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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 24, 2023

[ Thursday, March 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 25, 2023 ]

DAY 175 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/25/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.10°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.067
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -17

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.84 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.60 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 165 in
SWE DAY: 82
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -110

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-25 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023175-11024.2799817.9299421.10496164.906166250.840000000000031.64.456.05TT-7.72002-16.7200282434.07840018329 71.582204826160.06711219494365917 1115127.5WETL
2023-03-25 00:00:01FORECAST2023175-10922.3715.94419.157162.1096528240.641732631.401732634.335.73173263TF-9.63-14.6383433.5363791380870.2804319086470.040124847217932161114126WETL
2023-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2023175-10922.40616.3419.373159.380506577890.720472831.480472834.335.81047283TF-9.594-14.59483432.3930471181668.9150228904480.040536501866895161114126WETL
2023-03-24 08:00:02FORECAST2023175-10922.02815.27818.653159.363117554220.696850771.456850774.335.78685077TF-9.972-14.97283432.3857368257468.906339006530.036380672885078161114126WETL
2023-03-24 04:00:11FORECAST2023175-10921.1114.30617.708159.995533912630.716535821.476535824.335.80653582TF-10.89-15.8983432.6513951761869.2222909692560.027720897571365161114126WETL
2023-03-24 00:00:06FORECAST2023175-11023.12614.75618.941159.603413301240.736220871.566220874.456.01622087TT-8.874-17.87482431.8569615990768.9258451291150.049510828284012171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 20:00:01FORECAST2023175-11024.0814.66619.373153.900267439990.791339011.761339014.456.21133901TT-7.92-18.9282429.4341577348166.0900317232560.063757393526331171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 16:00:02FORECAST2023175-11022.65815.6219.139153.563591163580.712598811.682598814.456.13259881TT-9.342-20.34282429.2900312488665.9233188493010.043514644354813171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2023175-11022.67615.67419.175156.612366131290.645669641.615669644.456.06566964TT-9.324-20.32482430.5906854726767.4358260859680.043733934453719171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 08:00:04FORECAST2023175-11023.34217.25820.3155.998724022940.602362531.522362534.455.97236253TT-8.658-17.65882430.3297053141167.1308849381710.052491540290801171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 04:00:15FORECAST2023175-11024.09818.44621.272156.966485216680.732283861.672283864.456.12228386TT-7.902-16.90282430.7411062640567.6119174886110.064053926550985171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:05FORECAST2023175-11023.59417.620.597159.394987442160.535433361.505433364.455.95543336TF-8.406-21.40682431.7690348630268.8218198899070.0561465348893171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 20:00:04FORECAST2023175-11023.88217.00620.444159.476407345220.539370371.569370374.456.01937037TT-8.118-24.11882431.8033882830268.8624530428710.060565365560836171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 16:00:03FORECAST2023175-11021.90216.9719.436161.145322020560.771653961.841653964.456.29165396TT-10.098-26.09882432.5059887789169.6963168375980.035075221349275171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 12:00:03FORECAST2023175-11021.4717.27619.373162.634989771851.007874562.037874564.456.48787456TT-10.53-26.5382433.1306169103670.4421934510910.030887378780092171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:04FORECAST2023175-11022.89218.39220.642161.751443458250.996063531.906063534.456.35606353TT-9.108-24.10882432.7604249641469.9996234095550.04643534100787171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:16FORECAST2023175-11022.20816.48419.346163.665345819181.185040012.185040014.456.63504001TT-9.792-25.79282433.5612718010870.9589554831280.038314110775544171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:05FORECAST2023175-11022.0117.76219.886163.373374814991.000000541.840000544.436.27000054TT-9.99-25.9982433.4393519539170.8124497063340.036191787587108171115127.5WETL
2023-03-21 20:00:04FORECAST2023175-11022.62217.8720.246162.664870259620.913386321.723386324.426.14338632TT-9.378-25.37882433.1431218452470.4571697188040.043078718514094171115127.5WETL
2023-03-21 16:00:04FORECAST2023175-11021.72217.40219.562163.501989293680.940945391.840945394.426.26094539TT-10.278-26.27882433.4930693113270.8769791774240.033277014849569171115127.5WETL
2023-03-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023175-11019.88616.21418.05162.487526889920.7874021.6174024.426.037402TT-12.114-31.11482433.0688900360770.3682929149230.018903409656637171115127.5WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023175-11019.6715.22417.447161.819213938040.653543661.433543664.425.85354366TF-12.33-31.3382432.7888491517570.0335513708860.017625494250622171114126WETL
2023-03-21 04:00:14FORECAST2023175-11020.53416.77218.653161.340396989460.625984591.375984594.435.80598459TF-11.466-28.46682432.5879196275169.7939066855490.023218269799801171114126WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:05FORECAST2023175-11022.3717.18619.778163.843399359330.728346851.458346854.095.54834685TF-9.63-26.6382433.635578171671.0483272107840.040124847217932171114126WETL
2023-03-20 20:00:07FORECAST2023175-11023.19816.8820.039161.148926288430.720472831.500472834.295.79047283TF-8.802-27.80282432.5075029277569.6981197084980.050489063934888171115127.5WETL
2023-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2023175-11022.29816.57419.436161.092035304850.771653961.451653964.35.75165396TF-9.702-28.70282432.4836014726269.6696635971960.039311696162876171114126WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023175-11021.07416.23218.653165.235167653931.011811571.831811574.316.14181157TT-10.926-31.92682434.2152427404571.7476284321090.027419648876406171115127.5WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:04FORECAST2023175-11021.07416.23218.653165.235167653931.011811571.831811574.316.14181157TT-10.926-31.92682434.2152427404571.7476284321090.027419648876406171115127.5WETL
2023-03-20 04:00:16FORECAST2023175-11025.10616.19620.651163.629946065150.594488511.374488514.35.67448851TF-6.894-28.89482433.5464945583270.9411895213130.082424784413424171114126WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:05FORECAST2023175-11021.32616.32218.824167.670419366090.956693431.556693434.175.72669343TF-10.674-23.67482435.2245963308972.9742905852390.029586679849463171115127.5WETL
2023-03-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023175-11020.87615.13418.005168.133544359351.035433631.615433634.145.75543363TF-11.124-27.12482435.4158449972273.2080092896020.025811057968385171115127.5WETL
2023-03-19 16:00:04FORECAST2023175-11020.3916.5218.455169.053637942661.114173831.684173834.35.98417383TT-11.61-30.6182435.7951332153173.6727526677560.022193938637552171115127.5WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023175-11021.93816.28619.112166.12204021470.507874291.197874294.395.58787429TF-10.062-32.06282434.5835532465872.1939065090770.035444236007189171114126WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:06FORECAST2023175-11022.47814.75618.617165.432870739760.47244121.08244124.395.4724412TF-9.522-31.52282434.2974189989671.8470687798690.041370063142316171114126WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:14FORECAST2023175-11024.11614.93619.526164.674561416760.295275751.025275754.345.36527575TF-7.884-29.88482433.9819994702171.4657954255230.064351527096297171114126WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:07FORECAST2023175-11024.24214.75619.499169.588047732680.476378211.276378214.275.54637821TF-7.758-33.75882436.0150252274173.9429369104320.066464802169266171114126WETL
2023-03-18 20:00:06FORECAST2023175-11023.2715.9819.625170.226609268950.547244391.327244394.315.63724439TF-8.73-32.7382436.2773811424974.2660192926260.051482585473257171114126WETL
2023-03-18 16:00:06FORECAST2023175-11025.10616.19620.651170.262233981820.594488511.374488514.35.67448851TF-6.894-29.89482436.2920051896974.2840514720030.082424784413424171114126WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:06FORECAST2023175-11024.09817.61820.858169.720689006670.606299541.326299544.355.67629954TF-7.902-28.90282436.0695565192674.0100255872840.064053926550985171114126WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:06FORECAST2023175-11027.6818.17622.928169.252773550580.570866451.410866454.165.57086645TF-4.32-29.3282435.8771058445473.7734090913880.14673664138851171114126WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023175-11025.0714.52219.796170.418946249860.566929441.376929444.25.57692944TF-6.93-35.9382436.3563203152774.3633842975970.081706961189465171114126WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:07FORECAST2023175-11022.69415.94419.319170.113931755490.350393890.820393893.734.55039389TF-9.306-46.30682436.2311179861174.2089906347080.043954112458787171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 20:00:07FORECAST2023175-11023.1818.28420.732169.861590791270.370078940.830078943.764.59007894TF-8.82-41.8282436.1274637400774.0813047786480.050243077738053171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 16:00:04FORECAST2023175-11025.3418.48221.911170.128577185870.468504190.848504193.774.61850419TF-6.66-38.6682436.2371318585574.2164025587410.087206377558865171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:08FORECAST2023175-11023.2717.79820.534171.65858115170.322834821.012834823.934.94283482TF-8.73-39.7382436.864168537974.9914833272340.051482585473257171114126WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023175-11024.31417.8721.092168.91984434970.255905650.765905653.724.48590565TF-7.686-37.68682435.7400348285373.6051388601660.067696203373576171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:17FORECAST2023175-11025.26817.27621.272169.643758685990.240157610.890157613.624.51015761TF-6.732-36.73282436.0379312730373.9711135908180.085713630932496171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:07FORECAST2023175-11028.20219.81424.008175.764501398970.385826981.235826983.764.99582698TF-3.798-31.79882438.5348900996877.0788663044210.16306189307875171114126WETL
2023-03-16 20:00:18FORECAST2023175-11027.5920.26423.927174.33439768080.342519871.142519873.474.61251987TF-4.41-39.4182437.9549494948576.3506123315110.14403651786401171114126WETL
2023-03-16 16:00:07FORECAST2023175-11026.56420.80423.684176.263866383580.421260071.531260073.475.00126007TF-5.436-31.43682438.7368986034777.3334620729860.11561372503785171115127.5WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:04FORECAST2023175-11023.10816.82619.967176.972677303680.350393891.300393893.775.07039389TF-8.892-42.89282439.0231948278277.6951101870960.049268640474781171114126WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:07FORECAST2023175-11025.10619.29222.199175.855954697860.350393891.210393893.784.99039389TF-6.894-40.89482438.5719049415777.1254810471580.082424784413424171114126WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:11FORECAST2023175-11025.37619.63422.505173.223865199010.618110570.908110573.544.44811057TF-6.624-46.62482437.5031471814975.7859861915090.087959966597337171113124.5WETL
2023-03-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023175-11028.09422.1925.142178.691229863290.677165720.837165723.584.41716572TF-3.906-36.90682439.7152002605178.5732499241350.15959116003442171113124.5WETL
2023-03-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023175-11028.59822.20825.403177.219375492450.633858610.773858613.734.50385861TF-3.402-39.40282439.1227179782877.8210538446560.17620308073373171113124.5WETL
2023-03-15 16:00:05FORECAST2023175-11036.7725.30431.037172.059268397080.228346580.278346583.764.03834658TF4.77-23.2382437.0279786746875.1947142798220.55684719747934173112125WETL
2023-03-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023175-11040.127.0533.575169.76435829380.011811030.101811033.543.64181103FF8.1-20.982436.0875057548474.0321155744150.71909177997109174112126DRYL
2023-03-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023175-11039.50621.66830.587171.6246260508300.153.723.87TF7.506-30.49482436.8502792496974.9742658164290.69222281391245173112125DRYL
2023-03-15 04:00:18FORECAST2023175-11033.31419.34626.33178.281171741250.165354420.855354423.894.74535442TF1.314-37.68682439.5503574263178.363552761250.3780089474624172113126WETL
2023-03-15 00:00:08FORECAST2023175-11023.97223.97223.972177.975434768370.027559070.857559073.984.83755907TF-8.028-44.02882439.4273397819178.2072718467960.062000491984523171113124.5WETL
2023-03-14 20:00:07FORECAST2023175-11023.73823.73823.738178.400276392750.031496080.871496084.044.91149608TF-8.262-50.26282439.5982550354678.4244502000940.058323196626439171113124.5WETL
2023-03-14 16:00:07FORECAST2023175-11025.86225.86225.862170.4949672616400.123.663.78TF-6.138-46.13882436.3875103173874.4018742849490.098611541460021171112123DRYL
2023-03-14 12:00:06FORECAST2023175-11025.12425.12425.124171.9059085266500.23.743.94TF-6.876-53.87682436.9653013346375.1169171205490.08278546573156171112123DRYL
2023-03-14 08:00:07FORECAST2023175-11028.43628.43628.436173.841617434770.055118140.445118143.644.08511814TF-3.564-55.56482437.7546270392276.0999724040510.1707483722974171112123WETL
2023-03-14 04:00:19FORECAST2023175-11028.11228.11228.112173.3798133250.055118140.525118143.383.90511814TF-3.888-52.88882437.5666691149675.8652274083940.16016624198105171113124.5DRYL