Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 1, 2021
[
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 |
Index |
Today |
Thursday, December 2, 2021 ]
DAY 62
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/02/2021 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.00°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.827
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 99
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.36 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.18 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 17 in
SWE DAY: 31
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 308.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.33 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 142
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-12-02 07:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 43.95992 | 36.05 | 40.00496 | 17.262889130435 | 0 | 0.36 | 10.82 | 11.18 | T | T | 11.95992 | 98.95992 | 31 | 308.56304198313 | 5.3266895835045 | 0.82705993053074 | 93 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-02 03:00:12 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 43.95992 | 36.05 | 40.00496 | 17.262889130435 | 0 | 0.36 | 10.82 | 11.18 | T | T | 11.95992 | 98.95992 | 31 | 308.56304198313 | 5.3266895835045 | 0.82705993053074 | 93 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-01 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.14 | 37.79 | 42.465 | 19.280368 | 0.0208 | 0.3808 | 10.82 | 11.2008 | T | T | 15.14 | 102.14 | 31 | 310.04192679637 | 5.9777224440631 | 0.90049764565085 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | M |
| 2021-12-01 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 46.12 | 37.89 | 42.005 | 18.5965425 | 0.0319 | 0.3919 | 10.82 | 11.2119 | T | T | 14.12 | 101.12 | 31 | 309.54150681352 | 5.7564017869717 | 0.87994739132707 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | M |
| 2021-12-01 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 42.4 | 38.08 | 40.24 | 18.5265145 | 0.0531 | 0.4131 | 10.82 | 11.2331 | T | T | 10.4 | 97.4 | 31 | 309.49021160355 | 5.7337748928812 | 0.78085062432425 | 93 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | M |
| 2021-11-30 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 46.41 | 38.25 | 42.33 | 15.732772 | 0.0959 | 0.4259 | 10.82 | 11.2459 | T | T | 14.41 | 100.41 | 31 | 307.43634658465 | 4.8368259453293 | 0.88607184926666 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.09 | 37.95 | 42.52 | 15.728508 | 0.0978 | 0.4278 | 10.82 | 11.2478 | T | T | 15.09 | 101.09 | 31 | 307.43320068359 | 4.8354655564175 | 0.89955416866489 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 46.94 | 37.97 | 42.455 | 15.72982 | 0.0601 | 0.3901 | 10.82 | 11.2101 | T | T | 14.94 | 100.94 | 31 | 307.43416865678 | 4.8358841348207 | 0.89668473337 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.41 | 38.26 | 42.835 | 15.053374666667 | 0.0213 | 0.3513 | 10.82 | 11.1713 | T | T | 15.41 | 101.41 | 31 | 306.93466965677 | 4.6204025805329 | 0.90548102993072 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 10:16:42 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.41 | 38.26 | 42.835 | 15.053374666667 | 0.0213 | 0.3513 | 10.82 | 11.1713 | T | T | 15.41 | 101.41 | 31 | 306.93466965677 | 4.6204025805329 | 0.90548102993072 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.24 | 38.5 | 42.87 | 28.990512916667 | 0.0208 | 0.5308 | 10.82 | 11.3508 | T | T | 15.24 | 101.24 | 31 | 317.05475468667 | 9.1915799610346 | 0.902365200464 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-30 03:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.76 | 38.49 | 43.125 | 28.893916916667 | 0.013 | 0.483 | 10.82 | 11.303 | T | T | 15.76 | 100.76 | 31 | 316.98583977337 | 9.1589625181715 | 0.91166476697767 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.85 | 38.71 | 43.28 | 19.664093333333 | 0.008 | 0.388 | 10.82 | 11.208 | T | T | 15.85 | 99.85 | 31 | 310.32235453813 | 6.1022077430575 | 0.91320518829417 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.64 | 39.1 | 43.87 | 19.689076 | 0.007 | 0.407 | 10.82 | 11.227 | T | T | 16.64 | 102.64 | 31 | 310.34060247855 | 6.110319708086 | 0.92587821984603 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.52 | 39.2 | 43.86 | 19.768561333333 | 0.004 | 0.324 | 10.82 | 11.144 | T | T | 16.52 | 102.52 | 31 | 310.39865277498 | 6.1361348051663 | 0.92404953987804 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.25 | 39.35 | 43.8 | 19.518078666667 | 0.0038 | 0.2938 | 10.82 | 11.1138 | T | T | 16.25 | 102.25 | 31 | 310.21567875027 | 6.0548140214812 | 0.91981009233783 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 07:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.89 | 38.65 | 43.27 | 18.9687975 | 0.0163 | 0.4463 | 10.82 | 11.2663 | T | T | 15.89 | 101.89 | 31 | 309.81402889747 | 5.8767995768152 | 0.91388336286405 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.94 | 38.62 | 43.28 | 18.886906833333 | 0.0161 | 0.6261 | 10.82 | 11.4461 | T | T | 15.94 | 98.94 | 31 | 309.75410012236 | 5.850296830254 | 0.9147255154714 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.08 | 38.82 | 43.45 | 20.442365333333 | 0.005 | 0.865 | 11.17 | 12.035 | T | T | 16.08 | 98.08 | 31 | 310.89027963133 | 6.3553326748057 | 0.91705081487721 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 49.4 | 38.29 | 43.845 | 20.27596 | 0.0222 | 0.7722 | 11.17 | 11.9422 | T | T | 17.4 | 100.4 | 31 | 310.76894372224 | 6.3011386721543 | 0.93669067504773 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 49.1 | 38.47 | 43.785 | 20.062486666667 | 0.0043 | 0.6643 | 11.17 | 11.8343 | T | T | 17.1 | 102.1 | 31 | 310.61321265346 | 6.2316734373506 | 0.93257872794886 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.97 | 38.05 | 43.01 | 19.951513333333 | 0.0073 | 0.7673 | 11.17 | 11.9373 | T | T | 15.97 | 98.97 | 31 | 310.5322230617 | 6.1955877888452 | 0.91522784672145 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.01 | 38.25 | 42.63 | 20.138524583333 | 0.0077 | 1.0877 | 11.07 | 12.1577 | T | T | 15.01 | 99.01 | 31 | 310.66869280521 | 6.2564091073298 | 0.89803110036426 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 46.72 | 38.22 | 42.47 | 20.128465916667 | 0.0077 | 1.0477 | 11.11 | 12.1577 | T | T | 14.72 | 96.72 | 31 | 310.66135423497 | 6.2531364803441 | 0.89236964452498 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.67 | 38.22 | 43.445 | 23.492477333333 | 0.0005 | 1.0005 | 10.02 | 11.0205 | T | T | 16.67 | 100.67 | 31 | 313.10523456204 | 7.3556176258966 | 0.92633010959113 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 49.25 | 37.71 | 43.48 | 23.403917333333 | 0 | 1.39 | 10.12 | 11.51 | T | T | 17.25 | 101.25 | 31 | 313.04116493827 | 7.3263895461457 | 0.93465970470373 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 50.93 | 38.8 | 44.865 | 23.335474666667 | 0 | 0.92 | 10.06 | 10.98 | T | T | 18.93 | 102.93 | 31 | 312.99163952787 | 7.3038084750811 | 0.95471268915963 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 49.74 | 37.38 | 43.56 | 23.008896 | 0.1356 | 1.0056 | 9.97 | 10.9756 | T | T | 17.74 | 100.74 | 31 | 312.75520719905 | 7.1961520359013 | 0.94111267935135 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 43.23 | 37.84 | 40.535 | 22.494586916667 | 0.1643 | 0.9743 | 9.77 | 10.7443 | T | T | 11.23 | 98.23 | 31 | 312.38246629315 | 7.0269145392739 | 0.80626315051233 | 93 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 43.25 | 37.86 | 40.555 | 22.940680253147 | 0.1643 | 1.1043 | 9.7 | 10.8043 | T | T | 11.25 | 98.25 | 31 | 312.70579645141 | 7.1736836896975 | 0.80685251139806 | 93 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.57 | 36.94 | 42.755 | 26.50542123621 | 0.145 | 0.635 | 8.9 | 9.535 | T | T | 16.57 | 103.57 | 31 | 315.27641553082 | 8.3565341994867 | 0.9248156076057 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.3 | 34.98 | 41.64 | 27.259447235961 | 0.1467 | 0.8767 | 9.13 | 10.0067 | T | T | 16.3 | 101.3 | 31 | 315.81718556541 | 8.6090019061301 | 0.92060833801087 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.36 | 36.15 | 42.255 | 26.682393173251 | 0.1467 | 0.7867 | 9.01 | 9.7967 | T | T | 16.36 | 107.36 | 31 | 315.40342874763 | 8.4157182940356 | 0.92155830343553 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.37 | 34.31 | 40.84 | 27.025470095722 | 0.4051 | 0.9851 | 9.12 | 10.1051 | T | T | 15.37 | 104.37 | 31 | 315.64949337766 | 8.5305759440076 | 0.90475455037739 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.45 | 34.32 | 40.885 | 26.202279163498 | 0.4051 | 0.9451 | 9.88 | 10.8251 | T | T | 15.45 | 107.45 | 31 | 315.05871697777 | 8.2552564551448 | 0.90620342954385 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 47.73 | 34.77 | 41.25 | 27.396092298841 | 0.4097 | 1.0597 | 10.02 | 11.0797 | T | T | 15.73 | 104.73 | 31 | 315.91507344579 | 8.654838510716 | 0.91114680720109 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 49.12 | 36.13 | 42.625 | 28.659630764886 | 0.2644 | 0.8944 | 10.45 | 11.3444 | T | T | 17.12 | 114.12 | 31 | 316.81862170782 | 9.0799047175862 | 0.93285910506113 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.77 | 36.93 | 42.85 | 28.20954584736 | 0.2829 | 0.7729 | 10.31 | 11.0829 | T | T | 16.77 | 111.77 | 31 | 316.49710131728 | 8.9282394901662 | 0.92782125641687 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.8 | 35.46 | 42.13 | 27.487729037133 | 0.2829 | 0.7829 | 10.24 | 11.0229 | T | T | 16.8 | 111.8 | 31 | 315.98069986243 | 8.6855918587821 | 0.92826407447503 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 48.26 | 34.35 | 41.305 | 27.066421722103 | 2.4696 | 3.3896 | 10.27 | 13.6596 | T | T | 16.26 | 117.26 | 31 | 315.67885073872 | 8.5442969028431 | 0.91997022323002 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 49.69 | 36.88 | 43.285 | 27.602073704787 | 2.5037 | 3.5537 | 9.26 | 12.8137 | T | T | 17.69 | 103.69 | 31 | 316.06256733369 | 8.7239822788687 | 0.94047796546302 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 49.76 | 36.86 | 43.31 | 27.834950150782 | 2.5037 | 3.5537 | 9.04 | 12.5937 | T | T | 17.76 | 98.76 | 31 | 316.22922661999 | 8.8022247591878 | 0.94136507797012 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 49.93 | 41.92 | 45.925 | 21.780481846507 | 3.7304 | 5.6304 | 9.26 | 14.8904 | T | T | 17.93 | 120.93 | 31 | 311.86411696045 | 6.7925507380338 | 0.94347643090033 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 45.61 | 42.08 | 43.845 | 22.108701455737 | 2.8751 | 4.8951 | 9.51 | 14.4051 | T | T | 13.61 | 122.61 | 31 | 312.10247935574 | 6.9001805396716 | 0.86862317314136 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 43.94 | 40.4 | 42.17 | 22.610730037767 | 2.1674 | 4.1874 | 9.2 | 13.3874 | T | T | 11.94 | 118.94 | 31 | 312.46668255012 | 7.0650998049375 | 0.82651191889427 | 93 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 46.57 | 41.71 | 44.14 | 23.341979694867 | 1.5674 | 4.8774 | 8.76 | 13.6374 | T | T | 14.57 | 115.57 | 31 | 312.99634696476 | 7.3059543754189 | 0.88935426223627 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 42.05 | 41.72 | 41.885 | 24.161169107452 | 1.1694 | 4.4794 | 8.5 | 12.9794 | T | T | 10.05 | 106.05 | 31 | 313.58854139213 | 7.5766657787347 | 0.76958604062745 | 93 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 62 | 142 | 45.03 | 44.35 | 44.69 | 23.36568180726 | 0.4335 | 4.0135 | 8.33 | 12.3435 | T | T | 13.03 | 114.03 | 31 | 313.01349860721 | 7.3137738098334 | 0.85487583901091 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |