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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 23, 2022

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DAY 23 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/24/2022 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 498

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.80 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 7 in
SWE DAY: 71
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.56 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 103

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 3
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 67.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-24 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023231030NAN00.80.010.81FF-3249871NAN NAN2.4893837948237E-616 15335267.5DRYH
2022-10-24 00:00:01FORECAST20232310331.431.431.470.00030.80030.010.8103FF-0.6529.470341.827734433492.39279414103440.0748634066264971615434260DRYH
2022-10-23 12:00:01FORECAST20232310338.0931.2334.666.80536611228490.01490.81490.010.8249FF6.09536.0970341.7011086712.32540114547980.21871493190041615434260DRYH
2022-10-23 08:00:01FORECAST20232310337.828.2133.0056.87540117661250.02050.82050.010.8305FF5.8535.870341.746679598412.34964552301430.210324000987721615434260DRYH
2022-10-23 04:00:17FORECAST20232310338.3627.6833.027.2865295615020.02660.82660.010.8366FF6.36536.3670342.014032208772.49209535613770.226697236603851615434260DRYH
2022-10-23 00:00:02FORECAST20232310337.2324.0430.63511.9570869935610.03950.65950.010.6695FF5.23534.2371345.990803544784.1370421369570.194392264226931615433245DRYM
2022-10-22 20:00:01FORECAST20232310337.0324.0230.52510.9345560905810.03560.81560.010.8256FF5.03540.0371345.33568742713.77609244425080.188980664635861615433245DRYM
2022-10-22 16:00:01FORECAST20232310337.4927.8532.6710.9038751637620.03910.81910.010.8291FF5.49540.4971345.31600443593.76528260441820.201566434471611615433245DRYM
2022-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20232310337.3127.0932.211.4812704891470.04290.82290.010.8329FF5.31540.3171345.686168609593.96891640616350.196583002055181615433245DRYM
2022-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20232310337.0527.0232.03511.7944045359660.04430.89430.010.9043FF5.05539.0571345.886689769454.07952754274710.18951762011871615433245DRYM
2022-10-22 04:00:08FORECAST20232310336.8426.7131.77512.5055903143240.0451.0350.011.045FF4.84537.8471346.341518678364.33120514143240.183926340460131615443260DRYH
2022-10-22 00:00:04FORECAST20232310336.9127.2332.072.09819761300980.04620.60620.010.6162FF4.91530.9171339.602952358760.712554104010240.185778606386271615434260DRYH
2022-10-21 20:00:02FORECAST20232310337.5427.3132.4251.71811440783930.04821.14820.011.1582FF5.54537.5471339.353469051960.58304808452840.202964011450511615444280DRYVH
2022-10-21 16:00:03FORECAST20232310337.9426.3332.1351.76888530671820.04261.24260.011.2526FF5.94536.9471339.386808567250.600336338968590.21435101191161615444280DRYVH
2022-10-21 12:00:03FORECAST20232310338.3726.4232.3951.64259966400140.03811.25810.011.2681FF6.37537.3771339.303873145040.557340428022430.226995995558921615444280DRYVH
2022-10-21 09:54:43FORECAST20232310337.7525.931.8251.83723588785370.03851.34850.011.3585FF5.75533.7571339.431685269840.623616073652420.208896597668331615444280DRYVH
2022-10-21 08:00:04FORECAST20232310337.7525.931.8256.82598609497590.03851.32850.011.3385FF5.75534.7571342.686184154242.33917112797720.208896597668331615444280DRYVH
2022-10-21 04:00:12FORECAST20232310338.0325.4731.757.04946927555350.03771.35770.011.3677FF6.03537.0371342.831014472132.41677670322810.216963270396631615444280DRYVH
2022-10-21 00:00:02FORECAST20232310338.3326.3432.33511.5504502503950.03641.576401.5764FF6.33523.3371345.730482871413.99334274245140.225802290076291615453275DRYVH
2022-10-20 20:00:02FORECAST20232310338.4526.1332.2912.443969207660.03581.525801.5258FF6.45544.4571346.302142264394.30937319488460.229394030643821615453275DRYVH
2022-10-20 16:00:04FORECAST20232310337.2626.0231.6412.9302640992770.0391.58901.589FF5.26542.2671346.612721325494.48179402690790.195212047177271615453275DRYVH
2022-10-20 12:00:05FORECAST20232310338.1324.0431.08511.6996829267540.03911.589101.5891FF6.13544.1371345.8260498654.04605513123230.219887205810781615453275DRYVH
2022-10-20 08:00:04FORECAST20232310335.8526.8731.3612.3359582983150.03931.869301.8693FF3.85541.8571346.233107499014.27111717560380.158969261598941615453275DRYVH
2022-10-20 04:00:19FORECAST20232310337.5924.5531.0711.8643231291010.041.9401.94FF5.59540.5971345.931441652414.104242404280.204367347643951615453275DRYVH
2022-10-20 00:00:03FORECAST20232310337.2226.9432.087.9606464353180.06411.804101.8041FF5.22530.2271343.420660978742.73385046063490.194119468660941615453275DRYVH
2022-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20232310337.2227.6732.4459.40172460002090.07531.635301.6353FF5.22547.2271344.350438821633.23748799169730.194119468660941615453275DRYVH
2022-10-19 16:00:03FORECAST20232310337.2227.6232.429.65846564763270.07531.79530.011.8053FF5.22544.2271344.515730233763.32749334553190.194119468660941615453275DRYVH
2022-10-19 12:00:04FORECAST20232310337.0826.8931.9857.75006273277970.0631.8330.011.843FF5.08544.0871343.284507997422.66047647217140.190324807539171615453275DRYVH
2022-10-19 09:06:04FORECAST20232310335.0128.1931.66.09445762844040.10631.596301.5963FF3.01542.0171342.211535047032.08559370030770.1396164662076116154542100DRYVH
2022-10-19 08:00:03FORECAST20232310335.0628.1931.6255.93351382913240.10631.596301.5963FF3.06542.0671342.106988938012.02989654990660.1407216470720616154542100DRYVH
2022-10-19 04:00:19FORECAST20232310338.9428.1433.545.70210036673240.10631.686301.6863FF6.94542.9471341.956592117731.94987080932110.2443872089104216154542100DRYVH
2022-10-19 00:00:18FORECAST20232310337.3725.5431.4551.50157500513870.11641.646401.6464FF5.37539.3771339.211226739280.509351099534150.1982358092307916154542100DRYVH
2022-10-18 20:00:03FORECAST20232310337.6629.2833.471.60540916956210.14941.949401.9494FF5.66547.6671339.279444003970.544682330447890.2063416731978116154542100DRYVH
2022-10-18 16:00:04FORECAST20232310337.7329.3333.532.05064963572280.14942.19940.012.2094FF5.73546.7371339.571755459470.696342696634710.208327234953416154542100DRYVH
2022-10-18 14:52:29FORECAST20232310337.7329.3333.532.70591105360030.07582.22580.012.2358FF5.73549.7371340.001350090150.920013411447950.208327234953416154542100DRYVH
2022-10-18 14:49:42FORECAST20232310337.7329.3333.5300.07582.22580.012.2358FF5.73549.7371338.2227037099800.208327234953416154552125DRYVH
2022-10-18 12:00:03FORECAST20232310338.6929.6134.1500.08322.28320.012.2932FF6.69548.6971338.2227037099800.2366725141161216154552125DRYVH
2022-10-18 08:00:03FORECAST20232310338.6528.9933.8200.10152.69150.012.7015TF6.65548.6571338.2227037099800.235450695526416154552125DRYVH
2022-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST20232310338.6529.0433.84500.1122.49202.492FF6.65549.6571338.2227037099800.235450695526416154552125DRYVH
2022-10-18 00:00:04FORECAST20232310339.728.934.300.0121.96201.962FF7.7543.771338.2227037099800.2686474747918716254552137.5DRYVH
2022-10-17 20:00:06FORECAST20232310337.3326.4631.89500.09771.69770.011.7077FF5.33563.3371338.2227037099800.1971330098208216154552125DRYVH
2022-10-17 16:00:03FORECAST20232310337.3526.4131.8800.09771.917701.9177FF5.35563.3571338.2227037099800.1976839457449916154552125DRYVH
2022-10-17 12:00:12FORECAST20232310341.3130.0835.69500.00831.558301.5583FF9.31566.3171338.2227037099800.3237286976597316254552137.5DRYVH
2022-10-17 08:00:09FORECAST20232310340.7130.1435.42500.0811.44101.441FF8.71555.7171338.2227037099800.3026554893748316254452110DRYVH
2022-10-17 04:00:27FORECAST20232310340.7130.1435.42500.0811.42101.421FF8.71569.7171338.2227037099800.3026554893748316254452110DRYVH
2022-10-17 00:00:06FORECAST20232310347.9633.2640.6100.0020.83200.832FF15.96569.9671338.2227037099800.580010331532421635435290DRYVH
2022-10-16 20:00:04FORECAST20232310346.9832.739.8400.00261.012601.0126FF14.98582.9871338.2227037099800.541721878199916354452120DRYVH
2022-10-16 16:00:07FORECAST20232310346.9632.739.8300.00231.012301.0123FF14.96583.9671338.2227037099800.5409351845968216354452120DRYVH
2022-10-16 12:00:06FORECAST20232310333.6229.7631.6900.00551.145501.1455FF1.62562.6271338.2227037099800.1112319854404116154452100DRYVH
2022-10-16 08:00:05FORECAST20232310330.3528.9529.6500.04051.160501.1605FF-1.65552.3571338.2227037099800.06118940234181916154452100DRYVH
2022-10-16 04:00:08FORECAST20232310330.3528.9529.6500.03061.150601.1506FF-1.65561.3571338.2227037099800.06118940234181916154452100DRYVH