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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 2, 2022

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DAY 2 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/02/2022 12:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.884
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 493

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 92
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 82

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202328267.0850.8558.96500.00090.00090.40.4009FF35.08493.0892358.1396957432300.884266747651881654315230DRYL
2022-10-01 20:00:01FORECAST202328266.8251.1758.9950000.40.4FF34.82501.8292358.1396957432300.879649437780241654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-01 16:00:02FORECAST20232826754.660.80000.40.4FF3550292358.1396957432300.882859596039281654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-01 12:00:03FORECAST202328267.0754.6460.8550000.40.4FF35.07502.0792358.1396957432300.88409151113731654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-01 08:00:04FORECAST202328267.1654.5160.8350000.40.4FF35.16498.1692358.1396957432300.885661889050971654315230DRYL
2022-10-01 04:00:16FORECAST202328267.3753.2260.2950000.40.4FF35.37503.3792358.1396957432300.889267224225341654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-01 00:00:04FORECAST202328267.5153.3560.430000.40.4FF35.51498.5192358.1396957432300.891625217165881654315230DRYL
2022-09-30 20:00:03FORECAST202328267.5453.1760.3550000.40.4FF35.54505.5492358.1396957432300.892125780689961654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202328266.9453.0860.010000.40.4FF34.94504.9492358.1396957432300.881796332429831654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-30 12:00:04FORECAST202328266.9653.2660.110000.40.4FF34.96505.9692358.1396957432300.882151506930721654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-30 08:00:03FORECAST202328266.652.7459.670000.40.4FF34.6504.692358.1396957432300.875642662635151654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-30 04:00:08FORECAST202328266.752.759.70000.40.4FF34.7503.792358.1396957432300.877475307713691654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202328266.8952.4159.650000.170.17FF34.89502.8992358.1396957432300.880905096858161654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202328268.3352.3860.3550000.180.18FF36.33510.3392358.1396957432300.904715278680051654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 16:00:03FORECAST20232826851.5659.780000.180.18FF3651192358.1396957432300.899594149685681654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 12:00:03FORECAST202328269.4852.1260.80000.180.18FF37.48512.4892358.1396957432300.921064276390451654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 08:00:01FORECAST202328264.1352.3758.250000.180.18FF32.13509.1392358.1396957432300.824259026149271644415230DRYL
2022-09-29 04:00:07FORECAST202328268.9850.4859.730000.20.2FF36.98511.9892358.1396957432300.914237027361341654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202328268.4852.560.490000.10.1FF36.48491.4892358.1396957432300.906978636475741654315160DRYH
2022-09-28 20:00:04FORECAST202328268.6652.4660.560000.30.3FF36.66510.6692358.1396957432300.90964208017471654415165DRYH
2022-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202328268.6152.4660.5350000.280.28FF36.61509.6192358.1396957432300.908907961841661654415165DRYH
2022-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202328268.7752.0960.430000.280.28FF36.77510.7792358.1396957432300.911241711043091654415165DRYH
2022-09-28 08:00:05FORECAST202328265.852.3259.060000.290.29FF33.8501.892358.1396957432300.860292972314751654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-28 04:00:28FORECAST202328267.5752.3459.9550000.220.22FF35.57507.5792358.1396957432300.892624682256411654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-28 00:00:04FORECAST202328269.2550.5159.880000.310.31FF37.25497.2592358.1396957432300.91797650634211654315160DRYH
2022-09-27 20:00:05FORECAST202328269.4352.5260.9750000.190.19FF37.43510.4392358.1396957432300.920400600295141654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 16:00:04FORECAST202328269.452.5260.960000.360.36FF37.4509.492358.1396957432300.92000037997071654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 12:00:03FORECAST202328270.5653.6462.10000.410.41FF38.56512.5692358.1396957432300.934400619562371654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 08:00:03FORECAST202328269.9852.4961.2350000.370.37FF37.98501.9892358.1396957432300.927473003752181654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 04:00:09FORECAST202328269.9852.4961.2350000.380.38FF37.98507.9892358.1396957432300.927473003752181654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 00:00:04FORECAST202328270.1452.8261.480000.350.35FF38.14494.1492358.1396957432300.929437583725071654315160DRYH
2022-09-26 20:00:04FORECAST202328269.9952.6961.340000.290.29FF37.99507.9992358.1396957432300.927597000598961654415165DRYH
2022-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST202328269.9552.761.3250000.530.53FF37.95508.9592358.1396957432300.927100040503221654415165DRYH
2022-09-26 12:00:10FORECAST202328264.5747.5656.0650000.560.56FF32.57499.5792358.1396957432300.834278720533741644415230DRYL
2022-09-26 08:00:03FORECAST202328264.6747.856.2350000.640.64FF32.67494.6792358.1396957432300.836503504358151644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-26 04:00:11FORECAST202328263.4946.5555.020000.610.61FF31.49490.4992358.1396957432300.809016951624811644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-26 00:00:08FORECAST202328263.9851.9857.9800.0030.0030.680.683FF31.98481.9892358.1396957432300.820757494826631644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-25 20:00:06FORECAST202328263.8551.9257.88500.00280.00280.580.5828FF31.85492.8592358.1396957432300.817687683085031644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-25 16:00:04FORECAST202328261.0349.8455.43500.10380.10380.480.5838FF29.03486.0392358.1396957432300.743298591231171644325255DRYH
2022-09-25 12:00:04FORECAST202328254.3147.3950.8500.00720.00720.470.4772FF22.31478.3192358.1396957432300.52023019027221634315225DRYL
2022-09-25 08:00:06FORECAST202328250.4247.5348.97500.00130.00130.350.3513FF18.42473.4292358.1396957432300.382771860681461624315222.5DRYL
2022-09-25 04:00:15FORECAST202328250.4249.8250.120000.350.35FF18.42471.4292358.1396957432300.382771860681461624315222.5DRYL