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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 5, 2024

[ Saturday, May 4, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, May 6, 2024 ]

DAY 218 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2024 08:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.34°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.097
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 139

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.69 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 116 in
SWE DAY: 125
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -67

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-05 08:00:01FORECAST2024218-6732.34226.27629.309115.734538838180.6948822651.3048822653.24.504882265TF0.342139.342126440.864175104851.0232119960310.096993307572797161114126WETL
2024-05-05 04:00:03FORECAST2024218-6733.18826.629.894116.478053518410.716535821.326535823.24.52653582TF1.188140.188126441.1604616845651.38551186630.11094203564234161114126WETL
2024-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2024218-6833.31426.58229.948125.050138007490.6960633681.1860633683.24.386063368TF1.314135.314125443.9523912708355.5163077971740.11313626839581161114126WETL
2024-05-04 20:00:01FORECAST2024218-6832.48625.95229.219125.753404644660.8177169771.4077169773.24.607716977TF0.486135.486125444.2271419959555.8630755415570.099272272314235161114126WETL
2024-05-04 16:00:01FORECAST2024218-6832.55825.80829.183125.888771918570.850394161.440394163.24.64039416TF0.558135.558125444.2799706939955.9298598986830.10042627990216161114126WETL
2024-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.3626.07829.219126.370563762650.8846461471.4746461473.24.674646147TF0.36135.36125444.4678484208556.1676525793130.097276066391186161114126WETL
2024-05-04 08:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.37826.63629.507126.958331669871.0110241681.8010241683.25.001024168TF0.378134.378125444.6967410543156.4579563432850.097559427551929161115127.5WETL
2024-05-04 04:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.52226.56429.543127.271746849390.980315491.740315493.24.94031549TF0.522135.522125444.8186537384256.6128470924850.099848062336512161115127.5WETL
2024-05-04 00:00:02FORECAST2024218-6831.62227.03229.327130.830132928690.8866146521.7266146523.24.926614652TF-0.378129.622125446.1960150890658.3758839663550.086170724591842161115127.5WETL
2024-05-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024218-6831.87426.85229.363131.256221932030.8019689371.5719689373.24.771968937TF-0.126126.874125446.36011035158.5875417058340.089851268334199161115127.5WETL
2024-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2024218-6831.40626.7829.093130.720300213260.8019689371.5919689373.24.791968937TF-0.594126.406125446.1536875512458.3213439779520.083106439917408161115127.5WETL
2024-05-03 12:00:01FORECAST2024218-6830.81225.41228.112132.392686250.7846460931.7846460933.24.984646093TF-1.188124.812125446.7969175800259.152644126640.075101291479331161115127.5WETL
2024-05-03 08:00:03FORECAST2024218-6831.33425.84428.589130.983251142270.8629925921.7129925923.24.912992592TF-0.666126.334125446.2550043708958.4519313110090.082103376720453161115127.5WETL
2024-05-03 04:00:04FORECAST2024218-6832.28825.95229.12131.825907988080.8960634761.6660634763.24.866063476TF0.288126.288125446.5792303907958.8707125348860.096148640004215161115127.5WETL
2024-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.30625.55628.931136.842234833510.8271658011.8671658013.225.087165801TF0.306122.306125448.4950483780561.3730647318160.096429594898191161115127.5WETL
2024-05-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.14425.3428.742137.160619504360.7964571231.8364571233.225.056457123TF0.144121.144125448.6158228821961.5324241859790.093922566167831161115127.5WETL
2024-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2024218-6832.6325.37629.003137.248653597510.8094492561.8394492563.225.059449256TF0.63122.63125448.6492000771461.5764986481880.10159001339827161115127.5WETL
2024-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2024218-6832.52224.87228.697137.831102139050.7500004052.1900004053.225.410000405TF0.522122.522125448.8698413397161.8682249488330.099848062336512161115127.5WETL
2024-05-02 08:00:02FORECAST2024218-6831.31624.38627.851137.605426000580.6866145442.1566145443.215.366614544TF-0.684121.316125448.7843901721761.7551671920520.081854036984841161115127.5WETL
2024-05-02 04:00:06FORECAST2024218-6831.3725.37628.373137.893737592470.7562996212.2862996213.25.486299621TF-0.63120.37125448.8935492655361.8996092893750.08260376622745161115127.5WETL
2024-05-02 00:00:02FORECAST2024218-6833.4428.1330.785136.382328885240.6145672611.8445672613.25.044567261TF1.44124.44125448.320417345461.1429826043680.11536119447938161115127.5WETL
2024-05-01 20:00:02FORECAST2024218-6830.97425.3428.157139.896987463090.8322839142.2722839143.185.452283914TF-1.026116.974125449.6498063884862.904653327110.077224006485663161115127.5WETL
2024-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2024218-6830.41624.11627.266138.833814468750.7944886182.2044886183.185.384488618TF-1.584118.416125449.2489217159862.37094144780.070099359133779161115127.5WETL
2024-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2024218-6835.94227.30231.622137.210631134130.6700791022.0600791023.185.240079102TF3.942125.942125448.6347851780761.5574620230090.16604626454729161115127.5WETL
2024-05-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024218-6835.85227.51831.685137.731883501510.618110572.038110573.235.26811057TF3.852121.852125448.8322787207261.8185151244780.16400556851468161115127.5WETL
2024-05-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024218-6832.61224.04428.328138.999344895620.5933074071.9333074073.235.163307407TF0.612117.612125449.3114085210262.453991438550.10129816650913161115127.5WETL
2024-05-01 00:00:04FORECAST2024218-6831.74825.41228.58135.718321917550.4744097051.5044097053.074.574409705TF-0.252117.748125448.067926894760.8110271432230.087996696808419161115127.5WETL
2024-04-30 20:00:03FORECAST2024218-683226.88829.444134.269706826890.5161420111.6661420113.134.796142011TF0120125447.5156069265560.0877893424860.091734636641007161115127.5WETL
2024-04-30 16:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.39624.74628.571133.662181000290.4937010541.6437010543.124.763701054TF0.396118.396125447.2833672834559.7848703962590.097843391568581161115127.5WETL
2024-04-30 12:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.23423.79228.013136.50978093470.3515749931.7115749933.144.851574993TF0.234117.234125448.3688326381761.2067311213840.095309374824728161115127.5WETL
2024-04-30 08:00:03FORECAST2024218-6833.40424.40428.904135.01270208450.1897638821.2097638823.374.579763882TF1.404119.404125447.799145916760.4585726813460.11472236161658161114126WETL
2024-04-30 04:00:05FORECAST2024218-6834.28625.30429.795134.722080345640.1866142741.3266142743.264.586614274TF2.286122.286125447.6883036801260.3134996181970.13110399617141161114126WETL
2024-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2024218-6836.1426.88831.514128.387651805790.1311024330.9011024333.093.991102433TF4.14127.14125445.2519329572357.164850134370.17059313476237161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-29 20:00:03FORECAST2024218-6834.59225.39429.993126.017040632370.1421260610.9121260613.254.162126061TF2.592119.592125444.3300123363855.9931532187760.13714671857085161113124.5WETL
2024-04-29 16:00:04FORECAST2024218-6836.6828.25632.468124.938911233960.1173228980.9073228983.314.217322898TF4.68129.68125443.908892463255.4614937114260.18339337281059161113124.5WETL
2024-04-29 12:00:04FORECAST2024218-6837.56228.02232.792125.544951160430.2460631250.7360631253.334.066063125TF5.562130.562125444.1457549993855.7602571195110.20554675729892161113124.5WETL
2024-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2024218-6836.5928.14832.369127.937617357540.0751968910.6151968913.614.225196891TF4.59126.59125445.0773430933856.9421348151920.18121949249245161113124.5WETL
2024-04-29 04:00:06FORECAST2024218-6836.42827.7732.099127.485472662370.0744094890.5244094893.694.214409489TF4.428122.428125444.9017334712656.7185077798890.17734728119796161113124.5WETL
2024-04-29 00:00:03FORECAST2024218-6836.42825.01630.722130.667767809530.4342522031.6542522033.845.494252203TF4.428128.428125446.1334383458.2952605330760.17734728119796161115127.5WETL
2024-04-28 20:00:03FORECAST2024218-6840.62227.48234.052123.940472124240.3181104081.4281104083.735.158110408TF8.622134.622125443.5178699587754.9698141982270.29369489970148162114128WETL
2024-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2024218-6840.2828.09434.187123.708816796630.3468505811.4768505813.695.166850581TF8.28131.28125443.4270040834554.8558300108390.2830379706959162114128WETL
2024-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2024218-6843.98831.0137.499124.885299087330.2448820221.1048820223.844.944882022TF11.988130.988125443.8879213190255.435075815180.40695227680088162114128WETL
2024-04-28 08:00:02FORECAST2024218-6838.58828.77833.683126.097573677240.1838583671.2338583673.835.063858367TF6.588115.588125444.3614224688656.0328972090910.23321579692966161114126WETL
2024-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2024218-6838.67829.82234.25127.443402148760.1964567991.38645679945.386456799TF6.678119.678125444.8853833399456.6977068190980.23573758478764161114126WETL
2024-04-28 00:00:04FORECAST2024218-6838.2131.06434.637129.86777527440.1074803730.63748037344.637480373TF6.21121.21125445.8247380339557.8982668907610.2227892024973161113124.5WETL
2024-04-27 20:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.10824.8928.499129.071701509740.2346457960.7646457963.894.654645796TF0.108111.108125445.5169265964457.5036277671930.093372018569714161113124.5WETL
2024-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024218-6828.38223.03625.709128.972092817950.2464568260.8064568263.794.596456826TF-3.618107.382125445.4783678752257.4542774099920.048329073627513161113124.5WETL
2024-04-27 12:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.57626.1529.363128.820443744420.1988190050.3888190053.844.228819005TF0.576116.576125445.4196454841357.3791563837460.1007163002472161112123WETL
2024-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2024218-6837.88630.48834.187123.967833860070.0488189240.0488189243.683.728818924TF5.886126.886125443.5285989601154.9832796680740.21406714282967161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2024218-6838.7531.8235.285120.838752677050.0555118410.0555118413.243.295511841FF6.75135.75125442.2967870650353.4465920620050.23776577545205161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-27 00:00:03FORECAST2024218-6838.06630.68634.376116.143596724510.2838584210.3838584213.093.473858421FF6.066137.066125440.4300011966851.1531244443650.21888801635425161112123DRYL
2024-04-26 20:00:03FORECAST2024218-6857.09237.447.246112.884302275270.0417323060.0717323063.023.091732306FF25.092159.092125439.1209577680849.5698629320980.83166671281745164111123DRYL
2024-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2024218-6854.01436.24845.131113.417156770770.0283464720.0483464722.973.018346472FF22.014147.014125439.3357119668849.8282073191440.75166179953227164111123DRYL
2024-04-26 12:00:03FORECAST2024218-6851.76433.40442.584114.9887970300.172.953.12FF19.764139.764125439.9674335100550.5913259116980.68237298052185163112125DRYL
2024-04-26 08:00:04FORECAST2024218-6842.96226.34834.655118.534721032600.233.263.49FF10.962125.962125441.3834898486952.3192688376090.37106358500887162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 04:00:05FORECAST2024218-6844.27626.43835.357119.204061615160.0043307110.2743307113.313.584330711FF12.276126.276125441.6493614214952.6463976911810.4171829457891162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2024218-6830.54225.37627.959125.35997368130.0425197080.2725197083.613.882519708TF-1.458128.542125444.073497701455.669041984410.071662387877116161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:03FORECAST2024218-6826.16819.43622.802120.1440878220.0877953230.3577953233.383.737795323TF-5.832121.168125442.0219908126453.106328883450.031147398304192161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:03FORECAST2024218-6826.18620.9323.558123.026174864270.0917323330.4417323333.513.951732333TF-5.814111.186125443.15892939154.520147939920.031263434056897161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2024218-6832.5424.67428.607116.7270218533900.093.133.22FF0.54133.54125440.663183141951.4373010085880.10013686742917161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2024218-6828.52626.67227.599130.252389316260.1271654230.4271654233.363.787165423TF-3.474121.526125445.9732308035658.0890788832570.049667581499677161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:05FORECAST2024218-6828.7627.62628.193125.840955659040.1763780480.4763780483.243.716378048TF-3.24117.76125444.2613119015555.9062680520280.051905359702015161112123DRYL