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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 3, 2022

[ Saturday, April 2, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, April 4, 2022 ]

DAY 185 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/04/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.94°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.148
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 5

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.51 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.83 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.27 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 134 in
SWE DAY: 92
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 427.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -100

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-04 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022185-10029.9400825.8499427.89501134.120466666670.509999999999990.829999999999992.443.27FF-2.059924.9400892427.35934625652 57.3176349542870.1484766309518216 1113124.5DRYL
2022-04-04 00:00:02FORECAST2022185-9928.9228.9228.92136.338697343150.08520.40522.442.8452FF-3.083.9293428.9607131850958.4839448470430.12240352404696161112123DRYL
2022-04-03 12:00:01FORECAST2022185-9930.7626.2428.5135.941414304150.58640.90642.443.3464TF-1.245.7693428.7901506906458.2903395245750.17194349845766161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-03 08:00:01FORECAST2022185-9931.3125.3928.35135.821210071950.54680.86682.443.3068TF-0.696.3193428.738510399958.2317832869590.18893994604768161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-03 04:00:05FORECAST2022185-9930.0424.427.22135.688586827030.47690.79692.443.2369FF-1.965.0493428.6815165468858.1671891791150.1512162974674161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-03 00:00:02FORECAST2022185-10031.0224.6227.82135.879913315030.55630.67632.443.1163FF-0.981.0292428.1197910205358.1728800923160.17985319031485161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-02 20:00:01FORECAST2022185-10031.142528.07136.141197885140.61860.74862.443.1886FF-0.867.1492428.2324304493458.3000760546380.18357950351207161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-02 16:00:01FORECAST2022185-10031.5226.0428.78136.403246473690.66330.79332.443.2333FF-0.487.5292428.3453241876458.4276928310180.19569297900977161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-02 12:00:02FORECAST2022185-10031.1826.2728.725136.356834818930.6520.7822.443.222FF-0.827.1892428.3253349542358.4050869471180.18483219940499161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-02 08:00:02FORECAST2022185-10031.1426.3328.735136.56499415990.65250.81252.443.2525FF-0.866.1492428.4149695744458.5064878179490.18357950351207161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2022185-10031.5626.128.83136.879379772370.64570.84572.443.2857FF-0.448.5692428.5502560354158.6596932474170.19699565223525161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-02 00:00:03FORECAST2022185-10031.6726.128.885136.069920744820.58050.82052.443.2605FF-0.332.6792428.2017103839158.2653727947370.20060491519525161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-01 20:00:03FORECAST2022185-10031.7425.9328.835136.137757089970.55830.86832.443.3083TF-0.268.7492428.2309476128258.2984007245220.20292220968693161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-01 16:00:02FORECAST2022185-10031.726.1328.915136.439694776410.62050.90052.443.3405TF-0.38.792428.3610206106458.4454469062290.20159609366038161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-01 12:00:02FORECAST2022185-10031.3226.0628.69136.346819733140.57730.85732.443.2973FF-0.6811.3292428.3210212051258.400209066170.18925823402047161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-01 08:00:02FORECAST2022185-10031.9526.3729.16136.066576277960.54410.77412.443.2141FF-0.05000000000000110.9592428.2002688000158.2637445369180.20996917926785161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-01 04:00:05FORECAST2022185-10031.1825.8528.515136.349600176450.50410.76412.443.2041FF-0.827.1892428.3222188229258.4015632831940.18483219940499161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-01 00:00:03FORECAST2022185-10031.2224.9728.095133.685916313060.43550.68552.142.8255FF-0.787.2292427.171006741557.1067474586080.18609018242042161113124.5DRYL
2022-03-31 20:00:03FORECAST2022185-10032.1526.8429.495133.825227266740.42890.72892.152.8789FF0.1513.1592427.2314084782457.174340335090.21681215930137161113124.5DRYL
2022-03-31 16:00:02FORECAST2022185-10031.8727.1829.525133.928173333680.46090.76092.152.9109FF-0.1313.8792427.2760295811857.2242981510750.20726785300613161113124.5DRYL
2022-03-31 12:00:03FORECAST2022185-10031.3126.1228.715133.891388013960.38180.68182.152.8318FF-0.6913.3192427.2600866348357.2064460425010.18893994604768161113124.5DRYL
2022-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2022185-10034.1727.3730.77134.046150204290.38930.71932.162.8793FF2.1714.1792427.3271513136857.2815595113670.29272062114366162113126DRYL
2022-03-31 04:00:06FORECAST2022185-10034.3928.1331.26133.376379258660.20850.40852.182.5885FF2.3918.3992427.0367227075856.9566118852210.30167644178402162112124DRYL
2022-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2022185-10036.1128.732.405135.498552994460.07680.28681.952.2368FF4.1113.1192427.9552528583257.9873175086820.37549144372981162112124DRYL
2022-03-30 20:00:03FORECAST2022185-10036.7328.3632.545134.841441892460.11350.36352.072.4335FF4.7322.7392427.6713676598157.667823871370.40344328615957162112124DRYL
2022-03-30 16:00:02FORECAST2022185-10037.1228.9133.015134.21143911720.05920.24922.062.3092FF5.1224.1292427.3987485370257.3618011180460.42129220953031162112124DRYL
2022-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2022185-10037.5928.3232.955135.460183653080.15280.34282.072.4128FF5.5919.5992427.9386895544557.9686534793020.44301602143047162112124DRYL
2022-03-30 08:00:03FORECAST2022185-10040.0928.4534.27136.112301778590.19320.50322.152.6532FF8.0932.0992428.2199770526358.2860067442060.55986201059888163113127.5DRYL
2022-03-30 04:00:06FORECAST2022185-10039.8128.0233.915135.482388890890.21050.37052.192.5605FF7.8130.8192427.9482753236757.9794546625860.54684628123252163112125DRYL
2022-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2022185-10043.0125.3134.16136.140443331230.14650.29652.22.4965FF11.0122.0192428.2321052697858.2997086600940.68933065263999163112125DRYL
2022-03-29 20:00:03FORECAST2022185-10043.4827.2835.38136.888196036240.13620.25622.22.4562FF11.4839.4892428.554048294358.6639905750330.70857260671936164112126DRYL
2022-03-29 16:00:03FORECAST2022185-10043.3327.1735.25136.88438721820.13620.24622.212.4562FF11.3339.3392428.5524099662758.6621340291160.70249203591858164112126DRYL
2022-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2022185-10033.3425.3829.36138.092006235130.3010.3912.222.611FF1.3424.3492429.0710628343859.2512838842380.26009416646161162112124DRYL
2022-03-29 08:00:02FORECAST2022185-10035.2325.2730.25138.069694813870.2770.4272.152.577FF3.2321.2392429.0614948568859.2403896512740.33694525836687162112124DRYL
2022-03-29 04:00:06FORECAST2022185-10035.2925.2730.28137.18809439930.2770.3472.142.487FF3.2933.2992428.6829970724458.8102034697470.33952507634715162112124DRYL
2022-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2022185-10039.0728.8733.97140.123925992050.3860.5662.122.686FF7.0732.0792429.940157180760.2449027657980.51224133978118163113127.5DRYL
2022-03-28 20:00:03FORECAST2022185-10039.2229.0634.14140.367913531930.3860.5862.162.746FF7.2244.2292430.0442144102360.3644091032420.51927181402813163113127.5DRYL
2022-03-28 16:00:03FORECAST2022185-10038.5128.7333.62139.325614821790.28220.40222.182.5822FF6.5146.5192429.5992377391259.8541779249760.48597821385639162112124DRYL
2022-03-28 12:00:04FORECAST2022185-10036.7128.6832.695139.7308005680.59590.73592.182.9159FF4.7143.7192429.7723590357260.0524357900590.40253301879457162113126DRYL
2022-03-28 08:00:03FORECAST2022185-10034.9627.6431.3141.126202805380.69290.81292.23.0129FF2.9630.9692430.3672026977460.7360891287070.32543215887143162113126DRYL
2022-03-28 04:00:07FORECAST2022185-10032.5827.6730.125141.157260248820.69290.81292.23.0129FF0.5839.5892430.3804181530360.7513206912260.23195245376358161113124.5DRYL
2022-03-28 00:00:04FORECAST2022185-10041.9932.137.045137.817849305990.21320.23322.242.4732FF9.9939.9992428.9534564086859.1174428146140.64580522664791163112125DRYL
2022-03-27 20:00:03FORECAST2022185-10041.6633.4937.575138.409944731780.09090.11092.422.5309FF9.6655.6692429.2073479324459.4065653058030.6312698192867163112125DRYL
2022-03-27 16:00:04FORECAST2022185-10038.5533.8736.21138.416962994850.01110.03112.462.4911FF6.5548.5592429.2103550863459.4099938369930.4878534840461162111122DRYL
2022-03-27 12:00:03FORECAST2022185-10038.5134.336.405138.159082706310.14080.25082.482.7308FF6.5147.5192429.0998244855159.2840381403580.48597821385639162112124DRYL
2022-03-27 08:00:04FORECAST2022185-10036.0534.9935.52138.060846877540.04480.11482.472.5848FF4.0533.0592429.0577003784959.2360694735840.37281821820345162112124DRYL
2022-03-27 04:00:06FORECAST2022185-10035.7834.9235.35138.645648046930.01520.08522.592.6752FF3.7836.7892429.3083117066359.5217290885010.36086599540404162111122DRYL