Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 26, 2022

[ Monday, July 25, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 27, 2022 ]

DAY 299 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/27/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 82.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 65.98°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 74.04°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.968 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 50 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 609 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 206 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.57 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 14 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 2 D2: 5 D3: 1 D4: 3 D5: 1 HSdry: 36.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-27 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2022	299	14	82.09994	65.98004	74.03999	10.622741818182	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	50.09994	609.09994	206	446.57074982376	4.7438057789297	0.96816963009073	16	5	2	5	1	3	1	36	DRY	L
2022-07-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	299	14	65.96	65.96	65.96	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	33.96	592.96	207	443.02169306381	0	0.51692117561686	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2022-07-26 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	299	14	79.17	65.84	72.505	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	47.17	606.17	207	443.02169306381	0	0.93634145560858	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-26 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	299	14	74.39	66.26	70.325	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.03	0.0314	F	F	42.39	601.39	207	443.02169306381	0	0.8383917719793	16	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-26 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	299	14	77.8	64.95	71.375	0	0.0012	0.0012	0.03	0.0312	F	F	45.8	604.8	207	443.02169306381	0	0.91477543935361	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	299	14	80.1	65.04	72.57	0	0.0025	0.0025	0.03	0.0325	F	F	48.1	595.1	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94838376784409	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	299	14	79.83	63.71	71.77	0	0.0026	0.0026	0.03	0.0326	F	F	47.83	603.83	206	442.43203585831	0	0.9450900428717	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	299	14	79.97	64.99	72.48	0	0.0051	0.0051	0.03	0.0351	F	F	47.97	603.97	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94681798892808	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	80.16	65.46	72.81	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	48.16	604.16	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94909400544247	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	79.91	65.75	72.83	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	47.91	603.91	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94608277581225	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	299	14	79.84	65.46	72.65	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	47.84	603.84	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94521491622702	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	80.42	65.49	72.955	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	48.42	594.42	206	442.43203585831	0	0.95208252357811	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	299	14	80.37	65.28	72.825	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	48.37	605.37	206	442.43203585831	0	0.95151894626569	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	299	14	79.54	65.22	72.38	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.03	0.0302	F	F	47.54	604.54	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94137025953846	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	79.63	65.34	72.485	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.03	0.0302	F	F	47.63	604.63	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94254519697982	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	79.95	65.06	72.505	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.03	0.0302	F	F	47.95	602.95	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94657380319179	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	299	14	80.18	65.21	72.695	0	0.0077	0.0077	0.03	0.0377	F	F	48.18	602.18	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94932902055841	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	80.21	65.07	72.64	0	0.0033	0.0033	0.03	0.0333	F	F	48.21	598.21	206	442.43203585831	0	0.94967992742447	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	81.99	64.39	73.19	0	0.0036	0.0036	0.03	0.0336	F	F	49.99	603.99	206	442.43203585831	0	0.96727437993143	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	81.5	64.32	72.91	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	49.5	607.5	206	442.43203585831	0	0.96302915806071	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	82.92	63.97	73.445	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.03	0.0302	F	F	50.92	608.92	206	442.43203585831	0	0.97422992152002	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	79.09	65.16	72.125	0	0.0003	0.0003	0.04	0.0403	F	F	47.09	602.09	206	442.43203585831	0	0.93521139828165	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-23 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	299	14	84.39	65.34	74.865	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	52.39	612.39	206	442.43203585831	0	0.98268685482629	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-23 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	81.92	63.22	72.57	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	49.92	597.92	206	442.43203585831	0	0.96669365186597	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	81.23	61.32	71.275	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	49.23	609.23	206	442.43203585831	0	0.96050448038562	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	81.23	61.65	71.44	0	0	0.01	0.03	0.04	F	F	49.23	608.23	206	442.43203585831	0	0.96050448038562	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	78.75	60.98	69.865	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	46.75	605.75	206	442.43203585831	0	0.93023475089983	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	74.87	60.99	67.93	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.87	591.87	206	442.43203585831	0	0.85123309587487	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-22 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	299	14	74.86	60.99	67.925	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.86	600.86	206	442.43203585831	0	0.8509727056677	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	80.55	61.17	70.86	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	48.55	593.55	206	442.43203585831	0	0.95352338049694	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-21 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	80.56	59.94	70.25	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	48.56	607.56	206	442.43203585831	0	0.95363276419861	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-21 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	80.77	60.3	70.535	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	48.77	605.77	206	442.43203585831	0	0.95588259566044	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	81.68	63.62	72.65	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	49.68	611.68	206	442.43203585831	0	0.96463802026558	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	82.08	64.44	73.26	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	50.08	605.08	206	442.43203585831	0	0.96800877155807	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-21 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	299	14	81.11	63.98	72.545	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	49.11	608.11	206	442.43203585831	0	0.95933838627101	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	82.38	64.21	73.295	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	50.38	594.38	206	442.43203585831	0	0.97035934830512	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-20 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	82.36	64.19	73.275	0	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	50.36	607.36	206	442.43203585831	0	0.9702072202164	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-20 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	83.84	65.73	74.785	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	51.84	610.84	206	442.43203585831	0	0.97985059806516	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2022	299	14	84.05	65.83	74.94	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	52.05	608.05	206	442.43203585831	0	0.98097681312585	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-20 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	84.04	65.86	74.95	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	52.04	609.04	206	442.43203585831	0	0.98092442150303	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-20 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	299	14	86.2	66.21	76.205	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	54.2	611.2	206	442.43203585831	0	0.98974642358756	16	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-07-20 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	299	14	78.4	59.76	69.08	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	46.4	583.4	206	442.43203585831	0	0.92481068645495	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-19 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	78.35	59.76	69.055	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	46.35	595.35	206	442.43203585831	0	0.92401034933019	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-19 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	78.64	60.45	69.545	0	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	46.64	593.64	206	442.43203585831	0	0.92856339117687	16	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2022-07-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	299	14	67.4	56.95	62.175	0	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	35.4	580.4	206	442.43203585831	0	0.58078447836324	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2022-07-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	299	14	62.49	60.16	61.325	0	0	0.02	0.07	0.09	F	F	30.49	574.49	206	442.43203585831	0	0.36441665415137	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-19 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	299	14	61.85	60.54	61.195	0	0	0.02	0.07	0.09	F	F	29.85	576.85	206	442.43203585831	0	0.33781086386287	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L