Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 23, 2021
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021 ]
DAY 54
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2021 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.44°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.213
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 60
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.67 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 20.02 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 28 in
SWE DAY: 39
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 325.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.26 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 134
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 24.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-24 07:00:12 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.40008 | 23.46998 | 26.43503 | 28.485050869565 | 1.0600000000001 | 1.3500000000001 | 18.67 | 20.02 | T | T | -2.59992 | 60.40008 | 39 | 325.11398423293 | 9.2608883792821 | 0.21324509309254 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-24 03:00:03 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.40008 | 23.46998 | 26.43503 | 28.485050869565 | 1.0600000000001 | 1.3500000000001 | 18.67 | 20.02 | T | T | -2.59992 | 60.40008 | 39 | 325.11398423293 | 9.2608883792821 | 0.21324509309254 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-23 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 26.19 | 23.26 | 24.725 | 21.838355695026 | 0.1895 | 0.4795 | 18.67 | 19.1495 | T | T | -5.81 | 57.19 | 39 | 320.46955071992 | 6.998528038047 | 0.12200846006511 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-23 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 26.7 | 23.35 | 25.025 | 22.692041055588 | 0.4874 | 0.7774 | 18.67 | 19.4474 | T | T | -5.3 | 57.7 | 39 | 321.07046829675 | 7.2857442483266 | 0.13431365425761 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-23 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 28.14 | 23.77 | 25.955 | 23.324477735805 | 0.6888 | 0.9788 | 18.67 | 19.6488 | T | T | -3.86 | 59.14 | 39 | 321.51480727158 | 7.4991649639376 | 0.17352408950406 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-22 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.69 | 23.82 | 26.755 | 24.999760550411 | 0.7848 | 1.0548 | 18.67 | 19.7248 | T | T | -2.31 | 61.69 | 39 | 322.68838792331 | 8.0671324304809 | 0.22308126795941 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-22 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 30.03 | 23.52 | 26.775 | 24.342709483972 | 0.6871 | 0.9571 | 18.67 | 19.6271 | T | T | -1.97 | 62.03 | 39 | 322.22870111076 | 7.843919658537 | 0.23493833462641 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-22 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.23 | 23.73 | 26.48 | 24.893579829282 | 0.8018 | 1.0718 | 18.67 | 19.7418 | T | T | -2.77 | 61.23 | 39 | 322.61415360802 | 8.0310211868974 | 0.20759419839665 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-22 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.76 | 23.73 | 26.745 | 25.017349126171 | 0.7731 | 1.0431 | 18.67 | 19.7131 | T | T | -2.24 | 61.76 | 39 | 322.70068272261 | 8.0731156429253 | 0.2254942487758 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-22 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.18 | 23.44 | 26.31 | 24.703138338001 | 0.7047 | 1.0347 | 18.67 | 19.7047 | T | T | -2.82 | 61.18 | 39 | 322.48095974458 | 7.9662917599417 | 0.20594990207468 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-22 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.08 | 23.48 | 26.28 | 24.73072407653 | 0.6976 | 1.0176 | 18.67 | 19.6876 | T | T | -2.92 | 56.08 | 39 | 322.5002570681 | 7.9756648721611 | 0.20268453100288 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-21 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.39 | 23.55 | 26.47 | 23.731107684696 | 0.7468 | 0.9768 | 18.67 | 19.6468 | T | T | -2.61 | 63.39 | 39 | 321.80012160603 | 7.6366733387809 | 0.21290771028613 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-21 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.62 | 23.64 | 26.63 | 24.071719916561 | 0.8324 | 1.0724 | 18.67 | 19.7424 | T | T | -2.38 | 63.62 | 39 | 322.0388875157 | 7.7520299025189 | 0.22068303204898 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-21 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.66 | 23.62 | 26.64 | 23.967120297275 | 0.7813 | 1.0213 | 18.67 | 19.6913 | T | T | -2.34 | 59.66 | 39 | 321.96558616162 | 7.7165879351181 | 0.2220516432743 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-21 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.8 | 24.27 | 27.035 | 23.142954614593 | 0.7616 | 0.9916 | 18.67 | 19.6616 | T | T | -2.2 | 63.8 | 39 | 321.38734532026 | 7.4378527464513 | 0.22687968961894 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-21 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.8 | 24.06 | 26.93 | 23.676615064661 | 0.828 | 1.118 | 18.67 | 19.788 | T | T | -2.2 | 62.8 | 39 | 321.76190363055 | 7.6182327347333 | 0.22687968961894 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-21 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.71 | 24.03 | 26.87 | 23.658855679588 | 0.8214 | 1.1214 | 18.67 | 19.7914 | T | T | -2.29 | 57.71 | 39 | 321.74944708093 | 7.612223733475 | 0.22376918933278 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 30.29 | 24.18 | 27.235 | 49.433337655036 | 0.8153 | 1.0853 | 18.6 | 19.6853 | T | T | -1.71 | 69.29 | 39 | 339.2491676837 | 16.770218655298 | 0.2442351393882 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.72 | 24.7 | 27.21 | 49.625934682613 | 0.84 | 1.14 | 18.6 | 19.74 | T | T | -2.28 | 68.72 | 39 | 339.37566780844 | 16.84183472353 | 0.22411360092141 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.51 | 25.57 | 27.54 | 48.670529269263 | 0.6951 | 0.9051 | 18.6 | 19.5051 | T | T | -2.49 | 69.51 | 39 | 338.74753727717 | 16.487021927939 | 0.2169443199678 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 31.93 | 24.58 | 28.255 | 48.324693592057 | 0.644 | 0.854 | 18.6 | 19.454 | T | T | -0.07 | 71.93 | 39 | 338.51979187814 | 16.358865217358 | 0.30715316680372 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 32.11 | 24.59 | 28.35 | 48.639476788816 | 0.765 | 0.955 | 18.61 | 19.565 | T | T | 0.11 | 71.11 | 39 | 338.72709626103 | 16.475508736331 | 0.31447170702705 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.44 | 24.6 | 27.02 | 49.341692417104 | 0.8377 | 0.9977 | 18.61 | 19.6077 | T | T | -2.56 | 65.44 | 39 | 339.18895221817 | 16.736156951628 | 0.21458428877243 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 31.98 | 24.02 | 28 | 16.261932900143 | 0.6848 | 0.7648 | 17.88 | 18.6448 | T | T | -0.02 | 70.98 | 39 | 316.51203303523 | 5.1470974433068 | 0.30917857536784 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 33.02 | 25.21 | 29.115 | 15.097540857561 | 0.4908 | 0.5308 | 17.88 | 18.4108 | T | T | 1.02 | 72.02 | 39 | 315.67858054121 | 4.7659702675779 | 0.35254514311464 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 33.04 | 25.22 | 29.13 | 15.034272483751 | 0.4577 | 0.4577 | 17.88 | 18.3377 | T | T | 1.04 | 71.04 | 39 | 315.63322344356 | 4.7453158861752 | 0.35340052486145 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 33.4 | 25.1 | 29.25 | 16.363398224774 | 0.6042 | 0.7442 | 17.88 | 18.6242 | T | T | 1.4 | 69.4 | 39 | 316.58454353945 | 5.1803989577443 | 0.36892024313438 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 07:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 32.69 | 23.97 | 28.33 | 18.275826026256 | 0.7797 | 0.9297 | 17.94 | 18.8697 | T | T | 0.69 | 62.69 | 39 | 317.94773852354 | 5.8107575546978 | 0.33854170292998 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 31.65 | 24 | 27.825 | 19.713828768742 | 0.8471 | 0.9971 | 18.24 | 19.2371 | T | T | -0.35 | 64.65 | 39 | 318.96840656425 | 6.2880885496462 | 0.2959205866232 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 33.64 | 25.5 | 29.57 | 19.437986380491 | 0.6963 | 0.8263 | 18.9 | 19.7263 | T | T | 1.64 | 69.64 | 39 | 318.77290754656 | 6.1963034353596 | 0.37938856423507 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 35.24 | 24.89 | 30.065 | 18.867124553755 | 0.5368 | 0.6668 | 18.99 | 19.6568 | T | T | 3.24 | 71.24 | 39 | 318.36788275197 | 6.0066864977968 | 0.45109098505466 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 35.27 | 24.6 | 29.935 | 18.894050054574 | 0.618 | 0.758 | 18.84 | 19.598 | T | T | 3.27 | 71.27 | 39 | 318.38699951557 | 6.0156199055728 | 0.45245861169571 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 28.83 | 25.25 | 27.04 | 22.981842461253 | 0.8652 | 1.0852 | 18.87 | 19.9552 | T | T | -3.17 | 60.83 | 39 | 321.27416630899 | 7.3834722769836 | 0.19465733405035 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 28.42 | 25.3 | 26.86 | 24.407772482856 | 0.8652 | 1.1552 | 18.83 | 19.9852 | T | T | -3.58 | 52.42 | 39 | 322.27425479014 | 7.8659966879998 | 0.18191791541971 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 32.31 | 24.9 | 28.605 | 23.201286897985 | 0.8847 | 1.1947 | 18.85 | 20.0447 | T | T | 0.31 | 62.31 | 39 | 321.42831150625 | 7.4575504723913 | 0.32268961460907 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.6 | 26.28 | 27.94 | 19.256340011688 | 0.9197 | 1.4197 | 18.76 | 20.1797 | T | T | -2.4 | 74.6 | 39 | 318.6440936788 | 6.1359190105952 | 0.22000053907863 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.89 | 24.8 | 27.345 | 18.611553013744 | 0.7958 | 1.3058 | 18.82 | 20.1258 | T | T | -2.11 | 73.89 | 39 | 318.18636508973 | 5.9219424021179 | 0.23001438945011 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 29.91 | 24.98 | 27.445 | 18.695931088679 | 0.7958 | 1.3058 | 18.63 | 19.9358 | T | T | -2.09 | 71.91 | 39 | 318.24630697915 | 5.9499110245088 | 0.23071426082785 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 34.73 | 25.29 | 30.01 | 14.261067623712 | 0.2054 | 0.5854 | 18.45 | 19.0354 | T | T | 2.73 | 76.73 | 39 | 315.07832361645 | 4.49335327986 | 0.42794314529287 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 34.39 | 26.03 | 30.21 | 14.945204610909 | 0.1973 | 0.5673 | 18.14 | 18.7073 | T | T | 2.39 | 70.39 | 39 | 315.5693583302 | 4.7162486291782 | 0.4126428721466 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 34.44 | 26 | 30.22 | 14.839242603443 | 0.1973 | 0.5673 | 18.02 | 18.5873 | T | T | 2.44 | 71.44 | 39 | 315.49336064675 | 4.6816825184127 | 0.41488519255048 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 33.81 | 24.7 | 29.255 | 12.575570869804 | 0.4267 | 1.1167 | 17.69 | 18.8067 | T | T | 1.81 | 75.81 | 39 | 313.86492274265 | 3.9470305794958 | 0.38685799535265 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 34.11 | 26.19 | 30.15 | 12.918731019698 | 0.3539 | 1.0439 | 18.03 | 19.0739 | T | T | 2.11 | 73.11 | 39 | 314.11238745855 | 4.057933443532 | 0.40014047330342 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 28.91 | 27.44 | 28.175 | 14.055331078975 | 0.3837 | 1.0937 | 17.81 | 18.9037 | T | T | -3.09 | 67.91 | 39 | 314.93049063684 | 4.4264523127648 | 0.19720478660514 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 30.8 | 28.83 | 29.815 | 11.832931748764 | 0.3363 | 0.5563 | 17.55 | 18.1063 | T | T | -1.2 | 69.8 | 39 | 313.32864078373 | 3.7075964213268 | 0.26303182132162 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 09:30:31 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 30.63 | 28.83 | 29.73 | 11.88467591413 | 0.3222 | 0.5422 | 17.56 | 18.1022 | T | T | -1.37 | 71.63 | 39 | 313.36603959098 | 3.7242538230331 | 0.25668525832248 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 30.63 | 28.69 | 29.66 | 79.087376201907 | 0.3022 | 0.5222 | 17.48 | 18.0022 | T | T | -1.37 | 74.63 | 39 | 358.01545227347 | 28.314502760048 | 0.25668525832248 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 54 | 134 | 31.81 | 31.1 | 31.455 | 79.599071841935 | 0.2408 | 0.4708 | 17.74 | 18.2108 | T | T | -0.19 | 62.81 | 39 | 358.32702935821 | 28.522498952791 | 0.30231619451801 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |