Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 13, 2021

[ Saturday, June 12, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, June 14, 2021 ]

DAY 256 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/14/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.52°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.51°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.01°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.384 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 335 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.66 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.19 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.72 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.91 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 100 in SWE DAY: 163 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.04 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 45.78 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -29 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-14 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	256	-29	48.52004	43.50992	46.01498	100.38225142857	0.65999999999997	1.19	2.72	3.91	T	F	16.52004	334.52004	163	456.03601117968	45.777921534721	0.38403556349687	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-14 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	256	-28	43.8	43.8	43.8	100.93549333333	0.0266	0.5566	2.72	3.2766	F	F	11.8	329.8	164	456.77252796558	46.10456045132	0.22328023436771	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	256	-28	55.19	47.99	51.59	100.64935066667	0.4516	0.9816	2.72	3.7016	T	F	23.19	341.19	164	456.66991890022	45.963530806307	0.64204245435114	88	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-13 08:00:01	FORECAST	2021	256	-28	56.51	46.11	51.31	100.24968266667	0.467	0.997	2.72	3.717	T	F	24.51	342.51	164	456.52647543785	45.766634291576	0.68945634042567	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-13 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-28	53.11	47.35	50.23	99.855937916667	0.5883	1.1183	2.72	3.8383	T	F	21.11	339.11	164	456.38501540069	45.572753763948	0.56295746991706	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-13 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	58.3	47.05	52.675	100.47286933333	0.7697	1.1397	2.72	3.8597	T	F	26.3	336.3	163	456.0686601824	45.822526901535	0.74893266321618	88	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2021-06-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	57.52	46.42	51.97	101.574768	0.7303	1.1803	2.72	3.9003	T	F	25.52	347.52	163	456.46506595008	46.365333173984	0.72377068108616	88	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2021-06-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	57.43	48.22	52.825	101.52414666667	0.8169	1.2669	2.72	3.9869	T	F	25.43	347.43	163	456.44687933355	46.340379923002	0.7207897850694	88	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2021-06-12 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	56.56	48.44	52.5	100.06115733333	1.0123	1.4623	2.72	4.1823	T	F	24.56	346.56	163	455.92026269467	45.619909136946	0.69119797926685	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-12 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	55.54	48.48	52.01	99.977353333333	1.1809	1.6309	2.72	4.3509	T	F	23.54	340.54	163	455.89003736431	45.578679346718	0.65486742274473	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-12 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	55.67	48.51	52.09	99.456925583333	1.0833	1.5533	2.72	4.2733	T	F	23.67	345.67	163	455.70219218632	45.322739016436	0.65958699961631	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-12 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	54.75	47.95	51.35	106.550516	1.2561	1.3561	2.72	4.0761	T	F	22.75	343.75	163	458.24132900448	48.825850057954	0.62569104482802	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-11 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	56.66	48.72	52.69	107.51416266667	1.4984	2.0484	2.72	4.7684	T	F	24.66	353.66	163	458.58274829088	49.304140195873	0.69466836893944	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-11 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	54.43	47.74	51.085	107.53417066667	1.3039	1.9639	2.72	4.6839	T	F	22.43	351.43	163	458.58982825829	49.314076857924	0.61365354240182	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-11 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	54.27	46.97	50.62	106.85340666667	1.1201	1.8201	2.72	4.5401	T	F	22.27	351.27	163	458.34873300619	48.976123563062	0.6075927111452	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-11 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	54.2	46.97	50.585	106.94491866667	1.1853	1.7253	2.72	4.4453	T	F	22.2	347.2	163	458.38116660009	49.021536580379	0.60493277508836	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	54.58	47.08	50.83	106.90981508333	1.3045	1.8745	2.72	4.5945	T	F	22.58	349.58	163	458.36872611356	49.004115748784	0.61931053521666	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-11 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	56.63	46.07	51.35	99.642612	0.878	1.678	2.71	4.388	T	F	24.63	347.63	163	455.76924304456	45.414037846222	0.69362906697874	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	56.44	47.26	51.85	100.70072266667	0.7586	1.6686	2.73	4.3986	T	F	24.44	354.44	163	456.15072096249	45.934707245843	0.68701090731483	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-10 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	56.36	45.84	51.1	100.68175333333	0.6191	1.4291	2.73	4.1591	T	F	24.36	353.36	163	456.14389101907	45.925366720088	0.6842060318169	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-10 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	55.77	45.66	50.715	100.05970133333	0.5478	1.3078	2.73	4.0378	T	F	23.77	352.77	163	455.91973761855	45.619192778084	0.66320056894956	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-10 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	52.97	45.16	49.065	100.221296	0.5931	1.3931	2.73	4.1231	T	F	20.97	344.97	163	455.97800152357	45.698706260182	0.55750377026237	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-10 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	59.11	44.87	51.99	100.36227716667	0.4935	1.3035	2.75	4.0535	T	F	27.11	355.11	163	456.02881358079	45.768090184581	0.77372166089697	88	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2021-06-10 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	56.6	46.73	51.665	100.737004	0.9067	1.6267	2.73	4.3567	T	F	24.6	346.6	163	456.16378320682	45.952572853561	0.69258820633255	88	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-06-09 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	60.81	46.43	53.62	101.38516933333	0.3794	0.8794	2.79	3.6694	T	F	28.81	365.81	163	456.39693722437	46.271880763708	0.82098963574623	88	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	61.09	46.41	53.75	101.675668	0.4186	1.0886	2.78	3.8686	T	F	29.09	364.09	163	456.50130909908	46.415075545524	0.82813377400855	88	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2021-06-09 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	58.62	47.18	52.9	100.85687066667	0.4883	0.9683	2.78	3.7483	T	F	26.62	361.62	163	456.2069298358	46.011603319686	0.75889378542617	88	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	56.65	46.06	51.355	100.955708	0.5737	1.0837	2.78	3.8637	T	F	24.65	359.65	163	456.24249696673	46.060284300964	0.69432210855776	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	52.63	46.06	49.345	101.50040716667	0.574	1.054	2.78	3.834	T	F	20.63	356.63	163	456.43834968944	46.32867833996	0.54421564838865	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-09 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	55.68	45.81	50.745	103.29343866667	0.8302	1.3602	2.81	4.1702	T	F	23.68	341.68	163	457.08114363558	47.213483075812	0.65994902301008	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-08 19:58:55	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	50.98	45.83	48.405	104.29906933333	0.8267	1.3067	2.96	4.2667	T	F	18.98	354.98	163	457.44037851452	47.710605754553	0.47929719019785	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-06-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	50.97	45.11	48.04	104.282232	0.8322	1.2522	2.97	4.2222	T	F	18.97	353.97	163	457.43437137379	47.702277240375	0.47890367850747	88	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-06-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	52.1	45.34	48.72	103.77640133333	0.4432	0.8632	2.95	3.8132	T	F	20.1	355.1	163	457.25378375892	47.452152174551	0.52340832733004	88	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-08 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	52.17	45.36	48.765	103.93056133333	0.4432	1.0532	2.97	4.0232	T	F	20.17	348.17	163	457.30884531066	47.528364995835	0.52616136479342	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-06-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	56.75	45.36	51.055	103.81228941667	0.3892	1.0092	2.98	3.9892	T	F	24.75	352.75	163	457.26660388334	47.469893022914	0.6977768553163	88	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	65.13	48.29	56.71	98.927264	0.1788	0.7488	2.64	3.3888	T	F	33.13	355.13	163	455.51075898505	45.062433108955	0.91090637374289	88	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-07 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	65.13	48.34	56.735	98.807981333333	0.1788	0.7588	2.7	3.4588	T	F	33.13	371.13	163	455.46761164537	45.003835269394	0.91090637374289	88	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-07 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	67.19	47.81	57.5	98.616648	0.1329	0.7429	2.71	3.4529	T	F	35.19	372.19	163	455.39837458095	44.909861205821	0.93946998430633	88	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-07 11:58:54	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	65.23	45.09	55.16	98.771241905763	0.0195	0.3795	2.75	3.1295	F	F	33.23	365.23	163	455.45431949877	44.985788768237	0.9124909616404	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-07 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	65.29	45.06	55.175	98.939299039711	0.0195	0.2895	2.82	3.1095	F	F	33.29	357.29	163	455.51511161536	45.068345845219	0.91343159832192	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-07 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	67.96	46.22	57.09	98.868191482784	0.2107	0.5207	2.86	3.3807	F	F	35.96	370.96	163	455.48939270329	45.033412496166	0.94809321258791	88	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2021-06-07 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	60.14	45.47	52.805	100.789012	0.574	1.244	2.7	3.944	T	F	28.14	362.14	163	456.18250536979	45.978184007906	0.80315145768686	88	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2021-06-06 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	60.14	45.43	52.785	100.40906601802	0.5442	1.2542	3.19	4.4442	T	F	28.14	377.14	163	456.04567307317	45.791120094834	0.80315145768686	88	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2021-06-06 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	60.69	43.33	52.01	101.88503516651	0.5633	1.3133	3.19	4.5033	T	F	28.69	377.69	163	456.5764838865	46.518311116978	0.81787160934591	88	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2021-06-06 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	49.02	44.07	46.545	103.25214179852	0.2013	0.6313	3.06	3.6913	T	F	17.02	371.02	163	457.06637180138	47.19308183257	0.40302868712877	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-06 07:59:06	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	44.83	44.13	44.48	103.41964911808	0.1937	0.6237	3.04	3.6637	T	F	12.83	363.83	163	457.12627934154	47.275839412157	0.25481884436047	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	256	-29	45.62	45.04	45.33	104.27399259692	0.0983	0.5283	3.01	3.5383	T	F	13.62	358.62	163	457.43143166657	47.698201719199	0.28049891577889	88	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L