morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 20, 2021

[ Sunday, September 19, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 21, 2021 ]

DAY 355 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/21/2021 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 51.18°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 34.44°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 42.81°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.385 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 430 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 2.71 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.89 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 3.60 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 262 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.23 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 70 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 3 D₃: 5 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 112.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-21 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2021	355	70	51.18008	34.44008	42.81008	0.0099999999999909	2.71	0.89	3.6	T	F	19.18008	430.18008	262	472.23247964746	0.38508384005162	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	47.23	47.23	47.23	0	2.7	0.89	3.59	T	F	15.23	426.23	263	472.70911005348	0.25873164846807	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.75	42.74	48.745	0.0013	2.7013	0.89	3.5913	T	F	22.75	433.75	263	472.70911005348	0.51147045821793	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	50.14	37.06	43.6	0.002	2.702	0.89	3.592	T	F	18.14	429.14	263	472.70911005348	0.34987690394094	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	355	70	55.4	37.58	46.49	0.0049	2.7049	0.89	3.5949	T	F	23.4	434.4	263	472.70911005348	0.53473843530829	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	55.18	36.46	45.82	0.0106	2.0106	0.89	2.9006	T	F	23.18	432.18	262	472.23247964746	0.5268724199022	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-19 20:00:01	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.99	36.23	45.61	0.0142	2.2642	0.89	3.1542	T	F	22.99	439.99	262	472.23247964746	0.52007048656226	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-19 16:00:01	FORECAST	2021	355	70	55.11	36.93	46.02	0.0133	2.2633	0.89	3.1533	T	F	23.11	440.11	262	472.23247964746	0.52436725023745	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.86	37.35	46.105	0.0268	2.2768	0.89	3.1668	T	F	22.86	439.86	262	472.23247964746	0.51541304171043	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.9	37.46	46.18	0.0365	2.3165	0.89	3.2065	T	F	22.9	439.9	262	472.23247964746	0.51684635522163	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-19 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.78	37.39	46.085	0.0373	2.3573	0.89	3.2473	T	F	22.78	439.78	262	472.23247964746	0.51254583566282	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.64	37.45	46.045	0.0574	0.6874	0.89	1.5774	F	F	22.64	428.64	262	472.23247964746	0.50752675351426	92	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.89	38.14	46.515	0.0455	1.4655	0.89	2.3555	F	F	22.89	435.89	262	472.23247964746	0.51648804652867	92	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.87	37.87	46.37	0.0665	1.5165	0.89	2.4065	F	F	22.87	434.87	262	472.23247964746	0.51577138948399	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.5	37.53	46.015	0.0621	1.6421	0.89	2.5321	F	F	22.5	435.5	262	472.23247964746	0.50250647944496	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.59	37.68	46.135	0.0425	1.6025	0.89	2.4925	F	F	22.59	430.59	262	472.23247964746	0.50573389404216	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.44	37.59	46.015	0.0458	1.8658	0.89	2.7558	F	F	22.44	432.44	262	472.23247964746	0.50035476553176	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	53.74	36.95	45.345	0.0576	2.6876	0.33	3.0176	T	F	21.74	430.74	262	472.23247964746	0.4752671096058	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.67	38.22	46.445	0.0579	2.5779	0.72	3.2979	T	F	22.67	438.67	262	472.23247964746	0.50860239853725	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.62	37.98	46.3	0.0482	2.7282	0.72	3.4482	T	F	22.62	438.62	262	472.23247964746	0.50680962594223	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	52.89	36.76	44.825	0.041	2.451	0.72	3.171	T	F	20.89	433.89	262	472.23247964746	0.44494432581888	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	52.92	37.92	45.42	0.0569	2.4269	0.72	3.1469	T	F	20.92	439.92	262	472.23247964746	0.44601012768627	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	355	70	54.7	37.9	46.3	0.0704	2.4804	0.57	3.0504	T	F	22.7	441.7	262	472.23247964746	0.50967798100751	92	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2021-09-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	355	70	53.73	38.88	46.305	0.0898	2.2198	0.56	2.7798	T	F	21.73	431.73	262	472.23247964746	0.47490918730926	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	49.75	37.89	43.82	0.0615	2.5515	0.83	3.3815	T	F	17.75	438.75	262	472.23247964746	0.33698269665992	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	53.53	38.13	45.83	0.0346	2.6046	1.1	3.7046	T	F	21.53	438.53	262	472.23247964746	0.46775537628799	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	53.27	38.34	45.805	0.0238	2.6138	1.06	3.6738	T	F	21.27	438.27	262	472.23247964746	0.45847131055134	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	48.78	38.94	43.86	0.0293	2.5593	0.89	3.4493	T	F	16.78	429.78	262	472.23247964746	0.30575748951872	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	355	70	51.37	39.55	45.46	0.0404	2.4104	0.89	3.3004	T	F	19.37	436.37	262	472.23247964746	0.39162625083881	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-16 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	355	70	50.58	37.25	43.915	0.0501	2.4801	0.89	3.3701	T	F	18.58	424.58	262	472.23247964746	0.36463409110188	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	50.57	37.89	44.23	0.0406	2.3206	0.98	3.3006	T	F	18.57	440.57	262	472.23247964746	0.36429636553452	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	355	70	51.28	38.95	45.115	0.0432	1.9032	1.01	2.9132	T	F	19.28	442.28	262	472.23247964746	0.38852196277075	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	355	70	52.8	35.71	44.255	0.0039	1.7139	1.17	2.8839	F	F	20.8	438.8	262	472.23247964746	0.4417493375209	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	355	70	52.86	35.64	44.25	0.0039	2.0839	1.3	3.3839	T	F	20.86	436.86	262	472.23247964746	0.44387892177351	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	355	70	51.99	35.26	43.625	0.0241	1.7941	1.56	3.3541	T	F	19.99	436.99	262	472.23247964746	0.41318909169267	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-15 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	355	70	48.18	36.91	42.545	0.329	1.789	1.36	3.149	T	F	16.18	424.18	262	472.23247964746	0.2871084363476	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	355	70	50.01	37.04	43.525	0.273	1.733	1.62	3.353	T	F	18.01	445.01	262	472.23247964746	0.34555867794955	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	355	70	49.91	37	43.455	0.273	1.773	1.53	3.303	T	F	17.91	443.91	262	472.23247964746	0.34225054475251	92	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	355	70	48.63	38.09	43.36	0.1973	1.2773	1.56	2.8373	F	F	16.63	439.63	262	472.23247964746	0.30104514171779	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	355	70	50.38	36.87	43.625	0.1931	1.1231	1.62	2.7431	F	F	18.38	439.38	262	472.23247964746	0.35789985565833	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	355	70	50.25	36.78	43.515	0.1931	1.2031	1.54	2.7431	F	F	18.25	438.25	262	472.23247964746	0.35354603434981	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-14 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	355	70	49.95	36.42	43.185	0.2098	1.4398	1.5	2.9398	F	F	17.95	440.95	262	472.23247964746	0.34357236398475	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	51.5	37.33	44.415	0.1834	1.2534	1.4	2.6534	F	F	19.5	459.5	262	472.23247964746	0.39612238013931	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	355	70	51.3	37.32	44.31	0.1576	1.4176	1.61	3.0276	F	F	19.3	455.3	262	472.23247964746	0.38921119741499	92	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	355	70	41.54	36.85	39.195	0.21	0.8	1.88	2.68	F	F	9.54	442.54	262	472.23247964746	0.12321785297452	92	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-09-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	355	70	37.85	36.86	37.355	0.1462	1.0762	1.77	2.8462	F	F	5.85	434.85	262	472.23247964746	0.067928857552783	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2021-09-13 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	355	70	37.86	37.66	37.76	0.0888	1.0188	1.76	2.7788	F	F	5.86	440.86	262	472.23247964746	0.068047190961757	92	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH