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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 27, 2022

[ Tuesday, July 26, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 28, 2022 ]

DAY 300 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/28/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 80.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 63.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 71.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.931
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 48
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 631

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 207
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 15

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-28 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223001580.0000663.4200871.710070000.030.03FF48.00006631.00006207443.02169306381 00.9309207528469116 52515160DRYH
2022-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20223001567.0567.0567.050000.030.03FF35.05618.05208443.6091138238600.545872755500941632515225DRYL
2022-07-27 12:00:01FORECAST20223001578.1766.7972.488.13021866666670.00120.00120.030.0312FF46.17629.17208446.762663515663.63227814648470.901327049947261652513136DRYL
2022-07-27 08:00:02FORECAST20223001575.3965.470.3957.382980.00090.00090.030.0309FF43.39626.39208446.475534537463.29631994197940.840240666082211642513133DRYL
2022-07-27 04:00:07FORECAST20223001575.1764.169.6356.5346044848485000.030.03FF43.17626.17208446.148882101882.91540648589310.834528524541471642513133DRYL
2022-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20223001574.164.7869.4400.00730.00730.030.0373FF42.1609.1207443.0216930638100.804897567826411642515155DRYH
2022-07-26 20:00:01FORECAST20223001577.4763.5670.51500.00740.00740.030.0374FF45.47625.47207443.0216930638100.887848830367271652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 16:00:01FORECAST20223001577.2164.0370.6200.01160.01160.030.0416FF45.21625.21207443.0216930638100.882522861934091652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 12:00:02FORECAST20223001577.464.2770.83500.00520.00520.030.0352FF45.4625.4207443.0216930638100.886432141321321652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 08:00:02FORECAST20223001577.4664.7171.08500.00520.00520.030.0352FF45.46620.46207443.0216930638100.887647220770071652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 04:00:06FORECAST20223001577.5465.0671.300.01220.01220.030.0422FF45.54624.54207443.0216930638100.889252882141071652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST20223001578.6665.5972.12500.01530.01530.030.0453FF46.66615.66207443.0216930638100.910031962888881652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 20:00:03FORECAST20223001578.665.7272.1600.01540.01540.030.0454FF46.6624.6207443.0216930638100.908997690176411652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 16:00:03FORECAST20223001579.1265.7372.42500.01990.02990.030.0599FF47.12625.12207443.0216930638100.917673760407481652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 12:00:03FORECAST20223001578.9165.7872.34500.03650.03650.030.0665FF46.91624.91207443.0216930638100.914247820138791652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 08:00:04FORECAST20223001578.7965.5472.16500.03680.03680.030.0668FF46.79624.79207443.0216930638100.912242976274511652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 04:00:08FORECAST20223001579.0765.6572.3600.0170.0170.030.047FF47.07625.07207443.0216930638100.916867528539011652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 00:00:03FORECAST20223001579.165.1572.12500.02220.02220.030.0522FF47.1615.1207443.0216930638100.917351974686931652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 20:00:03FORECAST20223001581.4265.6173.51500.02280.02280.030.0528FF49.42628.42207443.0216930638100.948762831231061652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 16:00:03FORECAST20223001581.3565.3573.3500.01640.01640.030.0464FF49.35628.35207443.0216930638100.947978649899861652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 12:00:04FORECAST20223001581.7566.0373.8900.01040.01040.030.0404FF49.75628.75207443.0216930638100.952334206771461652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 08:00:04FORECAST20223001581.2966.0873.68500.01370.01370.030.0437FF49.29626.29207443.0216930638100.947298957114711652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 04:00:07FORECAST20223001586.0366.2276.125000.010.030.04FF54.03630.03207443.0216930638100.983070035011021652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 00:00:04FORECAST20223001586.0565.2975.670000.030.03FF54.05626.05207443.0216930638100.983159022144931652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 20:00:04FORECAST2022300158664.2675.130000.030.03FF54632207443.0216930638100.982935802082061652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 16:00:03FORECAST20223001585.7165.6975.70000.030.03FF53.71635.71207443.0216930638100.981590755533721652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 12:00:04FORECAST20223001583.1965.6474.4150000.030.03FF51.19634.19207443.0216930638100.965657578875821652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 08:00:03FORECAST20223001579.5266.1272.820000.040.04FF47.52623.52207443.0216930638100.923913608561431652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 04:00:09FORECAST20223001579.5366.1272.8250000.030.03FF47.53633.53207443.0216930638100.924064874599441652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 00:00:04FORECAST20223001579.8764.0871.9750000.030.03FF47.87619.87207443.0216930638100.929073228149371652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 20:00:04FORECAST20223001579.9361.7370.830000.030.03FF47.93630.93207443.0216930638100.929930184857231652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 16:00:03FORECAST2022300158061.7370.865000.010.030.04FF48630207443.0216930638100.930919909141371652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 12:00:04FORECAST20223001581.5563.2772.410000.030.03FF49.55629.55207443.0216930638100.950194274177161652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 08:00:05FORECAST20223001581.3563.1472.2450000.030.03FF49.35615.35207443.0216930638100.947978649899861652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 04:00:10FORECAST20223001581.3563.1472.2450000.030.03FF49.35624.35207443.0216930638100.947978649899861652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 00:00:04FORECAST20223001582.9464.2173.5750000.030.03FF50.94618.94207443.0216930638100.963592683951341652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 20:00:04FORECAST20223001582.9564.2173.580000.030.03FF50.95632.95207443.0216930638100.96367718200261652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 16:00:04FORECAST20223001583.764.4774.0850000.030.03FF51.7631.7207443.0216930638100.969572767934461652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 12:00:05FORECAST20223001584.2664.7974.5250000.030.03FF52.26638.26207443.0216930638100.973439350554651652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 08:00:04FORECAST2022300158464.0974.0450000.030.03FF52631207443.0216930638100.97169830862951652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 04:00:09FORECAST20223001582.9663.2373.0950000.040.04FF50.96632.96207443.0216930638100.963761519941041652515160DRYH
2022-07-21 00:00:05FORECAST20223001583.5664.7874.170000.040.04FF51.56619.56207443.0216930638100.968536625960011652515160DRYH
2022-07-20 20:00:04FORECAST20223001583.5564.7774.160000.050.05FF51.55632.55207443.0216930638100.968461516055021652515160DRYH
2022-07-20 16:00:04FORECAST20223001583.9165.2374.570000.040.04FF51.91636.91207443.0216930638100.971073991144571652515160DRYH
2022-07-20 12:00:07FORECAST20223001581.1168.2274.6650000.040.04FF49.11631.11207443.0216930638100.945217678343661652515160DRYH
2022-07-20 08:00:05FORECAST20223001570.5568.1469.3450000.040.04FF38.55621.55207443.0216930638100.686009461161121632515150DRYMH
2022-07-20 04:00:09FORECAST20223001570.7469.8470.290000.040.04FF38.74623.74207443.0216930638100.693087335700811632515150DRYMH