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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 3, 2022

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DAY 3 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/04/2022 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.73°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.953
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 528

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 91
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 83

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-04 04:00:10OBSERVATION202338368.7099254.7300461.719980000.40.4FF36.70992527.7099291357.22687332289 00.9533894667874916 54415165DRYH
2022-10-04 00:00:01FORECAST202338354.9554.9554.950000.40.4FF22.95513.9590356.3105755784100.663146489274411634415227.5DRYL
2022-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST202338369.256.5762.88500.00120.00120.40.4012FF37.2528.290356.3105755784100.957605643250171654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 08:00:01FORECAST202338369.0755.3162.190000.40.4FF37.07528.0790356.3105755784100.956518407776251654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 04:00:09FORECAST202338368.7854.7761.77500.00340.00340.40.4034FF36.78527.7890356.3105755784100.954012151799961654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 00:00:04FORECAST202338368.7853.1460.960000.40.4FF36.78512.7891357.2268733228900.954012151799961654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST202338368.352.7360.5150000.40.4FF36.3526.391357.2268733228900.949610964912271654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 16:00:02FORECAST202338368.1255.7461.930000.40.4FF36.12526.1291357.2268733228900.947876712045741654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST202338368.1955.7661.9750000.40.4FF36.19526.1991357.2268733228900.948556676534061654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 08:00:04FORECAST202338368.2356.0462.1350000.40.4FF36.23526.2391357.2268733228900.948942059250891654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 04:00:18FORECAST202338368.256.1562.1750000.40.4FF36.2523.291357.2268733228900.948653237711711654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202338368.1356.0162.070000.40.4FF36.13515.1391357.2268733228900.947974283211571654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 20:00:02FORECAST202338367.9155.6661.7850000.40.4FF35.91523.9191357.2268733228900.945794062380241654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-01 16:00:04FORECAST202338368.3156.0562.180000.40.4FF36.31524.3191357.2268733228900.94970595209661654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 12:00:03FORECAST202338368.2656.1362.1950000.40.4FF36.26524.2691357.2268733228900.949229590585861654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 08:00:05FORECAST202338368.285662.140000.40.4FF36.28520.2891357.2268733228900.949420563132811654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 04:00:17FORECAST202338368.3154.9361.620000.40.4FF36.31525.3191357.2268733228900.94970595209661654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 00:00:05FORECAST202338368.554.8661.680000.40.4FF36.5521.591357.2268733228900.951483824829651654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 20:00:03FORECAST202338370.654.9862.790000.40.4FF38.6530.691357.2268733228900.967979551432181654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202338369.1355.0462.0850000.40.4FF37.13528.1391357.2268733228900.957022964839191654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 12:00:05FORECAST202338370.4455.4862.960000.40.4FF38.44530.4491357.2268733228900.966911495404131654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 08:00:03FORECAST202338366.1954.4460.3150000.40.4FF34.19525.1991357.2268733228900.926179545873491654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-30 04:00:08FORECAST202338370.6153.1561.880000.40.4FF38.61528.6191357.2268733228900.968045351340071654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202338370.1154.4862.2950000.170.17FF38.11527.1191357.2268733228900.964616129438991654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202338370.4954.5262.5050000.180.18FF38.49534.4991357.2268733228900.967248362703451654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 16:00:04FORECAST202338370.4654.5962.5250000.180.18FF38.46535.4691357.2268733228900.967046582347131654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 12:00:04FORECAST202338371.1254.9163.0150000.180.18FF39.12537.1291357.2268733228900.971256366618151654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202338368.3154.9861.6450000.180.18FF36.31531.3191357.2268733228900.94970595209661654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 04:00:08FORECAST202338368.3154.9861.6450000.20.2FF36.31534.3191357.2268733228900.94970595209661654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202338369.3553.1161.230000.10.1FF37.35514.3591357.2268733228900.958832792905111654415165DRYH
2022-09-28 20:00:04FORECAST202338369.3854.2761.8250000.30.3FF37.38534.3891357.2268733228900.959074743726491654415165DRYH
2022-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202338369.3854.2761.8250000.280.28FF37.38533.3891357.2268733228900.959074743726491654415165DRYH
2022-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202338369.5554.7162.130000.280.28FF37.55534.5591357.2268733228900.960424160802011654415165DRYH
2022-09-28 08:00:06FORECAST202338369.5454.7262.130000.290.29FF37.54525.5491357.2268733228900.960345794721711654415165DRYH
2022-09-28 04:00:29FORECAST202338369.6453.961.770000.220.22FF37.64531.6491357.2268733228900.961123819102671654415165DRYH
2022-09-28 00:00:04FORECAST202338371.9756.2364.10000.310.31FF39.97522.9791357.2268733228900.97601146672961654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 20:00:06FORECAST202338371.9656.2364.0950000.190.19FF39.96535.9691357.2268733228900.975959615817941654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 16:00:05FORECAST202338371.6156.564.0550000.360.36FF39.61534.6191357.2268733228900.97408477411971654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 12:00:03FORECAST202338371.7856.3464.060000.410.41FF39.78538.7891357.2268733228900.975010120004561654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 08:00:03FORECAST202338371.4355.3763.40000.370.37FF39.43527.4391357.2268733228900.973074005414821654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 04:00:09FORECAST202338371.4255.3763.3950000.380.38FF39.42533.4291357.2268733228900.973016902348771654415165DRYH
2022-09-27 00:00:04FORECAST202338372.4355.2563.840000.350.35FF40.43520.4391357.2268733228900.978297257806861654415165DRYH
2022-09-26 20:00:05FORECAST202338371.6654.8563.2550000.290.29FF39.66533.6691357.2268733228900.974359856779441654415165DRYH
2022-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST202338371.6654.8563.2550000.530.53FF39.66534.6691357.2268733228900.974359856779441654415165DRYH
2022-09-26 12:00:12FORECAST202338360.2752.2556.260000.560.56FF28.27514.2791357.2268733228900.817739548255791644415230DRYL
2022-09-26 08:00:03FORECAST202338354.5552.3453.4450000.640.64FF22.55503.5591357.2268733228900.649715409922661634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-26 04:00:11FORECAST202338353.3352.3552.840000.610.61FF21.33497.3391357.2268733228900.607645375386521634315225DRYL