MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 30, 2022

[ Wednesday, June 29, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, July 1, 2022 ]

DAY 273 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/28/2022 08:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.691
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 385

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 81 in
SWE DAY: 180
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -12

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-28 08:00:03FORECAST2022273-1261.8947.6854.78580.5412973333330.01530.17532.22.3753FF29.89384.89180458.0368007343336.8908781575530.69110446747792163122126DRYL
2022-06-28 04:00:06FORECAST2022273-1259.5546.8353.1980.0180121666670.01540.09542.22.2954FF27.55381.55180457.8507787593536.6363091852830.60991917012338163122126DRYL
2022-06-28 00:00:04FORECAST2022273-1259.374753.18580.7351280.01570.09572.22.2957FF27.37363.37180458.1056426204636.9852176944850.60341453594083163122126DRYL
2022-06-27 20:00:03FORECAST2022273-1261.6747.254.43583.7068653333330.01990.08992.222.3099FF29.67382.67180459.1568677552438.4345820960630.68378550893822163121123DRYL
2022-06-27 16:00:03FORECAST2022273-1262.1847.3154.74583.7198760.02570.15572.222.3757FF30.18385.18180459.1614527367238.4409398870980.70063715756079164122127DRYL
2022-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2022273-1267.5247.3257.4281.0874573333330.0230.1432.222.363FF35.52391.52180458.2306909361737.1567616001110.84806370763493164122127DRYL
2022-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2022273-1261.6647.8354.74580.3017333333330.02010.14012.222.3601FF29.66384.66180457.9516691198136.7743128132140.68345108414167163122126DRYL
2022-06-27 04:00:06FORECAST2022273-1262.4547.0854.76580.0001890.02680.13682.242.3768FF30.45386.45180457.8444384694836.6276416101570.70939064071202164122127DRYL
2022-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2022273-1263.3646.8555.10581.7588213333330.0250.1452.262.405FF31.36368.36180458.4686611003337.4838573498340.73797659717086164122127DRYL
2022-06-26 20:00:03FORECAST2022273-1264.5245.6355.07584.7205546666670.02010.09012.232.3201FF32.52384.52180459.513640035138.9302504606720.77220755374226164122127DRYL
2022-06-26 16:00:03FORECAST2022273-1264.4948.1656.32584.5127666666670.02020.10022.232.3302FF32.49387.49180459.440582994338.8285947877950.77135512276991164122127DRYL
2022-06-26 12:00:04FORECAST2022273-1263.3949.5956.4981.5920906666670.02070.11072.232.3407FF31.39388.39180458.4095999957237.4025976453210.73889389084634164122127DRYL
2022-06-26 08:00:03FORECAST2022273-1261.750.0655.8881.1590760.01790.07792.232.3079FF29.7386.7180458.2560960667737.1916413281460.68478788151245163121123DRYL
2022-06-26 04:00:07FORECAST2022273-1260.8450.0655.4580.9607894166670.01760.08762.222.3076FF28.84386.84180458.1857469906937.0950797758310.65553964427524163121123DRYL
2022-06-26 00:00:04FORECAST2022273-1264.4149.2356.8281.6663480.05430.07432.212.2843FF32.41375.41180458.4359073049137.4387863416580.76907325352758164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-25 20:00:04FORECAST2022273-1266.9548.0257.48583.5396306666670.00250.03252.212.2425FF34.95390.95180459.0979204762838.3528707164230.8351121476351164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2022273-1266.8648.0257.4483.5491426666670.00250.03252.232.2625FF34.86389.86180459.1012739606438.3575178365860.83300380776534164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-25 12:00:04FORECAST2022273-1261.348.8555.07581.5385573333330.01340.04342.212.2534FF29.3389.3180458.3906315454937.3765107913350.6713137355302163121123DRYL
2022-06-25 08:00:03FORECAST2022273-1264.474956.73580.9334520.00150.03152.212.2415FF32.47385.47180458.1760453099237.081768970640.77078584342006164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-25 04:00:07FORECAST2022273-1264.548.9956.74580.6418470833330.00150.02152.212.2315FF32.5393.5180458.0725167259636.9398138468930.77163946494617164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-25 00:00:04FORECAST2022273-1260.8649.2555.05581.8555346666670.06060.07062.212.2806FF28.86380.86180458.5029084623637.5310007184080.65623137511181163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 20:00:04FORECAST2022273-1261.0649.7655.4184.067860.06220.07222.222.2922FF29.06390.06180459.284026696838.6110252565830.66311962004578163121123DRYL
2022-06-24 16:00:03FORECAST2022273-1261.0749.7555.4183.8040386666670.06220.09222.252.3422FF29.07393.07180459.1911081463538.4820693824860.66346262487111163122126DRYL
2022-06-24 12:00:03FORECAST2022273-1263.7450.7957.26581.6743893333330.0010.0412.232.271FF31.74395.74180458.4387558280537.4427054289890.74947254460755164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-24 08:00:04FORECAST2022273-1263.3751.5157.4481.3919813333330.00580.02582.212.2358FF31.37392.37180458.3386821136437.3050934589380.73828254493155164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-24 04:00:06FORECAST2022273-1263.6951.5257.60580.6942567536230.00580.02582.212.2358FF31.69398.69180458.091129400336.9653232123850.74797531807325164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-24 00:00:03FORECAST2022273-1265.0452.4958.76583.0095160.01160.05162.222.2716FF33.04389.04180458.91089880738.0939715970940.78669642045282164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-23 20:00:04FORECAST2022273-1263.0451.2957.16585.2755960.01860.05862.222.2786FF31.04398.04180459.7086003551539.2019248816120.72809054184521164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-23 16:00:04FORECAST2022273-1263.0651.2757.16585.7856360.00460.04462.222.2646FF31.06395.06180459.8875116195639.4517426727420.72871380775583164121123.5DRYL
2022-06-23 12:00:03FORECAST2022273-1258.0249.5553.78585.14680133333300.12.212.31FF26.02394.02180459.6633852390139.1388669431540.5538312862402163122126DRYL
2022-06-23 08:00:04FORECAST2022273-1251.4348.8450.13585.20485733333300.042.22.24FF19.43385.43180459.6837684169639.1672899064160.31424141717881162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-23 04:00:08FORECAST2022273-1250.4749.0449.75584.9978577500.042.22.24FF18.47386.47180459.6110781251639.0659570388070.28295928539221162121122.5DRYL