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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 23, 2023

[ Wednesday, March 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, March 24, 2023 ]

DAY 174 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/24/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.182
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -16

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.64 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.36 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 156 in
SWE DAY: 81
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 429.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -111

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-24 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023174-11128.3499618.3000223.32499156.499030833330.639999999999990.789999999999994.575.36TF-3.65004-15.6500481429.90534663366 67.2797700982360.1815287750645317 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2023174-11027.78817.11422.451155.838224934420.712598810.862598814.425.28259881TF-4.212-9.21282430.2613783936467.0511694667020.16501105742899161113124.5WETL
2023-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2023174-11026.38417.04221.713153.46822883090.854331171.004331174.425.42433117TF-5.616-10.61682429.249185540865.8761122320540.12812446697671161114126WETL
2023-03-23 08:00:02FORECAST2023174-11028.09419.25623.675153.144874799090.795276020.945276024.425.36527602TF-3.906-8.90682429.1106124833465.716091023720.17388120896656161113124.5WETL
2023-03-23 04:00:14FORECAST2023174-11028.23819.83224.035153.443860165920.822835090.972835094.425.39283509TF-3.762-8.76282429.2387463379365.8640501708720.17815814643582161113124.5WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:04FORECAST2023174-11127.82420.46224.143156.644666729850.913386321.003386324.575.57338632TF-4.176-20.17681429.9674789130767.3521124390130.16603916764063171114126WETL
2023-03-22 20:00:01FORECAST2023174-11127.10420.22823.666156.646407879520.893701271.063701274.575.63370127TF-4.896-22.89681429.9682215963967.3529774154220.14626013618171171114126WETL
2023-03-22 16:00:01FORECAST2023174-11126.6919.38223.036156.955152953960.929134361.099134364.575.66913436TF-5.31-23.3181430.0998641697167.5063899662320.13563238267769171114126WETL
2023-03-22 12:00:03FORECAST2023174-11127.42819.38223.405157.156855476380.885827251.055827254.575.62582725TF-4.572-22.57281430.1858102567667.6066492105090.1549566733222171114126WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2023174-11127.75219.95823.855156.525469948510.846457150.936457154.575.50645715TF-4.248-22.24881429.9166279950267.29290223560.16398706765605171113124.5WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:16FORECAST2023174-11126.79818.66222.73157.148722140820.885827251.025827254.575.59582725TF-5.202-23.20281430.1823454684967.6026058779140.13835258765587171114126WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:05FORECAST2023174-11127.42818.71623.072157.509147235120.767716950.847716954.575.41771695TF-4.572-22.57281430.3358173222667.7818276111570.1549566733222171113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2023174-11127.69818.51823.108157.334019198560.744094890.814094894.575.38409489TF-4.302-23.30281430.2612639686667.6947339656440.16245881064597171113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 16:00:03FORECAST2023174-11127.51818.80623.162157.980234005790.842520140.902520144.575.47252014TF-4.482-23.48281430.5361980795568.0162093205690.1574316152224171113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023174-11126.4218.55422.487157.748636246880.759842930.829842934.575.39984293TF-5.58-25.5881430.4377159690567.9009626833390.1289925039393171113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023174-11126.27617.67221.974157.7009385410.724409840.784409844.575.35440984TF-5.724-25.72481430.4174263204167.877232095130.12554465970087171113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 04:00:13FORECAST2023174-11125.95217.94221.947157.480447233060.681102730.761102734.575.33110273TF-6.048-24.04881430.3236017823667.7675532636290.118022894694171113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:05FORECAST2023174-11127.33819.63423.486159.236353289030.673228710.733228714.244.97322871TF-4.662-23.66281431.0693285426968.641907891890.15250749736413171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 20:00:06FORECAST2023174-11127.39219.50823.45156.637625368480.744094890.784094894.445.22409489TF-4.608-25.60881429.9644754033667.3486144199880.15397391147635171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2023174-11127.03219.23823.135156.181795058290.641732630.691732634.445.13173263TF-4.968-25.96881429.7699255395367.122238432830.14437284846742171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:05FORECAST2023174-11126.54618.57222.559158.675688145050.712598810.842598814.445.28259881TF-5.454-28.45481430.8315774917168.3624970331160.1320626128698171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:04FORECAST2023174-11126.54618.57222.559158.675688145050.712598810.842598814.445.28259881TF-5.454-28.45481430.8315774917168.3624970331160.1320626128698171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 04:00:15FORECAST2023174-11126.619.56223.081159.398455875970.775590970.775590974.455.22559097TF-5.4-29.481431.1380053591168.7227323236880.13339363108039171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:04FORECAST2023174-11126.63619.59823.117160.969868995190.559055420.599055424.324.91905542TF-5.364-20.36481431.8022908111369.5071581836920.13428607140012171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 20:00:05FORECAST2023174-11125.93418.53622.235160.644433239670.527559340.577559344.294.86755934TF-6.066-23.06681431.6649365509369.3445690816630.1176145424484171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 16:00:04FORECAST2023174-11125.71818.93222.325161.239449773010.519685320.569685324.455.01968532TF-6.282-26.28281431.9159848256269.6418957414520.11279195598798171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023174-11125.08818.19421.641162.7107106340.685039740.715039744.515.22503974TF-6.912-28.91281432.5351099630870.3780951162460.099534336508801171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:05FORECAST2023174-11125.68218.35622.019162.281182952680.614173560.614173564.545.15417356TF-6.318-29.31881432.354598365570.1630156777840.11200207513449171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:13FORECAST2023174-11125.23218.39221.812162.851775478160.732283860.732283864.495.22228386TF-6.768-28.76881432.5943503673970.4487580191490.10245972221487171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:07FORECAST2023174-11126.2418.42822.334166.184598615440.803150040.803150044.425.22315004TF-5.76-32.7681433.987817551972.1220912638540.12469281058859171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023174-11126.29419.59822.946166.273225105920.783464990.783464994.465.24346499TF-5.706-30.70681434.0247118812372.1666886201590.12597209910662171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 16:00:06FORECAST2023174-11126.619.56223.081166.030743792640.775590970.775590974.455.22559097TF-5.4-30.481433.9237495874672.0446828932970.13339363108039171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:06FORECAST2023174-11126.67220.28223.477165.427508422850.724409840.784409844.445.22440984TF-5.328-28.32881433.672309670271.7413296607230.13518259159473171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:06FORECAST2023174-11127.19420.44423.819165.445648464010.838583130.848583134.35.14858313TF-4.806-31.80681433.6798764024171.7504483771890.14864238158482171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023174-11126.31218.42822.37166.187986365350.807087050.867087054.295.15708705TF-5.688-35.68881433.9892279912872.1237959041250.1264005491666171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:07FORECAST2023174-11125.57418.9522.262167.068470040740.448819140.488819143.864.34881914TF-6.426-44.42681434.3553931153972.5670909817340.10965610882763171112123WETL
2023-03-17 20:00:07FORECAST2023174-11127.66220.53424.098166.947889914050.440945120.490945123.884.37094512TF-4.338-40.33881434.3052960613672.5063527559410.16144512538929171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 16:00:04FORECAST2023174-11128.20220.40824.305166.488696730850.381889970.381889973.924.30188997TF-3.798-38.79881434.1143759480472.2751366837160.17708275927269171112123WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:07FORECAST2023174-11128.68821.00224.845169.051011825870.625984590.855984593.914.76598459TF-3.312-38.31281435.1768774260973.5670914521050.19194517113518171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023174-11130.99221.00225.997166.932701887030.480315220.560315223.824.38031522TF-1.008-37.00881434.2989848504372.4987029678790.27214617204001172113126WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:17FORECAST2023174-11131.1919.32825.259167.771735476920.594488510.674488513.754.42448851TF-0.81-36.8181434.6472711317872.9215269980870.27973961019299172113126WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:07FORECAST2023174-11131.89219.90425.898172.695207960690.66929170.95929173.84.7592917TF-0.108-35.10881436.6761351979175.4118759794740.30745895424804172113126WETL
2023-03-16 20:00:18FORECAST2023174-11130.25416.41223.333171.535865078670.696850770.796850773.624.41685077TF-1.746-41.74681436.2006745899374.8240600636820.24477604253904171113124.5WETL
2023-03-16 16:00:06FORECAST2023174-11130.52417.97824.251172.834173024790.937008381.107008383.624.72700838TF-1.476-33.47681436.733032546975.4823925128520.25461478451215172114128WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:04FORECAST2023174-11125.66417.99621.83173.807876170270.744094891.154094893.724.87409489TF-6.336-41.33681437.1311391533875.9768349041390.11160861647334171114126WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:07FORECAST2023174-11127.4120.35423.882172.933186561620.653543661.073543663.724.79354366TF-4.59-40.5981436.773560037675.5326435431650.15446477710402171114126WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:11FORECAST2023174-11127.30219.61623.459167.986667528370.244094620.314094623.673.98409462TF-4.698-46.69881434.7363709481173.0299142089490.15153503934315171112123DRYL
2023-03-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023174-11128.70622.04625.376172.194730907350.161417410.441417413.453.89141741TF-3.294-40.29481436.4710552097375.1580159006890.19250987307833171112123DRYL
2023-03-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023174-11129.1221.79425.457171.180854887650.137795350.537795353.484.01779535TF-2.88-42.8881436.0548003631974.6442335040330.20577608511969171113124.5WETL
2023-03-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023174-11132.88221.57827.23170.436586608410.047244120.297244123.663.95724412TF0.882-35.11881435.7485521116874.267495841470.34846220704125172112124DRYL
2023-03-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023174-11132.32423.43227.878169.957742164740.019685050.129685053.653.77968505TF0.324-35.67681435.5512130152774.0253007611920.3250948399408172112124DRYL
2023-03-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023174-11130.0220.33625.178171.750774850830.051181130.381181133.644.02118113TF-1.98-44.9881436.288917446774.93295963030.23641727633375171112123WETL
2023-03-15 04:00:17FORECAST2023174-11129.15620.46224.809176.631893975610.153543391.133543393.64.73354339TF-2.844-45.84481438.2802089636477.4142634012750.20695470318646171114126WETL
2023-03-15 00:00:08FORECAST2023174-11130.59622.94626.771177.631647458010.188976481.238976483.724.95897648TF-1.404-43.40481438.6850290738577.9243444295530.25727295043695172114128WETL
2023-03-14 20:00:07FORECAST2023174-11131.06422.3726.717178.049291142690.188976481.228976483.85.02897648TF-0.936-48.93681438.8538371438278.1376146187050.27489554704757172114128WETL
2023-03-14 16:00:07FORECAST2023174-11132.46821.8327.149170.494967261640.082677210.292677213.643.93267721TF0.468-46.53281435.7725952579274.2970343620170.33106420308047172112124DRYL
2023-03-14 12:00:06FORECAST2023174-11131.04621.77626.411171.905908526650.062992160.482992163.614.09299216TF-0.954-53.95481436.3525860579875.0115877442480.27420692340178172112124WETL
2023-03-14 08:00:07FORECAST2023174-11128.81422.06425.439173.282920210550.267716680.677716683.54.17771668TF-3.186-59.18681436.9166288804775.7101893409570.195919320478171113124.5WETL
2023-03-14 04:00:18FORECAST2023174-11130.25421.93826.096172.837568534380.342519870.562519873.444.00251987TF-1.746-55.74681436.7344225406375.484115687190.24477604253904171113124.5WETL
2023-03-14 00:00:07FORECAST2023174-11122.15422.15422.154176.5149136802500.063.693.75TF-9.846-61.84681438.2327740962677.3546202914570.052435138397728171111121.5DRYL
2023-03-13 20:00:07FORECAST2023174-11123.73823.73823.738168.867706925510.007874020.147874023.713.85787402TF-8.262-57.26281435.1010968036973.4745244980150.075015610336998171112123DRYL
2023-03-13 16:00:06FORECAST2023174-11127.78827.78827.788169.130982663040.019685050.239685053.593.82968505TF-4.212-53.21281435.2099273543573.6074826781540.16501105742899171112123DRYL
2023-03-13 12:00:06FORECAST2023174-11129.0329.0329.03172.571703000530.015748040.085748043.623.70574804TF-2.97-46.9781436.6255509187375.349214895590.20284698509864171111121.5DRYL
2023-03-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023174-11129.0329.0329.03172.720373339130.015748040.075748043.723.79574804TF-2.97-46.9781436.6864403078675.4246450021080.20284698509864171111121.5DRYL
2023-03-13 04:00:13FORECAST2023174-11126.00626.00626.006171.526358171960.011811030.141811034.354.49181103TF-5.994-71.99481436.1967699013674.8192433875530.11925394655411171112123WETL