MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 22, 2021

[ Wednesday, April 21, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, April 23, 2021 ]

DAY 204 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/23/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.196
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 194

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 179 in
SWE DAY: 111
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.42 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 81.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -81

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 1.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-23 04:00:08OBSERVATION2021204-8135.8731.2200633.54503179.24996958333001.051.05FF3.87193.87111456.42192341683 81.8136158896340.1959879242796290 1111121.5DRYL
2021-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2021204-8045.333.8839.59180.478589333330.01390.01391.051.0639FF13.3203.3112457.3976696009382.550486173930.568686788397903121123DRYL
2021-04-22 07:59:42FORECAST2021204-8040.6333.6737.15180.155927583330.0170.0171.051.067FF8.63198.63112457.2824721931182.382147945550.36822603171594902111122DRYL
2021-04-22 03:55:57FORECAST2021204-8046.9132.4339.67179.958088916670.01730.01731.051.0673FF14.91204.91112457.2117926921282.2789604430360.63634819835388903121123DRYL
2021-04-22 00:00:05FORECAST2021204-8145.7232.9739.345181.221273333330.02490.02491.051.0749FF13.72189.72111457.1285493708282.8414177940.58662119329563903111122.5DRYL
2021-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2021204-8145.5331.5838.555182.278454666670.03040.03041.051.0804FF13.53203.53111457.5060475199983.3934953425980.57852802681605903121123DRYL
2021-04-21 16:00:02FORECAST2021204-8145.5132.4638.985182.2795480.03410.03411.051.0841FF13.51203.51111457.5064374028183.3940666168750.57767411893757903121123DRYL
2021-04-21 12:00:05FORECAST2021204-8144.333.6138.955181.295001333330.03690.03691.051.0869FF12.3202.3111457.1549090482582.8798998454420.52548010625034903121123DRYL
2021-04-21 07:59:42FORECAST2021204-8144.233.6638.93180.874661302770.04320.05321.051.1032FF12.2202.2111457.0045603802182.6605450725930.52113433531288903121123DRYL
2021-04-21 04:00:08FORECAST2021204-8145.4133.6239.515180.693772841370.0410.0511.051.101FF13.41204.41111456.9398101537982.5661782581050.57339918013341903121123DRYL
2021-04-21 00:00:06FORECAST2021204-8144.5934.4139.5181.855001691920.05730.06731.051.1173FF12.59186.59111457.3549626818583.1722875123150.53806386747489903111122.5DRYL
2021-04-20 20:00:06FORECAST2021204-8141.2733.4437.355183.320913333330.04250.06251.051.1125FF9.27190.27111457.8772972242283.9384843217430.39484291002885902111122DRYL
2021-04-20 16:02:06FORECAST2021204-8141.6133.7737.69183.118646666670.02660.04661.051.0966FF9.61194.61111457.8053410514283.8326944901070.40919432011758902111122DRYL
2021-04-20 12:00:06FORECAST2021204-8142.5533.0837.815182.2446360.01110.02111.051.0711FF10.55195.55111457.4939872438683.3758251774460.44945204930281902111122DRYL
2021-04-20 08:00:06FORECAST2021204-8142.0132.7937.4182.181318519350.01340.02341.051.0734FF10.01196.01111457.4714044342683.3427436447340.42623405105901902111122DRYL
2021-04-20 04:00:08FORECAST2021204-8142.1532.7837.465181.918274424620.02060.04061.051.0906FF10.15196.15111457.3775482450983.2053343373120.43223237063907902111122DRYL
2021-04-20 00:00:06FORECAST2021204-8142.2332.7737.5182.835676637760.01780.06781.051.1178FF10.23184.23111457.7046126789883.6847325593850.43566710010127902111122DRYL
2021-04-19 20:00:06FORECAST2021204-8144.0733.3838.725183.699609333330.01290.06291.061.1229FF12.07194.07111458.0119186036384.1366105174980.51548115186028903111122.5DRYL
2021-04-19 15:56:15FORECAST2021204-8144.6533.1338.89183.5386160.02170.05171.061.1117FF12.65195.65111457.954703442984.05237246060.54066307249805903111122.5DRYL
2021-04-19 11:59:41FORECAST2021204-8146.1635.2440.7182.707354666670.01280.05281.061.1128FF14.16196.16111457.6589102542883.6176488321880.60521710477922903111122.5DRYL
2021-04-19 08:02:04FORECAST2021204-8142.2735.7238.995182.585393333330.0140.0441.061.104FF10.27194.27111457.6154593891483.5538986479790.43738630296965902111122DRYL
2021-04-19 04:00:07FORECAST2021204-8148.7935.6442.215182.321831333330.01730.03731.061.0973FF16.79203.79111457.5215148149783.4161604554660.71016510200462904121123.5DRYL
2021-04-19 00:00:06FORECAST2021204-8151.0337.244.115185.993681333330.00050.02051.061.0805FF19.03190.03111458.8246682410485.3384891326970.78766350221522904111123DRYL
2021-04-18 20:00:07FORECAST2021204-8150.4434.1742.305187.147161942260.00050.03051.071.1005FF18.44206.44111459.231540488485.9438794767770.76850781278648904121123.5DRYL
2021-04-18 16:00:06FORECAST2021204-8150.5137.3743.94187.005981333330.00060.03061.071.1006FF18.51206.51111459.1818052356485.8697440985030.77082961616863904121123.5DRYL
2021-04-18 12:00:06FORECAST2021204-8151.5936.6144.1185.727765333330.00150.03151.061.0915FF19.59209.59111458.730701326785.1990280472010.80495953305596904121123.5DRYL
2021-04-18 08:00:06FORECAST2021204-8146.5536.6141.58185.932546666670.00260.03261.071.1026FF14.55191.55111458.8030706611485.3064233465130.6215032474019903111122.5DRYL
2021-04-18 03:59:44FORECAST2021204-8148.1236.4942.305185.545965333330.00280.04281.071.1128FF16.12197.12111458.6664220012685.1037040362090.68465379881829903111122.5DRYL
2021-04-18 00:00:06FORECAST2021204-8146.8936.6941.79186.276546666670.00260.04261.051.0926FF14.89193.89111458.9245549123585.486881269610.63552859004295903111122.5DRYL
2021-04-17 20:00:06FORECAST2021204-8146.6732.839.735187.770350666670.00280.06281.071.1328FF14.67205.67111459.4508650740486.2712500490560.62647275131184903121123DRYL
2021-04-17 15:56:10FORECAST2021204-8147.3932.8140.1187.8349120.00380.08381.061.1438FF15.39198.39111459.473566902986.3051770055330.65582407438227903111122.5DRYL
2021-04-17 12:00:06FORECAST2021204-8146.5332.8439.685186.533852753080.00680.12681.071.1968FF14.53197.53111459.0153536768485.6219023941570.62067301504657903112125DRYL
2021-04-17 08:00:06FORECAST2021204-8146.5832.8539.715186.044673299770.00680.26681.071.3368FF14.58200.58111458.8426800551885.3652365068580.62274754431481903122126DRYL
2021-04-17 03:59:45FORECAST2021204-8147.0533.7440.395185.220647255170.00450.28451.051.3345FF15.05212.05111458.5513246468584.9331731508080.64206781503661903122126DRYL
2021-04-17 00:00:06FORECAST2021204-8144.9733.9339.45187.166860376080.00950.29951.061.3595FF12.97194.97111459.2384784555785.9542241764170.55449348446176903112125DRYL
2021-04-16 20:00:06FORECAST2021204-8145.0233.9339.475188.168136788980.00950.21951.071.2895FF13.02208.02111459.5906802162486.4803219818720.55664894320228903122126DRYL
2021-04-16 16:00:06FORECAST2021204-8145.5532.8339.19187.998592388740.00970.22971.071.2997FF13.55208.55111459.5311054799486.3912009890680.57938156560451903122126DRYL
2021-04-16 12:00:06FORECAST2021204-8138.3131.9135.11187.826974193340.05490.28491.071.3549FF6.31198.31111459.4707759170286.3010055707610.27768786541907902112124DRYL
2021-04-16 08:00:06FORECAST2021204-8138.5531.9135.23187.373068661710.05490.13491.071.2049FF6.55205.55111459.3110860518986.0625276638820.28653606964754902122125DRYL
2021-04-16 04:00:08FORECAST2021204-8141.1833.3437.26186.736000064660.05520.12521.071.1952FF9.18206.18111459.0866462735385.7280040082170.39106690544999902122125DRYL
2021-04-15 23:59:43FORECAST2021204-8150.4933.9842.235187.616049333330.00020.07021.081.1502FF18.49215.49111459.3965927086386.1901738011880.77016757737094904121123.5DRYL
2021-04-15 20:00:06FORECAST2021204-8150.4336.2543.34188.860573333330.00020.17021.091.2602FF18.43213.43111459.8337233085686.8444606220550.76817506115135904122127DRYL
2021-04-15 16:00:07FORECAST2021204-8147.3435.3141.325189.2723773333300.131.071.2FF15.34212.34111459.9780626695287.061141442640.65381345139678903122126DRYL
2021-04-15 12:00:06FORECAST2021204-8144.3637.4540.905188.245518666670.00110.09111.071.1611FF12.36202.36111459.617862237486.5210028653440.52808614754066903122126DRYL
2021-04-15 08:00:07FORECAST2021204-8140.8137.4139.11188.581773333330.00050.09051.071.1605FF8.81193.81111459.7359167717386.6978144498380.37565451704326902112124DRYL
2021-04-15 04:00:09FORECAST2021204-8140.7937.9639.375188.1146779166700.151.071.22FF8.79209.79111459.5718985360586.4522196726610.3748267929117902122125DRYL