Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 9, 2021
[
Monday, November 8, 2021 |
Index |
Today |
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 ]
DAY 40
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/10/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.34°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.85°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.242
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 81
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.38 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.80 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 53
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.82 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 120
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-10 07:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 32.34002 | 25.35008 | 28.84505 | 29.347767391304 | 1.3800000000001 | 2.2000000000001 | 11.6 | 13.8 | T | T | 0.34002 | 81.34002 | 53 | 339.81309666451 | 9.972755717429 | 0.24239048480496 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 03:00:03 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 32.34002 | 25.35008 | 28.84505 | 29.347767391304 | 1.3800000000001 | 2.2000000000001 | 11.6 | 13.8 | T | T | 0.34002 | 81.34002 | 53 | 339.81309666451 | 9.972755717429 | 0.24239048480496 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 27.02 | 25.24 | 26.13 | 32.705754867019 | 0.8969 | 1.7169 | 11.6 | 13.3169 | T | T | -4.98 | 76.02 | 53 | 342.00503312345 | 11.185532776622 | 0.10032967581523 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 34.35 | 25.15 | 29.75 | 31.94735666427 | 0.8819 | 1.7019 | 11.6 | 13.3019 | T | T | 2.35 | 83.35 | 53 | 341.51161951821 | 10.910393513741 | 0.31587721142979 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 32.79 | 25.27 | 29.03 | 32.173038099815 | 1.2555 | 2.0755 | 11.6 | 13.6755 | T | T | 0.79 | 81.79 | 53 | 341.65854713078 | 10.992193453966 | 0.25800166511868 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 33.22 | 24.71 | 28.965 | 36.824349102017 | 1.3494 | 2.1794 | 11.6 | 13.7794 | T | T | 1.22 | 86.22 | 53 | 344.66805553299 | 12.69217680126 | 0.27339205819339 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 33.09 | 25.49 | 29.29 | 36.768447740593 | 1.3568 | 2.1868 | 11.6 | 13.7868 | T | T | 1.09 | 86.09 | 53 | 344.63209671361 | 12.671587237746 | 0.26869166727838 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 32.24 | 25.52 | 28.88 | 36.675990489624 | 1.4542 | 2.2842 | 11.6 | 13.8842 | T | T | 0.24 | 85.24 | 53 | 344.57261193574 | 12.63754183834 | 0.23899123685577 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 32.79 | 25.75 | 29.27 | 36.50174290029 | 1.4841 | 2.3141 | 11.6 | 13.9141 | T | T | 0.79 | 85.79 | 53 | 344.4604672364 | 12.573407414377 | 0.25800166511868 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 31.7 | 25.5 | 28.6 | 36.137792295801 | 1.6048 | 2.4448 | 11.6 | 14.0448 | T | T | -0.3 | 84.7 | 53 | 344.22607065422 | 12.439570244102 | 0.22109613227032 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 31.79 | 25.55 | 28.67 | 36.551783400501 | 1.5838 | 2.4538 | 11.6 | 14.0538 | T | T | -0.21 | 84.79 | 53 | 344.49267808143 | 12.591821752291 | 0.22402440075195 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 32.61 | 26.03 | 29.32 | 12.386658321043 | 1.1363 | 1.8963 | 11.6 | 13.4963 | T | T | 0.61 | 89.61 | 53 | 328.45141851628 | 4.068415496223 | 0.25169507144743 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.66 | 25.86 | 28.26 | 12.089804734499 | 1.1036 | 1.8236 | 11.6 | 13.4236 | T | T | -1.34 | 87.66 | 53 | 328.24817548684 | 3.9684563460915 | 0.18887884829227 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 31.46 | 26.74 | 29.1 | 13.427828130521 | 1.3534 | 2.1434 | 11.6 | 13.7434 | T | T | -0.54 | 88.46 | 53 | 329.16305310706 | 4.4199449040394 | 0.21339520381325 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 32.92 | 27.04 | 29.98 | 15.729612694272 | 1.3261 | 2.1461 | 11.6 | 13.7461 | T | T | 0.92 | 89.92 | 53 | 330.72964844154 | 5.2022492764981 | 0.26260680772415 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 31.9 | 25.25 | 28.575 | 16.926843437565 | 1.2478 | 2.2378 | 11.6 | 13.8378 | T | T | -0.1 | 86.9 | 53 | 331.54087034604 | 5.6119404055014 | 0.22763308070385 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 31.7 | 25.16 | 28.43 | 17.280673159475 | 1.2128 | 2.1928 | 11.6 | 13.7928 | T | T | -0.3 | 87.7 | 53 | 331.78014708065 | 5.7333842825033 | 0.22109613227032 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.78 | 24.9 | 27.84 | 16.17920763611 | 1.4072 | 2.6772 | 10.56 | 13.2372 | T | T | -1.22 | 83.78 | 53 | 331.03457513388 | 5.3558771258226 | 0.19244173747459 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.33 | 26.41 | 28.37 | 13.845644751988 | 1.3064 | 2.4464 | 11.03 | 13.4764 | T | T | -1.67 | 83.33 | 53 | 329.44810004524 | 4.5614213574438 | 0.17929188819286 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.32 | 24.97 | 27.645 | 14.282056628655 | 1.3344 | 2.6944 | 11.03 | 13.7244 | T | T | -1.68 | 83.32 | 53 | 329.74551039469 | 4.7094440525017 | 0.17900622258275 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.07 | 24.98 | 27.525 | 17.191120913512 | 1.2644 | 2.6744 | 11.03 | 13.7044 | T | T | -1.93 | 84.07 | 53 | 331.71960785417 | 5.7026318880041 | 0.17195762150361 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 32.13 | 24.27 | 28.2 | 18.001903599351 | 1.3751 | 2.7851 | 11.18 | 13.9651 | T | T | 0.13 | 90.13 | 53 | 332.26721250669 | 5.9814423287705 | 0.23528305798152 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.43 | 24.15 | 27.29 | 20.137869198112 | 1.5562 | 3.0462 | 11.27 | 14.3162 | T | T | -1.57 | 87.43 | 53 | 333.7044617292 | 6.7200968011289 | 0.18216425597299 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.66 | 25.39 | 28.025 | 16.041953325012 | 0.6194 | 2.1394 | 11.25 | 13.3894 | T | T | -1.34 | 78.66 | 53 | 330.94152270226 | 5.3089484604982 | 0.18887884829227 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.67 | 25.34 | 28.005 | 17.085124562255 | 0.6124 | 2.3124 | 11.4 | 13.7124 | T | T | -1.33 | 83.67 | 53 | 331.64793426437 | 5.6662462677214 | 0.18917419750724 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.68 | 25.34 | 28.01 | 15.899081968378 | 0.5138 | 1.9938 | 11.19 | 13.1838 | T | T | -1.32 | 82.68 | 53 | 330.84462769372 | 5.2601258544999 | 0.18946983030402 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 33.53 | 25.33 | 29.43 | 18.902049998608 | 1.0136 | 2.5136 | 11.26 | 13.7736 | T | T | 1.53 | 85.53 | 53 | 332.87385406718 | 6.2919982328074 | 0.28476220517918 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.14 | 25.64 | 27.89 | 22.256105486371 | 0.9349 | 2.6649 | 11.74 | 14.4049 | T | T | -1.86 | 85.14 | 53 | 335.12210121619 | 7.458512835482 | 0.17391317642136 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 30.14 | 25.6 | 27.87 | 22.569271602936 | 0.9349 | 2.6349 | 11.9 | 14.5349 | T | T | -1.86 | 83.14 | 53 | 335.33104266535 | 7.56817737881 | 0.17391317642136 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 28.57 | 23.81 | 26.19 | 22.652959974085 | 0.5729 | 2.0129 | 10.02 | 12.0329 | T | T | -3.43 | 71.57 | 53 | 335.38685061325 | 7.5975049027763 | 0.13343707422896 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 31.02 | 24.79 | 27.905 | 22.856725021821 | 1.0114 | 2.3314 | 10.92 | 13.2514 | T | T | -0.98 | 86.02 | 53 | 335.52268261061 | 7.6689496950146 | 0.19968946680338 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 31.1 | 24.73 | 27.915 | 22.982973291206 | 1.0114 | 2.2914 | 10.83 | 13.1214 | T | T | -0.9 | 83.1 | 53 | 335.60680581488 | 7.7132422543904 | 0.2021413311178 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 35.45 | 27.04 | 31.245 | 19.299653294863 | 0.2743 | 1.7043 | 10.83 | 12.5343 | T | T | 3.45 | 90.45 | 53 | 333.14137214335 | 6.4295129805414 | 0.35971828139823 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 36.09 | 25.98 | 31.035 | 19.668268245966 | 0.3041 | 1.7941 | 10.98 | 12.7741 | T | T | 4.09 | 85.09 | 53 | 333.38914486388 | 6.5571871314761 | 0.3861500058592 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 36.05 | 26.94 | 31.495 | 20.339325887585 | 0.3041 | 1.8041 | 11.12 | 12.9241 | T | T | 4.05 | 87.05 | 53 | 333.83961600165 | 6.790072744044 | 0.38448098901162 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 37.69 | 27.94 | 32.815 | 18.660373863785 | 1.0354 | 2.8754 | 11.28 | 14.1554 | T | T | 5.69 | 87.69 | 53 | 332.71111586705 | 6.208513810716 | 0.45431822285249 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 37.77 | 27.82 | 32.795 | 20.645990457575 | 1.0354 | 2.9454 | 11.32 | 14.2654 | T | T | 5.77 | 96.77 | 53 | 334.04521994476 | 6.896694423378 | 0.45777999372873 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 35.67 | 23.61 | 29.64 | 22.392455292088 | 1.1703 | 3.1003 | 11.31 | 14.4103 | T | T | 3.67 | 97.67 | 53 | 335.213092936 | 7.5062441968921 | 0.36873601961676 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 28.62 | 25 | 26.81 | 26.435340940511 | 1.0428 | 2.7728 | 11.37 | 14.1428 | T | T | -3.38 | 84.62 | 53 | 337.89680327808 | 8.9324171973649 | 0.13461717102183 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:49:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 28.71 | 25.11 | 26.91 | 27.099964034472 | 1.0428 | 2.7728 | 11.57 | 14.3428 | T | T | -3.29 | 89.71 | 53 | 338.33535549235 | 9.1688759654329 | 0.13675929857783 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 28.71 | 25.11 | 26.91 | 65.106319365018 | 1.0428 | 2.7928 | 11.66 | 14.4528 | T | T | -3.29 | 88.71 | 53 | 362.22125190251 | 23.582892507162 | 0.13675929857783 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 04:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 26.83 | 23.72 | 25.275 | 64.521072162049 | 1.0384 | 2.7184 | 11.7 | 14.4184 | T | T | -5.17 | 81.83 | 53 | 361.87064834266 | 23.348282215044 | 0.096723999757614 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 34.53 | 26.6 | 30.565 | 56.477816420242 | 1.0947 | 1.9947 | 10.85 | 12.8447 | T | T | 2.53 | 100.53 | 53 | 356.99900539775 | 20.162524289063 | 0.32289643948717 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 33.14 | 26.56 | 29.85 | 56.543275866255 | 0.9209 | 1.8009 | 10.84 | 12.6409 | T | T | 1.14 | 103.14 | 53 | 357.03905595207 | 20.188157835725 | 0.27049470132111 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 33.27 | 26.73 | 30 | 53.264265533517 | 0.5366 | 1.3566 | 10.78 | 12.1366 | T | T | 1.27 | 98.27 | 53 | 355.02462357736 | 18.910125821161 | 0.27521066727336 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 29.75 | 27.4 | 28.575 | 54.906698489116 | 0.4988 | 1.1088 | 11.38 | 12.4888 | T | T | -2.25 | 98.75 | 53 | 356.03573560935 | 19.548746786453 | 0.16319717070138 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 29.67 | 25.7 | 27.685 | 54.621361942977 | 0.4213 | 1.0213 | 11.3 | 12.3213 | T | T | -2.33 | 95.67 | 53 | 355.86037977889 | 19.437578605068 | 0.16105307280342 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 40 | 120 | 29.73 | 27.57 | 28.65 | 53.731623021284 | 0.2858 | 0.8958 | 11.32 | 12.2158 | T | T | -2.27 | 101.73 | 53 | 355.31276696718 | 19.09153164933 | 0.16265941956884 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |