Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 23, 2021

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DAY 205 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/24/2021 08:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.09°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.51°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.80°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.525 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 199 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.05 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.05 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 178 in SWE DAY: 112 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.58 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 81.36 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -80 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-24 07:56:12	OBSERVATION	2021	205	-80	44.09006	27.51008	35.80007	178.1984625	0	0	1.05	1.05	F	F	12.09006	199.09006	112	456.58158634029	81.36213669165	0.52491778544369	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-24 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2021	205	-80	44.09006	27.51008	35.80007	178.1984625	0	0	1.05	1.05	F	F	12.09006	199.09006	112	456.58158634029	81.36213669165	0.52491778544369	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-24 00:02:09	FORECAST	2021	205	-79	32.31	32.31	32.31	178.01578442788	0.005	0.005	1.05	1.055	F	F	0.31	187.31	113	457.0522387586	81.362512807129	0.10871034609422	91	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2021-04-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	205	-79	47.48	34.74	41.11	178.39445733333	0.0557	0.0557	1.05	1.1057	F	F	15.48	202.48	113	457.18764511594	81.559741849963	0.66833023933281	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	205	-79	44.6	28.97	36.785	178.3760846065	0.0498	0.0498	1.05	1.0998	F	F	12.6	199.6	113	457.18107837779	81.550170717209	0.54719603727403	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	205	-79	45.82	31.5	38.66	178.57620291667	0.0545	0.0545	1.05	1.1045	F	F	13.82	200.82	113	457.25258770146	81.654430885546	0.59976860807213	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-22 23:59:36	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	46.62	32.2	39.41	179.25828266667	0.0675	0.0775	1.05	1.1275	F	F	14.62	210.62	112	456.96149590936	81.914133001502	0.63334573470608	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	45.94	30.88	38.41	180.34877809602	0.0818	0.0918	1.05	1.1418	F	F	13.94	209.94	112	457.35133545805	82.482754510443	0.60485925770694	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-22 15:56:02	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	45.69	31.54	38.615	180.30666266667	0.0813	0.0913	1.05	1.1413	F	F	13.69	209.69	112	457.33629971478	82.460781917895	0.5942345754299	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	46.1	33.26	39.68	179.752944	0.0918	0.1018	1.05	1.1518	F	F	14.1	210.1	112	457.1384654543	82.171984981053	0.61161891335971	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-22 07:59:42	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	45.49	32.88	39.185	179.45504625	0.0782	0.0982	1.05	1.1482	F	F	13.49	205.49	112	457.03191648585	82.016683710695	0.58568416204876	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-22 03:55:57	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	45.31	32.81	39.06	179.30216268768	0.0836	0.1036	1.05	1.1536	F	F	13.31	211.31	112	456.97720337068	81.937000863331	0.57795379654839	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	45.12	32.49	38.805	180.532692	0.0451	0.0651	1.05	1.1151	F	F	13.12	196.12	112	457.41697621324	82.578718082275	0.56976131899338	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-04-21 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	45.62	31	38.31	181.60676533333	0.0222	0.0522	1.05	1.1022	F	F	13.62	210.62	112	457.79971213294	83.139524890994	0.59124681779956	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-21 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	46.21	33.62	39.915	181.52154	0.0296	0.0596	1.05	1.1096	F	F	14.21	211.21	112	457.76938101205	83.095003006154	0.61624678418306	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-21 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	45.33	33.31	39.32	180.60897961056	0.0402	0.0802	1.05	1.1302	F	F	13.33	208.33	112	457.44419504614	82.618529296058	0.57881426812644	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-21 07:59:42	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	40.69	33.44	37.065	180.34099946957	0.0529	0.1029	1.05	1.1529	F	F	8.69	203.69	112	457.3485585107	82.478696147789	0.37774177689369	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	44.38	33.34	38.86	180.07675438522	0.0548	0.1048	1.05	1.1548	F	F	12.38	209.38	112	457.25419117551	82.340850675923	0.53759874735157	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-21 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	41.65	32.47	37.06	181.31855767576	0.0731	0.1431	1.05	1.1931	F	F	9.65	189.65	112	457.69711452585	82.988980658187	0.41845718109525	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	44.46	32.95	38.705	182.75661046028	0.0705	0.1205	1.06	1.1805	F	F	12.46	195.46	112	458.20829301904	83.74059451695	0.54109150235696	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-20 16:02:07	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	44.93	33.87	39.4	182.48032498333	0.0653	0.1053	1.06	1.1653	F	F	12.93	200.93	112	458.11022784739	83.596103255777	0.56153870275866	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	49.09	32.95	41.02	181.40624547565	0.011	0.021	1.06	1.081	F	F	17.09	206.09	112	457.72833801828	83.034779247705	0.72985590358359	91	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-20 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	41.95	33.06	37.505	181.53982251212	0.0134	0.0234	1.06	1.0834	F	F	9.95	198.95	112	457.7758881879	83.104553491957	0.43138472973407	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-04-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	44.77	33.13	38.95	181.19141836893	0.019	0.039	1.07	1.109	F	F	12.77	201.77	112	457.65183095835	82.922584370483	0.55459358172632	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	48.75	33.06	40.905	181.91026575119	0.006	0.026	1.1	1.126	F	F	16.75	193.75	112	457.90767257433	83.298106407504	0.71734830125928	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-19 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	49.43	32.05	40.74	182.80535112512	0.0028	0.0128	1.11	1.1228	F	F	17.43	204.43	112	458.22558596191	83.76608913628	0.7420807181737	91	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-19 15:56:15	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	49.47	34.74	42.105	182.54078533333	0.0015	0.0215	1.09	1.1115	F	F	17.47	206.47	112	458.13169361502	83.627719138576	0.74349985358175	91	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-19 11:59:41	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	49.1	34.54	41.82	181.74505733333	0.0006	0.0206	1.09	1.1106	F	F	17.1	206.1	112	457.84891535331	83.211777370893	0.73021954601558	91	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-19 08:02:04	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	45.12	35.37	40.245	181.65431066667	0.0008	0.0208	1.08	1.1008	F	F	13.12	200.12	112	457.81663034317	83.164364396724	0.56976131899338	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-19 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	49.21	35.07	42.14	181.27939266667	0.0008	0.0208	1.08	1.1008	F	F	17.21	214.21	112	457.683166572	82.968526469928	0.73420338477475	91	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-19 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	50.13	37.83	43.98	184.67933066667	0	0	1.08	1.08	F	F	18.13	201.13	112	458.88884355282	84.747284477735	0.76631653081084	91	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-18 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	45.49	32.77	39.13	186.17365794226	0	0	1.1	1.1	F	F	13.49	212.49	112	459.41547301871	85.531059127168	0.58568416204876	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	48.9	32.65	40.775	185.94424533333	0	0	1.1	1.1	F	F	16.9	216.9	112	459.33475345758	85.410654087042	0.72290052095076	91	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	46.97	35.64	41.305	184.78427333333	0.0477	0.0477	1.09	1.1377	F	F	14.97	217.97	112	458.92589264649	84.802287586533	0.64773742928115	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	46.08	35.66	40.87	185.014256	0.0481	0.0581	1.09	1.1481	F	F	14.08	199.08	112	459.00705149442	84.922848130993	0.61077575618649	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-18 03:59:44	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	46.12	35.66	40.89	184.62144266667	0.0481	0.0581	1.1	1.1581	F	F	14.12	204.12	112	458.8684024724	84.716946458602	0.61246154502514	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-18 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	51.59	37.19	44.39	184.92666266667	0.0038	0.0138	1.08	1.0938	F	F	19.59	206.59	112	458.97614617183	84.876926955166	0.81256500004714	91	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-17 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	48.8	36.65	42.725	186.66242133333	0.0651	0.0751	1.12	1.1951	F	F	16.8	215.8	112	459.58728920948	85.787676217865	0.71920496403732	91	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-17 15:56:10	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	48.84	36.69	42.765	186.72435866667	0.0651	0.0951	1.11	1.2051	F	F	16.84	207.84	112	459.60904696797	85.820204532491	0.72068604039645	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-17 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	46.72	33.45	40.085	185.73522741974	0.0475	0.0775	1.17	1.2475	F	F	14.72	205.72	112	459.26116887451	85.300977645964	0.63747784950952	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-17 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	46.77	33.42	40.095	185.2490546331	0.0475	0.0975	1.29	1.3875	F	F	14.77	208.77	112	459.08986095978	85.045962734442	0.6395379547147	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-17 03:59:45	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	46.59	33.38	39.985	184.42838837369	0.0223	0.0323	1.32	1.3523	F	F	14.59	219.59	112	458.80021051175	84.615783410193	0.63210305648666	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-17 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	44.17	32.59	38.38	186.5880663051	0.0086	0.0286	1.34	1.3686	F	F	12.17	200.17	112	459.561164759	85.748629081299	0.52841715267763	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-16 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	44.21	33.12	38.665	187.62723701168	0.0069	0.0269	1.27	1.2969	F	F	12.21	213.21	112	459.92582775398	86.294612291788	0.53016734335585	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-16 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	47.26	33.33	40.295	187.56418169389	0.0057	0.0257	1.28	1.3057	F	F	15.26	217.26	112	459.90372797087	86.261466394827	0.65950486968791	91	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-04-16 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	36.47	32.82	34.645	187.64936667481	0.0066	0.0666	1.29	1.3566	F	F	4.47	195.47	112	459.93358297378	86.306245557508	0.21900623700937	91	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2021-04-16 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	36.42	32.87	34.645	187.26078340823	0.0047	0.0647	1.14	1.2047	F	F	4.42	203.42	112	459.79734269	86.102010601154	0.21738531520103	91	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-04-16 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	205	-80	37.89	34.41	36.15	186.62964567675	0.0029	0.0729	1.13	1.2029	F	F	5.89	204.89	112	459.57577417381	85.770463895677	0.26783992228385	91	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L