MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 19, 2021

[ Saturday, September 18, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, September 20, 2021 ]

DAY 354 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/20/2021 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.065
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 430

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.70 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.34 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 261
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 100.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-09-20 04:00:06OBSERVATION20213546938.6999633.6000236.1499900.700000000000053.340.253.59TF6.69996429.69996261471.75403460025 00.06457421162748693 143552100DRYVH
2021-09-20 00:00:01FORECAST20213546937.2237.2237.2200.00242.64240.252.8924TF5.22428.22262472.2324796474600.0485278554575593143552100DRYVH
2021-09-19 12:00:01FORECAST20213546945.2337.1441.18500.2522.8920.253.142TF13.23436.23262472.2324796474600.1859979331261293143552100DRYVH
2021-09-19 08:00:01FORECAST20213546944.9536.0540.500.28262.92260.253.1726TF12.95435.95262472.2324796474600.1789163488788893143552100DRYVH
2021-09-19 04:00:07FORECAST20213546944.9936.340.64500.32042.96040.253.2104TF12.99435.99262472.2324796474600.1799175082336493143552100DRYVH
2021-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20213546945.136.3740.73500.5961.2660.251.516FF13.1425.1261471.7540346002500.182688750120699314345280DRYVH
2021-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20213546944.6537.641.12500.6192.0590.252.309FF12.65431.65261471.7540346002500.1715195199018793143552100DRYVH
2021-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20213546944.3836.6740.52500.64682.08680.252.3368FF12.38431.38261471.7540346002500.165031575998993143552100DRYVH
2021-09-18 12:00:02FORECAST20213546944.8837.3341.10500.78482.22480.252.4748FF12.88431.88261471.7540346002500.1771727554031193143552100DRYVH
2021-09-18 08:00:03FORECAST20213546943.9936.7240.35500.78832.19830.252.4483FF11.99426.99261471.7540346002500.1559437596817193143552100DRYVH
2021-09-18 04:00:06FORECAST20213546944.9237.3341.12500.7942.4640.252.714TF12.92428.92261471.7540346002500.1781677794387393143552100DRYVH
2021-09-18 00:00:03FORECAST20213546940.4837.7839.1300.76922.70920.252.9592TF8.48428.48261471.7540346002500.08898732032784793143552100DRYVH
2021-09-17 20:00:02FORECAST20213546944.8237.3441.0800.74142.99140.253.2414TF12.82434.82261471.7540346002500.1756867990968493143552100DRYVH
2021-09-17 16:00:02FORECAST20213546945.0638.1141.58500.77733.14730.253.3973TF13.06435.06261471.7540346002500.1816779641280993143552100DRYVH
2021-09-17 12:00:02FORECAST20213546940.5837.7839.1800.74852.87850.253.1285TF8.58431.58261471.7540346002500.09053858775891493143552100DRYVH
2021-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20213546945.0437.5341.28500.66272.84270.253.0927TF13.04438.04261471.7540346002500.1811738828803893143552100DRYVH
2021-09-17 04:00:07FORECAST2021354694537.0441.0200.68822.72820.252.9782TF13438261471.7540346002500.1801683454692993143552100DRYVH
2021-09-17 00:00:03FORECAST20213546944.8436.6140.72500.61922.43920.252.6892TF12.84428.84261471.7540346002500.1761812402272893143552100DRYVH
2021-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20213546945.6136.5541.0800.94953.06950.253.3195TF13.61439.61261471.7540346002500.1958816590690393143552100DRYVH
2021-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20213546942.9238.7140.81500.97953.41950.253.6695TF10.92435.92261471.7540346002500.132730164921293143552100DRYVH
2021-09-16 12:00:03FORECAST20213546943.1336.2739.701.00333.40330.253.6533TF11.13436.13261471.7540346002500.1370880174690893143552100DRYVH
2021-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20213546939.8336.838.31500.91433.17430.253.4243TF7.83431.83261471.7540346002500.07938165535329993143552100DRYVH
2021-09-16 04:00:09FORECAST20213546943.183740.0900.71883.00880.253.2588TF11.18436.18261471.7540346002500.1381398070161393143552100DRYVH
2021-09-16 00:00:04FORECAST20213546942.6738.9440.80500.46333.07330.253.3233TF10.67424.67261471.7540346002500.1276674982177693143552100DRYVH
2021-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20213546942.738.9440.8200.45313.01310.253.2631TF10.7440.7261471.7540346002500.1282678516987393143552100DRYVH
2021-09-15 16:00:03FORECAST20213546944.1137.894100.35012.62010.252.8701TF12.11442.11261471.7540346002500.1587042837142193143552100DRYVH
2021-09-15 12:00:03FORECAST20213546943.9237.4340.67500.51852.62850.252.8785TF11.92436.92261471.7540346002500.1543481199158493143552100DRYVH
2021-09-15 08:00:04FORECAST20213546940.1236.8438.4800.78693.11690.263.3769TF8.12435.12261471.7540346002500.08356592817750593143552100DRYVH
2021-09-15 04:00:10FORECAST20213546939.0636.9137.98500.66233.06230.273.3323TF7.06436.06261471.7540346002500.06903977534774193143552100DRYVH
2021-09-15 00:00:04FORECAST20213546941.0137.5639.28500.54522.56520.252.8152TF9.01427.01261471.7540346002500.09743736617894393143552100DRYVH
2021-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20213546945.0238.2541.63500.51742.80740.273.0774TF13.02446.02261471.7540346002500.1806706765572793143552100DRYVH
2021-09-14 16:00:05FORECAST20213546945.2839.5642.4200.48582.76580.263.0258TF13.28445.28261471.7540346002500.1872805071464493143552100DRYVH
2021-09-14 12:00:04FORECAST20213546948.9336.5342.7300.372.370.272.64TF16.93441.93261471.7540346002500.2948724837815593243552112.5DRYVH
2021-09-14 08:00:04FORECAST20213546948.4536.9942.7200.34392.26390.292.5539FF16.45440.45261471.7540346002500.2792528313180293243552112.5DRYVH
2021-09-14 04:00:06FORECAST20213546948.423742.7100.34392.22390.332.5539FF16.42439.42261471.7540346002500.2782900941252193243552112.5DRYVH
2021-09-14 00:00:04FORECAST20213546947.5538.1842.86500.54342.40340.332.7334TF15.55441.55261471.7540346002500.2510948633959693243552112.5DRYVH
2021-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20213546948.8437.4543.14500.41882.13880.332.4688FF16.84458.84261471.7540346002500.2919133433436193243552112.5DRYVH
2021-09-13 16:00:04FORECAST20213546948.937.4543.17500.41882.51880.352.8688TF16.9454.9261471.7540346002500.2938845696744393243552112.5DRYVH
2021-09-13 12:00:04FORECAST20213546950.7237.1343.92500.13172.12170.352.4717FF18.72451.72261471.7540346002500.3563598896552793243552112.5DRYVH
2021-09-13 08:00:03FORECAST20213546947.8537.8642.85500.31812.37810.322.6981TF15.85447.85261471.7540346002500.2603113831350593243552112.5DRYVH
2021-09-13 04:00:07FORECAST20213546947.8837.8442.8600.31812.37810.312.6881TF15.88453.88261471.7540346002500.2612425152213593243552112.5DRYVH
2021-09-13 00:00:04FORECAST20213546939.637.1138.35500.81833.07831.184.2583TF7.6431.6261471.7540346002500.07617702990720793143552100WETM
2021-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20213546939.5737.4738.5200.74912.96910.33.2691TF7.57442.57261471.7540346002500.07576637531862293143552100DRYVH
2021-09-12 16:00:03FORECAST20213546938.6236.5237.5700.67992.66990.343.0099TF6.62438.62261471.7540346002500.06361350040461693143552100DRYVH
2021-09-12 12:00:04FORECAST20213546939.1238.0638.5900.58082.17080.322.4908FF7.12442.12261471.7540346002500.06980647530795693143552100DRYVH
2021-09-12 08:00:03FORECAST20213546938.437.3437.8700.37532.37530.312.6853TF6.4434.4261471.7540346002500.06102739302793993143552100DRYVH
2021-09-12 04:00:07FORECAST20213546938.423838.2100.17332.17330.332.5033FF6.42441.42261471.7540346002500.06125905525128993143552100DRYVH