 | 5.8863781141635 | 0.7659 | 1.4859 | 0 | 1.4859 | F | F | 1.28 | 576.28 | 72 | 343.04664747281 | 2.0193022778211 | 0.10743110166219 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-19 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 33.28 | 27.09 | 30.185 | 5.7231675348807 | 0.7659 | 1.4859 | 0 | 1.4859 | F | F | 1.28 | 576.28 | 72 | 342.940974872 | 1.9627086537678 | 0.10743110166219 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-19 04:00:18 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 33.2 | 25.82 | 29.51 | 5.7357363535872 | 0.814 | 1.584 | 0 | 1.584 | F | F | 1.2 | 573.2 | 72 | 342.94911425783 | 1.9670657020792 | 0.10602846610662 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 100 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-19 00:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 38.72 | 27.56 | 33.14 | 1.3732970806055 | 0.8133 | 1.5333 | 0 | 1.5333 | F | F | 6.72 | 570.72 | 72 | 340.1083972024 | 0.46706986896749 | 0.23504370538341 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 100 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-18 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 33.99 | 27.13 | 30.56 | 1.2971683736224 | 0.8654 | 1.7954 | 0 | 1.7954 | F | F | 1.99 | 578.99 | 72 | 340.05854401545 | 0.44111318847692 | 0.12046619153806 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 100 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-18 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 33.42 | 27.2 | 30.31 | 1.7345626747966 | 0.972 | 2.062 | 0 | 2.062 | F | F | 1.42 | 578.42 | 72 | 340.34484204406 | 0.59034945956916 | 0.10991769887177 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 100 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-18 14:52:27 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 35 | 27.58 | 31.29 | 2.7028616821933 | 1.0535 | 2.1635 | 0 | 2.1635 | F | F | 3 | 581 | 72 | 340.97751532731 | 0.92161506066766 | 0.14086126345145 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 100 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-18 14:49:42 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 35 | 27.58 | 31.29 | 0 | 1.0535 | 2.1635 | 0 | 2.1635 | F | F | 3 | 581 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.14086126345145 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 125 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-18 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 32.57 | 27.62 | 30.095 | 0 | 0.9794 | 2.2094 | 0 | 2.2094 | F | F | 0.57 | 578.57 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.095441586111791 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 125 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-18 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 32.6 | 25.51 | 29.055 | 0 | 1.3724 | 2.6024 | 0 | 2.6024 | T | F | 0.6 | 578.6 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.095927449664561 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 125 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-18 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 31.67 | 25.47 | 28.57 | 0 | 1.1973 | 2.3773 | 0 | 2.3773 | F | F | -0.33 | 579.67 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.081693236901254 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 125 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-18 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 34.61 | 27.12 | 30.865 | 0 | 1.218 | 1.948 | 0 | 1.948 | F | F | 2.61 | 572.61 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.13272511323317 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 125 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-17 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 36.41 | 26.25 | 31.33 | 0 | 1.0264 | 1.6064 | 0 | 1.6064 | F | F | 4.41 | 595.41 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.1730443899477 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 125 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-17 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 38.04 | 26.25 | 32.145 | 0 | 1.177 | 1.817 | 0 | 1.817 | F | F | 6.04 | 595.04 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.21562598427773 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 125 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-17 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 36.77 | 27.8 | 32.285 | 0 | 1.0232 | 1.5532 | 0 | 1.5532 | F | F | 4.77 | 593.77 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.18195702810747 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 125 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-17 08:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 34.84 | 26.61 | 30.725 | 0 | 0.793 | 1.363 | 0 | 1.363 | F | F | 2.84 | 583.84 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.13748343340524 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 100 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-17 04:00:27 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 34.84 | 26.61 | 30.725 | 0 | 0.793 | 1.343 | 0 | 1.343 | F | F | 2.84 | 597.84 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.13748343340524 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 100 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-17 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 38.77 | 29.17 | 33.97 | 0 | 0.3705 | 0.8305 | 0 | 0.8305 | F | F | 6.77 | 590.77 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.2365085634152 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 75 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-16 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 37.39 | 29.12 | 33.255 | 0 | 0.4788 | 1.0088 | 0 | 1.0088 | F | F | 5.39 | 605.39 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.19796399348581 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 110 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-16 16:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 37.37 | 29.11 | 33.24 | 0 | 0.4788 | 1.0088 | 0 | 1.0088 | F | F | 5.37 | 606.37 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.19743475050247 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 110 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-16 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 38.96 | 25.95 | 32.455 | 0 | 1.0101 | 1.1401 | 0 | 1.1401 | F | F | 6.96 | 597.96 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.24212050219474 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 100 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-16 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 39.23 | 27.17 | 33.2 | 0 | 0.9897 | 1.1197 | 0 | 1.1197 | F | F | 7.23 | 591.23 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.25021780380276 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 110 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-16 04:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 39.23 | 27.17 | 33.2 | 0 | 0.9897 | 1.1197 | 0 | 1.1197 | F | F | 7.23 | 600.23 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.25021780380276 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 120 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-16 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 43.67 | 32.15 | 37.91 | 0 | 0.516 | 0.536 | 0 | 0.536 | F | F | 11.67 | 605.67 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.40077208002328 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 90 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-15 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 39.59 | 31.28 | 35.435 | 0 | 0.5105 | 0.7105 | 0 | 0.7105 | F | F | 7.59 | 615.59 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.26123330250683 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 90 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-15 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 39.61 | 33.88 | 36.745 | 0 | 0.493 | 0.693 | 0 | 0.693 | F | F | 7.61 | 616.61 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.26185248950072 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 90 | DRY | VH |
| 2022-10-15 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 42.59 | 36.08 | 39.335 | 0 | 0.1619 | 0.3819 | 0 | 0.3819 | F | F | 10.59 | 622.59 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.36163067125235 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-15 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 40.86 | 38.18 | 39.52 | 0 | 0.0347 | 0.1547 | 0 | 0.1547 | F | F | 8.86 | 612.86 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.30198319937385 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2022-10-15 04:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 22 | 102 | 40.87 | 38.09 | 39.48 | 0 | 0.0294 | 0.1494 | 0 | 0.1494 | F | F | 8.87 | 611.87 | 72 | 339.20760493838 | 0 | 0.30231508886268 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |