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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 4, 2024

[ Friday, May 3, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 5, 2024 ]

DAY 217 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.363
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 148

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.53 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.61 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 114 in
SWE DAY: 124
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-05 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024217-6941.7099232.5200237.11497114.248459166670.529999999999970.609999999999973.23.81TF9.70992147.70992124439.06775128756 50.1628140543770.3628718609079616 2113126DRYL
2024-05-05 00:00:01FORECAST2024217-6837.45430.9234.187122.820726797830.4102364420.4902364423.23.690236442TF5.454143.454125443.0781585336354.4191814593430.22787935352613161113124.5DRYL
2024-05-04 12:00:02FORECAST2024217-6838.24630.66834.457123.352683022720.5102364960.5902364963.23.790236496TF6.246144.246125443.2872077149554.6806664212870.25068908559063162113126DRYL
2024-05-04 08:00:02FORECAST2024217-6837.41829.89433.656123.526833890690.7098429030.7898429033.23.989842903TF5.418143.418125443.3555845088554.7663116421340.22687100798316161113124.5DRYL
2024-05-04 04:00:03FORECAST2024217-6837.6728.99433.332123.886149704980.6795279260.7595279263.23.959527926TF5.67143.67125443.4965670057154.9430820937150.2339820081917161113124.5DRYL
2024-05-04 00:00:02FORECAST2024217-6937.54429.33633.44127.526346775480.7531500130.8431500133.24.043150013TF5.544138.544124444.3351779758656.6644419910960.23041119794906161113124.5WETL
2024-05-03 20:00:02FORECAST2024217-6936.35628.63432.495128.263585699440.6669294940.7669294943.23.966929494TF4.356136.356124444.6224723689857.0288725885960.1982761593067161113124.5DRYL
2024-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2024217-6936.24828.3132.279127.740731558180.6870082450.7870082453.23.987008245TF4.248136.248124444.4187769933456.770379691320.19549508467999161113124.5DRYL
2024-05-03 12:00:01FORECAST2024217-6935.04226.79830.92129.377615683390.8964571770.9964571773.24.196457177TF3.042135.042124445.0555789475657.5802296508250.16606801239379161114126WETL
2024-05-03 08:00:03FORECAST2024217-6935.61826.90631.262127.705282519880.7846460930.8546460933.24.054646093TF3.618135.618124444.4049568363156.7528605660170.17974802487501161113124.5WETL
2024-05-03 04:00:04FORECAST2024217-6935.27627.42831.352128.436618282270.740157880.770157883.23.97015788TF3.276135.276124444.689823463957.1144571102450.17154247809375161113124.5DRYL
2024-05-03 00:00:02FORECAST2024217-6934.91626.54630.731133.474423261950.988189511.058189513.24.25818951TF2.916130.916124446.6378148066459.6147247382950.16316738820556161114126WETL
2024-05-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024217-6934.05225.82629.939133.901054574890.9787406861.0587406863.24.258740686TF2.052130.052124446.8016403154359.8272108240250.1441675283196161114126WETL
2024-05-02 16:00:01FORECAST2024217-6934.1625.98830.074133.920819283390.9937013241.0537013243.24.253701324TF2.16131.16124446.8092256192259.8370575583030.14645761174285161114126WETL
2024-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2024217-6933.94426.34830.146134.756879704431.3279534731.4579534733.24.657953473TF1.944130.944124447.1297405588260.2538086607590.14190164434515161114126WETL
2024-05-02 08:00:02FORECAST2024217-6933.81825.10629.462134.707558754611.3244101641.4844101643.24.684410164TF1.818130.818124447.1108515993960.2292113116470.13928865736059161114126WETL
2024-05-02 04:00:05FORECAST2024217-6933.92625.75429.84134.705952688131.3704731811.5304731813.24.730473181TF1.926129.926124447.1102364675560.2284103599750.14152634765609161115127.5WETL
2024-05-02 00:00:02FORECAST2024217-6935.67230.50633.089133.932790912030.9889769121.2389769123.194.428976912TF3.672131.672124446.8138199080859.8430219183560.18106576875804161114126WETL
2024-05-01 20:00:02FORECAST2024217-6932.37825.73629.057136.166566870641.1740163821.4440163823.184.624016382TF0.378127.378124447.66862402460.957499629050.11173781412962161114126WETL
2024-05-01 16:00:01FORECAST2024217-6933.38625.05229.219135.183174601641.1082683151.4082683153.184.588268315TF1.386129.386124447.2929045910860.4664748194120.13057874703695161114126WETL
2024-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2024217-6933.78228.8531.316134.608118423941.0385832381.3885832383.184.568583238TF1.782130.782124447.0727607012660.1796231165920.13854812415174161114126WETL
2024-05-01 08:00:02FORECAST2024217-6933.40429.10231.253135.362202650630.9996068391.4296068393.224.649606839TF1.404127.404124447.3613747740560.555821070230.13093398950285161114126WETL
2024-05-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024217-6932.43224.45828.445136.296564100110.9303154631.3703154633.24.570315463TF0.432126.432124447.7182211783861.0224552316250.11269519934895161114126WETL
2024-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2024217-6932.70226.5129.606133.487101925760.6708665041.0608665043.044.100866504TF0.702126.702124446.6426859462859.6210377433080.11756971561781161114126WETL
2024-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2024217-6932.95427.64430.299131.92413990720.7334649631.1634649633.124.283464963TF0.954128.954124446.0410124679358.8435769331670.12225180641929161114126WETL
2024-04-30 16:00:03FORECAST2024217-6932.52226.3329.426131.322425603940.7133862121.1533862123.124.273386212TF0.522126.522124445.8087406751658.5446851808970.11430379093521161114126WETL
2024-04-30 12:00:03FORECAST2024217-6932.01825.98829.003134.829461990461.0547249791.3847249793.124.504724979TF0.018000000000001126.018124447.1575338520160.2900097142470.1055032480728161114126WETL
2024-04-30 08:00:03FORECAST2024217-6933.56627.4130.488134.139506227950.8322839141.0722839143.324.392283914TF1.566126.566124446.8931279273759.9460235168410.13416113891098161114126WETL
2024-04-30 04:00:04FORECAST2024217-6932.46826.85229.66133.900705872230.9185044331.1785044333.224.398504433TF0.468129.468124446.8015064868459.8270371033640.11333669149752161114126WETL
2024-04-30 00:00:02FORECAST2024217-6936.2329.42632.828128.047983083660.6610239790.8210239793.043.861023979TF4.23132.23124444.538509909756.9222595969540.19503388132833161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-29 20:00:03FORECAST2024217-6934.08828.0431.064125.297160052860.6685042981.0685042982.954.018504298TF2.088126.088124443.4632070549555.5646804319190.14492819925084161114126WETL
2024-04-29 16:00:03FORECAST2024217-6935.81629.64232.729124.339936213770.685039741.115039742.984.09503974TF3.816133.816124443.0872605388455.0934417125320.18460917630486161114126WETL
2024-04-29 12:00:03FORECAST2024217-6938.3931.24434.817125.093115926780.4200789670.9000789672.923.820078967TF6.39134.39124443.3831460320955.4641792865720.25496229124815162113126DRYL
2024-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2024217-6937.63429.60633.62127.81192990910.4771656121.1171656123.034.147165612TF5.634130.634124444.4465306130656.8055688190610.23295866517576161114126WETL
2024-04-29 04:00:06FORECAST2024217-6937.50829.5733.539127.389726305420.4106301431.1306301433.014.140630143TF5.508126.508124444.2818792792956.5969470038440.22939658094577161114126WETL
2024-04-29 00:00:03FORECAST2024217-6937.02227.1432.081128.44541612610.6236223841.7936223843.275.063622384TF5.022133.022124444.6932471404357.1188091774190.21594639014776161115127.5WETL
2024-04-28 20:00:03FORECAST2024217-6938.01229.7533.881122.999703807730.4515750471.4915750473.354.841575047TF6.012135.012124442.5593504677354.4346690248710.24382673164357161114126WETL
2024-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2024217-6937.86830.3834.124122.884442475080.4779530141.5179530143.34.817953014TF5.868131.868124442.513865693454.3780696732250.23965459918473161115127.5WETL
2024-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2024217-6936.526.04231.271125.545986642960.2318898891.4218898893.284.701889889TF4.5127.5124443.5607832873155.6872761739290.2020211034564161114126WETL
2024-04-28 08:00:02FORECAST2024217-6934.05224.83629.444126.456279510190.244094621.664094623.224.88409462TF2.052118.052124443.9172255314456.1361207511920.1441675283196161115127.5WETL
2024-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2024217-6934.8826.07830.479127.514971068770.2696851851.7896851853.45.189685185TF2.88121.88124444.3307407644856.6588215535480.16234470700813161115127.5WETL
2024-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2024217-6939.59633.09836.347129.564793097670.5330711540.8330711543.74.533071154TF7.596123.596124445.12822859657.6729468399750.2921872927883162113126WETL
2024-04-27 20:00:03FORECAST2024217-6935.92429.28232.603127.51720069990.4074805350.7274805353.694.417480535TF3.924119.924124444.3316104651356.6599231489920.18729476407089161113124.5WETL
2024-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024217-6934.35827.5930.974127.206623031180.4255907810.7955907813.554.345590781TF2.358120.358124444.2104175913456.5065071370660.15071903279493161113124.5WETL
2024-04-27 12:00:03FORECAST2024217-6936.73427.17631.955127.562570066270.1251969180.3151969183.714.025196918TF4.734124.734124444.3493063888256.6823395301210.20819596862485161112123WETL
2024-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2024217-6944.47431.71238.093124.1981611657700.13.583.68FF12.474130.474124443.0315010974655.0236977748170.4624586163537162112124DRYL
2024-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2024217-6944.97832.43238.705121.1758608133200.073.173.24FF12.978137.978124441.8380559705253.5401067723120.48107233059992162111122DRYL
2024-04-27 00:00:03FORECAST2024217-6944.83431.92838.381115.613280598970.102362260.232362262.963.19236226FF12.834139.834124439.6174132445150.8256113536310.47574812724636162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2024217-6949.83832.14440.991114.910063075270.0185039470.1785039472.873.048503947FF17.838142.838124439.3344405954550.4839482799620.65675550966034163112125DRYL
2024-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2024217-6947.330.81239.056115.132760770770.0062992160.1662992162.822.986299216FF15.3134.3124439.4241081817850.59211072420.56673033524219163112125DRYL
2024-04-26 12:00:03FORECAST2024217-6944.97828.68836.833116.341895430.0271653690.3571653692.763.117165369FF12.978128.978124439.9100730330451.1799717154150.48107233059992162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 08:00:04FORECAST2024217-6938.64225.41232.027118.903937335370.0795276020.4695276023.023.489527602FF6.642123.642124440.9348680517352.4288919198010.26253097960055162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 04:00:05FORECAST2024217-6939.09225.41232.252119.614964802220.1051181670.5051181673.073.575118167TF7.092123.092124441.2180927826252.7762866382940.27632641672812162113126DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2024217-6941.50426.20433.854124.992802006880.0964567450.5764567453.263.836456745TF9.504138.504124443.3437705299955.4147801308390.35572632728871162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:03FORECAST2024217-6941.05427.21234.133119.189124975680.19685050.72685052.923.6468505TF9.054136.054124441.0485287497952.56818821350.34028924618261162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024217-6938.08424.15231.118121.934368738990.2051182210.8651182212.993.855118221TF6.084126.084124442.1384370414653.9118712158950.24592738284645161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2024217-6943.3429.85836.599116.729973853390.0921260340.2821260342.943.222126034FF11.34142.34124440.065730007151.36886115750.42093786162566162112124DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2024217-6936.6824.15230.416122.448914127480.2492127330.4492127333.213.659212733TF4.68133.68124442.3418759113454.1642823784550.20676122043054161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2024217-6936.69824.13430.416122.587066306880.2409450120.4509450123.093.540945012TF4.698129.698124442.3964526975254.2320832807580.20723881946661161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2024217-6930.75825.89828.328121.998315471350.1779528520.4579528522.743.197952852FF-1.242121.758124442.163734512153.9432307729960.085661417431502161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:04FORECAST2024217-6931.04623.5427.293122.15894653230.0570866450.3870866452.753.137086645FF-0.954127.046124442.2272623985954.0220165024740.089930977163616161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:04FORECAST2024217-6930.0223.59426.807122.288203628060.0842520140.4342520142.713.144252014FF-1.98121.02124442.2783633966954.0854265633380.075413194165346161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:04FORECAST2024217-6925.89819.23822.568120.8350355006500.142.852.99FF-6.102124.898124441.7028952282853.3731850256510.034340012564266161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024217-6928.6721.41625.043122.344642290420.0161417410.1961417413.093.286141741FF-3.33124.67124442.3006708133154.1131173554660.059112914085541161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:05FORECAST2024217-6927.89626.65427.275122.480120285110.0181102460.1981102463.053.248110246FF-4.104114.896124442.3542055258954.1795963014370.051093972430405161112123DRYL