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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 8, 2021

[ Saturday, August 7, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, August 9, 2021 ]

DAY 312 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/09/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.025
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 647

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.62 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 219
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-09 04:00:07OBSERVATION20213122743.5099235.1539.3299600.0600000000000590.620000000000060.040.66000000000006FF11.50992646.50992219449.92553989522 00.02523480316131796 12535260DRYH
2021-08-09 00:00:03FORECAST20213122743.4743.4743.47000.560.040.6FF11.47646.47220450.4867758200100.0250117854869559612535260DRYH
2021-08-08 12:00:02FORECAST20213122752.7340.1846.45500.01650.57650.040.6165FF20.73655.73220450.4867758200100.14001878038459612535260DRYH
2021-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20213122748.4335.7542.0900.02730.58730.040.6273FF16.43651.43220450.4867758200100.0683517936362969612535260DRYH
2021-08-08 04:00:07FORECAST20213122752.6236.6344.62500.06020.62020.040.6602FF20.62655.62220450.4867758200100.137710649720219612535260DRYH
2021-08-08 00:00:05FORECAST20213122752.9639.2546.10500.08470.28470.040.3247FF20.96646.96219449.9255398952200.144929163259739612525240DRYM
2021-08-07 20:00:02FORECAST20213122752.7540.9546.8500.0950.4550.040.495FF20.75657.75219449.9255398952200.140441240340419612525240DRYM
2021-08-07 16:00:03FORECAST20213122753.2640.0646.6600.07690.43690.040.4769FF21.26658.26219449.9255398952200.151505820919169612525240DRYM
2021-08-07 12:00:05FORECAST20213122753.4341.147.26500.06350.42350.040.4635FF21.43658.43219449.9255398952200.1553190959619612525240DRYM
2021-08-07 08:00:06FORECAST20213122753.6241.5347.57500.04530.41530.040.4553FF21.62656.62219449.9255398952200.159655114564559612525240DRYM
2021-08-07 04:00:07FORECAST20213122753.6241.5347.57500.04530.42530.040.4653FF21.62652.62219449.9255398952200.159655114564559612525240DRYM
2021-08-07 00:00:04FORECAST20213122754.6141.2747.9400.04070.23070.040.2707FF22.61649.61219449.9255398952200.183512285737029612525240DRYM
2021-08-06 20:00:06FORECAST20213122754.3839.5346.95500.03810.33810.040.3781FF22.38654.38219449.9255398952200.177781028193449612525240DRYM
2021-08-06 16:00:06FORECAST20213122753.9639.4846.7200.03590.40590.040.4459FF21.96652.96219449.9255398952200.167609580508639612525240DRYM
2021-08-06 12:00:05FORECAST20213122753.5740.5447.05500.04210.37210.040.4121FF21.57654.57219449.9255398952200.158506470033769612525240DRYM
2021-08-06 08:00:06FORECAST20213122753.540.7447.1200.04640.38640.040.4264FF21.5657.5219449.9255398952200.156907472227499612525240DRYM
2021-08-06 04:00:07FORECAST20213122753.3940.0246.70500.0460.4360.040.476FF21.39657.39219449.9255398952200.154416220764989612525240DRYM
2021-08-06 00:00:06FORECAST20213122755.1942.2148.700.04230.43230.040.4723FF23.19645.19219449.9255398952200.198467761973569612525240DRYM
2021-08-05 20:00:05FORECAST20213122755.8442.3849.1100.06650.46650.050.5165FF23.84660.84219449.9255398952200.21607230531799612525240DRYM
2021-08-05 16:00:06FORECAST20213122755.6842.3148.99500.05050.56050.050.6105FF23.68659.68219449.9255398952200.211657124973719612535260DRYH
2021-08-05 12:00:06FORECAST20213122756.0142.5449.27500.04990.55990.050.6099FF24.01660.01219449.9255398952200.22082125926829612535260DRYH
2021-08-05 08:00:06FORECAST20213122751.6243.4247.5200.05520.38520.050.4352FF19.62654.62219449.9255398952200.11791436377079612525240DRYM
2021-08-05 04:00:09FORECAST20213122755.6543.4749.5600.05460.37460.050.4246FF23.65655.65219449.9255398952200.210835185756069612525240DRYM
2021-08-05 00:00:06FORECAST20213122752.9542.1847.56500.07430.36430.050.4143FF20.95641.95219449.9255398952200.144713293611629612525240DRYM
2021-08-04 20:00:06FORECAST20213122753.2642.5747.91500.06470.41470.050.4647FF21.26655.26219449.9255398952200.151505820919169612525240DRYM
2021-08-04 16:00:06FORECAST20213122753.2642.5847.9200.07120.41120.050.4612FF21.26657.26219449.9255398952200.151505820919169612525240DRYM
2021-08-04 12:00:06FORECAST20213122755.7743.9849.87500.01980.28980.050.3398FF23.77662.77219449.9255398952200.214134146422019612525240DRYM
2021-08-04 08:00:06FORECAST20213122749.7944.5247.15500.03440.39440.050.4444FF17.79651.79219449.9255398952200.0870610298347149612525240DRYM
2021-08-04 04:00:08FORECAST20213122749.7244.547.1100.03440.38440.060.4444FF17.72652.72219449.9255398952200.0860133651578479612525240DRYM
2021-08-04 00:00:06FORECAST20213122758.6744.8751.7700.02650.23650.050.2865FF26.67644.67219449.9255398952200.302413924143919622525245DRYM
2021-08-03 20:00:05FORECAST20213122758.5346.6252.57500.02490.24490.110.3549FF26.53661.53219449.9255398952200.297803015044219622525245DRYM
2021-08-03 16:00:06FORECAST20213122758.5346.6452.58500.02490.27490.110.3849FF26.53661.53219449.9255398952200.297803015044219622525245DRYM
2021-08-03 12:00:06FORECAST20213122754.645.45000.07690.40690.10.5069FF22.6655.6219449.9255398952200.183260736483029612525240DRYM
2021-08-03 08:00:06FORECAST20213122755.445.6150.50500.06410.49410.090.5841FF23.4647.4219449.9255398952200.204058679295279612535260DRYH
2021-08-03 04:00:07FORECAST20213122754.9545.6150.2800.06410.53410.120.6541FF22.95643.95219449.9255398952200.192192350747139612535260DRYH
2021-08-03 00:00:05FORECAST20213122759.8944.3552.12000.550.070.62FF27.89643.89219449.9255398952200.343868924955249622535267.5DRYH
2021-08-02 20:00:06FORECAST20213122758.8143.8551.3300.10510.70510.070.7751FF26.81653.81219449.9255398952200.307056548798799622535267.5DRYH
2021-08-02 16:00:06FORECAST20213122758.6143.8551.2300.10510.70510.080.7851FF26.61652.61219449.9255398952200.300433902160459622535267.5DRYH
2021-08-02 12:00:06FORECAST20213122761.5245.5253.5200.00570.82570.120.9457FF29.52652.52219449.9255398952200.402238253330149622535267.5DRYH
2021-08-02 08:00:06FORECAST20213122760.1645.6852.9200.00880.88880.121.0088FF28.16648.16219449.9255398952200.353326017243679622535267.5DRYH
2021-08-02 04:00:07FORECAST20213122760.1845.7152.94500.00880.88880.141.0288FF28.18649.18219449.9255398952200.3540302438869622535267.5DRYH
2021-08-02 00:00:06FORECAST20213122761.7646.153.9300.00250.77250.210.9825FF29.76640.76219449.9255398952200.411056193293369622535267.5DRYH
2021-08-01 20:00:05FORECAST20213122762.545.0853.7900.00150.59150.20.7915FF30.5651.5219449.9255398952200.438509998873039622535267.5DRYH
2021-08-01 16:00:06FORECAST20213122761.2245.0853.1500.00150.59150.250.8415FF29.22651.22219449.9255398952200.391285882804289622535267.5DRYH
2021-08-01 12:00:06FORECAST20213122752.2146.5449.37500.00130.68130.150.8313FF20.21643.21219449.9255398952200.129336510047299612535260DRYH
2021-08-01 08:00:06FORECAST20213122747.554646.77500.00220.60220.160.7622FF15.55630.55219449.9255398952200.0580030424298119612535260DRYH
2021-08-01 04:00:11FORECAST20213122747.5647.1947.37500.00160.60160.190.7916FF15.56634.56219449.9255398952200.0581133249454329612535260DRYH