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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 7, 2021

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DAY 311 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/08/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 53.52°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 44.09°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 48.81°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.146 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 98 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 656 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.36 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.56 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.04 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.60 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 218 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.36 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 26 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 2 D₂: 5 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 60.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-08 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	311	26	53.52008	44.09006	48.80507	0.36000000000001	0.56000000000001	0.04	0.60000000000001	F	F	21.52008	655.52008	218	449.36216721666	0.14620920189676	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	311	26	45.44	45.44	45.44	0.0028	0.2028	0.04	0.2428	F	F	13.44	647.44	219	449.92553989522	0.030045046312676	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	311	26	56.02	44.37	50.195	0.1615	0.3615	0.04	0.4015	F	F	24.02	658.02	219	449.92553989522	0.21260899671358	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	311	26	53.57	45.32	49.445	0.1704	0.3704	0.04	0.4104	F	F	21.57	655.57	219	449.92553989522	0.14738174773874	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-07 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	311	26	49.83	45.32	47.575	0.1779	0.3779	0.04	0.4179	F	F	17.83	651.83	219	449.92553989522	0.076323786659135	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	311	26	54.01	45.83	49.92	0.1889	0.1889	0.04	0.2289	F	F	22.01	648.01	218	449.36216721666	0.1579880056323	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	311	26	53.58	45.16	49.37	0.2292	0.2992	0.04	0.3392	F	F	21.58	652.58	218	449.36216721666	0.14761738611791	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	311	26	53.47	46.49	49.98	0.2976	0.3676	0.04	0.4076	F	F	21.47	652.47	218	449.36216721666	0.14503919233396	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-06 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.21	46.72	50.965	0.2643	0.3343	0.04	0.3743	F	F	23.21	654.21	218	449.36216721666	0.1893895561926	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-06 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.8	46.73	51.265	0.1956	0.3356	0.04	0.3756	F	F	23.8	656.8	218	449.36216721666	0.2061438044231	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-06 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.63	46.91	51.27	0.2069	0.3869	0.04	0.4269	F	F	23.63	656.63	218	449.36216721666	0.20122859994783	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	54.35	45.75	50.05	0.1481	0.3881	0.04	0.4281	F	F	22.35	643.35	218	449.36216721666	0.16651785061635	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	311	26	54.4	46.8	50.6	0.1381	0.4081	0.04	0.4481	F	F	22.4	658.4	218	449.36216721666	0.16779679771991	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	54.05	45.53	49.79	0.1926	0.5226	0.04	0.5626	F	F	22.05	657.05	218	449.36216721666	0.15897639761311	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-05 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	53.75	45.03	49.39	0.1947	0.5247	0.04	0.5647	F	F	21.75	656.75	218	449.36216721666	0.15166173819667	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-05 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	54.32	46.26	50.29	0.1286	0.3386	0.04	0.3786	F	F	22.32	656.32	218	449.36216721666	0.16575350329802	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	311	26	54.11	46.24	50.175	0.1301	0.3301	0.04	0.3701	F	F	22.11	653.11	218	449.36216721666	0.160466546486	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-05 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	54.96	46.71	50.835	0.1012	0.3012	0.04	0.3412	F	F	22.96	641.96	218	449.36216721666	0.18255004923966	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-04 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.01	46.49	50.75	0.1302	0.3602	0.04	0.4002	F	F	23.01	655.01	218	449.36216721666	0.18390549322608	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.54	47.26	51.4	0.123	0.353	0.04	0.393	F	F	23.54	656.54	218	449.36216721666	0.19865506927251	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	58.73	48.11	53.42	0.0567	0.2767	0.04	0.3167	F	F	26.73	659.73	218	449.36216721666	0.30131572532266	98	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-04 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	57.88	48.2	53.04	0.1077	0.3677	0.04	0.4077	F	F	25.88	654.88	218	449.36216721666	0.27178409487641	98	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	311	26	57.77	47.76	52.765	0.1122	0.3722	0.04	0.4122	F	F	25.77	655.77	218	449.36216721666	0.26807013079875	98	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	58.75	47.13	52.94	0.0371	0.2171	0.04	0.2571	F	F	26.75	638.75	218	449.36216721666	0.30202764933329	98	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-03 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	311	26	59.16	46.65	52.905	0.0356	0.2256	0.1	0.3256	F	F	27.16	656.16	218	449.36216721666	0.31678502956971	98	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-03 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	59.16	46.33	52.745	0.0369	0.2569	0.1	0.3569	F	F	27.16	656.16	218	449.36216721666	0.31678502956971	98	2	2	5	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2021-08-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.51	45.33	50.42	0.1052	0.3252	0.1	0.4252	F	F	23.51	653.51	218	449.36216721666	0.19780164676192	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	53.32	43.76	48.54	0.1299	0.4299	0.09	0.5199	F	F	21.32	645.32	218	449.36216721666	0.14157245690002	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-03 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	311	26	53.33	43.73	48.53	0.1299	0.4799	0.11	0.5899	F	F	21.33	642.33	218	449.36216721666	0.14180181598889	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-08-03 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	311	26	56.04	42.55	49.295	0.0221	0.5621	0.06	0.6221	F	F	24.04	637.04	218	449.36216721666	0.21320254465501	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.69	40.95	48.32	0.0117	0.6117	0.06	0.6717	F	F	23.69	647.69	218	449.36216721666	0.20295531614768	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.66	40.95	48.305	0.0117	0.6217	0.06	0.6817	F	F	23.66	646.66	218	449.36216721666	0.20209085674799	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	49.21	40.86	45.035	0.1662	0.8462	0.09	0.9362	F	F	17.21	644.21	218	449.36216721666	0.067625033807726	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	48.29	40.25	44.27	0.1588	0.8888	0.11	0.9988	F	F	16.29	641.29	218	449.36216721666	0.056150029196302	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	311	26	48.27	40.19	44.23	0.1588	0.8888	0.13	1.0188	F	F	16.27	642.27	218	449.36216721666	0.055918732301894	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-02 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	52.64	41.95	47.295	0.1155	0.8355	0.14	0.9755	F	F	20.64	631.64	218	449.36216721666	0.12656205609741	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	311	26	51.34	41.86	46.6	0.0446	0.6646	0.13	0.7946	F	F	19.34	642.34	218	449.36216721666	0.10102479111389	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	51.28	41.91	46.595	0.0446	0.6746	0.17	0.8446	F	F	19.28	643.28	218	449.36216721666	0.099943894182927	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	52.66	44.9	48.78	0.1812	0.7212	0.11	0.8312	F	F	20.66	643.66	218	449.36216721666	0.12698712717132	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	311	26	53.08	45.28	49.18	0.1892	0.6392	0.12	0.7592	F	F	21.08	636.08	218	449.36216721666	0.13614298003306	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 04:00:11	FORECAST	2021	311	26	53.07	43.66	48.365	0.1892	0.6392	0.15	0.7892	F	F	21.07	640.07	218	449.36216721666	0.13591987825974	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-08-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.75	46.75	51.25	0.1513	0.3413	0.09	0.4313	F	F	23.75	646.75	218	449.36216721666	0.20469083276253	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-07-31 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.93	48.19	52.06	0.2975	0.5175	0.12	0.6375	F	F	23.93	651.93	218	449.36216721666	0.20994997687892	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-07-31 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	54.7	48.14	51.42	0.2799	0.4999	0.18	0.6799	F	F	22.7	653.7	218	449.36216721666	0.17560249927537	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-07-31 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	311	26	55.53	51.09	53.31	0.0074	0.4274	0.34	0.7674	F	F	23.53	651.53	218	449.36216721666	0.19837034920575	98	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-07-31 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	311	26	49.57	49.1	49.335	0.1071	0.5571	0.41	0.9671	F	F	17.57	635.57	218	449.36216721666	0.072577879037824	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2021-07-31 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	311	26	49.58	49.16	49.37	0.0626	0.5126	0.41	0.9226	F	F	17.58	639.58	218	449.36216721666	0.072719308448148	98	1	2	5	3	5	2	60	DRY	H