Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 22, 2021
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021 ]
DAY 53
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/23/2021 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.06°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.727
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 63
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.29 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.36 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 19.23 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 40
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 320.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.63 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 133
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 18.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-11-23 07:00:06 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 42.45998 | 29.66 | 36.05999 | 20.665826521739 | 0.28999999999996 | 0.35999999999996 | 18.87 | 19.23 | T | T | 10.45998 | 63.45998 | 40 | 320.69744272612 | 6.6274777173434 | 0.72657813916254 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-23 03:00:06 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 42.45998 | 29.66 | 36.05999 | 20.665826521739 | 0.28999999999996 | 0.35999999999996 | 18.87 | 19.23 | T | T | 10.45998 | 63.45998 | 40 | 320.69744272612 | 6.6274777173434 | 0.72657813916254 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-22 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 42.78 | 29.36 | 36.07 | 22.265188855675 | 0.2697 | 0.3397 | 18.87 | 19.2097 | T | T | 10.78 | 63.78 | 40 | 321.82126070816 | 7.1654111474385 | 0.7373056621848 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-22 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 43.33 | 29.07 | 36.2 | 22.030933835968 | 0.3259 | 0.3959 | 18.87 | 19.2659 | T | T | 11.33 | 64.33 | 40 | 321.6569428383 | 7.0864028255505 | 0.75522659515137 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-22 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 37.88 | 28.85 | 33.365 | 22.07293594065 | 0.3166 | 0.3866 | 18.87 | 19.2566 | T | T | 5.88 | 58.88 | 40 | 321.6864123524 | 7.1005635728319 | 0.5542846969727 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-21 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.08 | 29.33 | 36.705 | 20.956700537097 | 0.2263 | 0.2963 | 18.87 | 19.1663 | T | T | 12.08 | 66.08 | 40 | 320.90216988164 | 6.725050675914 | 0.77856521495316 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-21 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.06 | 29.2 | 36.63 | 20.890545875604 | 0.2394 | 0.3094 | 18.87 | 19.1794 | T | T | 12.06 | 66.06 | 40 | 320.85562123878 | 6.7028490749342 | 0.77795980327822 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-21 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 39.75 | 29.33 | 34.54 | 20.91380235472 | 0.2378 | 0.3078 | 18.87 | 19.1778 | T | T | 7.75 | 61.75 | 40 | 320.87198617052 | 6.7106532999368 | 0.62807421965875 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-21 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.38 | 29.99 | 37.185 | 20.04521511069 | 0.2267 | 0.2967 | 18.87 | 19.1667 | T | T | 12.38 | 66.38 | 40 | 320.26012905798 | 6.4196831783445 | 0.78753265539782 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-21 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 43.28 | 30.05 | 36.665 | 20.239810967672 | 0.2914 | 0.3614 | 18.87 | 19.2314 | T | T | 11.28 | 65.28 | 40 | 320.39732517327 | 6.4847812960549 | 0.75362503205079 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-21 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 43.35 | 30.06 | 36.705 | 20.356234489475 | 0.3023 | 0.3723 | 18.87 | 19.2423 | T | T | 11.35 | 60.35 | 40 | 320.4793749513 | 6.523753305549 | 0.75586565003009 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-20 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.07 | 29.93 | 37 | 45.4553899343 | 0.2735 | 0.2735 | 18.87 | 19.1435 | T | T | 12.07 | 71.07 | 40 | 337.6134859031 | 15.346352648804 | 0.77826262694649 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-11-20 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.06 | 29.91 | 36.985 | 45.561144894267 | 0.3014 | 0.3014 | 18.87 | 19.1714 | T | T | 12.06 | 71.06 | 40 | 337.68339405169 | 15.385242044777 | 0.77795980327822 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-11-20 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.34 | 29.42 | 36.88 | 45.255494579514 | 0.205 | 0.205 | 18.87 | 19.075 | T | T | 12.34 | 72.34 | 40 | 337.48129598196 | 15.272882960999 | 0.78634937639453 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-11-20 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.29 | 29.85 | 37.07 | 45.216417274278 | 0.2084 | 0.2084 | 18.87 | 19.0784 | T | T | 12.29 | 72.29 | 40 | 337.4554464877 | 15.258526279866 | 0.78486490258637 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-11-20 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.19 | 29.66 | 36.925 | 45.023683744277 | 0.185 | 0.195 | 18.87 | 19.065 | T | T | 12.19 | 71.19 | 40 | 337.32791642317 | 15.187745427152 | 0.78187809298175 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-11-20 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.29 | 29.69 | 36.99 | 45.015303597803 | 0.157 | 0.167 | 18.87 | 19.037 | T | T | 12.29 | 68.29 | 40 | 337.32236993828 | 15.184668893102 | 0.78486490258637 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-11-19 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.23 | 28.6 | 36.415 | 12.906372043028 | 0.0814 | 0.0914 | 18.14 | 18.2314 | T | T | 12.23 | 71.23 | 40 | 315.17985907748 | 4.0678285217232 | 0.78307566956363 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-11-19 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 44.18 | 29.85 | 37.015 | 12.770431750614 | 0.0388 | 0.0488 | 18.14 | 18.1888 | T | T | 12.18 | 71.18 | 40 | 315.08222225311 | 4.023736015115 | 0.78157810561566 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-19 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 43.64 | 29.35 | 36.495 | 12.82179735075 | 0 | 0.01 | 18.14 | 18.15 | T | T | 11.64 | 69.64 | 40 | 315.11911869254 | 4.0403934812226 | 0.76503019832858 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-19 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 42.32 | 29.8 | 36.06 | 13.40977977431 | 0.1426 | 0.1526 | 18.14 | 18.2926 | T | T | 10.32 | 68.32 | 40 | 315.54112975988 | 4.231337059817 | 0.72181864722815 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-11-19 07:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 37.34 | 28.71 | 33.025 | 14.066660551379 | 0.147 | 0.157 | 18.2 | 18.357 | T | T | 5.34 | 62.34 | 40 | 316.01184629059 | 4.4452313719842 | 0.53249857403575 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-11-19 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 41.94 | 29.59 | 35.765 | 14.777905408311 | 0.1506 | 0.1706 | 18.49 | 18.6606 | T | T | 9.94 | 64.94 | 40 | 316.52063498194 | 4.6775120035417 | 0.70869836684911 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-11-18 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 42.33 | 30.06 | 36.195 | 15.888606155162 | 0.1264 | 0.1564 | 19.14 | 19.2964 | T | T | 10.33 | 68.33 | 40 | 317.31333808517 | 5.0416666566148 | 0.72215999366733 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-18 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 41.78 | 30.04 | 35.91 | 16.227609514577 | 0.1269 | 0.1569 | 19.23 | 19.3869 | T | T | 9.78 | 67.78 | 40 | 317.5548384414 | 5.1531559176916 | 0.70308903003963 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-18 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 42.58 | 30.46 | 36.52 | 15.921616372554 | 0.1421 | 0.1721 | 19.08 | 19.2521 | T | T | 10.58 | 67.58 | 40 | 317.33686315475 | 5.0525157960195 | 0.73062664437312 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-18 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 40.35 | 29.27 | 34.81 | 17.515476093233 | 0.2219 | 0.2619 | 19.1 | 19.3619 | T | T | 8.35 | 64.35 | 40 | 318.47039993795 | 5.5781606765153 | 0.65091976160923 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-18 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 35.83 | 27.61 | 31.72 | 18.81236128652 | 0.2861 | 0.3261 | 19.06 | 19.3861 | T | T | 3.83 | 55.83 | 40 | 319.38935135504 | 6.0084678687583 | 0.47126829205127 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-11-18 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 38.57 | 26.98 | 32.775 | 17.841740489541 | 0.3105 | 0.3505 | 19.08 | 19.4305 | T | T | 6.57 | 61.57 | 40 | 318.70187055514 | 5.6861960679762 | 0.58187713650452 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-17 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 43.76 | 29.74 | 36.75 | 14.636115544765 | 0.4963 | 0.5363 | 18.99 | 19.5263 | T | T | 11.76 | 76.76 | 40 | 316.41927900745 | 4.6311491281442 | 0.76876617279645 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 40.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-17 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 43.59 | 30.34 | 36.965 | 14.347378034862 | 0.5118 | 0.5718 | 19.03 | 19.6018 | T | T | 11.59 | 75.59 | 40 | 316.21276722167 | 4.5368241107791 | 0.76346377036341 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 40.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-17 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 43.44 | 30.36 | 36.9 | 14.296847678434 | 0.5118 | 0.6118 | 18.8 | 19.4118 | T | T | 11.44 | 74.44 | 40 | 316.17661116052 | 4.5203288492456 | 0.75873024708099 | 90 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 40.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-17 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 40.41 | 27.8 | 34.105 | 14.073730204053 | 0.3835 | 0.4835 | 18.62 | 19.1035 | T | T | 8.41 | 74.41 | 40 | 316.01690808754 | 4.447536704343 | 0.65317611835222 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-11-17 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 40.09 | 26.91 | 33.5 | 14.847647870696 | 0.3728 | 0.4328 | 18.35 | 18.7828 | T | T | 8.09 | 68.09 | 40 | 316.57047575531 | 4.7003269502737 | 0.64108137339501 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-11-17 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 40.21 | 26.91 | 33.56 | 14.738944832568 | 0.3728 | 0.3828 | 18.28 | 18.6628 | T | T | 8.21 | 69.21 | 40 | 316.49278834087 | 4.6647697472617 | 0.64563426620192 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-11-16 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 39.94 | 29.14 | 34.54 | 11.633722262553 | 0.6796 | 0.6896 | 17.96 | 18.6496 | T | T | 7.94 | 73.94 | 40 | 314.26447891523 | 3.6560656646859 | 0.6353620310997 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-16 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 39.56 | 29.28 | 34.42 | 11.652320688342 | 0.6796 | 0.6996 | 18.29 | 18.9896 | T | T | 7.56 | 70.56 | 40 | 314.2778775412 | 3.6620666143616 | 0.62074024695956 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-16 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 38.99 | 29.28 | 34.135 | 11.572028806525 | 0.6994 | 0.7194 | 18.07 | 18.7894 | T | T | 6.99 | 70.99 | 40 | 314.22002935558 | 3.6361632312899 | 0.59848621980055 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-16 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 37.59 | 29.6 | 33.595 | 11.832931748764 | 0.2027 | 0.2627 | 17.78 | 18.0427 | T | T | 5.59 | 70.59 | 40 | 314.40795994356 | 3.7203679312803 | 0.54260086326866 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-11-16 09:30:31 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 40.77 | 29.6 | 35.185 | 11.88467591413 | 0.2027 | 0.2727 | 17.78 | 18.0527 | T | T | 8.77 | 72.77 | 40 | 314.44521690503 | 3.7370794956644 | 0.66659806634767 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-11-16 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 41.29 | 29.61 | 35.45 | 79.087376201907 | 0.2027 | 0.2727 | 17.7 | 17.9727 | T | T | 9.29 | 76.29 | 40 | 358.92528378014 | 28.386458946696 | 0.68561113404863 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-11-16 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 41 | 31.14 | 36.07 | 79.599071841935 | 0.2057 | 0.2757 | 17.96 | 18.2357 | T | T | 9 | 63 | 40 | 359.23567911869 | 28.594826630355 | 0.6750642463182 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-11-15 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 35.06 | 26.16 | 30.61 | 10.430603113755 | 0.5447 | 0.6447 | 19.17 | 19.8147 | T | T | 3.06 | 75.06 | 40 | 313.39638496702 | 3.2689133088767 | 0.4402145080051 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-15 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 34.58 | 28.74 | 31.66 | 10.478814728342 | 0.5547 | 0.6647 | 19.1 | 19.7647 | T | T | 2.58 | 72.58 | 40 | 313.43122243566 | 3.284387709981 | 0.42102858792568 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-15 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 34.6 | 30.42 | 32.51 | 8.9254183066145 | 0.4516 | 0.5616 | 19.28 | 19.8416 | T | T | 2.6 | 69.6 | 40 | 312.30659755542 | 2.7874670230977 | 0.42182459610786 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-15 14:54:21 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 34.6 | 30.42 | 32.51 | 8.9254183066145 | 0.4516 | 0.5616 | 19.28 | 19.8416 | T | T | 2.6 | 69.6 | 40 | 312.30659755542 | 2.7874670230977 | 0.42182459610786 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-15 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 39.96 | 34.46 | 37.21 | 60.627850235416 | 0 | 0.13 | 18.6 | 18.73 | T | T | 7.96 | 72.96 | 40 | 347.45359327766 | 21.065364416995 | 0.63612638492599 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-11-15 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 35.27 | 34.47 | 34.87 | 61.627479984645 | 0 | 0.13 | 18.72 | 18.85 | T | T | 3.27 | 67.27 | 40 | 348.08868501261 | 21.451828468496 | 0.44865547202546 | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
2021-11-15 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 53 | 133 | 36.91 | 36.7 | 36.805 | 61.303976654101 | 0.0241 | 0.2641 | 18.78 | 19.0441 | T | T | 4.91 | 80.91 | 40 | 347.88333108195 | 21.326631606999 | 0.51507722701528 | 90 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |