Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 12, 2021

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DAY 255 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/13/2021 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.41°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.19°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.30°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.574 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 23 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 337 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.18 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.54 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.78 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.32 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 102 in SWE DAY: 162 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.01 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 46.42 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -30 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-13 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2021	255	-30	55.41008	37.18994	46.30001	101.80261791667	0.18000000000006	0.54000000000006	2.78	3.3200000000001	F	F	23.41008	337.41008	162	456.00873249301	46.42288276065	0.57431606903297	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	255	-29	47.47	47.47	47.47	102.91543066667	0.0238	0.3838	2.78	3.1638	F	F	15.47	329.47	163	456.94587284469	47.026781295167	0.28937157838822	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	255	-29	58.71	44.67	51.69	102.51640133333	0.1029	0.4629	2.78	3.2429	F	F	26.71	340.71	163	456.80293855078	46.829793378717	0.69005260968136	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	255	-29	54.24	39.95	47.095	102.4051	0.1006	0.4606	2.78	3.2406	F	F	22.24	336.24	163	456.76304401253	46.774865198407	0.53106339247262	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-12 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	255	-29	59.08	40.74	49.91	101.88882691667	0.1239	0.4839	2.78	3.2639	F	F	27.08	341.08	163	456.57784497314	46.520181020453	0.70215387399105	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-12 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	59.57	37.66	48.615	108.906704	0.1021	0.1121	2.78	2.8921	F	F	27.57	339.57	162	458.54611069765	49.9387455481	0.71783968981588	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-06-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	59.3	39.29	49.295	110.003956	0.1738	0.5638	2.78	3.3438	F	F	27.3	348.3	162	458.93395207346	50.484550270795	0.70924560443546	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	59.3	39.69	49.495	109.89664533333	0.2782	0.6682	2.78	3.4482	T	F	27.3	348.3	162	458.89606906114	50.431138546473	0.70924560443546	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-11 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	59.1	41.09	50.095	109.12754	0.3201	0.7101	2.78	3.4901	T	F	27.1	348.1	162	458.6242556419	50.048536802532	0.70280182299851	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-11 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	58.02	39.87	48.945	109.24583866667	0.2003	0.5503	2.78	3.3303	F	F	26.02	344.02	162	458.66609873764	50.107362624562	0.66693499910895	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	57.68	39.99	48.835	109.20548708333	0.1914	0.5814	2.78	3.3614	F	F	25.68	345.68	162	458.65182750305	50.087296224131	0.65529891018106	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-11 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	56.79	39.64	48.215	101.93063066667	0.3266	0.7966	2.78	3.5766	T	F	24.79	341.79	162	456.0548612772	46.485959628585	0.62416159463314	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	55.63	39.89	47.76	103.07790266667	0.4595	0.9295	2.78	3.7095	T	F	23.63	348.63	162	456.46760638909	47.051723501861	0.58236254864189	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-10 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	55.73	40.11	47.92	103.00481333333	0.3845	0.8345	2.78	3.6145	T	F	23.73	347.73	162	456.44134746535	47.015655793283	0.58601020948425	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-10 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	55.32	40.11	47.715	102.37942666667	0.3366	0.7766	2.78	3.5566	T	F	23.32	348.32	162	456.21646435908	46.707180056976	0.57101104779512	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-10 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	55.31	39.55	47.43	102.422176	0.3683	0.8183	2.78	3.5983	T	F	23.31	343.31	162	456.23184799066	46.728258631705	0.57064383773579	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-10 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	55.41	39.57	47.49	102.7454705	0.3676	0.8476	2.78	3.6276	T	F	23.41	347.41	162	456.34813359641	46.88770369816	0.57431313612437	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-10 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	57.4	39.43	48.415	103.08242266667	0.168	0.758	2.76	3.518	T	F	25.4	341.4	162	456.46923013679	47.053954115289	0.64560413297658	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-09 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	59.5	39.03	49.265	103.994956	0.0899	0.5499	2.81	3.3599	F	F	27.5	355.5	162	456.79666366314	47.504548938595	0.71562335892253	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	58.88	39.14	49.01	104.137472	0.1803	0.7103	2.81	3.5203	T	F	26.88	353.88	162	456.84773250638	47.574967952147	0.69563929987289	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-09 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	58.93	38.83	48.88	103.32047866667	0.0567	0.5167	2.81	3.3267	F	F	26.93	353.93	162	456.55472213341	47.171452428351	0.69727387979359	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-09 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	58.23	38.98	48.605	103.29587866667	0.0891	0.5391	2.82	3.3591	F	F	26.23	354.23	162	456.54589003914	47.159308863248	0.67404344357377	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	58.99	38.16	48.575	103.73621916667	0.0822	0.5122	2.82	3.3322	F	F	26.99	354.99	162	456.70390126389	47.376735995782	0.69923017220353	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	55.68	38.01	46.845	105.61797466667	0.1308	0.5708	2.84	3.4108	F	F	23.68	336.68	162	457.37716020794	48.307249319954	0.58418728556798	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-08 19:58:55	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	55.69	37.81	46.75	106.46119066667	0.1104	0.5104	3	3.5104	T	F	23.69	354.69	162	457.6778055481	48.724924120358	0.58455201660972	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	55.6	38.03	46.815	106.44435333333	0.0666	0.4466	3.01	3.4566	F	F	23.6	353.6	162	457.67180856158	48.716579701235	0.58126685209357	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	55.53	38.24	46.885	105.84017733333	0.0502	0.4502	2.99	3.4402	F	F	23.53	353.53	162	457.45644818729	48.417271598419	0.57870778834584	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-08 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	53.59	38.46	46.025	106.01609466667	0.0433	0.6533	3	3.6533	T	F	21.59	346.59	162	457.5191885651	48.504397606734	0.50684266301971	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	53.61	38.51	46.06	106.27802941667	0.0428	0.6528	3.02	3.6728	T	F	21.61	346.61	162	457.61255485907	48.634160566749	0.50758875159683	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	56.38	38.79	47.585	101.85668666667	0.0876	0.6076	2.67	3.2776	F	F	24.38	341.38	162	456.028217739	46.449523285399	0.60952611792174	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	56.43	37.22	46.825	101.736584	0.0671	0.6071	2.74	3.3471	F	F	24.43	357.43	162	455.98493162127	46.390349298622	0.61131972766645	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-07 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	56.13	37.17	46.65	101.67453733333	0.125	0.635	2.75	3.385	F	F	24.13	356.13	162	455.96256425215	46.359782761658	0.60052379836229	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-07 11:58:54	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	58.19	38.55	48.37	101.58138190576	0.0236	0.4036	2.78	3.1836	F	F	26.19	351.19	162	455.92897578256	46.313895410871	0.67269421824294	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-07 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	58.23	38.56	48.395	101.74506570638	0.0236	0.3136	2.85	3.1636	F	F	26.23	343.23	162	455.98798894047	46.394527896067	0.67404344357377	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-07 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	58.14	39.66	48.9	101.79591948278	0.0531	0.3531	2.89	3.2431	F	F	26.14	354.14	162	456.00631833132	46.419582464496	0.67100451251725	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-07 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	59.62	39.99	49.805	103.18614533333	0.2146	0.6946	2.75	3.4446	T	F	27.62	352.62	162	456.50648595351	47.105144605209	0.71941768121624	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-06 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	59.72	39.97	49.845	102.42315001802	0.2146	0.7546	3.22	3.9746	T	F	27.72	367.72	162	456.23219847805	46.728738907766	0.72256080826026	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-06-06 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	58.65	39.9	49.275	103.26651649985	0.2522	0.7922	3.22	4.0122	T	F	26.65	367.65	162	456.5353474701	47.144814992284	0.68807023026351	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-06-06 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	54.36	40.67	47.515	104.11461779852	0.1757	0.4557	3.1	3.5557	T	F	22.36	373.36	162	456.83954423089	47.563674542848	0.53552503242708	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-06 07:59:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	54.39	40.7	47.545	104.03131445142	0.1757	0.4557	3.08	3.5357	T	F	22.39	370.39	162	456.8096940204	47.522512923091	0.53663976693649	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	54.65	41.54	48.095	104.63856459692	0.2137	0.4637	3.05	3.5137	T	F	22.65	363.65	162	457.02714613299	47.822664553182	0.54628782228818	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	52.55	39.92	46.235	106.61186738785	0.1436	0.5336	2.34	2.8736	F	F	20.55	354.55	162	457.73146096004	48.79960581512	0.46807419245087	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-05 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	54.69	40.02	47.355	105.62638398555	0.1457	0.5857	2.52	3.1057	F	F	22.69	363.69	162	457.38016169736	48.31141258682	0.54776986133626	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-05 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	53.1	40.04	46.57	106.03815465219	0.1393	0.5793	2.56	3.1393	F	F	21.1	362.1	162	457.52705421335	48.515324532238	0.48856240255581	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-05 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	50.16	42.79	46.475	105.85934086701	0.0507	0.1307	2.62	2.7507	F	F	18.16	360.16	162	457.46328416354	48.426761732408	0.38070346854448	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-06-05 08:00:42	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	42.37	40.44	41.405	106.34151151232	0.0531	0.1931	2.7	2.8931	F	F	10.37	353.37	162	457.63517361762	48.665616083699	0.1509494457233	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-06-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	255	-30	42.4	40.45	41.425	105.65281527093	0.0485	0.1885	2.67	2.8585	F	F	10.4	360.4	162	457.38959524536	48.324498413302	0.15160787879532	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L