MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 22, 2021

[ Sunday, November 21, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 23, 2021 ]

DAY 53 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/23/2021 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.727
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 63

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.29 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.36 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 19.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 40
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 320.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.63 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 133

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 18.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-11-23 07:00:06OBSERVATION20225313342.4599829.6636.0599920.6658265217390.289999999999960.3599999999999618.8719.23TT10.4599863.4599840320.69744272612 6.62747771734340.7265781391625490 44122218WETL
2021-11-23 03:00:06OBSERVATION20225313342.4599829.6636.0599920.6658265217390.289999999999960.3599999999999618.8719.23TT10.4599863.4599840320.69744272612 6.62747771734340.7265781391625490 44122218WETL
2021-11-22 11:00:02FORECAST20225313342.7829.3636.0722.2651888556750.26970.339718.8719.2097TT10.7863.7840321.821260708167.16541114743850.73730566218489044122218WETL
2021-11-22 07:00:08FORECAST20225313343.3329.0736.222.0309338359680.32590.395918.8719.2659TT11.3364.3340321.65694283837.08640282555050.755226595151379044122218WETL
2021-11-22 03:00:11FORECAST20225313337.8828.8533.36522.072935940650.31660.386618.8719.2566TT5.8858.8840321.68641235247.10056357283190.55428469697279034122216WETL
2021-11-21 23:00:02FORECAST20225313344.0829.3336.70520.9567005370970.22630.296318.8719.1663TT12.0866.0840320.902169881646.7250506759140.778565214953169044122218WETL
2021-11-21 19:00:01FORECAST20225313344.0629.236.6320.8905458756040.23940.309418.8719.1794TT12.0666.0640320.855621238786.70284907493420.777959803278229044122218WETL
2021-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20225313339.7529.3334.5420.913802354720.23780.307818.8719.1778TT7.7561.7540320.871986170526.71065329993680.628074219658759034122216WETL
2021-11-21 11:00:02FORECAST20225313344.3829.9937.18520.045215110690.22670.296718.8719.1667TT12.3866.3840320.260129057986.41968317834450.787532655397829044122218WETL
2021-11-21 07:00:15FORECAST20225313343.2830.0536.66520.2398109676720.29140.361418.8719.2314TT11.2865.2840320.397325173276.48478129605490.753625032050799044122218WETL
2021-11-21 03:00:08FORECAST20225313343.3530.0636.70520.3562344894750.30230.372318.8719.2423TT11.3560.3540320.47937495136.5237533055490.755865650030099044122218WETL
2021-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20225313344.0729.933745.45538993430.27350.273518.8719.1435TT12.0771.0740337.613485903115.3463526488040.77826262694649904412129WETL
2021-11-20 19:00:02FORECAST20225313344.0629.9136.98545.5611448942670.30140.301418.8719.1714TT12.0671.0640337.6833940516915.3852420447770.77795980327822904412129WETL
2021-11-20 15:00:02FORECAST20225313344.3429.4236.8845.2554945795140.2050.20518.8719.075TT12.3472.3440337.4812959819615.2728829609990.78634937639453904412129WETL
2021-11-20 11:00:02FORECAST20225313344.2929.8537.0745.2164172742780.20840.208418.8719.0784TT12.2972.2940337.455446487715.2585262798660.78486490258637904412129WETL
2021-11-20 07:00:17FORECAST20225313344.1929.6636.92545.0236837442770.1850.19518.8719.065TT12.1971.1940337.3279164231715.1877454271520.78187809298175904412129WETL
2021-11-20 03:00:10FORECAST20225313344.2929.6936.9945.0153035978030.1570.16718.8719.037TT12.2968.2940337.3223699382815.1846688931020.78486490258637904412129WETL
2021-11-19 23:00:04FORECAST20225313344.2328.636.41512.9063720430280.08140.091418.1418.2314TT12.2371.2340315.179859077484.06782852172320.783075669563639044123227WETH
2021-11-19 19:00:04FORECAST20225313344.1829.8537.01512.7704317506140.03880.048818.1418.1888TT12.1871.1840315.082222253114.0237360151150.781578105615669044113213.5WETH
2021-11-19 15:00:03FORECAST20225313343.6429.3536.49512.8217973507500.0118.1418.15TT11.6469.6440315.119118692544.04039348122260.765030198328589044113213.5WETH
2021-11-19 11:00:05FORECAST20225313342.3229.836.0613.409779774310.14260.152618.1418.2926TT10.3268.3240315.541129759884.2313370598170.721818647228159044123227WETH
2021-11-19 07:00:10FORECAST20225313337.3428.7133.02514.0666605513790.1470.15718.218.357TT5.3462.3440316.011846290594.44523137198420.532498574035759034123224WETH
2021-11-19 03:00:15FORECAST20225313341.9429.5935.76514.7779054083110.15060.170618.4918.6606TT9.9464.9440316.520634981944.67751200354170.708698366849119044123227WETH
2021-11-18 23:00:02FORECAST20225313342.3330.0636.19515.8886061551620.12640.156419.1419.2964TT10.3368.3340317.313338085175.04166665661480.722159993667339044122218WETL
2021-11-18 19:00:04FORECAST20225313341.7830.0435.9116.2276095145770.12690.156919.2319.3869TT9.7867.7840317.55483844145.15315591769160.703089030039639044122218WETL
2021-11-18 15:00:03FORECAST20225313342.5830.4636.5215.9216163725540.14210.172119.0819.2521TT10.5867.5840317.336863154755.05251579601950.730626644373129044122218WETL
2021-11-18 11:00:04FORECAST20225313340.3529.2734.8117.5154760932330.22190.261919.119.3619TT8.3564.3540318.470399937955.57816067651530.650919761609239034122216WETL
2021-11-18 07:00:14FORECAST20225313335.8327.6131.7218.812361286520.28610.326119.0619.3861TT3.8355.8340319.389351355046.00846786875830.471268292051279024122214WETL
2021-11-18 03:00:07FORECAST20225313338.5726.9832.77517.8417404895410.31050.350519.0819.4305TT6.5761.5740318.701870555145.68619606797620.581877136504529034122216WETL
2021-11-17 23:00:04FORECAST20225313343.7629.7436.7514.6361155447650.49630.536318.9919.5263TT11.7676.7640316.419279007454.63114912814420.768766172796459044133240.5WETH
2021-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20225313343.5930.3436.96514.3473780348620.51180.571819.0319.6018TT11.5975.5940316.212767221674.53682411077910.763463770363419044133240.5WETH
2021-11-17 15:00:06FORECAST20225313343.4430.3636.914.2968476784340.51180.611818.819.4118TT11.4474.4440316.176611160524.52032884924560.758730247080999044133240.5WETH
2021-11-17 11:00:03FORECAST20225313340.4127.834.10514.0737302040530.38350.483518.6219.1035TT8.4174.4140316.016908087544.4475367043430.653176118352229034123224WETH
2021-11-17 07:00:06FORECAST20225313340.0926.9133.514.8476478706960.37280.432818.3518.7828TT8.0968.0940316.570475755314.70032695027370.641081373395019034123224WETH
2021-11-17 03:00:17FORECAST20225313340.2126.9133.5614.7389448325680.37280.382818.2818.6628TT8.2169.2140316.492788340874.66476974726170.645634266201929034123224WETH
2021-11-16 23:00:03FORECAST20225313339.9429.1434.5411.6337222625530.67960.689617.9618.6496TT7.9473.9440314.264478915233.65606566468590.63536203109979034133236WETH
2021-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20225313339.5629.2834.4211.6523206883420.67960.699618.2918.9896TT7.5670.5640314.27787754123.66206661436160.620740246959569034133236WETH
2021-11-16 15:00:03FORECAST20225313338.9929.2834.13511.5720288065250.69940.719418.0718.7894TT6.9970.9940314.220029355583.63616323128990.598486219800559034133236WETH
2021-11-16 11:00:04FORECAST20225313337.5929.633.59511.8329317487640.20270.262717.7818.0427TT5.5970.5940314.407959943563.72036793128030.542600863268669034123224WETH
2021-11-16 09:30:31FORECAST20225313340.7729.635.18511.884675914130.20270.272717.7818.0527TT8.7772.7740314.445216905033.73707949566440.666598066347679034123224WETH
2021-11-16 07:00:17FORECAST20225313341.2929.6135.4579.0873762019070.20270.272717.717.9727TT9.2976.2940358.9252837801428.3864589466960.68561113404863903412128WETL
2021-11-16 03:00:10FORECAST2022531334131.1436.0779.5990718419350.20570.275717.9618.2357TT96340359.2356791186928.5948266303550.6750642463182903412128WETL
2021-11-15 23:00:04FORECAST20225313335.0626.1630.6110.4306031137550.54470.644719.1719.8147TT3.0675.0640313.396384967023.26891330887670.44021450800519024133231.5WETL
2021-11-15 19:00:03FORECAST20225313334.5828.7431.6610.4788147283420.55470.664719.119.7647TT2.5872.5840313.431222435663.2843877099810.421028587925689024133231.5WETL
2021-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20225313334.630.4232.518.92541830661450.45160.561619.2819.8416TT2.669.640312.306597555422.78746702309770.421824596107869024133231.5WETH
2021-11-15 14:54:21FORECAST20225313334.630.4232.518.92541830661450.45160.561619.2819.8416TT2.669.640312.306597555422.78746702309770.421824596107869024133231.5WETH
2021-11-15 11:00:04FORECAST20225313339.9634.4637.2160.62785023541600.1318.618.73TT7.9672.9640347.4535932776621.0653644169950.63612638492599903412128WETL
2021-11-15 07:00:14FORECAST20225313335.2734.4734.8761.62747998464500.1318.7218.85TT3.2767.2740348.0886850126121.4518284684960.44865547202546902412127WETL
2021-11-15 03:00:11FORECAST20225313336.9136.736.80561.3039766541010.02410.264118.7819.0441TT4.9180.9140347.8833310819521.3266316069990.51507722701528903412128WETL