Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 30, 2021
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Monday, November 29, 2021 |
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Wednesday, December 1, 2021 ]
DAY 61
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/01/2021 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.07°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.806
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 99
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.71 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.55 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.26 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 20 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 311.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.07 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 141
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 24.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-12-01 07:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.26998 | 32.86004 | 38.06501 | 19.511115833333 | 0.35000000000002 | 0.71000000000002 | 11.55 | 12.26 | T | T | 11.26998 | 99.26998 | 32 | 311.30173610221 | 6.073844232208 | 0.80639132071441 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-01 03:00:06 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.26998 | 32.86004 | 38.06501 | 19.511115833333 | 0.35000000000002 | 0.71000000000002 | 11.55 | 12.26 | T | T | 11.26998 | 99.26998 | 32 | 311.30173610221 | 6.073844232208 | 0.80639132071441 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-30 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 42.46 | 39.42 | 40.94 | 16.310489333333 | 0.3176 | 0.6776 | 11.55 | 12.2276 | T | T | 10.46 | 98.46 | 32 | 308.96231295393 | 5.039326509837 | 0.7818894548301 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | M |
| 2021-11-30 10:16:42 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 42.46 | 39.42 | 40.94 | 16.310489333333 | 0.3176 | 0.6776 | 11.55 | 12.2276 | T | T | 10.46 | 98.46 | 32 | 308.96231295393 | 5.039326509837 | 0.7818894548301 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-30 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 42.1 | 37.04 | 39.57 | 30.24801025 | 0.4974 | 0.8574 | 11.55 | 12.4074 | T | T | 10.1 | 98.1 | 32 | 319.0121454555 | 9.6494826456125 | 0.7704510979953 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-30 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 41.47 | 37.32 | 39.395 | 30.14993825 | 0.4567 | 0.8167 | 11.55 | 12.3667 | T | T | 9.47 | 97.47 | 32 | 318.94266503421 | 9.6161016560718 | 0.74964968587342 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 41.6 | 36.75 | 39.175 | 21.01108 | 0.3434 | 0.7334 | 11.55 | 12.2834 | T | T | 9.6 | 95.6 | 32 | 312.39157199638 | 6.5636843105416 | 0.75402212443544 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 44.17 | 36.84 | 40.505 | 21.087613333333 | 0.3647 | 0.7547 | 11.55 | 12.3047 | T | T | 12.17 | 98.17 | 32 | 312.44706791784 | 6.5887629553851 | 0.83155919385013 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 44.04 | 35.74 | 39.89 | 21.123310666667 | 0.2844 | 0.6744 | 11.55 | 12.2244 | T | T | 12.04 | 98.04 | 32 | 312.47294911199 | 6.6004631790221 | 0.82805956597414 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.89 | 37.17 | 40.53 | 20.811710666667 | 0.2526 | 0.6426 | 11.55 | 12.1926 | T | T | 11.89 | 97.89 | 32 | 312.24695445506 | 6.4983932726666 | 0.82396442346742 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 07:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 44.21 | 35.89 | 40.05 | 20.317916166667 | 0.3422 | 0.7822 | 11.55 | 12.3322 | T | T | 12.21 | 98.21 | 32 | 311.88845276573 | 6.3369234366454 | 0.83262674518945 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 40.89 | 36.94 | 38.915 | 20.133142833333 | 0.3986 | 0.9586 | 11.55 | 12.5086 | T | T | 8.89 | 94.89 | 32 | 311.75418910193 | 6.2765916180792 | 0.72965151751441 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 40.6 | 35.57 | 38.085 | 21.738457333333 | 0.3566 | 1.5566 | 11.55 | 13.1066 | T | T | 8.6 | 93.6 | 32 | 312.91857281122 | 6.8023670438642 | 0.71936169029048 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 40.47 | 35.51 | 37.99 | 21.651646666667 | 0.4493 | 1.4493 | 11.55 | 12.9993 | T | T | 8.47 | 95.47 | 32 | 312.85572773652 | 6.773841674594 | 0.7146883619455 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 42.72 | 36.39 | 39.555 | 21.443585333333 | 0.2968 | 1.3568 | 11.55 | 12.9068 | T | T | 10.72 | 96.72 | 32 | 312.70504892896 | 6.7055174008722 | 0.78994248577373 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 40.89 | 34.5 | 37.695 | 21.232244 | 0.242 | 1.462 | 11.55 | 13.012 | T | T | 8.89 | 94.89 | 32 | 312.55191318817 | 6.636178483478 | 0.72965151751441 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.1 | 34.49 | 38.795 | 21.335997916667 | 0.4489 | 1.6789 | 11.55 | 13.2289 | T | T | 11.1 | 96.1 | 32 | 312.62710247355 | 6.6702112070691 | 0.8013932409802 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 39.91 | 34.39 | 37.15 | 21.268812583333 | 0.4498 | 1.6798 | 11.55 | 13.2298 | T | T | 7.91 | 93.91 | 32 | 312.57841628653 | 6.6481717535934 | 0.69414530444598 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 40.38 | 35.59 | 37.985 | 24.703125333333 | 0.3554 | 1.7454 | 10.35 | 12.0954 | T | T | 8.38 | 96.38 | 32 | 315.05649645889 | 7.782880119105 | 0.71143143884599 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 39.54 | 35.74 | 37.64 | 24.611066666667 | 0.4427 | 2.2427 | 10.35 | 12.5927 | T | T | 7.54 | 95.54 | 32 | 314.99035170855 | 7.752248545256 | 0.68022358029441 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 39.12 | 34.67 | 36.895 | 24.653925333333 | 0.1855 | 1.7055 | 10.35 | 12.0555 | T | T | 7.12 | 96.12 | 32 | 315.02114786327 | 7.766507857842 | 0.66410830088564 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 38.54 | 34.08 | 36.31 | 24.176630666667 | 0.1467 | 1.5667 | 10.35 | 11.9167 | T | T | 6.54 | 94.54 | 32 | 314.67799781872 | 7.6078537321894 | 0.6413542834125 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 41.93 | 36.01 | 38.97 | 23.512370916667 | 0.1433 | 1.3233 | 10.34 | 11.6633 | T | T | 9.93 | 98.93 | 32 | 314.19973670642 | 7.3875807513603 | 0.76493516788405 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 41.95 | 34.67 | 38.31 | 23.960814919813 | 0.1723 | 1.2823 | 10.44 | 11.7223 | T | T | 9.95 | 98.95 | 32 | 314.52270088737 | 7.536220224042 | 0.76558787111256 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.15 | 34.16 | 38.655 | 27.576723902876 | 0.0109 | 0.8709 | 9.6 | 10.4709 | T | T | 11.15 | 99.15 | 32 | 317.11343844401 | 8.7449497378623 | 0.80287143790076 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 38.77 | 33.59 | 36.18 | 28.159096569295 | 0.0107 | 1.1207 | 9.82 | 10.9407 | T | T | 6.77 | 96.77 | 32 | 317.52847834242 | 8.9413150851454 | 0.65044299575375 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.34 | 34.01 | 38.675 | 27.643378506584 | 0.0149 | 1.1549 | 9.58 | 10.7349 | T | T | 11.34 | 103.34 | 32 | 317.16097234124 | 8.7674008059451 | 0.80842772604249 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.87 | 34.69 | 39.28 | 27.950458024549 | 0.015 | 1.045 | 9.73 | 10.775 | T | T | 11.87 | 100.87 | 32 | 317.379858348 | 8.8709124085929 | 0.82341378723968 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.89 | 34.72 | 39.305 | 27.13473126114 | 0.015 | 1.535 | 9.96 | 11.495 | T | T | 11.89 | 103.89 | 32 | 316.79803322149 | 8.596229495523 | 0.82396442346742 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 44.86 | 35.37 | 40.115 | 28.424818355371 | 0.0248 | 1.3648 | 10.39 | 11.7548 | T | T | 12.86 | 100.86 | 32 | 317.71764658387 | 9.0310663924426 | 0.84936299735837 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 44.53 | 35.67 | 40.1 | 29.784233431553 | 0.052 | 1.422 | 10.74 | 12.162 | T | T | 12.53 | 108.53 | 32 | 318.68342390406 | 9.4917414883252 | 0.84101014276242 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 44.8 | 36.23 | 40.515 | 29.34491784736 | 0.0575 | 1.1975 | 10.68 | 11.8775 | T | T | 12.8 | 106.8 | 32 | 318.3716829557 | 9.3425908812606 | 0.84786638476963 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 44.78 | 34.74 | 39.76 | 28.5336117038 | 0.0575 | 1.0175 | 10.8 | 11.8175 | T | T | 12.78 | 106.78 | 32 | 317.7950601074 | 9.0678408464902 | 0.84736533311461 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 45.56 | 34.9 | 40.23 | 27.72487407183 | 0.8501 | 1.5301 | 10.74 | 12.2701 | T | T | 13.56 | 112.56 | 32 | 317.21907895083 | 8.7948590170934 | 0.86610020087458 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 39.1 | 34.08 | 36.59 | 28.82234303812 | 0.9423 | 1.3923 | 10 | 11.3923 | T | T | 7.1 | 98.1 | 32 | 318.00040748514 | 9.1655168307989 | 0.66333303060131 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 39.13 | 34.11 | 36.62 | 29.060522150782 | 0.9423 | 1.3123 | 9.86 | 11.1723 | T | T | 7.13 | 93.13 | 32 | 318.1696885155 | 9.2461772808123 | 0.66449567475087 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 45.64 | 36.26 | 40.95 | 23.323065846507 | 1.6527 | 2.2027 | 10.04 | 12.2427 | T | T | 13.64 | 114.64 | 32 | 314.06329092355 | 7.3249188141805 | 0.86792852779558 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 46.29 | 37.41 | 41.85 | 23.282832122404 | 1.6872 | 2.3072 | 10.3 | 12.6072 | T | T | 14.29 | 121.29 | 32 | 314.03428312945 | 7.3116074947824 | 0.88214785196267 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 46.31 | 37.34 | 41.825 | 23.408590037767 | 1.6872 | 2.3072 | 9.99 | 12.2972 | T | T | 14.31 | 119.31 | 32 | 314.12494248566 | 7.3532219992841 | 0.88256754435959 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 42.08 | 35.94 | 39.01 | 23.9815250282 | 2.8658 | 3.3358 | 9.81 | 13.1458 | T | T | 10.08 | 113.08 | 32 | 314.53760718273 | 7.5430914989629 | 0.76980594635508 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 42.08 | 35.97 | 39.025 | 24.594457107452 | 2.8658 | 3.3458 | 9.54 | 12.8858 | T | T | 10.08 | 108.08 | 32 | 314.97841598521 | 7.7467231417216 | 0.76980594635508 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 45.3 | 35.93 | 40.615 | 23.574891140594 | 2.9209 | 3.6209 | 9.37 | 12.9909 | T | T | 13.3 | 113.3 | 32 | 314.24478511958 | 7.4082866006934 | 0.8600387324581 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-23 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 42.04 | 33.68 | 37.86 | 16.862481685444 | 2.0206 | 2.2106 | 8.96 | 11.1706 | T | T | 10.04 | 111.04 | 32 | 309.36713723298 | 5.2166976856694 | 0.76851261061946 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-23 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.43 | 35.75 | 39.59 | 16.536675687704 | 1.5302 | 1.6402 | 9.35 | 10.9902 | T | T | 11.43 | 114.43 | 32 | 309.12826383453 | 5.1119538449346 | 0.81102590223196 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-23 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 43.89 | 35.81 | 39.85 | 16.769036452737 | 1.0347 | 1.1447 | 9.12 | 10.2647 | T | T | 11.89 | 113.89 | 32 | 309.29864557294 | 5.1866402623949 | 0.82396442346742 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-23 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 39.76 | 37.38 | 38.57 | 17.212011537876 | 1.1165 | 1.1965 | 9.11 | 10.3065 | T | T | 7.76 | 110.76 | 32 | 309.62318471226 | 5.3292378276613 | 0.68853358341002 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-23 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 38.82 | 38.04 | 38.43 | 18.549985575408 | 0.272 | 0.292 | 9.59 | 9.882 | T | T | 6.82 | 107.82 | 32 | 310.60121738337 | 5.7616481021656 | 0.65240766209546 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-23 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 61 | 141 | 38.61 | 38.15 | 38.38 | 19.321315082725 | 0.0215 | 0.0415 | 9.86 | 9.9015 | T | T | 6.61 | 113.61 | 32 | 311.1635355154 | 6.0120887119477 | 0.64412917628278 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |