Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 10, 2021
[
Tuesday, November 9, 2021 |
Index |
Today |
Thursday, November 11, 2021 ]
DAY 41
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/11/2021 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.86°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.255
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 78
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.75 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.00 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 35 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.20 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.94 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 121
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-11 07:00:13 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 31.96004 | 23.75006 | 27.85505 | 32.9625325 | 0.75 | 2.14 | 11.86 | 14 | T | T | -0.039960000000001 | 77.96004 | 52 | 341.19826172797 | 11.246758791152 | 0.2550493227184 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 03:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 31.96004 | 23.75006 | 27.85505 | 32.9625325 | 0.75 | 2.14 | 11.86 | 14 | T | T | -0.039960000000001 | 77.96004 | 52 | 341.19826172797 | 11.246758791152 | 0.2550493227184 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.67 | 28.98 | 32.325 | 28.845252326013 | 0.1735 | 1.5635 | 11.86 | 13.4235 | T | T | 3.67 | 81.67 | 52 | 338.49961628934 | 9.7641068441246 | 0.39914716475978 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.91 | 27.59 | 31.75 | 29.297052417583 | 0.1544 | 1.5444 | 11.86 | 13.4044 | T | T | 3.91 | 81.91 | 52 | 338.79712622709 | 9.9257571660014 | 0.40924878150278 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 03:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 34.39 | 26.38 | 30.385 | 29.581899867407 | 0.2674 | 1.6574 | 11.86 | 13.5174 | T | T | 2.39 | 80.39 | 52 | 338.9845226009 | 10.027806204181 | 0.34655591618874 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.5 | 24.57 | 30.035 | 29.515980917301 | 0.3559 | 1.2659 | 11.86 | 13.1259 | T | T | 3.5 | 76.5 | 52 | 338.94116768291 | 10.004181037416 | 0.39203206097407 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.17 | 26.86 | 31.015 | 29.590943762312 | 0.3338 | 1.2438 | 11.86 | 13.1038 | T | T | 3.17 | 76.17 | 52 | 338.99047020768 | 10.031047939875 | 0.37832489486832 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.37 | 26.61 | 30.99 | 29.824676554702 | 0.4402 | 1.3502 | 11.86 | 13.2102 | T | T | 3.37 | 76.37 | 52 | 339.14413433374 | 10.114864111928 | 0.38661521267319 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 34.93 | 27.09 | 31.01 | 33.446255888627 | 0.4438 | 1.3538 | 11.86 | 13.2138 | T | T | 2.93 | 75.93 | 52 | 341.5134665411 | 11.422346791346 | 0.36845023814985 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.84 | 27.01 | 31.425 | 32.503140844301 | 0.4385 | 1.3285 | 11.86 | 13.1885 | T | T | 3.84 | 83.84 | 52 | 340.89855324696 | 11.080273689804 | 0.40629592539552 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.78 | 27.17 | 31.475 | 33.137866631993 | 0.5462 | 1.8162 | 11.86 | 13.6762 | T | T | 3.78 | 82.78 | 52 | 341.31255805944 | 11.310370028798 | 0.40376913306308 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 36.25 | 27.2 | 31.725 | 37.699227132988 | 0.6159 | 1.9859 | 11.86 | 13.8459 | T | T | 4.25 | 87.25 | 52 | 344.26818831474 | 12.97864462594 | 0.42366160612266 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.47 | 27.34 | 31.405 | 37.915062544849 | 0.6068 | 1.9868 | 11.86 | 13.8468 | T | T | 3.47 | 86.47 | 52 | 344.40719673293 | 13.058220405025 | 0.39078011861953 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.55 | 27.33 | 31.44 | 37.612816473205 | 0.508 | 1.978 | 11.86 | 13.838 | T | T | 3.55 | 85.55 | 52 | 344.21251431505 | 12.946802128712 | 0.39412111096549 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.7 | 27.45 | 31.575 | 37.230610035992 | 0.4569 | 1.9569 | 11.86 | 13.8169 | T | T | 3.7 | 86.7 | 52 | 343.96611381629 | 12.80606824909 | 0.40040632990948 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.57 | 27.34 | 31.455 | 36.724550759583 | 0.3829 | 2.0129 | 11.86 | 13.8729 | T | T | 3.57 | 85.57 | 52 | 343.63949972724 | 12.620006250731 | 0.39495758810102 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.35 | 25.41 | 30.38 | 37.309918745031 | 0.3308 | 1.9708 | 11.86 | 13.8308 | T | T | 3.35 | 85.35 | 52 | 344.01726215284 | 12.83525609781 | 0.38578377896232 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 34.84 | 26.94 | 30.89 | 13.564941041155 | 0.3389 | 1.6189 | 11.67 | 13.2889 | T | T | 2.84 | 89.84 | 52 | 328.23384209186 | 4.4524727156877 | 0.36476912058763 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.08 | 28.56 | 31.82 | 13.272564873844 | 0.3709 | 1.5709 | 11.67 | 13.2409 | T | T | 3.08 | 88.08 | 52 | 328.03350405944 | 4.3538459634233 | 0.37461218720557 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 34.84 | 27.18 | 31.01 | 15.075021094719 | 0.4808 | 2.0008 | 11.67 | 13.6708 | T | T | 2.84 | 87.84 | 52 | 329.26619339605 | 4.9636948112234 | 0.36476912058763 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 33.48 | 27.83 | 30.655 | 17.801933266713 | 0.5829 | 2.1129 | 11.67 | 13.7829 | T | T | 1.48 | 88.48 | 52 | 331.12041809654 | 5.8945835862006 | 0.31082416726038 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 27.65 | 25.42 | 26.535 | 18.84037301031 | 0.4659 | 1.9859 | 11.77 | 13.7559 | T | T | -4.35 | 79.65 | 52 | 331.82315858438 | 6.2516720811891 | 0.12981814764734 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 31.89 | 24.56 | 28.225 | 19.441740611022 | 0.501 | 1.981 | 11.76 | 13.741 | T | T | -0.11 | 84.89 | 52 | 332.22927371931 | 6.4591153630389 | 0.25261109243016 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 32.21 | 22.7 | 27.455 | 18.693602067185 | 0.4971 | 2.2771 | 10.91 | 13.1871 | T | T | 0.21 | 81.21 | 52 | 331.72394712625 | 6.2011154637341 | 0.26385012005713 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 32.71 | 24.61 | 28.66 | 17.088171682731 | 0.6682 | 2.2982 | 11.3 | 13.5982 | T | T | 0.71 | 80.71 | 52 | 330.63632018235 | 5.6499702038225 | 0.2819067599465 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 32.69 | 25.57 | 29.13 | 17.989429049016 | 0.7411 | 2.4311 | 11.48 | 13.9111 | T | T | 0.69 | 80.69 | 52 | 331.24743876591 | 5.9589522973475 | 0.28117322599486 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 33.51 | 24.92 | 29.215 | 19.831158003599 | 0.5141 | 2.1741 | 11.49 | 13.6641 | T | T | 1.51 | 82.51 | 52 | 332.49192407735 | 6.5936998812988 | 0.31197646908604 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 31.83 | 23.3 | 27.565 | 18.970614823376 | 0.1795 | 1.9595 | 11.64 | 13.5995 | T | T | -0.17 | 86.83 | 52 | 331.91116602533 | 6.2965588862442 | 0.25053216597194 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 33.37 | 23.49 | 28.43 | 21.024136236041 | 0.1777 | 2.2077 | 11.74 | 13.9477 | T | T | 1.37 | 85.37 | 52 | 333.2949370177 | 7.007238162643 | 0.30661496433824 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 33.33 | 21.8 | 27.565 | 17.074932330047 | 0.1684 | 1.2584 | 11.75 | 13.0084 | T | T | 1.33 | 77.33 | 52 | 330.62733250001 | 5.6454393289017 | 0.30509060222642 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 33.34 | 23.5 | 28.42 | 18.132418141942 | 0.1684 | 1.3084 | 12.02 | 13.3284 | T | T | 1.34 | 82.34 | 52 | 331.34426733711 | 6.0080728042917 | 0.30547137755119 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 33.74 | 20.62 | 27.18 | 16.946844781384 | 0.1614 | 1.1614 | 11.63 | 12.7914 | T | T | 1.74 | 81.74 | 52 | 330.54036322934 | 5.60161622963 | 0.32087126716596 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.45 | 25.85 | 30.65 | 23.540178917715 | 1.0641 | 2.5141 | 11.77 | 14.2841 | T | T | 3.45 | 86.45 | 52 | 334.98056944025 | 7.8855025385816 | 0.38994611781981 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 32.74 | 26.39 | 29.565 | 26.118212701892 | 0.7335 | 2.2635 | 12.32 | 14.5835 | T | T | 0.74 | 82.74 | 52 | 336.6965954061 | 8.7939132948193 | 0.28300878456136 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 33.53 | 26.35 | 29.94 | 26.404811838328 | 0.7335 | 2.3635 | 12.35 | 14.7135 | T | T | 1.53 | 81.53 | 52 | 336.88667231562 | 8.8954291933346 | 0.31274569390984 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 30.23 | 25.31 | 27.77 | 27.208477284339 | 0.9502 | 1.9802 | 10.45 | 12.4302 | T | T | -1.77 | 67.23 | 52 | 337.41893804777 | 9.1806555111785 | 0.19857727394192 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.69 | 27.13 | 31.41 | 25.351199197331 | 1.143 | 2.363 | 11.48 | 13.843 | T | T | 3.69 | 86.69 | 52 | 336.18721917172 | 8.522749160819 | 0.39998649249515 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 35.66 | 27.08 | 31.37 | 25.552325271948 | 1.143 | 2.393 | 11.32 | 13.713 | T | T | 3.66 | 83.66 | 52 | 336.32088367816 | 8.5937806154932 | 0.39872767536483 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 31.01 | 28.38 | 29.695 | 21.790086207016 | 0.9299 | 1.5399 | 11.37 | 12.9099 | T | T | -0.99 | 86.01 | 52 | 333.80922914488 | 7.2737318797644 | 0.22304982295534 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 31.57 | 26.14 | 28.855 | 23.304779149249 | 0.7406 | 1.4406 | 11.52 | 12.9606 | T | T | -0.43 | 81.57 | 52 | 334.82331885404 | 7.802983499912 | 0.24162909422749 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 33.08 | 26.12 | 29.6 | 24.036972209404 | 0.7406 | 1.4406 | 11.67 | 13.1106 | T | T | 1.08 | 85.08 | 52 | 335.31212639563 | 8.0598882636479 | 0.29564054481619 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 38.37 | 28.61 | 33.49 | 23.817453187623 | 1.4521 | 3.4821 | 11.58 | 15.0621 | T | T | 6.37 | 91.37 | 52 | 335.16567226541 | 7.9827927092796 | 0.51508218707099 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 38.44 | 29.18 | 33.81 | 23.163542032049 | 1.1562 | 3.1362 | 11.74 | 14.8762 | T | T | 6.44 | 100.44 | 52 | 334.72892519576 | 7.7535075281144 | 0.51811385786494 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 37.31 | 24.73 | 31.02 | 24.69830768438 | 0.6666 | 2.9666 | 11.56 | 14.5266 | T | T | 5.31 | 100.31 | 52 | 335.75284916801 | 8.2925271746588 | 0.46916849480545 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 28.99 | 27.43 | 28.21 | 30.410781819885 | 0.6054 | 2.5054 | 11.69 | 14.1954 | T | T | -3.01 | 78.99 | 52 | 339.52905950735 | 10.325344150189 | 0.16316797086781 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:49:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 29.1 | 27.49 | 28.295 | 29.779355007215 | 0.375 | 2.275 | 11.89 | 14.165 | T | T | -2.9 | 84.1 | 52 | 339.1143454899 | 10.098606482383 | 0.16613278980533 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 29.11 | 27.5 | 28.305 | 67.239868866722 | 0.2797 | 2.1597 | 12.02 | 14.1797 | T | T | -2.89 | 83.11 | 52 | 362.60255784808 | 24.381348440442 | 0.16640402955379 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 04:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 41 | 121 | 25.39 | 24.59 | 24.99 | 65.57985973822 | 0.1006 | 1.9306 | 12.04 | 13.9706 | T | T | -6.61 | 72.39 | 52 | 361.60834972914 | 23.714224855406 | 0.084844243849498 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |