Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 2, 2022

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DAY 184 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/03/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.81°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.38°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.10°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.219 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 8 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.20 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.62 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.32 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.94 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 134 in SWE DAY: 91 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.67 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 57.18 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -101 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-03 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	184	-101	30.81002	23.37998	27.095	134.02368208333	0.20000000000005	0.62000000000005	2.32	2.94	F	F	-1.18998	7.81002	91	426.66796962471	57.183612316123	0.21863478264689	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2022-04-03 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-100	26.44	26.44	26.44	134	0	0.42	2.32	2.74	F	F	-5.56	3.44	92	427.30715533332	57.259158814665	0.099097080664102	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-04-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-100	31.53	26.52	29.025	134.04987178514	0.0148	0.4348	2.32	2.7548	F	F	-0.47	8.53	92	427.32876369971	57.28336598405	0.24419919470244	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-04-02 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	184	-100	31.4	22.15	26.775	134.17055772889	0.0384	0.4584	2.32	2.7784	F	F	-0.6	8.4	92	427.38104298499	57.341952900049	0.23946748802182	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-04-02 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	184	-100	32.76	22.02	27.39	134.43166942528	0.0804	0.5004	2.32	2.8204	F	F	0.76	9.76	92	427.49409770566	57.468745224026	0.29134842068188	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-04-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	32.66	20.96	26.81	133.98996769291	0.2284	0.5384	2.32	2.8584	F	F	0.66	3.66	91	426.65330561869	57.167262635923	0.28736181199553	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-04-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	31.33	22.51	26.92	133.98068136415	0.235	0.605	2.32	2.925	F	F	-0.67	10.33	91	426.64926632817	57.162759406163	0.236940499751	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2022-04-01 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	31.15	23.63	27.39	133.90083572609	0.2101	0.5801	2.32	2.9001	F	F	-0.85	10.15	91	426.61453180086	57.124042341028	0.23051024338201	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2022-04-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	33.93	21.89	27.91	133.95997090074	0.206	0.576	2.32	2.896	F	F	1.93	12.93	91	426.6402575188	57.152716482302	0.33978576042738	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-04-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	33.28	23.14	28.21	133.8546167438	0.1721	0.5321	2.32	2.8521	F	F	1.28	12.28	91	426.59442235485	57.101632909352	0.31248252344013	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-04-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	32.47	22.68	27.575	134.23491540335	0.1983	0.5583	2.32	2.8783	F	F	0.47	9.47	91	426.75981655515	57.286067872832	0.27985909368355	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-04-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	33.75	22.52	28.135	131.89999310043	0.2006	0.2506	2.32	2.5706	F	F	1.75	8.75	91	425.74181928006	56.155343025603	0.33213247141264	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-31 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	34.1	22.43	28.265	132.11904807892	0.243	0.313	2.32	2.633	F	F	2.1	14.1	91	425.83758138729	56.26125588912	0.34707504898488	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-31 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	33.8	23.11	28.455	132.02036968478	0.1883	0.3083	2.32	2.6283	F	F	1.8	14.8	91	425.79444972056	56.213540661837	0.33425154598971	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-31 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	34.04	23.27	28.655	132.06731841837	0.1858	0.3058	2.32	2.6258	F	F	2.04	15.04	91	425.81497204647	56.23624150057	0.344495726216	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	34.57	22.95	28.76	132.2537365883	0.1981	0.3481	2.32	2.6681	F	F	2.57	12.57	91	425.89643538941	56.326394979889	0.36751683880952	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-31 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	33.58	23.91	28.745	132.31043563596	0.147	0.237	2.32	2.557	F	F	1.58	16.58	91	425.92120479908	56.353820153557	0.32496798794529	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	33.91	23.69	28.8	135.18208551214	0.164	0.274	2.07	2.344	F	F	1.91	9.91	91	427.17105279832	57.745873787695	0.33893205587447	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	35.75	23.48	29.615	134.33929186875	0.1955	0.3055	2.19	2.4955	F	F	3.75	18.75	91	426.80518258014	57.336705993729	0.42039784429455	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	36.84	25.7	31.27	134.02641124338	0.1593	0.2393	2.19	2.4293	F	F	4.84	19.84	91	426.66915661242	57.184935849004	0.47058199861614	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	31.96	23.07	27.515	134.72694269863	0.1455	0.2455	2.19	2.4355	F	F	-0.039999999999999	14.96	91	426.97356529076	57.524843064756	0.26020232958119	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	37.8	26.81	32.305	135.31052704683	0.2047	0.3747	2.27	2.6447	F	F	5.8	24.8	91	427.22674258117	57.808275707159	0.51519875460134	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-03-30 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	37.39	25.53	31.46	134.56344201903	0.0744	0.2244	2.31	2.5344	F	F	5.39	24.39	91	426.90256621499	57.445478716644	0.49613444180541	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	38.12	25.3	31.71	135.74500337604	0.0463	0.2063	2.32	2.5263	F	F	6.12	12.12	91	427.41498855633	58.019449064552	0.53005632468327	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-03-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	38.95	25.58	32.265	136.50732906202	0.0424	0.1824	2.32	2.5024	F	F	6.95	28.95	91	427.74478052638	58.390297509875	0.56834816944969	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-03-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	38.95	25.13	32.04	136.48619648714	0.0283	0.1683	2.33	2.4983	F	F	6.95	28.95	91	427.73564690374	58.380011547858	0.56834816944969	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-03-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	38.4	25.17	31.785	136.04840365148	0.0199	0.1499	2.34	2.4899	F	F	6.4	24.4	91	427.54631995199	58.166994316534	0.54302316495314	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-03-29 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	32.28	25.47	28.875	136.18866457156	0.0385	0.1885	2.29	2.4785	F	F	0.28	19.28	91	427.60699981067	58.235226265667	0.27245257473427	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	37.7	26.72	32.21	135.25657501735	0.0346	0.1246	2.27	2.3946	F	F	5.7	30.7	91	427.20335223024	57.782062258595	0.51055045865205	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-03-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	39.94	27.95	33.945	137.82443468	0.1524	0.2324	2.25	2.4824	F	F	7.94	25.94	91	428.31307488123	59.032007411556	0.61316653413832	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-03-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	40.1	25.65	32.875	138.00426436696	0.1729	0.2329	2.31	2.5429	F	F	8.1	38.1	91	428.3905189726	59.119718432596	0.6202868199886	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-03-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	43.56	27.59	35.575	137.50621579477	0.0835	0.1635	2.32	2.4835	F	F	11.56	40.56	91	428.17594643374	58.876854088449	0.76103052737444	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-03-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	44.78	30.5	37.64	136.52467943466	0.0993	0.1893	2.31	2.4993	F	F	12.78	39.78	91	427.75227909257	58.398742780559	0.80286230755414	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-03-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	43.12	30.44	36.78	136.67406524704	0.0996	0.1796	2.32	2.4996	F	F	11.12	29.12	91	427.81682769063	58.47146502157	0.74483306396672	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-03-28 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	43.19	30.37	36.78	136.37356423473	0.1017	0.1917	2.31	2.5017	F	F	11.19	40.19	91	427.68695831381	58.325194881963	0.74744771672564	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-03-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	48.49	31.7	40.095	137.01603983925	0.0141	0.0941	2.35	2.4441	F	F	16.49	31.49	91	427.96450041961	58.63800103928	0.90057195354285	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-03-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	48.59	31.74	40.165	138.44855488092	0.0141	0.1141	2.51	2.6241	F	F	16.59	46.59	91	428.58170217169	59.336517314075	0.90259759872282	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-03-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	49.5	31.38	40.44	138.7069746521	0.0035	0.1035	2.56	2.6635	F	F	17.5	42.5	91	428.69280390216	59.462681884396	0.9196609489275	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-03-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	42.7	31.64	37.17	138.29849748516	0.0433	0.1933	2.58	2.7733	F	F	10.7	41.7	91	428.51715491593	59.263278671487	0.72885333458177	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-03-27 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	44.36	31.5	37.93	138.00502323109	0.0261	0.1361	2.58	2.7161	F	F	12.36	30.36	91	428.39084570433	59.120088613411	0.78898621417216	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-03-27 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	44.63	31.61	38.12	138.64137764329	0.0261	0.1261	2.71	2.8361	F	F	12.63	33.63	91	428.66460885908	59.430651919144	0.79797103561744	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-03-27 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	45.45	33.07	39.26	138.69691882497	0.0177	0.0877	2.65	2.7377	F	F	13.45	29.45	91	428.68848199045	59.457771587828	0.82382355664772	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-03-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	44.67	32.86	38.765	140.09587415524	0.0248	0.0948	2.77	2.8648	F	F	12.67	33.67	91	429.28868216119	60.141573192321	0.79928241079963	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-03-26 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	43.39	32.87	38.13	139.61938498048	0.0192	0.0892	2.54	2.6292	F	F	11.39	32.39	91	429.08449129385	59.908512779109	0.75483978653916	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-03-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	42.99	33.98	38.485	139.04562712794	0	0.07	2.51	2.58	F	F	10.99	34.99	91	428.83828950864	59.6280889012	0.73994003740839	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-03-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	35.78	33.18	34.48	140.3089932158	0	0.14	2.64	2.78	F	F	3.78	20.78	91	429.37993054713	60.245865762136	0.4217656799503	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-03-26 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	184	-101	36.1	34.2	35.15	139.86935267314	0	0.14	2.69	2.83	F	F	4.1	32.1	91	429.19164126946	60.030757037083	0.43641144814215	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L